We’ve got a very barren slate today, so I’m opting for a total play in the first game of the day. Both sides have a bunch of key injuries in this one, making me lean towards under 225.5 points.

Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose are both sitting out for Detroit here, which should really negatively impact their offense. Atlanta also have 5 key rotation players set to miss this one, which should also bring down their scoring.

Detroit are a poor offensive team at the best of times and losing two of their best offensive players could prove catastrophic. I’d expect this total to decrease further before tip-off, so get in quick if you’re on the same side.

We’ve got a rare multi play here, with Denver and Utah both expected to defeat relatively weak opposition. Both sides are currently $1.35 as 7.5-point favourites, but combine for a decent $1.82 price point.

Denver should get back on track against a relatively weak Houston team here, who are missing several of their key players. Having already lost twice to start the season, I’d expect full effort from Denver in what could be a blowout.

I’d also expect Utah to rebound with a win over OKC after a shock loss to Minnesota last time out. OKC have a relatively barren roster and are the only side in the West that appear to be tanking. A healthy and motivated Jazz team off a loss should be too much here.

This is the classic revenge spot after losing to the same team the day before. The Wizards were 2-point favourites in this exact matchup yesterday and we’re getting them laying just 1 point here.

Looking at yesterday’s box score, the main reason for Washington’s loss was their atrocious 53% free throw shooting. They also shot under 50% from the field and only 35% from 3, both of which can be improved against a suspect Orlando defense.

The Wizards are also the deeper of these two sides, which could be a key factor on a back-to-back. Orlando don’t match up particularly well with Washington, especially given their frontcourt injuries and lack of backcourt depth.

Overall, I quite like the revenge angle for Washington here. I think they’ve got the two best players on the court and a strong game from their backcourt should lead to a win and cover.

I like the look of Toronto here, currently laying 1.5 points against the Spurs. Toronto are one of the best-coached sides in the NBA and were excellent off a loss last season.

They enter this match with all of their key players available, while the Spurs are still without Derrick White. The Spurs are also really thin on the wing and I’d expect them to struggle to match up with the likes of Siakam and Anunoby.

Toronto shot very poorly against New Orleans in game 1, something I wouldn’t expect against this poor Spurs defense. I don’t see the Spurs making that up on the other end of the floor, resulting in a relatively comfortable Raptors win here.

This projects as a very close matchup and I think there’s just too much value on Sacramento +4 here. Phoenix hype appears to be at it’s absolute apex right now and there could be value fading them over the coming games.

The Kings had a very impressive start to the season, going into Denver and sneaking a late win. Phoenix have a ton of expectations after their run in the bubble, but I think it’s time to temper expectations.

Home court is around 1.5 points right now and I wouldn’t put Phoenix 5.5 points better than Sacramento on a neutral. The Kings are a deep roster that should be competitive here. Especially if it goes to the free-throw game, I’ll happily take 4 points.

I’m going to take Boston here as a home underdog, currently getting 3.5 points. This is primarily due to the line value, with this line already moving 2.5 points in their favour.

I presume this is because of Brooklyn’s big win in game 1, which I don’t put a huge amount of stock in. Not only were Golden State suffering from key injuries, they also missed a ton of easy and open looks.

Boston looked very good to open the season, pulling off an upset win over Milwaukee. It looks like they’ve been downgraded off that performance, which just doesn’t make sense to me.

I think they match up well with this Brooklyn side, particularly with their army of wings against KD. This coaching staff knows Kyrie’s game inside out and I think they’ll take advantage of his defensive weaknesses here.

Ultimately, this projects as a close game that could go either way. Especially through the key number of 3, I’ll take the home underdog and the points.

This Lakers side was excellent off a loss last season and I’d expect that to continue here. They came up against a very motivated Clippers side last time out and just couldn’t overcome a huge early deficit.

I particularly like the matchup on the interior for LA, with their excellent bigs coming up against an undermanned Dallas frontcourt. They should be able to feast inside here, putting a ton of pressure on Luka on the opposite end.

While the Mavericks have gotten a ton of hype this off-season, take out Porzingis and they look very thin indeed. The Lakers are still one of the best defensive sides in the NBA and I expect Dallas to struggle with outside shooting here.

This is also another case of a curious line movement, with the Lakers moving from -7 to -5.5. I usually don’t like to go against reverse line movement, but I’ll take the more talented and motivated team at this small number.

I like the new-look Hornets to start the season with a win here, laying 1.5 points away at Cleveland. The Cavs have a thin roster to begin with, but they’ll be without several key pieces here.

Kevin Love, Kevin Porter, and the Aussie duo of Exum and Delly have all been ruled out, meaning Cleveland should really struggle on the perimeter. This bodes well for Charlotte, with the likes of Hayward, Graham, and Ball ready to capitalise.

I’d expect the Hornets to also win the 2^nd unit battle, with the Cavs bench lineup looking especially suspect.

Overall, we’ve got the talent and health advantage with Charlotte here at a very small line. If they’re to compete this season, these are games they simply have to win. This line looks to be moving fast, so I recommend getting in soon if you like the same side.

Much like the Cavaliers, Orlando enter this season decimated on the perimeter. They are without 3 of their top forwards in Jon Isaac, Aminu, and James Ennis.

Conversely, Miami enter this season fully healthy after an excellent showing in the most recent playoffs. They match up very well defensively with Orlando and should be able to contain the focal points in Vucevic and Evan ‘Don’t Google Me’ Fournier.

I also like the match up for the Miami guards here, with the likes of Dragic and Herro well-equipped to go off against the weak Magic perimeter defence. Given the injuries to Orlando’s forwards and I’d also expect a big night from Jimmy Butler here.

These two sides have built up a bit of a rivalry in recent seasons, so this is a game where I’d expect full effort from Miami. Factor in that there’s very little travel from Miami to Orlando and I’m comfortable laying 4.5 points here.

NBA opening days tend to produce a few upsets and I like the look of Golden State +7.5 points here. The vast majority of the action has been coming in on the Nets and this is a scenario where I’m comfortable fading the public.

Draymond Green has been ruled out for this one, but this has moved the line too many points in my opinion. Golden State has better supporting players than they did last season and should be competitive here.

This is the first game Kyrie and KD are playing together, with the Nets also having a rookie head coach. I expect this team to underachieve in the regular season, especially early on.

Brooklyn don’t have anyone capable of stopping Steph Curry, who could be in for a big offensive night here. Getting 7.5 points, we just need the Warriors to keep this relatively close late on. I’m predicting them to do just that in what should be a scrappy game against a Rusty Nets side.

I’m also going to take a contrarian underdog in the 2^nd game of the day, taking the Clippers +2.5 points. I expect them to come out with a point to prove this season and this game represents the perfect opportunity to do so.

While the Lakers may have won a mickey mouse ring last season, you can make a strong argument that the Clippers are the better side. They are even in most of the betting power rankings, meaning that getting 2.5 points on a neutral court is great value.

The Lakers perimeter defence took a step back this off-season and I can see them struggling to guard the Clippers’ all-star wing duo.

Overall, I think the Clippers come out ready here and pull off the opening night upset. Even if this one is close late, the 2.5 points of extra value gives us a decent shot at a backdoor cover.

The Lakers figure as the more talented side than this Heat squad, but Miami have shown they just won’t go away.

I think the best way to attack this angle is by taking the Lakers by 1-10 points here, currently paying out $2.80.

Miami needed an other-worldly performance from Jimmy Butler to win game 5, putting up a 35-point triple-double in 47 minutes of action.

With less than 48 hours rest in between games 5 and 6, you have to wonder whether fatigue will be an issue for him here.

Miami also shot 42% from 3 and 95% from the free-throw line in game 5, numbers I’m not sure are sustainable going forward.

We know what to expect from LeBron and AD at this point, so this game likely hinges on the Lakers role players playing better here.

Ultimately, I’m not sure we can expect the same level of performance from Jimmy and Duncan Robinson in game 5, while the Lakers performance level has generally remained constant.

With a healthy Adebayo and Dragic, I’d probably take Miami here, but I think we ultimately end the season with a narrow Lakers win.

This has been one of the most underwhelming NBA seasons in recent memory and I’m expecting it to come to a close here.

The injuries suffered by Miami in game 1 were devastating and realistically ended any chance we had of a competitive series.

I expect the Lakers to be in the lead after every quarter in this one, currently paying a generous $2.40.

This bet has cashed in 3 of the 4 games in this series and essentially hinges on the Lakers getting out to an early lead.

A lot went right for Miami in game 4, yet they couldn’t do enough to win and I can see this one easily getting away from them.

The Lakers have been very vocal in the media about the need to start quickly and they’ve definitely got the better of the two starting lineups.

While I think it may be a relatively close first half, the Lakers talent edge should see them ahead at both quarter time and half time.

They should then coast to a win in the second half, allowing us to win our $2.40 bet in the process.

I’m going to take the same bet as last time here, backing the Lakers HT/FT at decent $1.75 odds.

It took a very unlikely set of circumstances for Miami to win last time out and I don’t see that repeating here.

If the Lakers are in top gear, this injury-riddled Heat team just can’t match them in this series.

LeBron and AD weren’t anywhere near as intense as they were in game 1 and 2 last time out, which had a knock-on affect on the whole team.

The Heat also required something extraordinary from Jimmy Butler, who knocked in a 40-point triple double.

Butler has not been a good outside shooter this season and I’d expect him to be guarded more by LeBron here, which should result in a lower offensive output.

Goran Dragic is doubtful to play here, while Bam Adebayo will be definitely limited if he even suits up.

The Lakers talked about how they need to come out much faster in game 4, which I’m expecting to manifest into a first-half lead.

Given that we’re getting $1.33 for an outright win, $1.75 for the half-time/full-time double looks like overs.