After receiving a ton of hype over the off-season, the Kings have been a bit of a letdown in 2019-20. They lost each of their first 5 games, although they’ve showed some promise in consecutive wins.

The defending champion Raptors have had a solid start to the campaign, managing 4 wins in their first 6. They’re receiving the lion’s share of the bets for this one so far, getting over 60% of the action laying 8.5 points.

While most are unsure why the Kings have struggled so much thus far, I think there’s actually a very logical explanation. They had a pre-season sojourn to India against the Pacers, one which really hampered their preparations for this season.

Especially with new coach Luke Walton, they simply didn’t have enough practice time to fully grasp his system. This is a side that also thrives in transition, but they’ve been playing fatigued after such a gruelling trip.

Although they’ve burned me a few times this season, I’ve seen some great signs from this side in recent games. They managed a frisky win at home to Utah, before blowing the doors off New York last time out. Their young backcourt has looked particularly good, driving the transition game that made this side so dynamic last season.

Compare that to a Raptors side that doesn’t really have any great wins this season. They’ve managed wins over the Pelicans (OT), Bulls, Magic, and Pistons; losing to Boston and Milwaukee in between.

This tells me that they’re a relatively predictable side. They’ll beat the dregs of this league but struggle against most of the better sides.

I think Sacramento are a step up from some of their opponents thus far and that they really appear to be finding form. A competitive game is likely in store here, so I’ll gladly take the frisky Kings getting a healthy 8.5 points.

After an array of off-season moves, Utah have gotten off to a relatively middling 4-3 start. Philly have also really impressed, winning their first 5 before a loss to Phoenix last time out.

Despite the not-so-great record, Utah are still a perfect 3-0 at home. They consistently have one of the best home court advantages in the Association, largely due to the altitude and stadium design.

They’re still getting used to playing with each other, but their defence has been very strong thus far. Given the bevy of offensive weapons at their disposal, it’s only a matter of time before they improve on that end.

While Philly’s 5-1 record is certainly impressive, they’ve definitely been a bit of a paper tiger so far. They’re yet to face a team of Utah’s quality, with an opening-day win over Boston probably their best this season.

They then lost to a pedestrian Suns side last time out, admittedly without Joel Embiid. That said, if he wants to be considered one of the best in the game, Ben Simmons needs more than 6 points in a game like that.

Although Philly are probably the better of these two sides, I think Utah’s excellent home court advantage gives them the edge here. Fatigue could also play a factor here, with this being Philly’s 3^rd game on a road swing.

I can see both sides struggling offensively, but the creativity of Utah’s guards probably wins them this one. Currently laying 2 points, this is certainly a value spot for one of the NBA’s best home sides.

The play at this number presumes that Trae Young is indeed playing in this one, which seems to be the consensus among Hawks beat writers. Should he be ruled out, I’d look to some other games for more value.

The Spurs have looked relatively impressive so far, sitting 4-2 and comfortably in the West playoff spaces. Atlanta have slipped without Young and are now just 2-3 on the season.

San Antonio are getting the lion’s share of the action thus far, with 77% of the early action coming in on the Spurs. I like the contrarian angle and think that this looks like another perfect candidate.

The Spurs look like somewhat of a paper tiger so far, sitting 4-2 largely due to an easy early schedule. They’ve managed wins over the Knicks, Wizards, and injury-plagued Warriors, and had chances to lose all 3 games.

Compare that to an Atlanta side that looked very impressive before Trae Young’s injury. They covered all 3 games and ran the 5-0 Sixers very close.

With no solid backup Point Guard on the roster, Atlanta’s offence has unsurprisingly looked poor of late. They’ve also been dealing with an injury to young big John Collins, who’s formed an impressive duo with Young.

I don’t think the Spurs are anything special and it isn’t a great spot for them on the first game of this road trip. Assuming Young comes back here, getting Atlanta through the key number of 3 is definitely solid value.

This is a matchup between two sides that haven’t really impressed so far. Both of them are 2-4 and are currently on the outside of the playoff race.

The difference is their respective performance against the spread. OKC has lined punter’s wallets with a 4-2 record, while Orlando has gone a relatively poor 1-4-1. This probably explains the betting action so far, with nearly 70% of early money coming in on OKC.

I think this grossly underrates the Magic and can’t see why they’re 4 point underdogs in this one. Assuming 3 points for home field, this tells us that OKC is actually a slightly better team than Orlando.

If we refer back to the pre-season win totals, Orlando came in at 42.5, compared to just 31.5 from Minnesota. Given that neither side has been that impressive so far, I’m not sure how market perception can flip this much through 6 games.

The Magic have had a relatively tough schedule so far and don’t really have any egregious losses. OKC lost to an atrocious Washington side, and have come up short in the clutch against Utah, Houston, and Portland.

All of Orlando’s main guys are healthy for this one, while OKC are dealing with some injuries to key players. Andre Roberson has been ruled out for this one, while Nerlens Noel and Steven Adams are both questionable.

This could lead to some rotation issues among their bigs, which isn’t ideal against a Vucevic, Gordon, and Isaac frontcourt. I also think Orlando has the coaching edge here, with Steve Clifford routinely winning these types of games.

Ultimately, this is a line value spot that ties in nicely with our contrarian angle. I think Orlando is the slightly better of these two sides and are good value at either of the +3.5 or +4 lines currently readily available.

Despite a ton of hype this off-season, Houston haven’t started the season all that well. They’ve lost their last two games and find themselves 3-3 thus far. The Grizzlies have been rather poor as expected, currently sitting at 1-4.

A large part of Houston’s struggles this season has been their atrocious defence. This has been especially awful on the road, where they’ve allowed at least 123 points in their last 3 games.

With their games trending so much toward the over of late, I’m actually starting to see some value on the under. The total is currently sitting at 234 points, which I could see rising before tip-off.

That said, I think this is just too many points in this spot. Let’s not forget that Houston are on a back-to-back here with a relatively thin rotation to begin with.

They’ve also received a ton of negative press for their poor defence of late. I expect all this talk to motivate guys like Harden and Westbrook, which should in turn lead to better defence all around.

Memphis games haven’t been all that high scoring, only eclipsing this 234 number during an overtime game with Brooklyn. Although they play at a faster pace this year, their lack of perimeter offence makes it difficult to pile on the points. Consider all of these factors and it’s very tough for me to ignore under 234 here.

The Bucks haven’t been great this season, although they still sit at a decent 2-4 so far. They had some very solid weekend results, negotiating difficult tilts with Orlando and Toronto. Minnesota have raced out to an impressive 4-1 start, although star big man Karl Anthony Towns is suspended for this one.

The Wolves are currently getting 6 points at home and punters are all over it. They’ve received 60% of the action so far and I can potentially see a 5.5 line before tip-off.

While they’ve been impressive thus far, so much of this is down to elite play from KAT. They blew out Washington without him, but the Bucks are a completely different beast.

With their length and athleticism on the perimeter, I can see them containing guys like Wiggins and Covington with ease. I also think Giannis matches up very well with this team and can see him dictating the game here.

Minnesota have been shooting the lights out from 3, which is a large reason for their early success. Without the offensive threat of KAT, I just don’t see how they get enough consistent offence here.

While it may be their third game in four nights, this is a deep Milwaukee side that consistently rolls inferior teams on the road. I still see them as one of the best teams in the league and this is the type of game where they prove that.

Despite a relatively easy start to the campaign, the Pacers haven’t really impressed en route to a 2-3 record. The exact same thing can be said for Chicago, who are only 2-4 despite an absolute cake walk of a schedule.

That said, I think they look a value bet as road underdogs in this one. The already banged-up Pacers are facing even more injuries here, with Myles Turner out and Domantas Sabonis a game-time decision.

This leaves them incredibly thin on the interior, against a Detroit team that boasts two solid bigs in Markkanen and Carter. Zach LaVine has also shown flashes offensively of late, while Satoransky, Young, and Porter are all solid rotational veterans.

Money has been flying in on the Pacers here, with 77% of punters liking them at the current number. I’d presume most of them aren’t aware of the injury report, making Chicago heavily undervalued here.

Even if Sabonis does end up playing, I’d predict this is somewhat of a toss-up. Neither side has been impressive thus far and they could both be in for lean years.

Getting 4 points, I’ll take the healthier and well-rested Bulls here, defying public sentiment in the process.

The Cavs have been quietly respectable this year, going 3-2 ATS and 2-3 straight up. They’ve looked especially good at home, winning both games as outright underdogs.

Their frontcourt keeps them competitive most nights, with both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson providing a solid interior presence. Sophomore Guard Collin Sexton has looked good to start the campaign, as has former Laker favourite Jordan Clarkson.

Dallas has also looked decent thus far, going 3-2 and appearing competitive in all 5 matches so far. They had a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Lakers last time out, in large part due to poor officiating.

Heading from such a high-profile home game to a road trip in Cleveland means there could be somewhat of a flat spot here. Porzingis will have his hands full against the Cleveland bigs, meaning it’ll be all on Doncic’s shoulders yet again.

Doncic himself is listed at day-to-day on the injury report, requiring stitches after the game with the Lakers. If he isn’t 100%, I’m not sure they’ve got enough offence to dominate this frisky Cleveland side on the road.

A ton of money has been coming in on Dallas, with 81% of bettors taking the Mavericks -5 thus far. This makes me think we could get even better value closer to tip-off.

The Nets looked much better yesterday, getting their first win of the season in Brooklyn. Led by the competent play of Kyrie Irving, I think this could really be a turning point for this side going forward.

The public is also all over Brooklyn in this spot, with 64% of punters liking them -1.5 points. While this does give me some concern, I think the Nets have captured some momentum that will stay with them for a while.

Without Blake Griffin, the Pistons are undoubtedly a bottom 10 team in the NBA. His absence was compounded by the loss of Blake Griffin, ensuring Detroit are without their two best players.

While Andre Drummond is solid on the interior, fellow starters Markieff Morris, Tony Snell, Luke Kennard, and Tim Frazier just aren’t up to it. I think they get comfortably outplayed to start with and need big games from guys like Rose and Galloway to stay competitive.

Both sides are on a back-to-back here, with Detroit travelling from Chicago and the Nets coming in from Brooklyn. Given their thin rotation, Detroit is probably the more fatigued side in this spot, even in a home game.

Kyrie is also likely to have an absolute field day in this one, with neither Tim Frazier or Luke Kennard able to competently guard him. Jarrett Allen is a much better fit than DeAndre Jordan in the starting lineup and I see him at least containing Andre Drummond here.

Ultimately, I think this line is too short for a Nets team that looks to have come together over the past few days. I like them laying just 1.5 points here and also see value in some Kyrie over points props.

Few teams have exceeded expectations as much as the Phoenix Suns so far this season. They enter this contest with a respectable 3-2 record, going a league-best 5-0 ATS so far.

Punters are unsurprisingly all over them in this spot, with 68% of the early action on Phoenix -2.5. Although they’ve certainly been impressive of late, I can’t help but think Phoenix is overrated in this spot.

While they had an impressive win against the Clippers, I don’t write too much into blowout wins over Sacramento and Golden State. There were mitigating circumstances in both of those games and I think they’ll be anomalies going forward.

As well as Aron Baynes has played of late, I don’t see him keeping this up either. Much of this is built on his unsustainably hot 3-point shooting, making life much easier for Booker and Rubio in the backcourt.

Let’s not forget that this is historically a side that has played to the level of their competition. They’ve enjoyed a few high-profile clashes thus far, but this one is definitely at the bottom of the totem pole.

This is also their last road game before they head home, so I can see somewhat of a motivational lull here. Compare that to a Memphis side that hasn’t played in 4 days and is coming off a brutal 30-point defeat to the Lakers.

I expect them to be frisky against most opponents, but the Lakers are just a terrible matchup for them. They’re a side that tend to thrive in the home underdog role, especially against a side like Phoenix that is rarely a road favourite.

Ja Morant is looking like the ROY frontrunner I predicted in pre-season, while Jaren Jackson matches up particularly well with this side. I see this one as a very similar game to Brooklyn last week, where Memphis competed the whole way and took it out in overtime.

Given their home court advantage, I think they’re well worth it at the current line of 2.5 points. Keep an eye out on this line closer to tip-off, as the Phoenix money could push it to 3 and beyond.

There are few sides that have disappointed to start this season more than the Brooklyn Nets. They’re just 1-3 straight up and have failed to cover in all 4 contests this season.

Punters appear to have turned on them early, with 60% of action on the Rockets laying 4 on the road. They’ve looked especially poor in the last two, losing away at Memphis and by double digits at home to Indiana.

While many punters will look to avoid them in the current market, I see this as just the right time to get on. Despite having a better overall record, Houston going 0-4 ATS so far suggests they’re not meeting expectations either.

Their defence has looked atrocious at times, allowing 158 points to Washington last time out. They have a huge drop-off between their starters and bench players, one which I can see this deep Brooklyn side exposing.

Guys like Dinwiddie, Allen, Kurucs, and Temple are much better than their counterparts in Houston and really provide a matchup edge here. With neither Harden or Westbrook a good perimeter defender, I can also see Kyrie’s unique style getting the better of both of them.

There were also some relatively explosive comments in the aftermath of Thursday’s game, chastising the Nets for not playing hard enough. The first game after this type of event tends to elicit a positive response from the players.

Against a marquee team in Houston at home on a Friday night, there’s no reason not to be motivated here. Combine their motivation edge with a strong depth advantage and home court and I like them here getting a healthy 4 points.

I was definitely low on this Warriors team coming into the season and have made some good money fading their season win totals and early lines. Thursday’s injury to Steph Curry was absolutely brutal and made it seem like this side will compete for a top 5 pick this off-season.

While this may be the case, I think we get maximum effort from this side here. This is essentially the perfect Ewing theory game. With their best player out of the lineup, all these players have heard for the past 48 hours is how they’ve got no hope.

Punters have hugely favoured the Spurs here, garnering nearly 80% of the early action. The contrarian angle has worked well so far and I see that continuing here. Naturally, they’re each inclined to fight a bit harder and do a bit more to make up for such a gargantuan loss.

They are somewhat healthier than this time last week, with Cauley-Stein and Alec Burks filling huge holes in the rotation. D’Angelo Russell can now move to his more natural position at Point Guard, while youngsters Jordan Poole and Eric Paschall have looked solid thus far.

Let’s not forget the fact that the Spurs haven’t looked like any great shakes either this season. They managed narrow home wins over the Knicks, Wizards, and Blazers, failing to cover on all 3 occasions.

They then played the Clippers last night, losing by 6 and falling to 0-4 ATS on the season. Although there isn’t a huge amount of travel involved, the back-to-back still plays into the Warriors hands here.

This line suggests that if we were playing in San Antonio, the Spurs would be laying 12.5 points here. This tells me Golden State are heavily undervalued in the market, which, combined with their motivation and rest advantage makes them great value +6.5 points.

Without a ton of value on today’s small slate, this is the only play I’m going with. The weekend appears to have a lot of action on both days, so I’ll look to throw in an extra play there.

This is another one of those plays largely driven by a contrarian angle. 80% of the early action has been on Denver in this one and I can see this line further improving in the Pelicans’ favour before tip-off.

After a ton of hype over the off-season, I think Denver is overrated in the current market. Aside from a decent road win away at Portland in game 1, they really haven’t done anything all year. They beat the Suns by 1 point, narrowly covered against the Kings, and lost outright as a home favourite against Dallas.

Compare that to a New Orleans side that punters are definitely down on. They’re 0-4 straight up this season, managing only a single cover thus far.

They were destroyed by Golden State last time out, a loss that is starting to look worse and worse. However, I think a major reason for that defeat was the injuries they’ve been dealing with. In addition to Zion, star player Jrue Holiday and starting Center Derrick Favors were both out.

Holiday is probable to start in this one, while Favors looks like a 50/50 shot. These two provide much more balance to the New Orleans offence and can attack a vulnerable Denver defence.

I still have relatively high hopes for this deep Pelicans side this season, particularly during home games. They’re heavily undervalued in this spot, a game where they’ll be very competitive if not win outright. In a game reminiscent of Boston yesterday, I’ll take the home dog plus the points here.

The Magic have gotten off to a relatively poor start this season, going 1-2 straight up and 0-3 ATS. They’ve been heavily bet against by punters all season and the perception of them is generally bearish in the current market.

That said, I’ve liked most of what I’ve seen from this bunch and feel as though they’re somewhat underrated. They destroyed Cleveland in the season opener, with some garbage time points ultimately meaning they missed out on a cover by 0.5

This was backed up by a very competitive game in Atlanta, which they really should’ve won but for a lack of outside shooting. They were again competitive last time out in Toronto, falling just a few points short of a cover in a relatively close game.

In looking at the action for this game so far, I’m somewhat surprised to see 70% of action on the Knicks. If this game were in New York and Orlando were laying 2.5, I think they’d definitely get a lot more action.

This is still one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, particularly with Isaac and Gordon as the starting forwards. Their offence should do more than enough in this one, with very favourable matchups for both Vucevic and Fournier. They were a strong home side last year and Steve Clifford has a history of his sides beating up on weaker opponents.

The Knicks are certainly no great shakes either, however 3 covers in 4 has the punters on side. I think this is another overrated New York team that likely has a poor performance against the spread this season. Orlando by double digits for their first cover of the season.

Boston have had a stellar start to the Kemba Walker era, going 2-1 straight up and ATS so far. After a tough opening game in Philly, they’ve managed consecutive strong wins over Toronto and New York.

They’ve been great as a home underdog in recent years, and they find themselves getting 2.5 points here. Milwaukee is getting all the early action, with 71% of punters favouring the Bucks.

To me, this seems like the classic 1-minute analysis of a really good team laying such a small number. Without having spent too much time together, I feel as though this Boston side is somewhat underrated by the market.

Although they lack options on the interior, I love both their guard and wing rotations. I think they’ve got a few bodies to throw on Giannis and at least do a decent job of containing him.

Their 3-point defence has also been excellent under Stephens, a great tool against a team like Milwaukee. So many Bucks players are heavily reliant on making 3’s, which likely won’t come easy in this one.

After a breakthrough season last year, we’ve got a mixed bag from the Bucks thus far. They managed a comeback win over Houston and a drubbing of Milwaukee, while also losing at home to a Butler-less heat.

Their defence hasn’t looked that impressive in any of the 3 games, giving up an average of 117 points so far. This bodes poorly against a Boston side with a plethora of capable offensive creators.

Overall, this is a contrarian play on an excellent home underdog looking for revenge after the playoffs last season. I expect Boston to keep this very close, if not manage a win outright. Keep an eye on the line before tip-off, as the pro-Milwaukee money could shift this further in our favour.

The Hawks have been relatively impressive thus far, going 2-1 and covering all 3 times. Point Guard Trae Young has been especially good, earning Eastern Conference Player of the Week last week.

Their defence has looked much better than I anticipated, particularly on the perimeter. I’ve liked the look of young wings De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, who should compliment Young and Collins nicely.

I think they match up relatively well against the Heat, a team that lacks a huge interior scoring presence. Despite being on a back-to-back, this is a very young team that should be able to recover relatively easily. Miami are also rather banged up here, with Waiters, James Johnson, and Derrick Jones Junior all slated to miss this one.

While Jimmy Butler is scheduled to make his Heat debut, I think there could be an adjustment period bringing him into the lineup. Although they’ve got strong coaching, I’m not convinced many of their players belong in an NBA rotation. They’ve got some especially weak Guards getting minutes and I can see another field day for Trae Young.

Overall, I think these are two relatively even sides. Miami is the slightly better of the two, also having home court and the rest advantage.

I’m definitely supporting the public with this pick, but I like Atlanta at a relatively generous +8. They’ve got a shot to win this outright for sure and I’d expect them to at least keep it close.

After a disastrous loss on opening day, wins over Utah and Charlotte have Lakers fans seemingly ready to raise another banner. They find themselves 12-point home favourites over Memphis today, already getting 66% of the action.

Now 2-1 ATS on the season, the Lakers have attracted a ton of action from bettors in every game this season. Contrast that to the 1-2 Grizzlies, who look like one of the more underrated teams in the market.

They’ve definitely competed in their last couple of games, managing a nice win over Brooklyn as a 5-point underdog last time out. Ja Morant solidified his case as the ROY front-runner, gong for 30 points and 9 assists in the win.

I’ve also been impressed by their frontcourt, with guys like Crowder, Jackson, and Valanciunas capable of matching up with L.A. While he isn’t a household name, Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins has been impressive early on, very much following the Kenny Atkinson model in Brooklyn.

Overall, this is a relatively low-profile game that I can see some of the Lakers stars taking it easy in. While that’ll probably be enough to get the win, I’m not sure it’s enough to cover the exorbitant 12-point line.

Expect another gritty display from the Grizzlies that keeps this one close, with Lakers 1-10 a solid bet on the margin market.

This is a relatively square play by my standards, but I just don’t have any faith in this Warriors team at the moment. I’ve faded them in both games to start the season and they’ve been dreadful in both.

I’m somewhat concerned about the reverse line movement here, with New Orleans moving from a 3 to a 2 point favourite despite garnering the majority of the action. Even so, I just don’t think the Warriors have the bodies to compete with them right now.

They are painfully thin on the interior, with Cauley Stein and Looney out injured and Draymond seemingly banged up. While New Orleans are somewhat weaker on the interior without Zion, they still match up rather well with Golden State. I expect a solid starting big like Derrick Favors to eat in this one, backed up capably by Okafor and Meli.

Golden State are also atrocious on the wing, where they have probably the worst rotation options in the league. They’ve been predictably carved open by decent wings in both games so far, a trend I see continuing all year.

Brandon Ingram comes into this one after a 35-point display and has another chance for a big night here. Josh Hart should also enjoy some success here, with Kenny Williams providing solid minutes off the bench.

This bet admittedly does hinge somewhat on the health of Jrue Holiday. He is currently listed as questionable for this one, but I think New Orleans are great value at this line if he plays.

One of the better two-way Point Guards in the NBA, he is a very credible defensive option to put on Steph. A super-Saiyan performance from Curry is the only way I see Golden State winning here, but I think a defensive duo of Ball and Holiday can contain him nicely.

I do expect a better effort from the Warriors here, but they’ve really only got 3 NBA rotation players suiting up. The weak links on this roster likely get exposed here, as the Pels do just enough to win and cover.

This is looking like one of the most one-sided bet games of the season so far, with 81% of the early action on Denver. Unsurprisingly, I’m going to continue being a contrarian and take Sacramento as a healthy home underdog.

This is simply a case of excellent line value. Sacramento opened the season as road favourites at Phoenix, who were just 11-point underdogs against Denver on Saturday.

With home court essentially representing 3 points either side, this line suggests Denver would be a 12-point favourite at home against the Kings. 3 games into the season and the oddsmakers are already putting Phoenix over Sacramento?

That just doesn’t make sense to me, especially given how plucky Sacramento are at home. They were very good at the Golden One Centre last season and I see another winning home record this year.

As good as they’ll be this season, Denver will likely hover around .500 on the road. They have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, but this group hasn’t proven to be a great road side.

Their form to start the season hasn’t been great either. While they got a solid win at Portland on opening night, they only beat the lowly Suns by 1 at home last time out.

While they have struggled so far, I like the roster Sacramento has put together. They’re a deep team that should fare well throughout the regular season, particularly in transition. Given their 0-3 predicament, I also think they’ve got a natural edge over Denver in this one.

If you treat NBA teams like stocks, the Kings are ultimately undervalued in this spot. I like the fact that the majority of punters are on Denver and can see this line moving further. While I’m not sure they win outright, I think they do enough to at least keep it close.