Golden State Warriors

The Warriors stole what was a bizarre game 5 with an incredibly gutsy performance. Steph Curry continued his excellent Finals series so far, adding 31 points to go with 8 rebounds and 7 assists. Klay Thompson also provided a much-needed scoring boost, adding 26 points and 6 boards of his own. Kevin Durant looked good in his 12 minutes of action, putting up 11 quick points before suffering a disastrous Achilles injury. Draymond Green continues to fill up the box score, again falling just 2 assists shy of a triple-double.

Toronto Raptors

Being up by 6 points with 2:30 to go at home to win the NBA title and then failing to close it out is a mega gut punch. The Raptors offence was less efficient in game 5, although Kawhi still led the way with 26 points, 12 boards, and 6 assists. Kyle Lowry was one of the better Raptors on the night, putting up 18 points and 6 assists, despite an atrocious game-winner attempt late on. Both Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka continue to dominate on the interior, combining for 32 points and 14 boards.

Prediction: Raptors +4

In what I consider to be a coin-flip type of game, I think the value is on Toronto getting 4 points in this one. While I do think the fans will bring it for the last game at Oracle, the Raptors have been excellent on the road so far, winning a key road game in each series. Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the floor right now and I think Golden State will struggle to guard him, especially with KD’s injury. I also expect Toronto to shoot much better from deep in this one, having only managed 25% in game 5. This should be a tight affair that could go either way late, so I’ll happily take the security of 4 points with the Raptors.

Even on a relatively off night by his lofty standards, Kawhi Leonard was still very good in game 5. He was getting anything he wanted offensively down the stretch and looked set to carry Toronto to a title before a curious timeout by Nick Nurse. Both Andre Iguodala and Klay Thompson don’t appear to be at 100% after their injuries, also making Kawhi’s job on offence much easier. He has been consistent both at home and away throughout these playoffs and this series, going for 30+ in games 3 and 4 at Oracle. Especially if he gets 24 shots and 8 free throws again, I think a more efficient night takes him to 30 or more points.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors picked up a hugely impressive sweep of the two games in Oracle with a dominant 2^nd half in game 4. Kawhi Leonard was absolutely insane yet again, going for 36 points, 12 boards, and 4 steals. Serge Ibaka also provided some instant offence off the bench, going for 20 points in 22 minutes on 9/12 shooting. The rest of their starters have a ton of room for improvement, combining for 13/42 from the field. Their defence was also very stellar yet again, holding Golden State under 30% from 3.

Golden State Warriors

In what is looking like the last ever game at Oracle Arena, the Warriors just didn’t have what it took in game 3. Klay Thompson looked like the best Warrior in his return from injury, dropping 28 points on very efficient shooting. Steph Curry also added 27 points and 6 assists of his own, although he looked visibly gassed late due to his offensive load. Draymond Green continues to battle hard on the interior, falling just 1 rebound short of another triple-double. With the majority of the rotation injured already, Kevin Durant’s status for game 5 is still unknown at the time of writing.

Prediction: Raptors -3

The Raptors have taken full advantage of Golden State’s injuries, thoroughly outplaying them in the last 2 games. Even if Durant does return here, it’s hard to see him being back to his previous level after barely working out for the past month. Kawhi has been consistently the best player in this series and I expect another dominant display here as he claims the Finals MVP. Toronto knows this is their best chance to close this series out and as the more talented team, I think they should be laying more than 3 here. Golden State will definitely put up a strong fight, but I don’t see anything other than a Raptors win.

A theme throughout this series so far has been the dominance of this Raptors offence against the Warriors defence. They’re seemingly getting very good looks on almost every possession, and doing a solid job converting them. A lot of Golden State’s injuries are to their best defenders and I can see them struggling to contain Toronto again in this one. If it’s even somewhat close late, I also expect the Warriors to play the foul game, which should artificially increase Toronto’s total.

Golden State Warriors

After a sluggish game 1, the Warriors rebounded with an incredibly gritty road win in game 2. Draymond Green delivered another well-rounded performance, going for 17 points, 10 boards, and 9 assists. Steph Curry battled a virus to anchor the offence again, scoring 23 points to go with 4 assists and 3 steals. Klay Thompson also had an excellent start to the game, going for 25 points, 5 boards, and 5 assists before getting injured late. Andre Iguodala and DeMarcus Cousins also deserve immense credit for battling through injuries to deliver clutch performances.

Toronto Raptors

With all that the Warriors were dealing with, game 2 has to feel like a missed opportunity for Toronto. Kawhi was the only Raptor who showed up offensively, bullying his way to 34 points and 14 boards. Fred VanVleet also provided his usual bench spark, adding 17 points in his 38 minutes of action. They’ll need much better from Kyle Lowry going forward, with the veteran PG going just 4/11 from the field before fouling out in 28 minutes.

Prediction: Raptors +5.5

With just how many injuries the Warriors are facing right now, 5.5 seems to be a bit too many points to be giving up here. Klay Thompson suffered a bad hamstring injury late on and we’re still unsure whether Kevin Durant will return in this one. Kevon Looney also suffered a rough collarbone injury, while Iguodala, Cousins, and Curry still don’t seem to be 100%. The Raptors should also be the more motivated team here after losing at home in very disappointing fashion. There could definitely be some value on the moneyline at $3, but I’ll take the +5.5 given the uncertain injury situation.

After getting this bet right in game 2, I’m going back to the well here in game 3. One Warrior that still appears to be 100% is Draymond Green, who thoroughly outplayed Siakam last time out. He guarded Siakam the majority of the night, forcing him to go just 5/18 from the field in a relatively poor offensive display. I expect Lowry and Gasol to see more of the ball in game 3, meaning less opportunities for Siakam and a lower points total.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors delivered an excellent performance in game 1, winning by 9 points and setting the stage for an exciting series. Pascal Siakam was particularly impressive, dropping 32 points on 14/17 shooting to go along with 8 boards and 5 assists. Despite an inefficient night from the field, Kawhi Leonard was also solid with 23 points, 8 boards, and 5 assists himself. Marc Gasol manned the interior nicely with 20 points and 7 boards, while Fred VanVleet continued his strong bench play with a further 15 points.

Golden State Warriors

While the long layoff likely contributed to it, game 1 was one of the worst Warriors performances I’ve seen in this era. Steph Curry was the only Warrior who could get anything going offensively, dropping 34 points to go along with 5 boards and 5 assists. Despite managing a triple-double, Draymond Green shot just 2/9 from the field and was bullied by Pascal Siakam on the other end. Klay Thompson also delivered 21 solid points, but Golden State likely need even more from him given their injuries. Kevin Durant is all but out for this one, although Iguodala looks set to play despite a rough looking hamstring injury.

Prediction: Draymond Green Over 12.5 Points

Although I do like the Warriors as +2.5-point underdogs here, the Iguodala injury has me steering clear of a spread play in this one. Even though he scored just 10 points, Draymond had the ball in his hands a ton in round 1. The Raptors are aggressively trapping Steph Curry, making Draymond the de facto playmaker on offence. He is getting plenty of wide open looks, especially from deep where he has been quite effective this postseason. I expect a much more confident Draymond in game 2, particularly on offence, where he should go for 13 or more points.

Tying in with my above point, I think a better Draymond performance in this one will limit Siakam’s offensive output. Siakam had a poor end to the series against Philly and largely struggled throughout the Conference Finals. Although his game 1 performance was unbelievable, I don’t think this is sustainable and that this line adjustment is just too much. I can’t see Golden State being much worse defensively than they were in game 1 and it starts with locking up Pascal Siakam.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors will host their first NBA Finals games in franchise history after an impressive conference semis win over Milwaukee. Their defence was excellent in the closeout game 6, holding Milwaukee to just 40% from the field and 34% from 3. Kawhi Leonard led the way offensively, going off for 27 points, 17 boards, and 7 assists. Kyle Lowry also chipped in nicely with 17 points, 8 assists, and 5 boards, while Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet combined for a further 32.

Golden State Warriors

Despite trailing heavily in each of the last 3 games, Golden State ultimately managed what turned out to be a very comfortable sweep. Stephen Curry was outstanding all series, capping it off with a 37-point triple-double in the closeout game 4. Draymond Green wasn’t far behind, dropping 18 points, 14 boards, 11 assists, and 3 steals. Kevon Looney also stepped up nicely off the bench, adding a quick-fire 14 points and 12 boards of his own. Kevin Durant has been officially ruled out for game 1, with Andre Iguodala set to play and DeMarcus Cousins questionable.

Prediction: Warriors +1

This is a tough one to call but the early money on Toronto has me leaning the other way. The Warriors enter this series very well rested, which should help tremendously given their injury woes. I can see Toronto struggling to score against this elite defence, especially if Kawhi is still feeling the effects of his injury. Steph Curry is also set for the best Finals of his career and he should be very motivated in this one. While I think it’s a 1-1 split through the first 2, Golden State look decent value to claim the opener as underdogs.

One trend that has largely held up all season is backing the over in Warriors road games. They’ve consistently put up points on the road this season, with or without Kevin Durant. If Curry can keep up his excellent play from the Conference Finals, points shouldn’t be too hard to come by for the Warriors. Similarly, if these sides keep up their very fast pace, we should see a ton of opportunities for points.