This line appears to be predicated on Giannis not being available and that’ll be my assumption here.

With that in mind, I think this is the game where Miami closes out the series, covering the 2.5-point line in the process.

They match up very well with this Milwaukee team defensively and have consistently been the better side all series.

Khris Middleton had easily his best game of the series in game 4, going for 36 points, 8 boards, and 8 assists in a whopping 48 minutes of action.

The Bucks need similar production from him to win this one and I just don’t think he has it in him.

Miami have a bevy of defensive options to make life difficult for him, namely Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala.

On the other end of the floor, Dragic and Butler really struggled en route to a combined 11/32 from the field in game 4.

This is another stat I’d expect to turn around in game 5, with Milwaukee struggling to replicate their defence from the regular season.

I think the Heat are the better coached of these two teams and would trust Spoelstra to make the right adjustments after a loss.

This is a golden opportunity to earn a surprise trip to the Conference Finals and I just don’t see them blowing it here.

I think the line and total are relatively well set for this game, although I have a slight lean to Lakers -5 here.

That said, I believe there is better value on offer in the prop market, where I’ll take Russel Westbrick Westbrook under 22.5 points.

He hasn’t been nearly the same player since returning from injury and is actively hurting Houston in this series.

I’d expect less of the offense to run through him here, with more playmaking to come from Harden and Eric Gordon.

In 5 games since his return to action, Westbrook has only gone over 22.5 points once and he required 24 field goal attempts to get there.

His minutes have also been lower than usual, yet to go over 34 during that 5-game span.

He can’t make anything from 3, shooting 0%, 20%, and 14.3% over his last 3 games.

I’d expect to see more of Anthony Davis at the 5 going forward, which should mean even less easy points at the rim for Russ.

Overall, I’m not expecting him to reverse his fortunes here and like the look of under 22.5 at current odds.

While the scoreboard says this series is even, I think Boston have clearly been the better side in this series through 4 games.

I like them to bounce back after suffering consecutive defeats and cover the modest 1-point line here.

Absolutely nothing went Boston’s way in game 4, yet they were still in it until the very end.

They shot a miserable 7/35 from deep, with their starters combining to go 5/29 on what were some decent looks.

If they can be competitive with those types of numbers, I think they’ve got a great chance of winning when shooting at their usual efficiency.

Their bench has also looked better than expected this series, with Ojeleye, Wanamaker, and Robert Williams all providing solid reserve minutes.

Each of Siakam, Lowry, and Van Vleet has played an absolute ton of minutes this series and I can see them getting fatigued late.

If we see a better game from Boston’s starters, I think they win a pivotal game 5 here.

The early bird definitely got the worm here, with this line moving from 7.5 to 8.5 and even 9 at some spots.

Much like my tip on the Lakers yesterday, I’m fancying the zig zag theory to help the Clippers win here.

Despite an awful showing in game 2, this line is still a full point lower than it was last time out.

This doesn’t make all that much sense to me, as I’d expect the Clippers to come out with much greater motivation here.

Much like Boston, the Clippers didn’t get much from their best players, with Kawhi and PG combining to go just 11/36 from the field.

This isn’t because of a bad matchup either, with Denver lacking any reliable options to put on the two.

I’d expect a resurgent performance from there here, with the role players also likely to shoot better than 28% from 3.

When they’re locked in and motivated, this Clippers team is comfortably the best in the NBA right now.

I think we’ll see a game similar to game 1 here, where the Clippers simply out-talent Denver and cover the 8.5 points in the process.

Given the uncertainty surrounding injuries in this potential closeout game, I’m opting for a player prop here.

Despite playing relatively well in this series, I like the look of Tyler Herro under 14.5 points in this one.

For starters, he’s currently battling an injury and is only probable for game 4 due to a bruised right hip.

I wouldn’t expect him to be at 100% here, which could limit his minutes and opportunities to impact the game.

He is also heavily reliant on outside shots to make up the majority of his points scored.

He’s a decent shooter from 3 at 38% on the season, but this is still far from a lockdown shooter.

I thought the Bucks did a better job defensively in game 3 and I wouldn’t expect as many open looks for Herro here.

With a potential lack of minutes and a high variance 3-point shot, I think under 14.5 is the best prop on the board here.

After one team gets beat comfortably in game 1, you’d expect the line to move in their favour for game 2.

The exact opposite has happened here, with the Lakers listed as 5.5-point favourites, after closing as 6.5-point favourites in game 1.

I’m relying somewhat on the zig-zag theory here, but the line value appears to be clearly on LA.

They’ve got numerous matchup advantages in this series, especially on the interior.

Anthony Davis was comfortably their best player in game 1 and I’m expecting more of the same from him here.

Houston had had a ton of wear and tear throughout these playoffs, especially given their high-stakes games against OKC in round 1.

They’re bound for a letdown game sometime soon and this has the potential to be the perfect candidate.

3-point shooting luck also went heavily against the Lakers in game 1, shooting just 28% on 38 attempts.

They’re not an especially good 3-point shooting team, but the law of averages suggests this should increase here.

I think the line is very well placed in this one, so I’ll opt for a total play here.

Points have been hard to come by this series, yet the line hasn’t moved significantly in any of the 4 games.

I like the look of under 214.5 points here in what should be a very competitive game.

It seems both sides are going with very short rotations in this series, which should lead to less possessions overall.

Most starters are playing around 40 minutes this series, so I’m expecting a slower pace here as they look to conserve energy.

Both sides can play some excellent defensive lineups, making it very difficult for their opponents in the half-court.

This has been a defensive series through 3 games and I’m expecting more of the same the rest of the way.

I normally don’t like betting against teams after getting blown out, but in a 2-game slate I’m happy to take the Clippers again here.

They methodically destroyed Denver in game 1 and I’d expect more games in this series to go just like that.

Despite such an uncompetitive game, the line hasn’t shifted one way or the other and is still Clippers -8.5 points.

The main weakness of Denver’s team is on the wing, which is just a horrendous matchup against the Clippers.

Kawhi has been the best player in the NBA throughout these playoffs and I expect his dominance to continue with this favourable matchup.

Each of their main rotation players are now fit and firing, which is a huge thing for this Clippers side.

The return of Pat Beverley is especially important as it gives them another defensive option on Jamal Murray.

Assuming they play up to their potential here, a double-digit win appears likely.

The stakes couldn’t be any higher for Milwaukee here, yet they’re smaller favourites than they were in game 2.

I’m banking on the zig-zag theory to be in full effect in this one as they win and cover the 5-point spread.

The Bucks looked much better in the 2^nd half of game 2, playing with a defensive intensity that really troubled Miami.

They’ve got no excuse not to come out with the same intensity here, which should really limit the Heat offense.

They were also relatively unlucky from a shooting perspective in game 2.

They shot just 43% from the field overall, including a miserable 7-25 from 3.

This is a team that gets some very good open looks and I’m banking on them converting at a higher clip here.

Miami have also shot uncharacteristically well from 3, shooting over 40% in the series so far on some high volume.

They’ve got some shaky shooters from deep and variance could definitely go the other way here.

Overall, Milwaukee are the more talented side here and have a huge motivational edge.

Their season is absolutely on the line, and I expect them to play like it en route to a win and cover.

I think the spread and total look very accurate for game 1 in this series, so I’m opting for a series play here.

The Lakers have several matchup advantages and I’m predicting them to win the series in 6, currently paying a healthy $4.

I think they’ve got a very strong advantage on the interior, with a huge frontcourt going against Houston’s undersized bigs.

Anthony Davis should be able to thrive throughout this series, especially with Tucker and Covington likely fatigued after a long first-round series.

This is a very short turnaround for Houston after such an emotional series, where the Lakers advanced through round 1 at a canter.

I’d expect this to negatively affect both Harden and Westbrook, who are known to fade late when tired.

A rested LeBron is also the best player in this series and I’d expect him to run the show offensively.

If the games get close down the stretch, I’d back him to close it out more often than not.

Houston are a talented side that can beat anybody on their day and the Lakers are hardly the beacon of consistency.

But that’s why I’m predicting it to go 6 games. Expect the Lakers talent and rest edge to ultimately win out in the playoff format.

Well done to Denver for pulling off an incredible comeback to beat Utah in round 1.

Your reward is … getting slapped up by Kawhi and the Clippers here.

The starting odds suggest that this series is a huge mismatch and I’m inclined to agree.

I like the Clippers here at the -2.5 games handicap, currently paying out $1.65.

This means they need to win the series in either 4 or 5 games, which I think is certainly very possible.

Denver are sure to be fatigued after such a gruelling first round series, while the Clippers have gotten a ton of rest over the past week.

They’re set to enter the conference semis much healthier and fitter than they were for round 1, especially with Pat Beverley likely to return.

I also think they match up very well with this Denver team, especially on the wing.

Denver don’t have any answers for Kawhi or Paul George, which should lead to some big struggles this series.

Kawhi was quietly dominant in the 6-game series win over Dallas, a team I view as slightly better than this Denver side.

I’m expecting a relatively short series here, one where the Clippers win in 5 or less. If you’re after a bit of extra value, 4-1 at $3 looks like the best available option.

I cashed with the under in game 1 and I’m leaning towards under in game 2, with a very similar total of 221.5.

I’m expecting a relatively slow-paced game here as both sides look to further thin out their rotations.

Milwaukee need to be giving their best players 40+ minutes here, which should naturally lead to less possessions and lower expected scores.

The outside shooting in game 1 was better than I had expected, with the two sides combining to shoot over 40% from 3.

Jimmy Butler also vastly exceeded expectations offensively, going 13-20 from the field and putting up 40 points.

Neither of these things was enough to go over the total in game 1 and I’d expect both to somewhat revert back to the mean here.

Some early sharp money has come in on the under, so if you like this play, I’d advise getting on this before the line shifts further downward.

I typically really like the under in game 7’s, as we saw in the Denver vs Utah clash yesterday.

The problem is that this points total is already 8.5 points lower than what we saw in game 6 and I’m not sure the value remains at just 218 points.

As such, I’ll opt for a spread play here and take the underdog Thunder +5.5 points.

This number on a neutral suggests that there’s a huge gulf in class between the two sides, something that I’m just not seeing.

OKC didn’t even play particularly well in game 6, yet still managed to eke out a narrow victory.

I think there’s definitely room for better contributions from SGA, Schroder, And Adams here, which will only make them more competitive.

The pressure involved with a game 7 tends to make jump shots more difficult and Houston are heavily reliant on the 3.

We all remember the 27 consecutive misses against Golden State two years ago and a similar style meltdown isn’t out of the question here.

Westbrook is clearly out of sorts after his return from injury and I can see Harden waning down the stretch in a game where he likely plays big minutes.

I think we’re ultimately in for a pretty competitive game and I’ll gladly take the dog here through the key number of 5.

I’m going with the zig-zag theory here and predicting Toronto to bounce back from a heavy defeat in game 1.

This is essentially a must-win game for the Raptors as 0-2 would be incredibly tough to come back from in this series.

I thought a lot of shooting luck went against them last time out, something which is likely to revert back to the mean here.

They’re usually an excellent 3-point shooting team, but shot just 25% on 40 attempts, including some very good looks.

Boston were an unsustainably good 43.6% from 3, including 5-9 from the usually streaky Marcus Smart.

I consider Nick Nurse to be the best coach in the NBA at this point and would expect some good adjustments that help them get off to a fast start here.

The Celtics have an incredibly weak bench and will likely find it difficult to bounce back if they go down early.

The line has shifted a point in Toronto’s favour after game 1 and I’m backing them for the win and cover here.

The total has gone over in 13 of the 14 Denver games since the bubble started.

Naturally, I’m going for the complete opposite here and playing the under.

Game 7 totals are typically 5 points lower than the average series line, where this total opens higher than it did in game 6.

While the games have been relatively high-scoring so far, both sides have been shooting unsustainably well from deep.

Game 6 was a relatively slow-paced game, but the two sides combined to make an incredible 36-72 from 3.

A lot of this has been fuelled by Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell, and the opposing defences would be wise to start double-teaming them here.

Game 7 naturally has a lot more pressure involved and I don’t see these looks going in as easily.

If this shooting luck subsides and they keep playing at the same pace, I’m relatively confident in under 218.5 here.

I’m opting for a total play in this one, going under the current total of 223 points.

I think both sides have fairly good defensive matchups here, something that isn’t reflected in the current line.

Miami don’t exactly have the best offense and they’re coming up against a buzz saw in the form of Milwaukee here.

Jimmy Butler just isn’t the same offensive player he used to be, shooting an atrocious 24% from 3.

I expect the Bucks to give a ton of open looks to the likes of Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala, but I don’t see them making these at a reliable clip.

On the flipside, the Heat are an excellent defensive side and I think they can contain the Bucks offense here.

Milwaukee are heavily reliant on Giannis to generate essentially everything and Miami have several capable bodies to put on him.

This puts pressure on some of Milwaukee’s secondary offensive players, who haven’t delivered throughout the bubble.

223 points is an above average total even in the modern NBA and I don’t see what the two sides have done to warrant such a high total.

I’m expecting a rock fight here and for most games in this series, with a strong lean towards under 223 points.

I’m giving the edge to Toronto in this game and in the overall series.

Boston are already a rather thin side and I think the Gordon Hayward injury could loom large here.

Toronto has arguably the best 8-man rotation in the playoffs and I think they match up reasonably well with Boston.

One reason the Celtics have outperformed of late is that Brad Stevens is much better than most coaches he comes up against.

This won’t be the case here, as Nick Nurse is very much his equal in terms of coaching ability.

I think Kyle Lowry will be a key man in this series and the fact that he’s likely to go is encouraging for Toronto.

They’ve got an excellent starting five defensively, one which I think can trouble Boston’s perimeter players.

O.G Anunoby is arguably the best perimeter defender in the league at this point and I think he can contain Tatum reasonably well.

The Celtics are also quite weak on the interior, which doesn’t bode well against the solid Ibaka and Gasol duo.

Overall, I think the Raptors matchup advantages on defense win them this game and series, covering a modest 2.5-point spread in the process.

Update: I had Utah before the boycott and I still like them in this one. The extra days off should help their thin rotation rest up and also counteracts the Denver momentum from game 5.

I’ve been on Utah for most of this series and I’m banking on them to close this one out here.

Jamal Murray was excellent down the stretch in game 5, but I don’t think he can replicate that performance here.

I’ve mentioned throughout this series that I think Quin Snyder is the better of these two coaches. This tends to be particularly valuable after a loss and I’d expect him to come up with some good adjustments here.

Utah’s defense definitely waned in game 5 and a better effort here will make it that much tougher for Denver to score.

On the flipside, Denver’s defense continues to struggle and they’ve shown no answer for Donovan Mitchell all series.

Utah has the better of these two starting fives with Harris and Barton out and I think they take it to Denver early and often here.

With a modest line of just 1.5 points, this bet essentially comes down to who we think will win the game outright.

If Utah continue to get capable support from their role players, I like their chances here.