The only sides I really trust in the bubble at this point are the ones fighting it out for the play-in tournament out West.

With none of those sides playing today, I’m turning my attention to what looks like the best value play on the board, Miami +3.5.

The Heat should be somewhat motivated here, needing a win to secure the #4 seed and be able to rest on the final day.

There also appear to be very few injury question marks around this team, which makes this line all the more confusing.

None of their key rotation players are expected to miss this one, with Butler and Dragic looking good in their returns last time out.

Contrast that to OKC, who have a bevy of injuries to their already thin rotation.

Adams, Gallinari, Noel, and Schroder are all questionable here, while SGA also sat out against Phoenix last time out.

Not to mention the fact that I don’t see how OKC would be motivated to win here. They’d currently match up with Houston in the 4-5, actually incentivizing them to drop to 6 if possible.

If anything, this line should be reversed in favour of Miami. Assuming all their big guns play here, +3.5 is great value.

One of the few sure things on today’s card is that the Spurs will be motivated and giving it 100% here.

I think the current line of 4 points is very generous, especially when you consider that both James Harden and Eric Gordon are out.

Houston performed well without Russell Westbrook last time out, but they were reliant on a career night from Austin Rivers.

It also came against an unmotivated Sacramento side that had already been eliminated from playoff contention.

I also believe that Harden is significantly more important to Houston’s ethos than Westbrook, evidenced by their struggles without him in recent years.

Derrick White is the only real question mark for the Spurs heading into this one, but I don’t see how he sits out given the huge stakes.

The Spurs do have a legitimate shot at getting to at least a play-in, but they’re probably done if they lose this game.

Houston just don’t have the same level of motivation here and look destined to remain in the #4 seed.

Combine that with their best player being rested and I think the Spurs take this outright.

Aside from two Dame Lillard missed free-throws, the Blazers have been near perfect in the bubble so far.

They are also one of the few teams with something to play for today and I like them as narrow 1.5-point favourites here.

The Mavericks will be in the playoffs this season, likely as either the #6 or #7 seed. I don’t see what motivation they have here, especially on the back-end of a B2B.

While Luka matches up well with this Blazers side, I think the rest of the matchups favour Portland here.

Lillard has been arguably the best player of these seeding games and should have a field day against some poor defensive guards.

Portland are just a half game back of the #8 seed, which would drastically improve their odds in the play-in.

These are two rather evenly matched teams, but I think the motivation advantage and rest edge help Portland cover this relatively miniscule line.

Given the amount of injuries and uncertainty going through the bubble right now, it’s very tough to find decent plays.

From a purely line value perspective, I’m going to take OKC +5 points.

The early majority of the action has been on Phoenix so far and I can see this line going up further before tip-off.

While the Suns have played well since the bubble commenced, market perception has drastically shifted in the last week.

They were 9 point underdogs against the Clippers a week ago and now they’re 5 point favourites against OKC here.

The Thunder are objectively the better team and I think the Suns have been playing over their heads of late.

OKC are admittedly on a back-to-back and do have some injury concerns, although I’d expect Steven Adams to play here.

As good as they’ve been, Phoenix are still fairly likely to miss the playoffs and motivation could wane down the stretch. They’re also on the front end of a B2B, which could impact how they approach this one.

Overall, I’m taking the better team through the key number of 5.

This looms as the most important game of the day, one which I’d imagine both sides really want to win.

Indiana have been very impressive since the start of the seeding games and finally have their starting backcourt healthy.

Miami have had a few injury concerns of their own and will be working their way back to fitness here.

Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic are both slated to play, but are unlikely to be at full capacity after missing multiple games.

I’d also expect Kendrick Nunn to miss this one for the Heat, having only returned to the bubble on Sunday.

This leaves Miami rather short of offensive playmakers, meaning they could struggle against an improved Indiana defense.

While TJ Warren is questionable for Indiana, I don’t see any way he sits out here considering his form and history against Miami.

The Pacers should also be fairly motivated here to win and climb into the top 4, all but ensuring they avoid Philly in round 1.

I’d expect them to win this outright if Warren plays, but 2.5 points is solid insurance at this price.

I’ve been on the Grizzlies a lot during these seeding games and I plan to go back to the well here.

They currently find themselves 1.5 games up in the battle for the #8 seed and a win here would be vital.

I think they’re one of the most motivated teams in the bubble at this point and their performances should reflect that.

Toronto likely won’t have that same level of motivation, considering they’ve essentially already locked up the #2 seed.

This is also a likely letdown spot for them, with a clash against Milwaukee on deck tomorrow.

They could easily rest some of their better players here, providing an easier path for the Grizzlies.

The line currently sits at 7 points, which I think is too many on a neutral court.

Memphis have a strong motivational edge here and match up decently well with Toronto, enough that I expect them to at least keep it close.

I’m opting for another relatively large underdog here, this time taking Orlando +6.5 points.

Power Forward Aaron Gordon is currently listed as questionable and this play is dependent on him being available.

Orlando have to be disappointed in their performance so far, losing their last 3 games and slipping to the #8 seed.

I’d imagine they desperately want to avoid Milwaukee in round 1 and they’ll likely need to win this game to ultimately climb to the #7.

Boston are locked into the #3 at this point and are unlikely to come into this one with the same motivation.

They had a big win over Toronto in primetime on Saturday and this game just isn’t as important.

Their lack of viable big man options could also prove crucial here against a skilled Center like Vucevic.

Ultimately, I’m expecting a much better performance from Orlando in this one as they push for the #7 seed.

We’re starting to pay a bit of a premium on Portland here, but I still like them getting 4.5 points against the Clippers.

They’ve covered the spread in every seeding game thus far, but there’s still plenty of work for them to do.

They are currently in the driver’s seat for the #9 seed and are just 1 game behind Memphis in 8^th, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue here.

The Clippers appear relatively locked into the two seed and there isn’t a huge difference in value between the #2 and #3.

I don’t expect them to play with the same level of urgency as Portland, which could prove to be a big factor.

Patrick Beverley is likely to be out for this one, which will make life much easier for Dame and CJ in the backcourt.

Dame has been on fire of late and could be in for a big one if the likes of Reggie Jackson are ‘guarding’ him.

They’ll struggle in the matchup on the wing, but that’s why we’re getting so many points here.

They’ve got a reasonable chance of an outright win here, but I’ll take the points to be extra safe.

Phoenix have been incredibly impressive since the start of the bubble and are just 1.5 games back of the current #9 seed.

They’ve found a 5-man lineup that works well together and are playing with a great rhythm.

They’ll be super motivated to win here, while this isn’t as big of a game for Miami.

The Heat appear locked into the 4-6 range out East, with a much more important game against Indiana on deck.

They’re also facing an important injury crisis heading into this one, with Butler, Nunn, and Dragic all expected to miss.

This really limits their playmaking options and makes them a considerably easier team to defend.

The Suns are getting 2.5 points on this early line, but it wouldn’t shock me if this decreases before tip-off.

The two sides will likely put out similarly talented teams on Sunday, but Phoenix have the motivation and health advantage.

I’m opting to make my first total play of the seeding games, taking under 227 in the Spurs vs Jazz game.

This is a rather tentative line given all of the injuries involved and is subject to change prior to tip-off.

Utah appear to be decimated heading into this clash, with four of their five starters for these seeding games unavailable.

They don’t exactly have the strongest bench and I’m not sure where they’re going to get their points from here.

While the Spurs aren’t great at protecting the rim, they do have some very solid perimeter defenders that should succeed here.

They are also firmly in line for a spot in the play-in tournament and should definitely come out all guns blazing.

On the flipside, Quin Snyder is still a very solid defensive coach who should have his side ready to play.

I think they’ll slow the pace down here with less available bodies, naturally leading to a lower-scoring game.

At anything above 225 points, I’m looking to take the under here.

Everyone and their grandma is on OKC here, but I’m opting for the contrarian play of Memphis +4.5

Given all the early action on OKC, this number could move to 5 and even beyond before tip-off.

For me, this is a simple value play. I believe one side is overrated by the current market and the other is underrated.

OKC had a big win over the Lakers last time out and I think that’s a huge reason for the substantial line here.

I don’t share the same belief in this OKC side, who are relatively thin and aren’t really playing for anything here.

Schroder, Muscala, and Ferguson are all out for this game, key absences which will only accentuate their lack of depth.

As horrendous as their start to the bubble has been, the Grizzlies are still in 8^th and they control their playoff destiny.

The Jaren Jackson injury is a huge one, but I don’t expect it to prove as crucial in this matchup.

Ja Morant has played very well so far, and I don’t mind the matchups for Brooks or Valanciunas either.

I think the value of this Grizz side is either at or nearing it’s nadir, making this a decent time to jump on.

I liked this play better at the opening line of 3.5, but still see some value at the current line of 4.

The Pelicans should be one of the more motivated teams in the bubble, currently favoured to at least make the play-in game.

Winless through the bubble so far, I’m willing to put the pen through Sacramento, who need to overtake 4 teams just to come 9^th.

The Pelicans looked good against Memphis last time out, securing a double-digit win behind big scoring nights from Ingram and Zion.

I think they’ve got a much better starting five than Sacramento and also have better top-end options off the bench.

They match up especially well on the interior, with both Zion and Favors likely in line for productive games.

They’ve also got several defensive options to put on De’Aaron Fox, which should really stifle the Kings offense.

I expect a competent two-way performance from New Orleans here that gets the job done and essentially eliminates Sacramento.

While there are a few injury concerns on both sides here, the Heat currently find themselves 8.5-point underdogs.

The Bucks haven’t played particularly well in the bubble so far, losing to Houston and even the lowly Nets.

They don’t really have a huge incentive to win either, having essentially already locked up first place in the East.

Their rotations were incredibly loose against Brooklyn, with no starter logging more than 20 minutes.

Brook Lopez and Wes Matthews were both absent for that one and I don’t see them being rushed back here given Milwaukee’s conservative approach.

Conversely, Miami have a ton to play for and are currently in the driver’s seat for a 4-5 matchup with Indiana.

They’ve played hard in all 3 of their seeding games, putting up an impressive win over Boston last time out.

Jimmy Butler is out and Dragic is questionable here, but that’s why we’re receiving so many points.

They’ve still got a talented and versatile roster and I can see Bam Adebayo defending Giannis competently.

With their motivational advantage, I’d expect this to remain close late and I like the 8.5 points in a good situational spot.

I like the Grizzlies as underdogs here, currently getting 5 points against Utah. With the overwhelming majority of money coming in on the Jazz, this could easily increase before tip-off.

Despite their poor record in the seeding games thus far, Memphis should still be as motivated as anyone to win here.

They’re just 1.5 games up on Portland for the 8 seed, which they should really covet.

The Jaren Jackson injury is a major blow, but that’s why they’re getting so many points here on a neutral court.

I think Brandon Clarke is a reasonable facsimile for Jackson and shouldn’t have much trouble against Utah’s Power Forwards.

The Jazz don’t really have much to play for in this one. They appear locked into the malaise of rather even teams currently occupying the 3-6 spots.

As such, I don’t expect them to go all out for a win here, potentially testing new lineups for the playoffs.

While I like their starting five, I’ve got very limited confidence in their bench, which has essentially zero consistent options.

With 3 straight losses and an injury to one of their key players, I think Memphis’ value is at its nadir in the market.

This appears to be a good time to get on and back them through the key number of 5.

No team has had more confusing lines through the first few games of the bubble than the Denver Nuggets.

They won outright as 5-point underdogs against OKC last time out, and are now strong 5.5-point favourites against San Antonio.

I think the Spurs are very live underdogs here and should at least keep this one competitive.

They’ve got a big motivational edge here, playing for a shot at the playoffs, while Denver are essentially locked into the #3-6 malaise.

The Nuggets still have a bevy of injuries on the perimeter, with starting wings Gary Harris and Will Barton already ruled out.

Point Guard Jamal Murray is questionable here, but I’d expect him to be very limited if he does play.

This doesn’t exactly bode well for Denver against a Spurs side that has several talented young guards.

They’re playing an exciting and attacking style of ball and are firmly in contention for the play-in tournament.

They’ve got no hope of guarding Jokic here, but we’re getting great value with 5.5 points considering their other advantages.

This line could easily change before tip-off depending on Murray’s status, but I like the 5.5 while you can get it.

I’ve got a slight lean towards Phoenix here, currently listed as 9-point underdogs.

The Suns have been very competitive in these seeding games, comfortably beating Washington and upsetting Dallas.

They’re very much in the hunt for the #9 spot and should be the more motivated team here.

They also appear to be playing much more cohesively of late, with their starting lineup looking particularly dangerous.

Compare that to a Clippers side that looks essentially locked into the #2 seed and doesn’t have a lot to play for.

They’re a mercurial side at the best of times and I don’t really see them getting up for an early afternoon game against Phoenix.

With both Lou and Trez expected to miss this one, their bench continues to look fairly weak and could get outplayed by a strong Suns second unit.

After a big win over New Orleans, I think they’re still a little overvalued in the market.

With 70% of punters on the Clippers at 9, this line could definitely move before tip-off.

I’m expecting a relatively close affair here, with Phoenix able to keep it to single digits.

I’m opting for another underdog here in game 2, this time taking Portland plus 5 points.

The Blazers should be one of the more motivated teams throughout the seeding games and I expect to back them often.

They’ve covered in both of their games so far and are in the driver’s seat to earn the #9 spot.

Houston have looked very good since the return to play, notching wins against both Dallas and Milwaukee.

That said, they’ve played their starters a lot of minutes and I can see these results overvaluing them in the market.

They don’t really have too much to play for here, currently locked in the malaise of teams from #3-6.

With no home court to play for, I’m not sure we see their absolute best effort here, which Portland should be providing.

There are definite matchup advantages here that Portland can exploit.

First and foremost, I can’t see the Houston backcourt stopping Dame and CJ.

The return of Collins and Nurkic also gives Portland a strong interior that could bully Houston on the inside.

Houston definitely have a strong advantage on the wing, but that’s why we’re getting 5 points on a neutral court.

I expect Portland to keep this one very close, with the 5-point handicap potentially proving invaluable late on.

This isn’t a hugely strong play, but I lean to the Heat here, currently getting 2.5 points.

Toronto already seem very entrenched into the #2 spot out East and they won’t have the same urgency as Miami here.

They also had a huge win over the Lakers on Sunday, in what was a primetime game on national tv.

This game doesn’t have the same vibe to it and is the prime recipe for a letdown spot.

Miami also match up fairly well with this Toronto side, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

They have a bevy of wings that they can throw on Siakam and an excellent closing 5 to play during crunch time.

I think they’re also hugely motivated to win here, cementing themselves in the top 4 and potentially climbing to 3.

2.5 points is solid value, but look to see if you can get 3 closer to tip-off.

While they haven’t started well in the bubble, I’m taking the Pelicans -3.5 points here.

They absolutely need to win this game and you could argue that their season rides on it.

They’ve had two games to settle in and should realistically be amping up the minutes for their better players.

This is especially true for Zion, who’s looked good so far in very limited action.

I also like the fact that New Orleans has the rest advantage here.

Memphis are on a back-to-back in this one and I’m interested to see how they play out in the bubble.

The Grizzlies are also 0-2 in their seeding games, but appear resigned to facing a play-in tournament.

Memphis’ 2^nd unit has really struggled in the absence of Jones and Winslow and this is an area where New Orleans excel.

If the starters can do their job, I like bench pieces like Redick, Jackson, and Hart to push the advantage.

3.5 points is a bit of a premium, but that’s what you get with the huge motivational mismatch.