Not a ton of markets to choose from here, so I’ll stick with the Lakers -7.5 points that worked so well in game 1.

Game 1 seemed to confirm a lot of the thoughts I had about this series, namely that the Nuggets couldn’t hang with the Lakers.

A 12-point margin makes this game look much closer than it actually was, with the Lakers leading by 24 at 3-quarter time.

While their comebacks have been impressive, let’s not forget just how bad this team looked against both Utah and the Clippers.

Denver don’t match up well with this Lakers side, especially against their two best players.

LeBron can get whatever he wants against these weak Denver wing defenders, likewise for Anthony Davis against their bigs.

It was a good but not incredible shooting day for the Lakers in game 1, something which should keep up with the quality of looks they’re getting.

The only thing standing in their way here is complacency, which showed up in game 1 against Portland and Houston.

If they play to their potential here, I’d expect a relatively convincing wire-to-wire win.

I’m tipping the Celtics to win here, covering the 2.5-point line in the process.

Boston’s season is essentially on the line here and I think they’ll come out all guns blazing as a result.

They looked very good to start game 2, getting out to a big early lead before blowing it late.

When playing at their peak, they look like the more talented of these two sides and they should have a huge motivational edge here.

There are several adjustments the Boston coaching staff can make and I’d expect a good game plan from Brad Stevens here.

Reports emerged of a blow-up in the Celtics locker room after game 2, something which I can see galvanizing them going forward.

The fact that the line is only 2.5 points here is somewhat surprising, considering this has barely moved from the game 1 opening line.

I’m relying somewhat on the zig-zag theory here, but this is an excellent spot for Boston, while also looking like a potential letdown game for Miami.

If we see a better effort from Boston here, they should be able to win and cover this modest line.

After an epic comeback against Utah in round 1, the Nuggets had a real letdown spot in game 1 of the Conference Semis and were blown out by the Clippers.

I can see something similar happening here, which is why I’ll take the Lakers -7 points.

The Lakers match up quite well with this Denver side, who doesn’t appear to have anyone who can guard LeBron James.

In terms of defenders who can contain Jokic, there may not be a better fit in the entire NBA than Anthony Davis.

Davis has the speed and length to give Jokic some trouble and shouldn’t have any difficulty scoring on him on the other end.

Denver showed great resiliency to fight back against the Clippers, but let’s remember they were down 3-1 and double digits in almost each game to begin with.

That alone suggests that this is a flawed team and I think the comeback was more so due to a capitulation by the Clippers.

The Lakers have looked locked in since the playoffs started and I don’t see them making the same mental mistakes.

I’d like to be wrong here, but I’m expecting a Lakers win to open what should be a relatively uncompetitive Western Conference Finals.

I’m opting for a prop play in this one, going with Jae Crowder over 11.5 points.

Crowder has comfortably gone over this number in each of his last 5 games and I expect that trend to continue here.

He has proven his value over the past two series, averaging around 35 minutes per game.

He is also getting considerably more shooting opportunities than the regular season, averaging 11 shots a game since the conference semis started.

A lot of these are open looks from 3, a shot that Crowder has proven to be relatively capable of hitting.

He shot over 43% on over 10 3’s a game in the conference semis, and made 5/9 against Boston last time out.

Given the other threats on the Heat offence, I expect more open looks for Crowder here.

At this rather low number, even a few field goal makes gets us the over.

I’m opting for another prop for my second play, this time taking Kemba Walker over 5.5 assists at $2.15

I think this is an accurate line, but we’re getting an extra 28 cents of value compared to the typical $1.87 prop price point.

Kemba should have the ball in his hands a lot here and I expect Boston’s defence to force him to pass.

He had 6 assists in game 1 and probably would’ve had more if not for some shaky finishing by his team mates.

Minutes should also be in his favour here, as I’d expect him to play somewhere between 38-42.

His outside shooting just hasn’t been there in recent games and I can see him being more pass-happy as a result.

Throw in the fact that he’s surrounded by good shooters and has gone over in 4 of his last 5 games and I like that trend continuing here.

I’m opting for a series play here in the Eastern Conference Finals, taking the Celtics outright at $1.80 here.

This is largely a line value play, based on how much the odds have shifted after Miami’s win over Milwaukee.

Miami were very impressive in an uncompetitive 5-game series, but Milwaukee just weren’t the same team that they were in the regular season.

The Celtics looked equally as impressive in their win over Toronto and I think they were largely unlucky to have to play 7 games.

I rate them as the better of these two sides and give their starting lineup a definite edge.

Kemba Walker is the exact type of guard that gives the Heat defence problems and I can see him being a focal point here.

The Celtics looked also looked locked in on defence against Toronto and I can see the Heat really struggling to score during this series.

Overall, I’ll take the better side to win the series on a neutral court at $1.80.

The total in this series started at 224 points and we’ve gradually seen it dip throughout the series.

It is now 17 points lower than it was in game 1 and I’m inclined to take the line value on the over.

Game 7’s typically open with a lower total, but I think this adjustment is far too much in this case.

For starters, this game is likely to be relatively close down the stretch.

Given that it’s a game 7, it’s fairly likely that we see the free throw game late, which could artificially add 10 points or so.

The Clippers have also not been shooting well from the field lately, including shooting a pedestrian 41% last time out.

Denver lack any real top-end wing defenders, which should create some nice looks for Kawhi and PG.

Montrezl Harrell has also been an absolute sieve defensively, providing a really favourable matchup for Jokic.

I’m not expecting a super high scoring game, but the over looks like a +EV play here.

I liked this line better at the 7.5 opener, but I think the Clippers are still the right side at -8.5.

Denver have done an excellent job this series, playing hard and generally keeping things competitive.

I think they’ve been playing at their absolute peak lately, while there is plenty of room for the Clippers to improve.

Doc Rivers is the better of these two coaches and I’d back him to make the right adjustments coming off a loss.

I’d expect a tighter rotation from the Clippers here, with defensive sieves in Harrell and Williams likely to get less minutes.

This should make life harder for Denver on the offensive end, where they shot a comfortable 44% from 3 last time out.

Having seen the Lakers demolition of the Rockets yesterday, I think we see a motivated Clippers side that wants to end the series here.

If they’re able to lift their game while Denver just stays at the same level, I like their ability to win and cover here.

I’m going to take Houston here in an underdog spot, currently getting 7 points against the Lakers.

The Rockets have been atrocious for large stretches over the past 3 games and I’m primarily backing on them getting better play from their top players here.

They shot just 43% from the field in game 4, including a terrible 2/11 performance from James Harden.

Especially if they stick to the super small lineup they tried in game 4, I’d expect both of these numbers to increase here.

I’d also expect a much better effort on the boards, were they were outrebounded by a whopping 52-26.

Much like we saw in the Clippers/Nuggets game yesterday, the underdog has everything to play for here.

A loss for Houston in this one and the futures of D’Antoni, Westbrook, and even Harden are all in question.

I think we see a more motivated and locked-in performance from the Rockets here, while the Lakers may let up just a touch.

They may not win the game straight up, but 7 points provides us with enough of a cushion if they can keep it close.

This series looks to be pretty much over from a competitive standpoint, but there’s a player prop that I see some value in.

The Clippers have been selling out to contain Jamal Murray all series and I’m expecting him to go under his point total of 23.5.

Murray must be running on fumes by this point, playing 6 of the last 11 days and averaging over 40 minutes a game.

He has struggled mightily offensively this series, shooting a paltry 37.6% from the field.

This is because the Clippers are putting a lot of their best defenders on him and forcing him to become a distributor.

Murray has only come close to going over this total in 1 of his last 5 games and I’m expecting another difficult night at the office for him here.

I can’t see him playing more minutes than the 44 he got last time out and I don’t see the quality of his looks increasing either.

I think Boston have been the better team in 5 of the 6 games this series and are only in this predicament because of some questionable refereeing decisions.

They appear to have figured out Toronto’s half-court offence, making life very difficult for the likes of VanVleet and Siakam.

Their starting five appears to be very well-balanced and has essentially played Toronto’s bigs off the floor.

They had a bit of a down night offensively in game 6, with Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown really struggling from the field.

Odds are that this won’t happen again and a better offensive night from this duo would definitely make the Celtics favourites in this one.

Fatigue could be somewhat of an issue here, but a lot of the Raptors top guys also played a ton of minutes and are also older.

The stats suggest that Boston has been the better side in this series and I think $1.75 is enough to pull the trigger on them advancing here.

I’m going heavy on the exotics in this one, taking Eric Gordon to make more 3’s than Danny Green at $1.80.

Green has been on a marked decline over the past two seasons, largely due to his reduced ability to make the 3-point shot.

He’s shooting just 34% from 3 in these playoffs, slightly up from an even worse mark during the seeding games.

He also isn’t getting that many minutes, only averaging 27 per game for the post-season.

Eric Gordon is not only attempting more 3’s than Green, he’s also making them at a better rate and playing more minutes.

He’s averaged 35 minutes per game during this series, a number which could increase given Houston’s thin rotation.

He is taking 8.7 3’s per game this series, making an average of 3.7 for 40% from deep.

I think he plays more minutes than Green here and gets at least a few more attempts, making him odds on to hit more 3’s.

I’m opting for another head to head bet here, taking James Harden to have more assists than Rondo at $2.

Rondo has his first good game over the last two years and all of a sudden people think he’s Steph Curry.

He’s still working his way back into shape after injury and is yet to eclipse 30 minutes in this series.

Compare that to Harden, who should play around 40 minutes here in what is a critical must-win game for Houston.

He has the ball in his hands on almost every possession and is averaging over 7.5 assists for both the regular and postseason.

I think he’s on course for around 7-9 assists here, which would be tough for Rondo to beat in ~25 minutes.

The line has shifted dramatically in Toronto’s favour here, but I’m not confident they’ll be able to pull this one out.

Instead, I’ll stick with what has been a relatively consistent total market thus far and take under 210.5 points.

Both of these sides have been heavily reliant on their starters this series, with the top guys regularly playing over 40 minutes.

This has led to a slower-paced series overall, with less possessions and less scoring as a result.

Especially with Toronto only 1 loss from elimination, I’m expecting a very thin rotation from Nick Nurse here.

Both sides have excellent half-court defences and have also done an effective job at reducing typically easy transition buckets.

The total has gone under this 210.5 number in every game this series and I think we’re in for another rock fight here.

Free throws could be a worry if Toronto is down close late, but I still lean to the under at current odds.

I think the Clippers are clearly the better team in this series, but they definitely haven’t given their best effort through 3 games.

I don’t feel confident backing them at the current 8-point line, instead opting for the prop play of Jamal Murray over 5.5 assists.

The Clippers are essentially selling out on defense to contain Murray, opting to try and let other Nuggets beat them.

They are regularly either doubling him or putting their best defenders on him, which is a major reason behind his lacklustre scoring efforts so far.

That said, I think this opens up a ton of passing opportunities for Murray, who regularly has the ball in his hands.

He has gone over 5.5 assists in all 3 games this series and appears to generate consistent open looks for his teammates.

Given Denver’s deficit in this series, I’d also expect him to play around 40 minutes here in what is a must-win game, further boosting his chances of hitting the over.