Sunday, November 17

Sunday, November 17

Chicago Bulls vs Brooklyn Nets, 10 am
Under 231.5

Neither of these sides have started particularly well, both only managing 4 wins thus far. While the majority of punters like Brooklyn +1 on the road here, I’m going to opt for another total play in this one.

Currently set at 231.5 points, I really like the look of the under here. First and foremost, the Brooklyn offence is really handicapped by injuries at the moment.

Caris LeVert is out for a few weeks, while star PG Kyrie Irving is questionable with a shoulder injury. If he can’t go, I just don’t see how this Brooklyn side can reliably create on the perimeter.

The Bulls have also been hit by the injury bug of late. Otto Porter has been ruled out for this one, while Zach LaVine is day-to-day with an ankle injury. These are two of the Bulls premier offensive players and scoring will be significantly tougher without them.

I also don’t anticipate this being a spot where these sides have a lot of energy. This is the first game back East for Brooklyn after a 4-game West Coast swing, with the time difference having a noticeable impact.

These are two sides with inconsistent offences that are likely to be without some of their best offensive creators in this matchup. While neither defence has been all that impressive, I’m still confident in the under at this number.

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks, 11 am
Pacers +6

The Pacers have gotten off to a solid 7-4 start to the campaign, while Milwaukee are also sitting pretty at 8-3. The line in this one has gravitated between 5.5 and 6 points, with Milwaukee receiving a whopping 82% of the early action.

This appears to be an excellent contrarian spot and I’m looking to take Indiana here. Despite being without Oladipo and Turner, they’ve acquitted themselves very well of late.

Malcolm Brogdon has looked like a very solid backcourt playmaker, while Domantas Sabonis has credibly manned the interior. They haven’t beat many of the league’s best sides but they consistently get the job done. The Fieldhouse is an especially tough place to play, where they boast a 5-1 record thus far.

Milwaukee also enter this clash far from healthy. All-Star Guard Khris Middleton is out for a few weeks at least and I’m not sure the average fan appreciates his impact. This puts a lot more pressure on Bledsoe as a second option, who’s far from consistent.

The Bucks also haven’t been world beaters thus far, largely taking advantage of a relatively easy schedule. They don’t match up especially well with the Pacers and should be in for a close one here.

The one negative here is that Indiana are on a back-to-back after a tense game in Houston last night. That said, as a relatively young side I think they’ll still have a lot of energy going into this one. Especially if you can get 6 points, I love the contrarian angle with Indiana here.

 

Saturday, November 16

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Washington Wizards, 12 pm
Under 240.5 Points

The Timberwolves continue to impress, moving to 7-4 after their third win in 4 games. Washington continue to sit near the bottom of the East, winning just 2 of their 9 games thus far.

In this game, I’ll look to focus on the total, specifically backing under at the current line of 240.5 points. This is an incredibly high total for two sides with relatively inconsistent offences.

In Washington’s 9 games this season, they’ve only gone over this total twice, with Minnesota only doing so in 3 of their 11 games. Both sides will run through KAT and Beal respectively, but the other options leave a lot to be desired.

Additionally, both of these sides appear to be shooting unsustainably well from both mid-range and the 3-point line. Andrew Wiggins in particular has looked quite solid this season and you have to wonder how long that continues given his history.

This spot also isn’t conducive to a lot of points from either side. This is the second game in a 3-game trip for Washington, while this is the front-end of a back-to-back for Minnesota.

Based on the early action, this appears to be a game where the total will be continually bet up by the general public. That said, I just don’t see the number of possessions or shooting percentages being high enough here to go over this huge number. Especially at 240.5, I very strongly lean towards the under here.

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics, 2:30 pm
Warriors +8

The Warriors have been the worst side in the NBA thus far, stumbling out of the gate to a 2-10 record. On the flipside, Boston have raced out to a league-best 9-1.

Punters have unsurprisingly been all over the Celtics thus far, with 68% of the early money coming in on Boston. However, I think there is just too much line value on the underdog to ignore here.

As a point of reference, the Warriors just played against the Lakers on Thursday and closed as 8-point dogs, admittedly without AD. Accounting for home court, this means they would’ve been favoured by just 2 if the game was at the Chase Center.

As solid as Boston have been thus far, I just don’t see how they’re 6 point favourites over the Lakers on a neutral, even without AD. I think far too much of this is the public going against Golden State after a few disastrous results.

The Warriors are the healthiest they’ve been over the last few weeks, with both D’Angelo and Draymond having a solid run in the side. Although it was a pretty disastrous effort last time out, I think we’re in for a better Golden State effort at home.

This isn’t a particularly favourable spot for the Celtics either. It is their first game on a gruelling West-Coast swing and their body clocks are still adjusting.

While Enes Kanter started last time out, he is still clearly working his way back to full fitness. Gordon Hayward was having a career year until his injury and definitely would’ve been poised for a big game here.

Combine all of these factors and I think we’re in for a relatively close game here. Especially if you can get 8 points, back the Warriors at their lowest value and potentially also sprinkle some on the moneyline.

Friday, November 15

New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks, 12 pm
Knicks +7

The Knicks have really struggled out the gate, sitting bottom of the East with a woeful 2-9 record so far. On the contrary, there is some optimism for a Mavericks side that is now 6th in the West, having won 6 of their first 10.

The obvious storyline in this game is Kristaps Porzingis, who returns to New York after a relatively messy exit. Punters are loving the Mavericks in this spot, with two-thirds of the early action on Dallas -7 points.

That said, I’m taking somewhat of a contrarian view here and like the Knicks in primetime. Plain and simple, I think this is just too many points for Dallas to be laying on the road.

This line suggests that if the game was played in Dallas, the Mavericks would be favoured by a whopping 13 points. The Knicks have been awful thus far but often the ugly duckling teams are the best ones to bet on.

If it wasn’t for Luka Doncic, I think the Mavs would clearly be a bottom-tier NBA team. Porzingis has underwhelmed thus far and the rest of the side is made up primarily of role players.

The Knicks have shown flashes at times this season, least of all when they won in Dallas just last week. They actually match up rather well with this Mavericks side, especially on the interior.

When the crowd is on their side, the Garden is also one of the better home court advantages in the NBA. There will be a ton of animosity towards Porzingis and I expect the primetime atmosphere to galvanize the Knicks players.

Doncic probably does just enough to get the Mavs over the line here, but I think the Knicks are live dogs with a good chance of keeping it close. Especially if you can get them through the key number of 7, I recommend backing #knickstape here.

Denver Nuggets vs Brooklyn Nets, 2:30 pm
Nets +9

*With Kyrie’s status up in the air for this clash, this play is contingent on him being available here.

Despite a relatively poor 4-6 start to the campaign, the East is so poor that the Nets currently sit in 7th. The Nuggets have been good but not great out West, occupying a top 4 spot with a 7-3 record.

Brooklyn have opened as 9-point underdogs in this one, getting 55% of the early action. I’m inclined to go with the public here and back Brooklyn, assuming Kyrie’s injury is nothing major.

While they’ve had some poor losses in the early going, I think this is a side that gets up for big games. They won their lone primetime tilt with Houston earlier this season and I anticipate another motivated performance here.

I haven’t found Denver to be all that impressive thus far and see some value catching almost double digits. Denver have maybe only 2 really good wins, also coming up short in winnable games against Dallas, New Orleans, and Atlanta.

Given their talent on offence, I think Brooklyn match up quite well with Denver. Although Caris LeVert is out, this means more chances for Kyrie to create and more opportunities for 6th man Spencer Dinwiddie. The Allen-Jordan duo also ensures 48 quality minutes at Center and should help somewhat limit Jokic.

As a team who seems to lack motivation at times, a primetime game in front of the nation is exactly what this Brooklyn side needs. I expect a relatively close game late and will happily take Kyrie and co plus the 9 points.

Thursday, November 14

Charlotte Hornets vs Memphis Grizzlies, 11 am
Hornets -1.5

The Hornets have quietly been respectable thus far, sitting 9th in the East with a 4-6 record. Despite sitting 13th out West, the Grizzlies have showed some signs of life, having a few impressive wins thus far.

Charlotte have opened 1.5-point favourites in this one, receiving 70% of the early action from bettors. In somewhat of a change, I’m going to side with the majority here and back Charlotte at a relatively low number.

First and foremost, young teams like these two tend to play much better at home than they do on the road. This is especially true for lower-end rotation players, which both of these sides have a lot of.

Memphis have won just once on the road this season, which was coincidentally last time out at San Antonio. They’ve been terrible in the game after a win this season, losing by over 50 combined points against the Lakers and Magic.

On the flipside, the Hornets have been the more consistent and reliable of these two sides so far. They’ve picked up a few impressive wins and held serve against the teams they’re capable of beating.

Terry Rozier has added some stability to the Point Guard position and is backed up very capably by De’Vonte Graham. Given the weaknesses of Memphis’ perimeter defence, the Charlotte guards have a noticeable matchup advantage and should be able to control this one.

They’ve also been getting some very solid frontcourt production, specifically from young forwards PJ Washington and Miles Bridges. Nic Batum appears to be returning from injury, meaning they’ve essentially now got a clean bill of health.

Ultimately, I think Charlotte is probably the slightly better of these two sides. Factoring in 3 points for home court and we’re really getting good line value on Charlotte at this -1.5 number.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs, 12 pm
Spurs +2

Minnesota have been a very solid side through the first 10 games, entering the West playoff picture with 6 wins thus far. A recent poor run from the Spurs has them 5-5, now on the outside of the top 8 looking in.

The Wolves have opened as relatively tight 2-point favourites in this one, garnering nearly 75% of the early action. I’ve started to see a few 2.5-point lines popping up and really see some value in the Spurs at this number.

Despite a poor recent run, I think the Spurs probably the better of these two sides. They’ve got a very deep Guard rotation, one which I think can really stifle the Timberwolves offence. This is especially true when you consider the injury report for Minnesota, with both Teague and Napier questionable for this one at Point Guard.  

As maligned as they are come playoff time, both DeRozan and Aldridge are very solid regular season offensive players. They’re particularly strong in isolation, which is a noticeable weak point of the Minnesota defence. Another strength of this side is their interior defence, which comes in very handy against someone like KAT.

I also think they’ve got a relatively substantial coaching advantage with Greg Popovich over Ryan Saunders. Especially after a poor loss at home to Memphis last time out, you can bet Pop will have these guys motivated.

Minnesota are probably a tad overrated by the public after their early season run and the Spurs look like a great contrarian play here. I think this is a coin-flip type of game and will happily take the side with a better coach getting 2.5 points.

Wednesday, November 13

Indiana Pacers vs OKC Thunder, 11 am
Thunder +3.5

After a relatively slow start, the Pacers have incrementally improved to a solid 6-4 record. OKC have been noticeably more inconsistent, only winning 4 of their first 10.

Punters are really favouring Indiana in this one, with 81% of action coming on the Pacers at the initial -3 line. Despite getting some good results, their recent schedule has been a cake walk to say the least.

They’ve won 5 of their last 6 contests, although these were against the Cavs, Bulls, Hornets, Wizards, Pistons, and Magic; hardly a murderer’s row. This makes me think they’re overrated by the general public and explains the betting disparity here.

They’re far from healthy in this one, with Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb two huge injury losses in the rotation. Their current rotation really doesn’t inspire much confidence and I think they’ve been fortunate to have such an easy schedule.

OKC enter this one the healthier of these two sides, especially with Steven Adams likely to play. They’ve played a significantly tougher schedule this season and will likely come out at a higher level than their opponents.

Considering these injuries, I think they’ve got the better of the two starting fives and they’re also getting better high-end bench play. Their two guards should be able to control the tempo in this one, while they’ve also got the bigs to contain Sabonis.

Especially considering all the action on Indiana, I’ve already started to see some 3.5-point lines and can see this going further up. This is a relatively evenly matched game that could go either way, making OKC solid value through the key number of 3.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavs, 11 am
76ers -11

After an excellent start, a minor form slump has brought the Sixers back to 6-3. Cleveland are playing a gritty brand of basketball under Jim Beilein, moving to 4-5 after consecutive wins.

Philly open as 11-point favourites in this one, receiving 60% of the early action. I can’t help but feel as though there’s some reverse line value in this one. If this game was in Cleveland and Philly were only 5 point favourites, I could see this line moving drastically.

With these two sides trending in opposite directions of late, it appears as though Philly are slightly undervalued in the market. That said, it’s tough to put too much stock into the last few games for either side.

Philly had a brutal West Coast road trip, dealing with some of the league’s best teams while short-handed. Cleveland, on the other hand, managed to beat up on some scrubs, comfortably beating the Wizards and Knicks.

Philadelphia is one of the toughest places in the NBA to play and I’m not sure this young Cavs team is up for it. Especially against an elite Philly defence, I expect their relatively inefficient guards to struggle to create.

Even the strength of their team, the big-man duo of Love and Thompson, is completely outmatched against Horford and Embiid. Should Ben Simmons remain out for this one, the Sixers are still getting solid guard play from Neto, Burke, and Richardson.

While they’ve been a nice story so far, this Cavs team isn’t built to hang with the NBA’s elite. Expect Philly’s defence to set the tone here en route to a rather comfortable home win.

Tuesday, November 12

Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks, 11:30 am
Mavs +4

Boston have raced out to an excellent early start, currently sitting atop the East with a 7-1 record. Dallas have also been impressive thus far, going 6-3 and earning a top 4 spot in the vaunted West.

While Boston have been very strong of late, their injury concerns have me very wary here. Gordon Hayward and Enes Kanter are listed as ‘out’ on the injury report, while there is still some trepidation over whether Jaylen Brown will play.

Hayward had looked back to his best this season and this marks a huge loss for Boston. They weren’t the deepest team to begin with and they’ve probably got only 6-7 reliable rotation players here.

The spot also isn’t great for Boston from a potential fatigue perspective. They’ve played their last 3 on the road and the first game back home is notoriously difficult to prepare for.

Aside from a shock loss to the Knicks on Saturday, the Mavs have handled business in a professional and consistent manner this season. Doncic and Porzingis are a very capable 1-2 combo, while a ton of solid role players have also stepped up.

They’re essentially fully healthy for this one, with Porzingis sitting out at Memphis last time out for a dedicated rest day. Especially with Boston’s injuries on the interior, I’m not sure they’re able to effectively match up with KP here.

With the line currently at Dallas +4, the Mavs have received a slight edge in the early betting numbers. I think Dallas has a chance to win this outright, but the extra 4 points offer great value at the current price.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets, 12 pm
Under 243.5 Points

Here we have a matchup between two sides at opposite ends of the Western Conference standings. Despite a few poor losses, a decent recent run has Houston sitting pretty at 6-3. New Orleans has been a major flop this season, picking up only their second win at Charlotte last time out.

The injuries haven’t eased up for New Orleans, with Lonzo and Zion out for this one and JJ Redick doubtful. Houston don’t have a clean bill of health either, with Eric Gordon’s status uncertain for this one.

Neither of these sides are particularly deep to begin with, making me think we could see some short rotations here. This makes me lean heavily towards the under, with the total currently set at a whopping 243.5 points.

I initially leaned towards Houston -4.5 points, but the fact that 80% of bettors were on the same side has me somewhat concerned. Houston totals are similarly heavily bet up by the public, with the value coming on the under in most spots.

They’re 5-4 towards the under this season, a trend I can see continuing over the season. While they’ve had some high-scoring affairs this season, only 2 of them have gone over the 243.5 currently on offer.

New Orleans have generally cashed tickets for over backers thus far, but their offense is incredibly inconsistent. Jrue Holiday is their only real perimeter creator and his questionable health has me thinking their offense could struggle this season.

It’s also an atrocious spot for New Orleans, playing their third game in 4 days and returning home from a trip to the East coast. Ultimately, I don’t see the game being played fast enough to go over such a high total the majority of the time. Especially for alternate line players, there looks to be strong value on the under here.

Monday, November 11

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets, 7:30 am
Wolves +2.5

Both of these sides have had relatively solid starts to the campaign, both currently occupying a spot in the playoff positions. Despite having decent records, both of these sides are below .500 ATS, each going 3-4-1 on the year.

Punters are heavily backing Denver at the -2.5 number, with 70% of the action on the Nuggets so far. This is another trademark case where I think the road favourite is somewhat overvalued.

Aside from the issues surrounding the Karl Anthony Towns suspension fiasco, the Wolves have been competitive in all but one game this season. The Target Center is a tough place to play and I expect them to have a comfortably above .500 home record this year.

Although they’ve been decent this season so far, this Nuggets side is renowned for being relatively poor on the road. They lost to New Orleans just over a week ago, while also managing relatively narrow wins at Orlando, Sacramento, and Portland. With how they’ve played thus far, a strong case can be made that Minnesota is better than all of those teams.

They also match up quite well against this Denver side, especially on the wings. Although heavily maligned, I think the duo of Wiggins and Covington can really overpower the Denver wings and swing this in Minnesota’s favour.

Never a great defensive Center, I also expect Jokic to struggle against the spacing of KAT. Throw in guys like Okogie and Layman on the second unit and Minnesota should be able to compete all game.

This is a single-game road trip for Denver, with tip-off at an unusual 3:30 am time slot. Fatigue tends to play a factor in these type of games, with the home side getting a strong advantage.

As a side who plays to the level of their competition, I think Minnesota will be very competitive here. All the action on Denver means this line could even go to +3, at which point I’d like them even more.

best bet
LA Lakers vs Toronto Raptors, 1:30 pm
Lakers -9

Both of these sides have gotten off to fairly impressive starts, only combining for 3 losses at this stage. The Lakers have won each of their last 7, with talk centring around how they might be the best side in the NBA.

I think both of these sides have played cupcake schedules thus far and are somewhat overrated by the general public. The main reason for this play against Toronto is the injuries to two key players.

Both Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are confirmed out for this one and a while after, which will have a huge impact on this game. Toronto now has an incredibly thin bench, with only 5 quality rotation players available.

They lose a ton of offensive creation without Lowry, putting a lot of stress on Fred Van Vleet. As good as Siakam has been thus far, facing the length of Danny Green, LeBron, and AD will make life very difficult for him.

Conversely, the Lakers enter this one relatively healthy, with none of their key rotation players out. They’re the much deeper of these two sides and should be able to win both the starter and backup minutes.

This is also a poor situational spot for the Raptors, with a back-to-back against Kawhi and the Clippers on deck. This is obviously a very emotional game and the Raptors could pack it in early if the deficit gets too big.

It is also a relatively strong contrarian play, with two-thirds of punters on the Raptors +9 points. This tells me they likely aren’t aware of the Lowry and Ibaka injuries or don’t know how important these two players are.

They’ve got the rest advantage, depth advantage, travel advantage, and talent edge. Expect the Lakers to make it 8 in a row, covering the -9 in the process.

Sunday, November 10

San Antonio Spurs vs Boston Celtics, 9 am
Spurs -1

Both of these sides have gotten out to fast starts, with Boston sitting at 6-1 and the Spurs at 5-3. The Celtics are a solid 4-2-1 ATS, while the Spurs have only covered the number twice this season.

For this reason, I think they’re undervalued by the market and look great value laying just a single point. On Monday this week, they were also laying a single point at home to the Lakers. While Boston have certainly been impressive, I’m not sure they’re at the Lakers’ level yet.

6-1 looks excellent on paper, but the only Boston win that has been impressive so far was against Milwaukee. They’ve feasted on some very easy opponents, beating the Knicks twice, as well as Cleveland and Charlotte in their last two.

Injuries have really started to pile up on the interior, which could be problematic against a strong San Antonio frontcourt. Enes Kanter remains out with a knee injury, while both Daniel Theis and Robert Williams aren’t yet at full fitness.

This could also definitely be an emotional letdown for Boston, after Kemba Walker’s homecoming in Charlotte last time out. Especially considering this is the third and final game of their road trip, we could see a flat spot here.

Compare that to a Spurs side that looked very good at home to OKC last time out, covering with ease. Aldridge feasted on the interior with an impressive 39 points and I can see him having his way with Boston’s vulnerable frontcourt here.

The Spurs also have the health advantage here, sporting a roster free of any injuries for this one. These two sides are relatively evenly matched and with the excellent San Antonio home court, I’ll take the Spurs at the small number here.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors, 12 pm
Warriors +12

Neither of these sides has had an impressive start to the season. The injury-plagued Warriors are just 2-7, while OKC are only 3-5 themselves.

As bad as the Warriors have been this season, I’m not sure they should be catching 12 points in this one. They looked much better against Minnesota last time out, largely due to some competent PG play from D’Angelo Russell.

This also looms as a solid revenge spot after the Warriors were blown out by OKC almost a fortnight ago. That was the only time OKC won by a margin above the spread and I think we see a much better Golden State effort here.

Although the Warriors played an Overtime game last night, I think a relatively young side should be able to recover quickly here. Rookie Eric Paschall is looking like one for the future, while Alec Burks is providing some much-needed bench scoring.

Given what we’ve seen from OKC, I’m not sure why they’re laying 12 points in this one. They’re a relatively top-heavy roster and lack the offensive creation to put up a lot of points.

They do have the slight rest advantage here, but I think that is made up for by the revenge factor for Golden State. For reference, the Golden State at Houston line closed at 13.5 just the other day.

Ultimately, I think this line is probably 3-4 points too many here, with Russell making this team competent offensively. I expect a relatively close affair, with Golden State at least competing and likely covering this exorbitant number.

Saturday, November 9

Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 11 am
Cavs +5

These two sides have gotten off to predictably poor starts to the season, both sporting a record of 2-5. The Wizards have opened this clash as 5-point favourites and have received 75% of the early action.

Despite being solid ATS this season, I’m not sure Washington should be laying 5 points against any NBA team. Cleveland have been quite frisky for most of this season and have only been blown out by Milwaukee and Dallas.

I think their relatively poor ATS record has turned punters away, meaning they’re somewhat undervalued for this clash. They’ve got essentially a clean bill of health for this one, with only rookies Kevin Porter and Dylan Windler ruled out.

Washington are relatively weak on the interior, which is the main area where Cleveland excels. While he is a decent stretch shooter, I don’t think Thomas Bryant has the strength to box out Tristan Thompson, nor the defensive ability to guard Kevin Love.

Poor play at the Point Guard position also means that defensive sieve Isaiah Thomas will get the start, which could lead to big nights for Garland and Sexton. Injuries to Miles and McCrae limit their available bodies on the wing, putting even more pressure on star Bradley Beal.

Despite looking like a competitive side for most games this season, this is a scenario that Washington definitely won’t be used to. I see them playing down to their competition here and finding it very difficult to break away.

Especially with all the action on the Wizards so far, I can see this line going to 5.5 or even 6 points before tip-off. Playing along with the contrarian angle that has worked thus far, I definitely like Cleveland at this number.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Toronto Raptors, 12 pm
Pelicans +3

Both sides came into this season with a ton of promise, however only one of them has lived up to that so far. That would be the defending champion Raptors, who sit 5th in the East with a solid 5-2 record.

Things haven’t been as great for New Orleans, who sit bottom of the West with a 1-6 record. While this looks poor on paper, there have certainly been some mitigating factors against them.

Chief among these is the rotten injury luck they’ve suffered so far. Zion will remain out for a while, but key players like Jrue Holiday and Derrick Favors have been in and out of the lineup with injury.

Both players are healthy and ready to go here, as are former Lakers duo Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. Having gone just 2-5 ATS this season, it’s not surprising to see only 25% of punters backing them so far.

As I outlined in my preview of Toronto and Sacramento, I think the Raptors are still overrated in the current market. They’ve got a strong starting lineup, but the lack of depth on their bench is definitely concerning.

In looking at their schedule, it’s tough to find a really impressive win thus far. They’ve also had a very home-heavy schedule, with their lone road win coming against the lowly Bulls.

New Orleans haven’t performed well on the court this season, but they’ve still got plenty of talented players and they do perform well at home. Aside from their loss to Golden State (without Holiday and Favors), none of their results are particularly egregious.

This game is eerily similar to their one against Denver last week, where they won outright as home dogs despite being heavily bet against. I think this line gets to 3 points with all the action on Toronto, making this a solid line value play for an underrated Pelicans side.

Friday, November 8

San Antonio Spurs vs OKC Thunder, 12:30 pm
Spurs -4.5

3 losses in 4 games has the Spurs on the outside of the playoff race looking in, currently with a 4-3 record. OKC have been frisky but inconsistent thus far, remaining in the hunt with a 3-4 record.

The Spurs are laying 4.5 points here and have garnered three quarters of the early action. Despite this being somewhat of a ‘square’ play, I definitely like the Spurs in this spot.

They’re consistently one of the best home sides in the NBA and have started this season with a decent 3-1 mark. Their sole home loss was against the Lakers, a team they just match up horribly against.

Compare this to an OKC side that is below .500 despite playing a home-heavy schedule so far. They’ve struggled against competent opposition thus far, only managing wins against below .500 opponents.

San Antonio also have a clean bill of health, with Derrick White playing at Atlanta last time out. Andre Roberson is still out for OKC, which could mean a big night for DeMar DeRozan against the slight Terrence Ferguson. I can also see the range of Aldridge taking Steven Adams out of the paint, creating numerous driving lanes against a vulnerable defence.

Given the action thus far, I only see this 4.5-point line increasing closer to tip-off. I’ll take the more talented and better-coached side at home, especially after a disappointing loss last time out.

Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat, 1 pm
Heat +2.5

Phoenix continue to be a surprise package this season, storming out of the gates to a 5-1 record. Miami are looking like a definite top 4 contender out East, starting out 5-2 despite a bunch of injuries.

The public is all over the Suns in this spot, giving them 80% of the early action here. Given the history of this side in recent years, it’ll take more than a handful of good games for me to upgrade them this much.

They’ve been outstanding ATS this season and punters are unsurprisingly getting on the train in the hopes that it keeps rolling. When this occurs, the team in question is generally due to start underperforming relatively soon.

Despite having a near-identical record, Miami’s start has been much more under the radar. They’ve managed some very impressive wins to date, most notably against Milwaukee and Houston.

I think they’ve got the best player on the court in this one, with Jimmy Butler capable of dominating on the wing. Bam Adebayo is looking like a very solid young big, while rookie Kendrick Nunn has emerged as an excellent find.

The Heat also possess one of the more underrated coaching staffs in the NBA, led by head coach Erik Spoelstra. They were poor at Denver last time out, but I attribute a decent amount of this to the first game of a cross-country road trip.

Overall, this is primarily a line value and contrarian angle play. I think Phoenix are a touch overrated in the current market and that this clash is essentially a coin flip. With that in mind, I’ll gladly take 2.5 with Miami, a number that may rise more before tip-off.