The high-flying 25-4 Bucks stroll into New York to take on the 7-22 Knicks, laying a whopping 13 points. This is a huge letdown spot for Milwaukee and I would expect the Knicks to keep it relatively close here.

After playing a high-profile TNT home game against the Lakers, playing the lowly Knicks is a bit of a step down. The Bucks know they’ve got a huge talent edge here and will only need to string together some good late minutes to win.

Despite having generally been atrocious all year, the Knicks are still above .500 ATS. I think the market continues to undervalue them, handing them generous spreads at home like this.

This is the front end of a back-to-back for Milwaukee, playing division rivals Indiana at home on Monday. Both Giannis and Wes Matthews are day-to-day on the injury report and could easily sit here.

New York’s primary weakness is clearly the backcourt, where Milwaukee have no real studs either. The Knicks have a bevy of big Power Forwards, who should be able to combine together to somewhat limit Giannis.

With 80% of the early action on Milwaukee, I think the smart money will ultimately end up on the huge underdog Knicks here.

The 21-9 Clippers travel to San Antonio, laying 5.5 points against the 11-16 Spurs. Given Kawhi’s connection to the franchise, I’d expect a strong effort from LA here, which should lead to a road win and cover.

The Clippers are finally in good shape on the injury report, with all of their main rotation guys ready to play here. This is only the first game of their road trip, so I don’t see fatigue playing a major role either.

I also really like the motivation edge for the Clippers here. They had a relatively poor loss at home to Houston last time out and they’ve only lost consecutively once all year.

They also suffered a defeat in San Antonio earlier this season, a loss I’m sure they’re determined to right. Not to mention the implications of Kawhi’s return, who is undoubtedly happy with how he was treated in 2017-18.

I also think the Spurs are an atrocious matchup for the Clippers, especially on the wing. They’ve just got no-one to go up against Kawhi and PG, who should really be able to dictate the game here.

The guard duo of Beverley and Shamet has also looked defensively of late, which bodes well against San Antonio’s deep backcourt. Laying just 5.5 points here, I’d expect a professional road performance from this veteran squad.

The 8-18 Wizards travel to face the 19-8 Raptors, getting 6.5 points as underdogs. Given the brutal injuries Toronto are facing, I’m going to take the points with the Wiz here.

Toronto was already a relatively thin side, but these injuries appear to have decimated them. Star Forward Pascal Siakam is out indefinitely with a groin injury, while Marc Gasol is slated to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury.

Their guard depth will also be tested, with injuries to both Powell and VanVleet that could keep them out here. Compare that to a Washington side that is essentially fully healthy and I think they’re undervalued getting 6.5 points.

This will be Toronto’s first full game without both Siakam and Gasol, which will really test their frontcourt. Washington have looked much better on the interior of late and I can see them having real success against backup options.

With Siakam out, Washington’s Brad Beal edges Kyle Lowry as the best player on the floor here. He also has a real favourable matchup, likely spending plenty of time against 3x Champion Pat McCaw.

As the injury news keeps coming out, I only see this number going in Washington’s favour. Get in now at +6.5 and you’re essentially getting a freeroll.

The 20-9 Sixers host the 18-9 Mavericks here, laying 8 points. Philly are the healthier and more talented team here and I expect them to both win and cover in this one.

They’re a very impressive 14-1 at home this season, that lone loss coming last time out to Miami. As such, I expect them to be very motivated here to put in a complete performance and come out with the win.

Dallas just aren’t the same team without star Forward Luka Doncic, who is very likely to miss this clash. They don’t have an offensive focal point without him, which should prove costly against an elite Philly defence.

On the flipside, Dallas aren’t much of a defensive juggernaut either. They’re particularly weak on the interior, and I love how the duo of Embiid and Horford match up here. Philly also have a strong advantage on the wing, with both Simmons and Harris having strong offensive advantages.

I also like the contrarian angle for Philly, with only 28% of punters backing them here. While the Mavs looked great with Luka, they’re definitely a below average side with him out.

Laying just 8 points, I’d expect a relatively comfortable Sixers win here.

This looks like one of the better matchups of the season thus far, with both sides leading their conferences at 24-4. The Bucks are laying 4.5 points here, and with Anthony Davis’ status up in the air, I like them as home favourites.

This is a pretty awful situational spot for the Lakers, playing the fifth and final game of this road trip. They looked fatigued in a loss to Indiana last time out and energy could be hard to come by again here.

Davis is also questionable here, having missed the game against Indiana with an ankle injury. If he can’t go or isn’t 100% in this one, the Lakers will really struggle to contain Giannis.

On the flipside, Milwaukee has played just once since Sunday and is playing their third straight game at home. They had a disappointing defeat to Dallas last time out and I know they’ll be focused on making amends here.

I like several of their matchups here, especially with their spacing against the Lakers bigs. This one should definitely be played at a high level, but Milwaukee have more than enough talent to cover 4.5.

The 10-16 Spurs play host to the 15-12 Nets here, laying 2.5 points. I think San Antonio are somewhat undervalued in the market after their awful start and will look to back them at a relatively small number here.

Brooklyn enter this clash very banged up, with their projected starting backcourt of Irving and LeVert both out here. This puts a ton of pressure on backup Spencer Dinwiddie, who defences can now focus in on. They struggled without the two of them last time out, barely edging an overtime win over a poor New Orleans side.

The Spurs have been one of the worst sides for punters to back this season, going just 7-18 ATS. They’ve been especially atrocious at home, only covering the number 3 out of 14 times.

I think that a lot of this is just negative variance and that these guys are in the process of turning things around. If you’re looking for undervalued teams, this could be the perfect candidate before they go on a run.

This is still a fairly deep side, especially on the perimeter. Against a banged up Nets backcourt, I think their depth and energy could really prove crucial here. Especially under the key number of 3, I’m liking another home win for Pop and the Spurs.

The 17-8 Nuggets host the 12-15 Magic here, laying 9 points in this one. Given that this is an atrocious spot for Orlando, I’m inclined to go with the home side here.

Orlando played in Utah last night, leading late on before ultimately losing and not even covering the spread. Denver is a brutal place to travel on a back-to-back, largely because of the location and the altitude during games. Compare that to a Denver side that has had two full days of rest and is expected to have all key players available.

The Nuggets continue to be one of the best home sides in the NBA, going 11-3 at the Pepsi Center thus far. They are just 11-12 ATS on the season, making me think they’re a little undervalued in the market.

In addition to the poor spot, this just isn’t a good stylistic matchup for Orlando either. They’ve struggled on offence all season and I can see a poor night on deck for their backcourt here. Nikola Jokic also has a very favourable matchup against the defensively poor Vucevic.

Denver has impressed at home of late and I expect more of the same here. This has the makings of a flat spot for Orlando, meaning the Nuggets should take it by double digits.

The 17-7 Celtics travel to the 18-8 Mavs here, actually laying 1.5 as a road favourite. I think the Luka injury gives Boston a huge edge on the wing, which is my primary reason for backing them.

The Mavs have been incredibly reliant on Doncic all season and are severely outmatched without him here. Tatum, Brown, and Hayward all have the potential to go off here against the undermanned Mavs wings.

With guys like Tim Hardaway and Seth Curry getting big minutes, Dallas have also struggled a lot guarding on the perimeter. This is problematic against a creative guard like Walker, who will likely control this game throughout.

This is also a relatively good spot for Boston, who haven’t played a game for the last 6 days. They enter this clash refreshed and well-rested, motivated after a loss to Philly last time out.

Dallas have had a few emotional games of late, losing to Miami in OT before beating Milwaukee on the road last time out. It could easily be a flat spot here against a Celtics team that certainly won’t take them likely.

We’ve evolved into an era where wing players are some of the most important in basketball. Without Luka, Dallas are really overmatched in that department, which is why Boston should cover a modest 1.5-point spread here.

The 12-14 Kings travel to the 12-17 Hornets laying 4.5 points. I think the spot really favours Charlotte here and will gladly take them as home underdogs.

Sacramento have moved into playoff position in a surprisingly weak west, going 16-10 ATS this season. I think this has overvalued them in the market, especially against a Hornets side that is feisty at home.

It isn’t an ideal spot for Sacramento, with this being the first game on their East Coast trip after a cross-country flight. NBA players tend to struggle in their first game in a new time zone and I see that playing into Charlotte’s hands here.

There is also expected to be a few changes to the Sacramento rotation entering this game. De’Aaron Fox is slated to return from injury, which changes a lot of what the Kings will do offensively. While this will definitely benefit them long term, the short-term adjustment period could lead to some offensive struggles here.

Charlotte are returning home here after a relatively brutal road trip. Their home/road splits are definitely noticeable and I’d expect a more motivated effort here. Especially with the return of Marvin Williams, I also really like where they’re at from a health standpoint.

Ultimately, I think the Kings are somewhat overvalued laying this many points on the road. Charlotte definitely has a chance to win here, but the 4.5 is great insurance if they lose close.

The 15-11 Jazz host the 12-14 Magic here, laying 5.5 points. Although this is definitely a major public play, I’ll also back Utah as the home favourites.

They’ve been atrocious ATS this season at just 10-16, which has undervalued them in the eyes of a lot of bettors. They still possess one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, as their 10-3 record this season would indicate.

While they’ve struggled against a few of the top sides, they’ve generally got the job done against weaker teams. With Mike Conley projected to return here, they’ll essentially have all hands on deck to get the job done.

Although they’re still in the East playoff picture, I really haven’t liked what I’ve seen from Orlando this season. Their offence seems to struggle almost every game, which doesn’t bode well against an improving Utah defence.

This also isn’t an ideal spot for them, in the midst of their West Coast road trip. They’ve got a back-to-back in Denver tomorrow, which could result in them throwing in the towel if the margin gets too big.

At just 5.5 points, this line suggests Orlando would be favourites at home against Utah. I think this Jazz side is more talented than that and expect them to register a home win and cover here.

The 7-17 Wizards travel to the 11-15 Pistons here, getting a 5.5-point head start. I like the look of Washington as road dogs in this one, particularly due to the injuries on Detroit.

Both Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond are questionable for this one, having dealt with a variety of recent ailments. They are comfortably the two best players on the Pistons and would present a matchup advantage if fully healthy.

With the two of them likely to be limited, the Wizards improving frontcourt could enjoy some success here. Rui Hachimura is enjoying a stellar rookie season, while Davis Bertans has emerged as an excellent bench shooter.  

I also like the edge for Washington on the perimeter here, with Bradley Beal easily the best wing in this contest. Detroit don’t have a lot of bodies to put on him, which could lead to a solid day for the Wizards’ offensive hub.

The Wizards have been in pretty poor form all month, which has somewhat undervalued them in the betting market. These two sides are quite similar in talent, especially with Detroit’s limited frontcourt.

Going through the key number of 5, I’ll take the points with Washington in what projects to be a close one late.

The 17-9 Rockets play host to the 10-15 Spurs here, laying 10 points. Given what happened between these two sides a fortnight ago, I like the revenge angle with Houston as road favourites.

These two teams played on December 4^th, with San Antonio winning a controversial overtime game that Houston later protested. Now playing the reverse fixture at home, I can almost guarantee we see a motivated Houston side here.

This is compounded by the fact that Houston had a relatively poor loss to Detroit at home last time out. While they’re one of the more talented teams in the NBA, motivation has proven an issue at times. This is something that simply won’t be a factor tonight and I’m not sure the market has taken this into account.

This is also quite a favourable matchup for Houston, given San Antonio’s horrendous defence this season. Russell Westbrook is slated to return here and I’d expect big outings from both him and James Harden in this one.

Fatigue could also play somewhat of a factor, with San Antonio having gone to OT in each of their last 4 games. They needed a huge effort from Patty Mills to beat Phoenix last time out, one that I can’t see being repeated here.

10 points seems like a lot on the surface, but Houston is comfortably the more talented team playing at home. Combine that with the motivation edge and I like them to win convincingly here.

The 23-3 Lakers travel to the 6-20 Hawks laying 11.5 points as a road favourite. While this is quite a substantial line, I still think this is a game the dominant Lakers should win and cover.

The main reason for this is the huge matchup advantage LA has on the interior. Atlanta has probably the worst frontcourt in the NBA and they’ve got to go against LeBron and AD.

They’ve gotten nothing from their bigs all year long, meaning AD should have a field day and continue his stellar season. Similarly, their youngsters on the wing just don’t have the necessary size to hang with LeBron. Things all look good from an injury standpoint and I can’t see elbow soreness keeping LeBron out of this one.

Home court isn’t much of a boon for Atlanta either, given that they’re only 3-9 at home this season. This veteran Lakers outfit are 13-1 on the road thus far and I think this line is giving Atlanta too much for home court.

Ultimately, this is a game the Lakers should comfortably win and cover if they play anywhere near their level. I love the matchups for them here and I’m expecting a huge win.

The 11-14 Kings travel to the 5-22 Warriors laying 3.5 points. I’m actually inclined to go with Golden State here, purely as a line value play.

In their last home game, Golden State were 5.5-point favourites over a dismal Knicks side. Likewise, the Kings opened as 8-point favourites against the same Knicks outfit in their last game.

With this in mind, you’d expect this line to be roughly even. Instead, we’re getting a full 3.5 points with Golden State, which I think is too many.

Punters are incredibly down on this side after losses to Memphis and New York, which could mean it’s the perfect time to jump back on. I expect a more motivated performance here, especially considering those two results.

Golden State are also much healthier than they’ve been all season, now having 13 healthy bodies on game day. Draymond Green and Eric Paschall are both likely to play here, bolstering their frontcourt depth.

While Sacramento have fought valiantly of late, they’re facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs this season. De’Aaron Fox remains out with an ankle injury, while backup Cory Joseph isn’t 100% with a back injury.

As such, I don’t think they’ve got enough talent offensively to run away with the game here. Especially through the key number of 3, I’ll take the undervalued Warriors in what is legitimately a coin flip game.

The 16-8 Raptors open as 7.5-point home favourites against the 13-11 Nets and I’m inclined to back them here. Brooklyn has been in some strong form of late without Kyrie and I think the market is overvaluing them.

Toronto has one of the best home courts in the NBA and are looking quite healthy at this point, with only Fred VanVleet a game-time decision. While the Nets definitely look an improved side of late, most of their wins are against relatively poor East sides.

The Raptors have a ton of favourable matchups in this spot, particularly on defence. They’ve got several strong perimeter defenders, all of which should be able to contain new offensive hub Spencer Dinwiddie.

I also like the matchup for Toronto on the interior, with Ibaka and Gasol against Allen and Jordan. They should be able to win the battle on the boards as well as protect the rim effectively.

The contrarian angle is also solid here, with only 27% of bettors backing Toronto at this number. I think they’re the more talented side and their strong home court should propel them to a win and cover.

The 15-8 Nuggets are laying 7 at home to the 11-13 Thunder here and I like the matchup for the home side. They’ve faded a little bit of late, but I think Denver is a bit of a sleeping giant out West.

First and foremost, they’ve got an outstanding homecourt advantage. They’re 9-3 at home this season, compared to a pedestrian 4-8 record for OKC. They’re also essentially fully healthy here, with Paul Millsap looking likely to play.

Secondly, I have to think OKC are starting to become overvalued in this betting market. They’re 16-8 ATS, compared to just 10-11 for their opponents this season. Punters have been cashing tickets with OKC all year, but now looks like the right time to fade them.

I like the matchups for Denver in this one, particularly in the frontcourt. The trio of Jokic, Millsap, and Grant are as solid as you’ll find and I expect them to have their way with Gallinari and Adams.

The backcourt of Murray and Harris has also looked very promising and I give them a strong edge over CP3 and SGA. Denver is also the much deeper of these two sides, which becomes increasingly noticeable at high altitude.

7 points is a healthy spread here, but we’re quite devoid of options today. I’d expect a Denver win in this one, meaning them covering -7 is definitely +EV.

The Heat have had a strong start to the campaign, sitting 2^nd in the East at 18-6. The Lakers have been even better, comfortably topping the West at 22-3.

LA open as 4.5-point road favourites in this one and I’m inclined to take them here. While this is a high spread, Miami are dealing with a few key injuries that could make this matchup very tough.

Both Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic have been officially ruled out here, making it much more difficult to score on a strong Lakers defence. Tyler Herro is questionable here, as are James Johnson and Derrick Jones Junior.

Although their record doesn’t necessarily show it, Miami have also been playing much worse of late. They’ve won 3 of their last 5 games via overtime, including consecutive games against the lowly Bulls and Hawks.

The Lakers are a completely different level of opponent and they’ve got a few matchup edges in this one. At the Center Spot lately, Miami has been giving a large chunk of minutes to the duo of Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk.

Neither of these guys can credibly stay on the floor against the Lakers, with LeBron and AD likely to ruthlessly hunt these mismatches. LA also have some very solid perimeter defenders that should contain the upstart backcourt of Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson.

This is only the second game of LA’s road trip and I don’t see fatigue playing an issue here. Miami’s starters have logged a ton of minutes lately and they should be the more fatigued side. With the two best players on the floor and a capable supporting cast, I’m banking on the Lake Show to get another win and cover here.

A mediocre season from the Timberwolves has them 10^th in the West at just 10-14. The Clippers have been flying high, just behind the Lakers at 19-7.

Minnesota open as 5.5-point underdogs here, a number at which I think they’re decent value. The main reason for this is injuries, with LA set to be without several key players here.

Both members of their starting backcourt have been ruled out, significantly worsening their depth. Jerome Robinson probably gets the start here, but he hasn’t proven to be up to NBA standard thus far.

Similarly, I expect the Clippers to be fatigued as this is the 5^th game of a 6-game road trip. They play tomorrow in Chicago and its always questionable which part of a B2B Kawhi will actually play on.

Minnesota enter this clash both rather healthy and well-rested. They are in the middle of a 3-game road trip without any key players expected to miss this game.

They’ve also got a very favourable matchup in the form of KAT going against Ivica Zubac. The interior is one of the few weaknesses of the Clippers, which Minny are built perfectly to exploit.

Without the quality backcourt minutes, I can see this game being one the Clippers will need to grind out. Minnesota has a chance in this one and I definitely like them through the key number of 5.

This game will be played on a neutral court in Mexico City.

The Pistons have had a mediocre start to the season, just outside the East playoff places with a 10-14 record. Dallas have been one of the surprise packages in the league thus far, 3^rd in the West at 16-7. Detroit have opened as 5.5-point underdogs on this neutral court and I’m inclined to take them here.

The altitude is typically a huge factor in Mexico City and I think this will somewhat negate Dallas’ talent advantage. This should make for a slower-paced game, which suits the interior-focused Pistons much more.

I think Detroit has a pretty noticeable edge in the frontcourt here, with Blake and Drummond against Porzingis and Powell. They should be able to win the rebounding battle and protect the rim against Luka.

I also like the production they’ve been getting from their backcourt, with Rose and Galloway providing excellent bench minutes. They’ve probably got the edge over Dallas’ second unit, which could come in handy given the altitude.

While this team tends to struggle on offence, the matchups are really in their favour here. They’ve also got some solid wing bodies to help contain Luka, which is why I can see this one being fairly close.

Games in Mexico City tend to be unpredictable and I often like to take the underdogs there. Especially over the key number of 5, the Pistons are very live dogs in this one.

The Nuggets have been solid but unspectacular so far, sitting 5^th in the West at 14-8. Portland have been a major disappointment, improving slightly to 11^th place at 10-15. Denver open as 6-point home favourites here and I’m inclined to back them.

I especially like the revenge angle here, given what happened in the playoffs. Denver is a very tough place to play and they’re a solid 8-3 at home thus far.

While it isn’t an ideal travel spot, they should be motivated to return to form after 3 straight defeats. They match up very well with this Portland side, specifically on the interior.

I love their matchup in the frontcourt, with Jokic and Millsap likely to bully the duo of Carmelo and Whiteside. Portland are also incredibly weak on the wing, which negates what is typically one of Denver’s biggest weaknesses.

They enter this one relatively healthy, especially as Jamal Murray looks very likely to play. Portland have definitely gone through the ringer from a health standpoint, with starters in Collins and Hood both out indefinitely.

Overall, this is a high-profile spot where Denver can right the wrong from game 7 in the Conference Semis. I like the edge their frontcourt has here and I expect it to propel them to a win and cover.