Thursday, January 28

Thursday, January 28

Atlanta Hawks vs Brooklyn Nets, 11:40 am
Hawks +7

After rocking with them yesterday, I’ll take the Hawks here today. I continue to think this Brooklyn side is overrated in the market and +7 for Atlanta looks like solid value.

They admittedly are playing a b2b here, but don’t seem to have too many injury concerns. This Brooklyn side has played a pretty soft schedule since the Harden acquisition, but they still haven’t looked all that good.

Not to mention the fact that they’ve been a poor road side this season, going just 2-4 both straight up and ATS. 7 points is a lot for a home underdog and Atlanta has what it takes to keep up offensively. Stick with the +7 and throw a little on the moneyline.

Multi: Suns/Warriors $1.68

Not the biggest payout in the world but $1.68 is a reasonable return for this multi. Phoenix are $1.35 favourites over OKC, while Golden State are $1.25 against Minnesota.

While it is tough to beat teams twice in a row, I don’t have too many concerns for Golden State against Minnesota. Curry and Wiggins should be able to roast their poor perimeter defense and I can’t see Minnesota scoring enough to make up for that.

Phoenix also look like solid value at $1.35, although Devin Booker is likely to miss this one. Given how bad OKC has looked of late, I’d still back Chris Paul and company to do enough to eke this one out.

Wednesday, January 27

Atlanta Hawks vs LA Clippers, 11:30 am
Hawks -2.5

Both sides have a few injury concerns here, but the tentative opening line is Atlanta -2.5. With Kawhi, PG, and Pat Beverley all listed as out, I’ll take my chances with the Hawks as small home favourites.

Kawhi and PG are the two best players on the Clippers by a country mile and their absence will make a huge impact. Pat Beverley being out is also far from ideal against the offensive-minded guards of Atlanta like Trae Young.

The Hawks haven’t been great this season, but they’re still competent and have gone 8-8 straight up and ATS. Young, Gallinari, Capela, and Reddish are all listed as questionable here, but that generally means they’re likely to play in the modern NBA. Overall, I think their offense does enough here to get the win and cover.

Tuesday, January 26

Multi: Lakers/Warriors $1.58

I intend to sack off the 3-leg multis for the foreseeable future, but this 2-legger looks like it has some value. The 2 current components are the Lakers as $1.20 road faves in Cleveland and Golden State at $1.32 at home against Minnesota.

While this would be a perfect letdown spot for the Lakers, LeBron going back to Cleveland just won’t let that happen. The Lakers are a perfect 9-0 on the road this season and their huge edge at the forward positions should lead to a comfortable win here.

Golden State also look like reasonable value, paying $1.32 against a dreadful Wolves side that will be without KAT. I think the Warriors coaching staff wants to embarrass D’Lo here and Wiggins wants some revenge against his former side.

New Orleans Pelicans vs San Antonio Spurs, 1:10 pm
Spurs +3.5

I like the Spurs in this one, currently listed as 3.5-point underdogs against New Orleans. Things haven’t worked out for the Pelicans this season, who’ve won just 1 of their last 9 games.

The Spurs have been one of the better road sides in the NBA, going 6-3 both straight up and ATS so far. This is the first game back home for New Orleans after a 6-game road trip, so I’d expect fatigue to be a factor here.

Given New Orleans’ poor defensive showings of late, the Spurs offensive lineup has a chance to thrive. This is a close one that could go either way, so I’ll take the 3.5 points of value.

Monday, January 25

Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks, 12:10 pm
Bucks -8.5

Fresh off a pair of close losses to two of the NBA’s best teams, now seems like a good time to back Milwaukee. They enter this clash fully healthy and have a full two days of rest before their next game.

Atlanta have won 3 consecutive games and looked good in the process, but these came against the lowly Pistons and Timberwolves. Milwaukee is a completely different beast and I think they’ll struggle to hang with them here.

Young and Hunter are both questionable here, while Dunn and Bogdanovic remain out injured. Rondo and Gallinari are also only recently returning from injury, meaning Atlanta’s rotation is in a state of flux. The Bucks should come out motivated here and if they can hit their 3’s, I’m expecting a double digit win.

Sunday, January 24

Multi: 76ers/Pelicans/Jazz
Combined Odds of $2.09

Opting for a bit of a different play here, combining 3 favourites for a $2.09 multi. Utah are the big earners at $1.33, with NOLA at $1.28 and Philly at $1.23.

All three sides have relatively straightforward paths to victory here and are favoured by an average of 7.5 points. Importantly, none of these teams has any major injuries or expected absences here.

Detroit have been one of the weakest sides in the NBA this season and I’d expect them to really struggle to contain Philly on the inside. Minnesota is the only side that has probably been worse than Detroit and they’re on a B2B without their best player – really favourable spot for the Pels.

Throw in Utah as a very competent home side against a Warriors team playing 3 in 4 days and this is a nice 3-team parlay.

Chicago Bulls vs LA Lakers, 1 pm
Lakers -8.5

I like the Lakers in this spot, currently listed as 8.5-point favourites against the Bulls. LA are an impressive 8-0 on the road this season and project to have all key players available here.

Chicago have been just under .500 this season, but they’ve played an easy schedule and are on the 2nd night of a B2B here. I think they’ll really struggle to guard LA on the interior, which will likely prove crucial in this one. Assuming the Lakers play up to their potential here, this is one they should win and cover relatively comfortably.

Saturday, January 23

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Atlanta Hawks, 12:10 pm
Hawks -4.5

The Wolves have been absolutely atrocious this season and I think Atlanta is good value as a relatively small 4.5-point favourite. Minnesota just haven’t been competitive without KAT this season and the absences of Rubio and Hernangomez make things even more difficult.

Atlanta do have a few injuries of their own, but I think they’ve got the top-end talent to make up for it. Trae Young in particular should have a very good game here, going up against a porous Minnesota perimeter defense.

I also like the matchup for Atlanta’s bigs in Capela and Collins, who should dominate the Wolves backup frontcourt. If the Hawks play to their potential, this is a game I would expect them to win and cover relatively comfortably.

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets, 2:10 pm
Suns -1.5

This is a high-profile ESPN game, one where I think Phoenix has the slight edge at home. They’ve been impressive in their limited home games this season, going 3-1 both straight up and ATS. They also enter this one fully healthy, with all of their key players expected to suit up.

It may just be a conference finals hangover, but the Nuggets haven’t been the same side this season. They’re only 7-7 straight up and a fairly poor 5-9 ATS. Michael Porter’s absence has loomed large and he’s officially listed as questionable here.

Overall, I would expect the elite guard play from Phoenix to ultimately prove the difference in this one. If they can continue shooting well from 3, they should have too much not to come away with the win and cover.

Friday, January 22

Milwaukee Bucks vs LA Lakers, 11:10 am
Lakers +1.5

I’m taking the Lakers here, currently getting 1.5 points away at Milwaukee. Both LeBron and AD are again on the injury report, but I’m expecting them to play here. The Bucks just haven’t had it against good teams this season and I don’t trust them with a talent deficit here.

LA should be highly motivated here, playing in front of a national audience and looking to rebound after their loss to Golden State last time out. They’ve been arguably the best road side in the NBA thus far, going an impressive 7-0 straight up and 5-2 ATS.

They match up relatively well with this Milwaukee side, which just doesn’t have the strength in depth that they did last season. LeBron and AD should be able to dominate on the interior here. If the Lakers can hit their shots from 3, I expect them to secure the outright upset win.

Thursday, January 21

Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics, 11:05 am
76ers -5

I’m going to take the Sixers in this one, currently listed as 5-point home favourites over the Celtics. Boston have started the season relatively well, but I believe their injuries and Covid related absences will prove too much here.

Philly is still one of the premier home sides in the NBA, compiling a 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS record thus far. They’ve got most of their rotation players available here, with Seth Curry being the sole notable absence.

Boston have been hit hard by the Covid bug and will be without key pieces in Tatum and Robert Williams here. Kemba Walker also just returned from injury last time out and will be on a minutes limit. I’m expecting a big performance from Embiid here, one which is hopefully enough for Philly to win and cover.

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat, 11:35 am
Raptors -3.5

I like the look of the Raptors here, currently laying 3.5 points as home favourites against Miami. Toronto have really picked things up of late, winning each of their last 3 games on this extended home stand.

They’ve gotten a great chance to rest up and enter this clash with all of their key rotation players available. Miami’s injury report looks like a mess right now, with Jimmy Butler confirmed out due to Covid protocols. Meyers Leonard has also been ruled out, with both Dragic and Hero as questionable.

These are all key injuries for a Heat team that has gone just 1-4 straight up and ATS on the road this season. I think these two teams are trending in opposite directions and Toronto manages to get the job done at this relatively small number.

Wednesday, January 20

Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans, 1:05 pm
Jazz 1-10 $2.70

I’m opting for a bit of a different play here, taking Utah to win by 1-10 at $2.70. Considering the 5.5-point line and the $1.44 moneyline price, I think this margin bet is very solid value.

The Jazz have had their expected solid start to the season, while New Orleans have largely struggled so far. Utah is a difficult place to play at the best of times, especially when fatigued after a long road trip. Lonzo Ball is also expected to be out here, which is another major loss for New Orleans.

Overall, this has the makings of a relatively competitive game that the Jazz do just enough to win. The Pelicans haven’t been great this season, but they’re well-coached and tend to rarely get blown out.

Tuesday, January 19

Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs, 7:05 am
Blazers +1.5

I’m going to take Portland here, currently getting 1.5 points against the Spurs. The Blazers are dealing with a few key injuries here, but I believe the market has over-accounted for them with this line.

Damian Lillard has excelled without CJ McCollum in the past and I see no reason why he can’t continue that against a pedestrian Spurs defense. He was excellent against Atlanta last time out and should thrive as the lone playmaker here.

While the Spurs have had a strong road record this season, I believe now is the time to start fading them. The fact that I’m getting points with Portland at home here means the value is too good to pass up.

Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks, 11:35 am
Bucks -2.5

This matchup comes at a great time for Milwaukee and I’d back them to cover the 2.5-point line on the road here. The expectation is that Kyrie Irving will be out due to Covid protocols and I only recommend this bet if he’s absent.

This leaves Brooklyn relatively thin in the backcourt, relying heavily on fringe rotation players like TLC and Bruce Brown. Brooklyn are also very weak on the interior, which doesn’t bode well against Giannis’ driving style.

The Bucks have been under the radar this season, but they’ve quietly won 6 of their last 7 games and are looking very good. I expect them to put up a lot of points here against a weak Brooklyn defense, doing enough defensively to secure a win and cover.