Monday, October 28

Monday, October 28

Tim Hollis
OKC Thunder vs Golden State Warriors, 6:30 am
Thunder +1

Things couldn’t have started much worse for Golden State this season. They got absolutely destroyed as they opened their new arena, allowing 141 points in the process. OKC haven’t been great either, losing as a heavy favourite to Washington last time out.

I thought Golden State was overrated to start the season and I can see it being a while before the market corrects. Realistically, I don’t think they should be road favourites in this one.

Their already thin roster has been decimated further by injuries, particularly at the Center spot. Projected starter Cauley-Stein was already ruled out for this one, with fill-in starter Kevon Looney to follow after an injury last time out.

Draymond Green is also somewhat banged up after game 1, although he projects to play here. What this means is that Golden State has essentially no NBA-rotation calibre Centres active for this one. As such, I can see a solid big like Steven Adams absolutely dominating on the interior.

Similarly, their incredibly weak wing rotation was torn apart by the Clippers last time out. Admittedly a lot of that was against Kawhi, but guys like Gallinari and SGA have a huge matchup advantage here.

With their 2 Centres out, the Warriors have essentially 3 NBA calibre rotation players available here. While these are 3 previous All-Stars, I think they can only do so much with the lack of talent around them.

OKC are no world-beaters by any means, but they’re the much deeper team here with a strong home-court advantage. They’ve got the defensive length and versatility to at least contain Golden State’s explosive backcourt, which should prove decisive here.

Bet now: Thunder vs Warriors
Memphis Grizzlies vs Brooklyn Nets, 9 am
Grizzlies +5

The Nets have garnered a ton of betting action in both their matches so far, going 1-1 and failing to cover in either. Bettors are high on this team after their strong off-season, although I think they’re still overvalued in the market.

While Kyrie over D’Angelo is somewhat of an upgrade, this roster doesn’t look all that much better than last year. They likely win in the low 40’s this year, meaning they’ll probably find themselves 5-8 in the East.

With that in mind, I don’t see why they’re laying 5 in this spot. They were outplayed by Minnesota in game 1 and very nearly lost in New York last time out.

While they lack household names on this roster, the Grizzlies have a bunch of solid rotation players and should really be frisky this season. I particularly like their starting frontcourt, with Crowder, Jackson, and Valanciunas more than a match for their opposition.

They’ve also got a fairly competent second unit that should be able to step up and handle guys like Dinwiddie, Jordan, and Temple. Memphis represents one of the more underrated home court advantages in the league, a place where the Grizzlies tend to compete hard every night.

While it’s hard to back some of these lesser teams, often times they represent some of the best value on the market. The Nets are getting over two thirds of the action again for this one, which could see it going past 5. Ultimately, I’ll take Memphis and the points at anything 5 or above here.

Bet now: Grizzlies vs Nets

Sunday, October 27

Tim Hollis
Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic, 10 am
Magic -1.5

Both of these sides got off to impressive starts in game 1, managing relatively comfortable outright victories. Trae Young looked particularly good away at Detroit, putting the team on his back in a solid road win. Orlando destroyed Cleveland early on, before a relatively sloppy second half meant they got the win without a cover.

They match up in Atlanta tonight and I’m definitely liking Orlando at these relatively low odds. The Magic were one of the better sides in the Association to close last season and I believe they’re somewhat underrated in the market.

This is reflected in the early betting action, with Atlanta getting 63% of the tickets thus far. The average fan would definitely make the Hawks favourites in this one, but I think Orlando is significantly the better team.

They match up very well with this Atlanta side, particularly on the interior. Vucevic, Gordon, and Isaac is a very strong front court that should dominate Atlanta inside.

While I’m a fan of John Collins, he’s certainly no defensive stalwart and I can see him getting bothered on the other end by Orlando’s length. Alex Len also represents a noticeable downgrade from DeWayne Dedmon and should struggle against the sharp shooting Vucevic.

What doesn’t get much attention is just how good the Magic are defensively. Coach Steve Clifford remains somewhat underrated on that end of the floor and has a ton of talented defenders to work with here.

I think they can contain an Atlanta offence that relies so heavily on Trae Young. With no other competent PG on the roster, Atlanta need a big game from him every time out to stay in games.

On the other side, Atlanta appear to have even worse defensive personnel this year, after they were already one of the worst defensive sides last year. Orlando isn’t necessarily a potent offence, but guys like Vucevic and ‘Don’t Google Me’ Fournier should still eat.

I think the combination of solid defence and competent interior play gets the job done for Orlando here, especially at this low of a number.

Bet now: Hawks vs Magic
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers, 11 am
Cavs +5.5

I’ll preface this by saying that taking the Cavs is one of the harder bets in all of the NBA right now, especially after Charlotte yesterday. That said, often the toughest bets end up being the most profitable in the long term.

We had some success fading Indiana in their season-opener, where they lost outright to Detroit as a 7.5-point favourite. This wasn’t necessarily surprising to me as I believe they’ve been overrated all off-season.

They have a ton of new faces that are still bedding in and learning to play together. With Oladipo out, the supporting cast looks worse than the group that went roughly .500 without him last year.

I have my doubts about the Sabonis/Turner frontcourt and can see them struggling again here. With his range and shooting ability, Kevin Love is simply a nightmare matchup for Sabonis.

He should take him out of the paint and provide some driving opportunities for young Guards in Garland and Sexton. When combined with Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Junior, Cleveland should be able to match up well on the interior here.

I also think there is some line value on the Cavs here. While they were woeful against Orlando, they still managed a cover against a team that is probably top 6 in the conference.

Getting 5.5 points at home means they’d be getting 8.5 on a neutral court and 11.5 if this were in Indiana. Especially since the Pacers don’t have a real star, I’m not sure what they’ve done to justify laying these numbers.

I expect new coach John Beilein to maximize what he gets out of this group, starting in a winnable home fixture. Through key numbers like 3 and 5, I’ll take the home dog here in a game that could go either way.

Bet now: Cavs vs Pacers

Saturday, October 26

Tim Hollis
Charlotte Hornets vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 am
Hornets +5.5

One thing I like about the bigger NBA slates is that we have games like this that tend to fly under the radar. While these aren’t the two most exciting teams in the Association, this match looks great from a betting perspective.

Both sides defied the odds in their opening games, both managing outright 1-point wins as underdogs. They were incredibly high-scoring games offensively, with over 500 combined points between the two.

While Charlotte are still facing some criticism, I think the public has placed too much emphasis on Minnesota’s win over Brooklyn. Coming into the season, I wasn’t sure Minnesota would be a 5.5 point road favourite over anyone.

Think about this for a second. With home court typically accounting for 3 points, the Wolves would be an 8.5-point favourite on a neutral and an 11.5-point favourite at home.

This is a team notorious for playing to their level of competition, which can be both a positive and a negative. They tend to be a good side to back against some of the premier teams, yet they tend to struggle at the line against poorer sides.

After a ton of criticism this off-season, I think the Hornets are actually one of the more underrated teams in the Association. Although they lost Kemba Walker, they are still bringing back the nucleus of a 39-win team.

As good as Walker is, I think a 16-win drop in their season win total is unjustified and screams of a negative public perception. PJ Washington was excellent in his NBA debut, while Dwayne Bacon and Devonte Graham look like promising young Guards. Poorer sides tend to play better at home and I can definitely see Charlotte being frisky.

I also like the chance to fade the public here, with over two thirds of bettors liking Minnesota so far. For me, this line is probably 2-3 points so high and I love that it goes through the key numbers of 3 and 5. They’re definitely an ugly duckling team, but I’ll gladly take Charlotte plus the 5.5 points here.

Bet now: Hornets vs Wolves
Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers, 1 pm
Kings +2

The Kings were one of the more heavily bet teams on Thursday, ultimately costing bettors with a disastrous display against the Suns. The game was actually rather even in most metrics, with turnovers being the absolute killer.

A new-look Portland side opened the season at home to Denver, leading early on before fading late. Bettors are placing a ton of trust in them here, giving the Blazers 71% of the action so far.

This is another scenario where I’m very keen to fade the public and take the well-priced home underdog. Sacramento have an underrated home court advantage and I expect them to build on the competency they showed at home last season.

They’ve added a few new faces over the off-season and look like a deeper and more complete team now. De’Aaron Fox is poised to take a big step forward this season, which could really vault them into playoff contention.

Portland have also undergone a ton of changes and I can’t say I’m a huge fan of them. While I’m sure they were frustrating for Blazers fans at times, Aminu and Harkless were valuable players key to this side’s success.

Without them, they’ve got no real wing depth and will likely have to play two traditional bigs for most of the game. That’s an awful position to be in against a team like Sacramento, who loves to push the pace at every opportunity. I can see them dominating this game in transition, especially if Portland aren’t efficient offensively.

The Kings still appear largely underrated by the general public, while I think this new-look Blazers side will take some time to mesh. With all the action on Portland, I can see the current +2 moving to at least 2.5 or 3. Either way, I think Sacramento definitely has a shot at the outright upset here.

Bet now: Kings vs Blazers

Friday, October 25

Tim Hollis
Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks, 11 am
Bucks +2

The first Friday of the NBA season means only one thing; an epic TNT double-header. This is certainly the case this year, starting with a battle between two title contenders in Houston.

The Rockets had a fairly high-profile off-season, trading Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook. This figures to make them a slightly better regular season team, largely due to Russ’ better durability.

Punters certainly like their chances here, with 66% of you taking Houston laying 2 points in this spot. I had success with two contrarian underdog winners yesterday and I plan on following the same path with this one.

First and foremost, I have a ton of concerns about this Houston team, particularly this early against a team of Milwaukee’s calibre. I’m not sure Westbrook and Harden are a great fit, largely due to Russ’ inefficiency and poor shooting.

He’ll also require more of the ball, taking it out of Harden’s hands on a more frequent basis. This should make them less efficient and really limit their offensive ceiling this season.

They’ve also got an extremely thin roster, which really wasn’t helped by Gerald Green’s season-ending injury. While their starting five is still solid, they really lack capable and consistent bench production.

There is also a huge lack of continuity on their coaching staff, with the majority of assistants leaving in the off-season. Mike D’Antoni also enters the year as a lame duck coach and could easily be fired early if things don’t go to plan.

Compare that to a Milwaukee side that is bringing back most of the same cats that got them to the league’s best record last season. They’ve got an elite coaching staff, competent two-way players and an absolute superstar in Giannis.

I also think they match up tremendously well with this Houston side. PJ Tucker figures to get the assignment guarding Giannis, but I think he lacks the speed and athleticism to really contain him.

On the flipside, guys like Bledsoe, Mathews, and Middleton are very capable wing defenders that should make life difficult on Harden. Brook Lopez’ ability from 3 should drive Capela out of the lane, opening up more driving opportunities for Giannis.

Out of these two sides, I’m definitely more trusting in Milwaukee to start the season. They’ve got a lot more continuity, a deeper roster, and are coming off an outstanding road season.

Going against the public has been profitable to start this season and I can see this trend continuing a while longer. With that in mind, Milwaukee and the points is the logical play in this spot.

Bet now: Rockets vs Bucks
Golden State Warriors vs LA Clippers, 1:30 pm
Clippers -1.5

The Warriors are one of the more difficult teams to gauge in the association coming into this season. They’ll christen the new Chase Center here against the team they probably match up the worst against.

The Clippers looked outstanding to start the season and would’ve won by more if not for a great shooting night from Danny Green. They are currently 1.5-point favourites in this match-up, with the betting action evenly split.

The line actually opened Clippers +1, which I loved upon first view. A 2.5-point movement makes me like this slightly less, although I still expect them to win and cover here.

Without Klay Thompson, Golden State just has no credible wing players in their rotation. If lack of wing depth is your main problem, the last team you want to face is the Clippers. Guys like Glenn Robinson III, Jacob Evans, and Eric Paschall just can’t hang with the likes of Kawhi and Mo Harkless.

Injuries at the Center spot also mean that the Warriors are fairly weak on the interior. Willie Cauley-Stein has already been ruled out, with Kevon Looney a game time decision. While the Clippers are relatively weak on the inside, they probably have the matchup edge against the depleted Warriors.

Their second unit should also be able to rip the Warriors to shreds here. Lou and Trez carved up the Lakers bench on Wednesday, and Golden State’s second unit is even worse.

Without big nights from Steph Curry and D’Angelo Russell, I just don’t see Golden State being competitive here. While Steph should still get his, the Clippers have a bevy of wing defenders that will certainly make life difficult.

Ultimately, the Clippers are the deeper and more talented side that should be energized after a big win on Wednesday. I don’t foresee a huge blowout here, but they should cover the -1.5 relatively comfortably.

Bet now: Warriors vs Clippers

Thursday, October 24

Tim Hollis
Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons, 10 am
Pistons +8

With the first day where most teams in the league are playing, I always try to look for value underdogs. I believe I’ve identified one here in Detroit, with the public heavily on Indiana here.

Despite starting last season impressively, Indiana just weren’t the same team without Victor Oladipo. They unsurprisingly struggled offensively and were roughly .500 over the last stretch of the season.

This is also a very different group to the one we saw occupy a top 4 seed for most of last season. Not only is Oladipo out until at least 2020, this team has also lost key pieces in Bogdanovic, Young, and Collison.

I think guys like Brogdon, Warren, and Lamb could prove to be good additions in the future, but they’ll definitely take time to gel. They’ve also heavily invested in the Sabonis/Turner frontcourt, which I’m not necessarily a fan of.

They’re an awful defensive duo and could really struggle against the bruising Detroit frontcourt. Sabonis looks particularly vulnerable on that end of the floor and I can see Indiana’s starters getting out to some early deficits this season.

Compare that to a Detroit side that is largely underrated by the general public. I initially liked them before Blake’s injury, but believe the extra 3 points is definitely fair. The additions of Derrick Rose and Tony Snell are both also quite useful and I expect them to round out this rotation nicely.

Combine that with Dwayne Casey, who has proven to be one of the better regular season coaches in the Association. He works his side fairly hard during training camp and they tend to start the season well as a result.

Especially without Oladipo, I actually think Detroit is the slightly better of these two sides. Even factoring in home court, I don’t think Indiana should be favoured by more than 2 points here.

The line has now moved to Detroit +8 (after the Blake injury), which goes through the key numbers of 5 and 7 if this gets into the free-throw game late. Add that with the line value and contrarian angle and Detroit are a very appealing play on the real opening day.

Bet now: Pacers vs Pistons
Brooklyn Nets vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:30 am
Wolves +5.5

After a stellar off-season, I’m not surprised to see a ton of positive buzz surrounding Brooklyn. Kyrie at Point Guard is an upgrade over D’Angelo and Kevin Durant will make this squad a real contender out East.

That said, I think they’re probably another overrated team going into this season. This is also a squad with a ton of new faces that will certainly take some time to bed in.

As mentioned in the Detroit pick, the opening day is a great time to look for the ugly duckling that most fans are dismissing. Few teams fit that bill more than the ever-disappointing Minnesota Timberwolves.

And I can understand why. Few things are more disappointing than having Andrew Wiggins brick your money away down the stretch.

With many punters actively avoiding the Wolves, I can see them covering a lot of spreads to start this season. I believe their win total was way too low in the off-season and can see them around 40 wins in 2019-20.

Ryan Saunders looks like a promising young coach who can build a sustainably competitive team. In Karl Anthony Towns, he has one of the best young big men in the league to do that with.

I’m also a huge fan of some of the role players they added this off-season. Guys like Jordan Bell, Jake Layman, and Shabazz Napier all add quality depth to this side. I think they’ll play with a ton of pace and energy, which will really surprise a lot of teams.

With a few new faces in key roles, the Nets could struggle out of the gate. They’ll need to establish a hierarchy on that squad and will take some time to learn how to play together.

Especially on opening day, I think the 5.5 points currently on offer is just too much for Minnesota. They’re an underrated team with good coaching, a young star, and energetic role players.

That is a very effective combination against a team like Brooklyn and I see this being fairly close. By all means sprinkle some on the money line, but take this +5.5 for some extra insurance.

Bet now: Nets vs Wolves

Wednesday, October 23

Tim Hollis
Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans, 11 am
Raptors -6

The reigning NBA champions get to open the season at home against an upstart squad that just added a potential superstar. Ring night is always a very emotional night and should give the home team an added edge here.

All off-season, the Raptors have heard about how they won’t be the same team this season without Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. While there are elements of truth to that, I think they’ve still got a real shot at a top 4 seed this season.

This team is also an excellent candidate for the Ewing theory, where a team actually performs better in the short term without their best player. They looked very capable last season without Kawhi and will look to prove that again here.

Toronto still boasts a fairly deep roster without any real weaknesses. Siakam and Lowry signed extensions in the off-season, while Gasol and Ibaka combine for a formidable Spanish frontcourt.

I’m also a huge fan of coach Nick Nurse and expect him to prove himself to be among the league’s best this season. He was a part of the coaching staff during the excellent Dwayne Casey era and only built on that in 2018-19.

Compare that to a New Orleans side that has barely any continuity coming into this season. While the AD trade landed them a bevy of assets, I expect these guys to take some time to settle in.

#1 overall pick Zion Williamson is also out for this one, putting their frontcourt rotation in a state of flux. They don’t match up well with Toronto on the interior and can’t really take advantage of their lack of wing depth either.

They’ve been a poor road side under Alvin Gentry, while this Raptors side continues to pile up an outstanding home record. I think 6 points is a relatively fair line here, although Toronto are the better and more motivated side.

Ring night will be hugely emotional, and they’ll look to silence the media narrative in front of a national audience. I think Toronto looks in control here from start to finish, ultimately covering this 6-point line with ease.

Bet now: Raptors vs Pelicans
LA Clippers vs LA Lakers, 1:30 pm
Lakers -1.5

As soon as the Kawhi and PG acquisitions were announced, this game was destined to be the late game on opening night. They’ll have a fascinating rivalry all season, with many casual observers picking them as the two best sides.

Both sides have limited continuity coming into this season and will be relying on a ton of new faces. The Lakers also have a new man on the bench, with Frank Vogel becoming a somewhat surprising hire.

With Paul George out for this one, I think the Lakers can really make a statement and win this on opening night. While I don’t like siding with the majority this early, there are definitely a few things in the Lakers’ favour here.

First and foremost, Anthony Davis represents a matchup nightmare for this Clippers side. I expect them to add a quality big during the season, but they’re definitely light for now.

Although they aren’t elite options, both JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard should prove a force on the offensive glass. This could prove especially effective against Montrezl Harrell and nullify the Clippers’ second unit.

I also think this is a huge season for LeBron and he gets the chance to really control the narrative here. After all of his consecutive Finals appearances, this is one of the first seasons in recent memory where he is well-rested coming in.

Paul George’s injury is also huge here as it lessens the defensive load on LeBron. I expect Danny Green to get the Kawhi assignment defensively, allowing LeBron to carry the offence.

The Clippers will definitely be adjusting on the fly to start with and the matchups just don’t favour them here. This is especially true in the second unit, where I believe that Bradley and KCP can competently limit Lou Williams.

Ultimately, I expect a relatively close Lakers win and a ton of plaudits for Anthony Davis after a strong display. Lakers -1.5 looks like a strong bet to start off with, as do most of the AD props on the market.

Bet now: Clippers vs Lakers

NBA Rookie of the Year: Tips & Preview

Tim Hollis

The NBA Rookie of the Year race always gets a ton of buzz and this year appears to be no exception. After a phenomenal season at Duke saw him go #1 overall, it’s no surprise to see Zion as the overwhelming $1.60 favourite. Second overall pick Ja Morant also looks a good shot at $5, while the new Knicks hope RJ Barrett is just behind at $6. I’ll go through each of these 3 men in detail, as well as a $21 roughie that has a good outside chance.

Zion Williamson $1.60

Zion is one of the bigger Rookie of the Year favourites we’ve seen in recent years and for good reason. He possesses truly elite athleticism, averaging 22.6 points on an outstanding 68% shooting at Duke last year. He joins a relatively good situation in New Orleans, with a slew of competent Guards that get him the ball. The downside of this is that he won’t have the ball in his hands as much as some of his fellow rookies. At 285 pounds, his frame may not be able to handle the rigours of the NBA regular season. While he is the most likely to win the award, I’m not sure the $1.60 currently on offer is the best value.

Bet now: NBA Rookie of the Year
Ja Morant $5

Widely considered the best Guard in this class, Grizzlies fans were no doubt ecstatic to win the #2 pick and land Ja. He put up elite numbers last season, averaging 24.5 points and 10 assists at Murray State. The Mike Conley trade also opens up a ton of opportunities for him as he should have the ball in his hands most of the time. On the flipside, Division 2 College ball doesn’t really do a great job of preparing you for the NBA. Point Guard is arguably the most competitive position in the Association, and he could be in for a steep learning curve. That said, if he puts up even decent numbers this year, I think the $5 on offer is great value.

RJ Barrett $6

Having been highly touted throughout his high school career, RJ Barrett was expected to tear up college basketball last season. He put up strong numbers of 22.6 points, 7.6 boards, and 4.3 assists although he was relatively inefficient in doing so. The Knicks are perpetually looking for a saviour, so his path to the award is relatively clear. If he can put up some solid numbers and the Knicks look much better, it could be his to lose. Unfortunately, the roster construction doesn’t help him all that much, with a real log jam at the Forward position. The Knicks could definitely be a circus this season, making it tough to evaluate him. Based on early observations, I have to like Zion and Ja more at their respective prices.

Darius Garland $21

Despite the three men above taking the lion’s share of the action, I do kind of like Garland as a $21 roughie. He is a speedy combo guard with strong offensive creation skills and a great outside shot. The Rookie of the Year award tends to favour playmaking Guards, of which Garland is second in the picking order behind Ja. Boeheim could also prove to be an upgrade at Coach and someone who can get the most out of his young players. Admittedly, Cleveland aren’t expected to be great this season and he’ll likely have to share a backcourt role with Sexton. I expect him to hit the ground running this season, meaning that the $21 should come in a bit, even if he doesn’t win the award.

Bet now: NBA Rookie of the Year

NBA Season Win Totals: Tips & Preview

Tim Hollis

The NBA season win totals are always one of the more intriguing futures markets that provide a great gauge for teams ahead of the season. If you can look through some of the media narratives, there are regularly some great value bets on offer. I think that’s the case again this season, identifying 5 in particular where I see some value. I’ll go through all 5 of these, explaining my rationale for each.

Pacers Under 46.5 Wins

The Pacers fought valiantly last regular season, although they were outclassed in the 4-5 matchup with Boston. They fell off a cliff offensively without Victor Oladipo and struggled to create against most NBA defences. Oladipo’s injury is a huge reason for this under play as I expect him to miss at least half the season. This team also lost a ton of key players from last season, with Young, Bogdanovic, and Collison no longer playing a role. They still probably make the playoffs this season, although I think 47 or more wins is just slightly too much.

Warriors Under 47.5 Wins

While they’ve enjoyed unprecedented success over the last 5 seasons, I get the feeling this could be a tough one for Golden State. With Durant and Iguodala gone, and Klay out most of the year, they’ve got a giant hole on the wing. They also play in the hugely competitive Western Conference, where there just aren’t many easy wins on the schedule. The D’Angelo sign and trade also contains a somewhat negative incentive, with their draft pick being only top 20 protected this season. Given how top-heavy this team is, they’re also very susceptible to injuries over a gruelling 82-game season. They could also sneak into the playoffs, but I think plus money on under 47.5 is too good to ignore.

Bet now: NBA Season Win Totals
Hornets Over 23.5 Wins

The Hornets have gotten a ton of negative press this off-season for their handling of the Kemba Walker situation, and rightfully so. That said, I think the media is making this team out to be worse than they really are, providing some value at 23.5 wins at even money. Although it was an overpay, I still expect Rosier to provide at least respectable Point Guard play. They still have a ton of returning players from their 39-win nucleus last season, including Zeller, Batum, Monk, and Williams. Combine that with a truly dreadful Eastern Conference and I think they’ll just be competent enough to eclipse this low total.

Knicks Under 27.5 Wins

One of my favourite bets in recent seasons has been the under on the Knicks win total. Knicks fans are a loyal and optimistic bunch that usually overinflate this line with their willingness to bet it. Their roster construction this season is rather confusing, with a bunch of Power Forwards and minimal Guard depth. I don’t see an 11-win improvement on their 17 wins last season and still think that they’re incentivised to go for the best draft pick possible. While I really liked it at the 29.5 opener, 27.5 still has more than enough value for me to comfortably play this.

Pistons Over 36.5 Wins

Detroit were a solid and competitive team last year that ultimately finished up 41-41. They were disastrously poor without Blake Griffin, fading down the stretch and ultimately getting swept by Milwaukee. As he showed in Toronto, Dwayne Casey is a quality coach in this league that knows how to pick up wins. I particularly like their starting frontcourt and think the additions of Derrick Rose, Tony Snell, and Markieff Morris round out their rotation nicely. They’re a team that regularly beats the opponents that they should beat, which is vital in a weak East. As long as they remain healthy, I really like the look of this over 36.5.

Bet now: NBA Season Win Totals

2019/20 NBA Title – Tips & Preview

Tim Hollis

After a thrilling and unpredictable off-season, the 2019-20 NBA title race is as wide open as it’s been in quite some time. The Clippers currently open as the $4.25 favourite, followed by their crosstown rival Lakers at $5. Milwaukee headline the East at healthy $7 odds, with the Sixers just behind them at $8. We’ll take a look at the top 5 NBA title contenders this season and identify where the value lies.

LA Clippers $4.25

The Clippers swung for the fences this off-season, mortgaging the future to add two top players in Kawhi and PG. Despite being impressive additions, both of these men are battling injury issues and likely won’t play more than 65 games this season. The Clips are still a relatively deep team, with guys like Beverley, Shamet, Harrell, Williams, and Harkless all set to contribute. They appear to be the best side in the NBA on paper, although injuries will be a real issue all season. The $4.25 currently on offer looks tasty and I can see it increasing if they struggle to start with.

LA Lakers $5

The Lakers also made a huge splash this off-season, giving up a ton of assets to add star big Anthony Davis. Him and LeBron are a star duo that can definitely hang with their crosstown rivals. An issue I can see with this team is that they’re quite top heavy, without great complimentary pieces. They’ll struggle mightily if LeBron or AD get injured, but I still see them being thereabouts this post-season. I think $5 at this stage is probably inflated a bit, although I expect this to increase throughout the season.

Bet now: NBA Title
Milwaukee Bucks $7

Fresh off of the NBA’s best regular season record, Milwaukee are expected to have a similarly dominant season this year. They bring back stud MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and several complimentary role players. The loss of Malcom Brogdon is somewhat of a concern, although Wes Matthews is a solid pickup at the minimum. The Eastern Conference looks especially awful this season, meaning they’ve got a great shot at a top 2 seed. As one of the most likely teams to make the NBA Finals, I think the $7 currently on offer is great value. If they get off to the great start that I’m expecting, I only see this decreasing throughout the season.

Philadelphia 76ers $8

Another team that changed significantly this off-season, fans are bullish on the Sixers this season. Out go veterans Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick, with Al Horford and Josh Richardson coming in. Although they’re slightly deeper this season, they still have a fair few players that aren’t NBA rotation calendar. They benefit hugely from a very weak Eastern Conference and look likely to match up with Milwaukee in the East Finals. Should they make it to that stage healthy, the $8 currently on offer looks very appealing.

Houston Rockets $9

Houston also spiced things up this season, ending the Chris Paul and James Harden partnership by trading the former for Russell Westbrook. While it is probably a slight upgrade, I’m not sure this team matches up well with some of the top contenders in each conference. They lack a quality wing defender and have a thin bench that could get exposed if injuries pile up. That said, the offensive output from their starting five is nearly unmatched across the Association. While I don’t love it, the $9 on offer is probably a fair price.

Bet now: NBA Title

2019-20 NBA MVP – Tips & Preview

Tim Hollis

The NBA MVP award is always one of the most hotly contested and this year is no exception. 2018-19 MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo opens as the favourite this year, currently paying $4. 2-time MVP Steph Curry is second at $6, followed by James Harden at $8 and new Laker Anthony Davis at $10. We’ll go through each of the top 5 contenders for the award and identify where the value lies.

Giannis Antetokounmpo $4

One of the most deserving MVP’s in recent memory, Giannis put up 28 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 6 assists on a 60-win team last year. He is elite on both ends of the floor and looks set to improve even more this season aged 24. What works in his favour the most is that he is considered the lone star on one of the league’s best teams. LeBron and AD could effectively cancel each other out, as could Westbrook and Harden and PG and Kawhi. The Bucks look on pace to be the #1 seed in the East again this year and I don’t see this $4 lasting too long into the season.

Steph Curry $6

A former 2-time MVP, the Warriors are definitely Steph’s team this season with KD gone and Klay out injured. The offence will run through him all season and I see him leading the league in scoring when healthy. Having failed to reach 70 games in the last two seasons, I’m not sure Steph has the durability for another MVP campaign. A lack of depth means the Warriors likely won’t enjoy the same team success, also hurting his chances. The $6 on offer is definitely reasonable should he stay healthy, although that’s a gamble given his recent history.

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James Harden $8

Harden has been well in the MVP conversation for at least the last half decade. He won the award in a breakthrough 2017-18 campaign, only bettering his stats to average over 36 points last season. Although he is now 30 years of age, I still see Harden in the upper echelon of NBA players. However, I think the acquisition of Russell Westbrook will dramatically decrease his usage rate, leading to a worse offensive output. Given the other options on the board, I’d opt to stay clear of Harden at this stage.

Anthony Davis $10

Davis has gotten MVP buzz in recent seasons, although the small New Orleans market and relatively poor team worked against him. Now in the prestigious LA market, he is already being hyped as an MVP option by LeBron. If the Lakers improve significantly and AD puts up some gaudy numbers, he does have a real shot at the award. That said, it’s very difficult for a LeBron teammate to win the MVP and I can see their games overlapping somewhat. I don’t hate the $10 on offer, although Giannis and Steph still look more appealing to me.

Joel Embiid $17

The Sixers are thought of as a lock to reach at least the Conference Finals and Embiid is comfortably their best player. He was outstanding last season, putting up 27.5 points to go along with 13.6 rebounds. That said, he likely won’t play enough games to really stand out in the MVP race. He played a career-high of 64 last season and I don’t see him really topping that. If you can see him playing 75 games this season, the $17 on offer is an absolute steal.

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