Update: The boycott has changed a few things, but I’m still sticking with this bet. If the Bucks players can avoid feeling oppressed at only making a combined $130 million this season, they should be able to roll here.

In what has been an incredibly uncompetitive round 1 in the Eastern Conference, this is the only series that isn’t a sweep.

The Bucks have been absolutely dominant over the last 3 games and I’m expecting more of the same here.

Orlando have fought valiantly thus far, but they’re a flawed side decimated by injuries.

I don’t see any way they can win this series, which could lead to a lack of motivation here.

The Bucks enter this clash healthy and in form, looking for another big win before their conference semi against Miami.

They match up very well with this Orlando team, especially since anyone that had a chance of guarding Giannis is out injured.

The Magic are getting plenty of looks from 3, but the problem is these are falling to pedestrian shooters at best.

I’m expecting another Giannis masterclass here as the Bucks roll to their fourth straight double-digit victory.

I see good value in Utah 1-10 here, currently paying out decent $2.75 odds.

The Jazz have been the better side in all 4 games of this series and I’d expect them to close it out with a win here.

Denver are a competitive side though and will definitely go all out in their last game of the season.

There’s talk of Gary Harris returning for this one, which would at least provide an emotional boost.

Overall, the Nuggets just can’t stop the Utah offense. Donovan Mitchell has gotten whatever he wanted all series, a trend which will likely continue here.

The Denver offense has been pretty solid of late, but this appears to be based largely off unsustainable shooting.

3-1 will be very difficult to come back from in the bubble and I don’t see it happening here.

I don’t anticipate a blowout either, meaning Jazz 1-10 falls right in that sweet spot.

I didn’t think I’d be taking Dallas ATS in this series, but here we are.

The Mavericks are getting 6.5 points in this one, which I believe is a few too many here.

Patrick Beverley has been a major miss for the Clippers these past 3 games and he is again expected to miss this one.

The Clippers are essentially without a decent backup Point Guard and we could see Reggie Jackson get picked on again here.

Dallas has had no trouble scoring on this Clippers defense, consistently getting some very good looks from 3.

It is somewhat concerning to see both Doncic and Porzingis on the injury report, but I’d expect them to both play here.

I also favour Dallas in the coaching matchup and would back him to make the necessary adjustments over Doc Rivers.

All these factors have me leaning towards Dallas +6.5, with potentially a little on the moneyline at $3.15.

The Bucks appear to have found their rhythm in the past two games, comfortably disposing of an undermanned Magic side.

This isn’t a game where I see complacency setting in either, as they still only possess a 2-1 lead.

Orlando are dealing with a myriad of injuries on the perimeter, meaning they’ve essentially got no-one to guard Giannis.

Guys like Gary Clark, James Ennis, and Wes Iwundu have been major parts of the rotation, which just isn’t good enough.

The Bucks are finally starting to shoot better from 3 as well, in part due to the high quality of looks that they’re getting.

They enter this one relatively fresh and healthy and I’m expecting another commanding win here.

I’m content laying the large 13.5 point spread here, but opt for Bucks 11+ if you’re feeling a bit more cautious.

I’m liking the Pacers as underdogs here, currently getting 7 points in game 4 against Miami.

I backed Philly in a similar scenario yesterday, with the idea that they’ll come out fighting hard in potentially their last game of the season.

This is about 3 points more than the line at the start of the series, which indicates a few points of line value on Indiana.

The Pacers aren’t a bad side and are closer in talent to Miami than their 0-3 record this series would indicate.

None of the games have been blowouts, with Miami doing enough to consistently win in the 9-12 point range.

Indiana made a few decent adjustments in game 3, namely starting Justin Holiday and taking T.J McConnell out of the rotation.

Miami are also dealing with a few injuries here, with important pieces in Crowder, Iguodala, and Jones Jr. all questionable.

The Heat can be conservative with these injuries given their lead, which would make life much easier for Indiana here.

They’re a decent side that play hard and won’t let up, even with a potential sweep on deck.

All that is enough to make me feel confident backing them plus the 7 points.

The Celtics have consistently been favoured by 4-5 points in this series and now the line has gone up all the way to 8.

The market assumption is that Boston will decimate Philly en route to a sweep, but I don’t exactly see it playing out that way.

While Boston have a very capable starting five, they’re getting next to nothing from a rather poor bench.

The starters have performed well thus far, but even a slight drop off in performance could lead to some offensive struggles here.

I’m also not sure if Philly’s better players can play worse than they have in this series so far.

Embiid has put up numbers but been inefficient, while Tobias Harris and Al Horford have been overpaid non-factors.

Each of these 3 is capable of more than they’ve shown thus far and I think the law of averages is in their favour here.

Moreover, no team wants to get blown out in what could be their last game of the season.

I’m expecting Philly to play hard in this one, while complacency could set in for Boston.

This has all the makings of a clash that is close late, meaning 8 points is good value for the underdog Sixers.

I don’t like how much this line has changed from game 3 to game 4, but I’m still bullish on Utah’s chances here.

They’ve been the better side in all 3 games this series, especially in the last two blowouts.

The injuries to Will Barton and Gary Harris have clearly been undervalued in the market, with Denver struggling mightily on the perimeter.

I’d expect the trio of Mitchell, Conley, and Ingles to have a field day here and really control the tempo of the game.

While Jokic has put up numbers through three games, I’d have to say that Gobert has got the best of that matchup thus far.

He’s patrolled the paint with incredible effectiveness and forced some of Denver’s shaky shooters to bomb from three.

Realistically, the Jazz have a much better starting five and coach in this matchup, with the chance to grab a commanding lead here.

With current lines ranging from 3 to 3.5, I like them to win and cover for the third straight time.

I’m leaning towards Milwaukee in this one, currently laying 11.5 points against a decimated Orlando side.

The Bucks have been relatively poor since the bubble started, but they’ve got a ton of matchup advantages here.

I’d expect Orlando to struggle to generate offense for the remainder of the series, which isn’t surprising when starting the trio of Gary Clark, James Ennis, and Markelle Fultz.

Orlando have been getting a ton of production from Nik Vucevic and I expect the Bucks to try and make other guys beat them here.

Milwaukee have also really struggled from 3 thus far, something which appears likely to turn around based on the law of averages.

Khris Middleton managed just two points last time out, something which I don’t anticipate continuing.

Overall, I think this matchup appears very similar to Toronto and Brooklyn yesterday.

Milwaukee are the much better team and Orlando are contending with a ton of injuries. This should really be a comfortable double-digit win.

OKC continue to garner a lot of respect in the betting markets, but I like Houston laying 3 points here.

The Rockets match up very well with this OKC side and the first two games have gone according to plan.

OKC simply don’t have any reliable options to guard James Harden, providing a ton of open looks for Houston.

Houston role players are knocking down 3’s at a decent clip and I’d expect this to continue given the quality of looks they’re getting.

The other side of the floor appears to be an even bigger problem for OKC.

They lack reliable perimeter creation and aren’t exactly a juggernaut from 3.

They simply cannot score reliably against this Houston defense, with CP3 posting a comically bad -36 last time out.

This is still an important game for Houston as a 3-0 series lead is completely different to 2-1.

If they play to their potential here, I like them to cover a relatively modest line.

I rarely like laying double digits in the NBA, but I think this is a situation where it is warranted.

The Raptors moved to a 2-0 lead in this series last time out, which I expect to be unassailable on a neutral court.

Brooklyn have been decimated by injuries throughout the bubble and are further weakened by the departure of Joe Harris.

This is a very thin lineup to begin with and they’ll really struggle to put out cohesive lineups against Toronto.

The Raptors are arguably the deepest of all contending teams, but they’ve got a very strong top 7 that matches up well with Brooklyn.

I also think they’ve got a pretty strong coaching advantage here, and should rebound off what was a relatively poor game 2 performance.

The Nets just can’t generate reliable offense against this Toronto side and I expect another loss here, likely by double digits.

Utah has been the better of these sides in both of the first two games and they get the added bonus of Mike Conley returning here.

Not only do I like them to win this game outright as underdogs, I like them to win the series at $2.50.

They looked very good defensively in game 2, with Rudy Gobert doing an excellent job patrolling the paint.

Denver have shown an inability to defend Utah’s guards in these first 2 games, a trend which should only worsen with Conley’s return.

Utah are also the better coached team here and I’ve got more trust in Quin Snyder’s ability to make correct adjustments than in Mike Malone.

The absences of Harris and Barton are really affecting Denver on the perimeter, an area where Utah has controlled the series thus far.

The 1.5 points aren’t necessary here, I’m taking the Jazz outright at $2.05.

I thought the Heat matched up very well with this Pacers side and game 1 went largely as expected.

Miami are listed as similar 3.5-point favourites for this one and I’m expecting them to take a commanding 2-0 lead.

Indiana really struggled to generate reliable offense against this excellent Heat defense.

Bam Adebayo was especially solid in game 1, locking down the Indiana perimeter players on switchers.

The Pacers also seemingly didn’t have an answer for either Jimmy Butler or Goran Dragic on defense, both of whom got to the rim with ease.

They’re at a coaching disadvantage in this matchup and I don’t really expect Nate McMillan to come up with the necessary adjustments here.

To sum it all up, Miami are the better two-way team with better top-end talent and a much better coach. I like them at this relatively paltry number.

OKC have been given a ton of respect in the betting market of late, but I think Houston match up very well with them here.

They’re laying just 2.5 points here, which I think they’re more than good enough to cover.

James Harden went off in game 1 and OKC seemingly don’t have any reliable defenders to put on him.

Their perimeter defense was atrocious in game 1, giving up a ton of open corner 3’s, which Houston made at a reasonable clip.

While the Rockets play a high variance style, corner 3’s are very good shots in the modern NBA and I’d expect them to continue making them.

OKC also really struggled on offense and couldn’t generate enough quality looks against Houston’s wings.

This is probably the key matchup in this series and I don’t trust Billy Donovan to make the necessary adjustments here.

If Harden has a similar game to game 1 and Houston’s role players can hit 3’s at a decent rate, I like their chances in this series and the playoffs in general.

I’m leaning towards Utah here, currently getting 4 points against Denver.

I’d say they’re the better team if Conley was available and he isn’t worth this many points to the spread.

Utah acquitted themselves well in game 1 and realistically should’ve won the game.

A 2-0 deficit would be very difficult to overcome in a neutral environment, so I expect them to go all in here.

I think they’re the better coached team here and would expect Quin Snyder to come up with better adjustments than Mike Malone.

A lot of their support players struggled to shoot outside in game 1, which was where Denver excelled.

If some of this shooting luck reverts back to the mean, the odds shift back in Utah’s favour here.

Gobert needs to do a better job containing Jokic, but Denver don’t exactly have any great options to put on Donovan Mitchell.

I’m expecting another close contest in this one and I’ll gladly take the 4 points on what should be the more motivated side.

The Celtics looked impressive in game 1, managing a comfortable win and cover over this Philly side.

Gordon Hayward has been ruled out for a while after an injury in game 1, meaning the Celtics are only 4.5-point favourites here.

I still think this is a favourable matchup for them and that they’ll do enough to get a 2-0 advantage.

The Ewing factor could be at play here, with the rest of the team picking up the slack to cover Hayward’s absence.

Even with the injury to Hayward, Philly don’t seemingly have an answer for the dynamic duo of Tatum and Brown.

The Celtics also have the much better coach here and I can sense some smart adjustments from Brad Stevens.

Boston also plays much harder than this Philly side, who appear to coast through too many games.

Philly have also struggled to generate reliable perimeter offense, making that Tobias Harris contract look worse by the game.

Overall, I think Boston’s defense wins them this game, with the closers on offense doing enough for the cover.

Although the Pacers are the #4 seed, I really like this game and series for the Heat.

I think they match up very well with the Pacers, especially with their perimeter defense.

Not only do they have guys like Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala to match up with Indiana’s wings, they’ve got an excellent switching Center in Adebayo.

I also think they’ve got a strong coaching advantage here and definitely back Spoelstra to figure it out against McMillan.

On the other end of the court, I can see Indiana struggling to defend some of what Miami does very well.

Jimmy Butler should be able to relentlessly get to the rim here, with shooters like Duncan Robinson getting plenty of open looks.

Currently laying 3.5 points, I think Miami starts this series with a convincing game 1 win.

A lot of people are really hyping up this series, but I think the Lakers have several huge matchup advantages here.

Portland don’t have a hope of guarding LeBron here, without a really capable defensive wing on the roster anymore.

Jusuf Nurkic has also struggled immensely to guard AD, who I think is in line for a big playoff series.

Having played so many big games over the past fortnight, I also expect Portland to be rather fatigued here.

CJ and Nurkic appear to be battling injuries, while Lillard must be running on fumes at this point, weakening an already thin roster.

The Lakers have a lot to prove this post-season, while just making this series is a big accomplishment for Portland.

Especially with such favourable matchups for their two best players, I’m backing the Lake Show to cover a relatively modest 5.5 point line here.

The Nets were considered one of the worst teams coming into the bubble, but a few decent performances and punters are now bullish on them.

They were underdogs by just as many points against Portland last time out and this Raptors side is significantly better than the Blazers.

Toronto have a group of excellent defenders, which should make life difficult for Brooklyn on offense.

On the other side, I’m not sure they’ve got anyone well equipped to guard either Siakam or Lowry.

They are so decimated with injuries that they really struggle to put out NBA quality 5-man lineups most of the time.

Toronto go 10-deep, consistently play hard, and have the best coach in the NBA.

I expect this to be a short series and for them to assert their dominance early. Raptors by double digits here.

I like the Clippers in our final game of the day, currently laying 5.5 points.

They haven’t turned it on all that often this season, but I believe this to be the most talented roster in the NBA.

As I outlined in my series preview yesterday, they match up incredibly well with this Dallas side.

They’ve got great options to put on both Luka and Porzingis, while I think PG and Kawhi should be able to score effectively.

If they can contain Luka, the Mavs aren’t nearly as dangerous of a team, especially considering their injuries.

The Mavs have also been a very poor defensive team this season, which isn’t great against a talented Clippers offense.

I think people have been sleeping on the Clippers of late and that they’ll show up here with a big win in primetime.