Sunday, February 7

Sunday, February 7

Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets, 12 pm
76ers Win $1.78

The 76ers opened as narrow 1.5-point favourites here, but they’ve already been bet out to -2.5 and I’d expect this to go further. This is a great situational spot for them and is also an excellent matchup.

Kevin Durant won’t travel with the team for this one, meaning Brooklyn are really outmatched in the frontcourt. Embiid and Simmons are both listed on the injury report, but I’d expect both to play and dominate in this one.

Brooklyn are a poor 4-5 straight up and 3-6 ATS on the road this season and are on the 2nd night of a b2b here. Philly remain one of the best home sides in the NBA and I’d expect them to win comfortably here, making the current $1.78 price point very enticing.

Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto Raptors, 12 pm
Hawks +6

I’m backing Atlanta here again +6 points, on the proviso that Trae Young is available. He was a late scratch for their game against Utah last time out, which ultimately cost them the cover.

While the Raptors are on a 3-game win streak, 2 of those came against Orlando and the third came against a Nets side with a quarantined KD. They are a porous 3-7 on the road this season and find themselves on the 2nd night of a b2b, with no OG Anunoby.

They’ve not been as good defensively this season and the improving Hawks offense can make them pay. Getting a generous 6 points at home, Atlanta should at least be able to keep this one close. If Young isn’t in the lineup before tip-off, this is a pass for me.

Saturday, February 6

Charlotte Hornets vs Utah Jazz, 12 pm
Hornets +8

I’m going to once again take Charlotte here, this time as an 8-point home underdog to Utah. The Jazz are on the 2nd night of a b2b here and this isn’t the sort of game teams typically get up for.

Utah are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their last 10, which suggests that you’re paying a premium to back them here. While the Hornets haven’t been great straight up, they’re a frisky team that tends to keep games close. They also get a boost here in the form of Terry Rozier, who missed their game with Philly last time out.

Ultimately, I think there’s some line value on Charlotte and the chance to fade a public team like Utah. This is a game I could see going to free throws late on, so I’ll happily take the healthy 8 points on offer for the home underdog.

Friday, February 5

Atlanta Hawks vs Utah Jazz, 11:30 am
Hawks +7.5

I like the look of Atlanta in this one, currently getting 7.5 points at home against Utah. The Jazz have been impressive this season, but they’re not as good on the road and this number somewhat overrates them. As a point of reference, Atlanta were smaller underdogs against the Lakers a few days ago.

This is the first game of an East-Coast road trip for Utah, where teams from the West tend to struggle. It is also the front end of a b2b, which could have consequences late on depending on how this starts.

Atlanta does have a few injuries here, but I think they’ve got enough depth to overcome that here. I’m not expecting an outright win, but they should have enough to keep this close, especially through the key number of 7.5.

LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets, 2 pm
Nuggets +5.5

I’m looking to take Denver +5.5 here, largely due to the excellent scheduling spot in their favor. The Lakers are returning back from a mammoth 7-game East Coast road trip, a situation where West Coast teams tend to struggle.

Denver have been off since Monday due to their postponement against Detroit, providing some valuable time to rest. The injuries to Dozier and Harris are somewhat concerning, but I’m backing the roster depth to keep them competitive here. The Nuggets also have the motivation advantage here, looking for some form of revenge after their Western Conference Finals loss.

LeBron and AD are both on the injury report again for the Lakers and there’s probably an outside chance one of them sits given the pile-up of games. Denver are the more rested and motivated team here and should be able to keep this within 5 points, if not win outright.

Thursday, February 4

Charlotte Hornets vs Philadelphia 76ers, 11 am
Hornets +7.5

I’m taking the Hornets plus the points here, currently getting 7.5 points at home against Philly. Philly have been a bang average road side over the last few seasons and I think this number really overrates them.

Less than a weak ago, Philly opened as 7.5-point favourites against a Wolves team without Karl Anthony Towns. This Charlotte side has hovered around .500 for the season and is much more competent than Minnesota. PJ Washington is somewhat of a miss, but the rest of their rotation is expected to play.

This definitely has the potential to be a letdown game for Philly, the final game of their 4-game road trip before they play again tomorrow. I’d expect Charlotte to keep this one close throughout, with an outside chance of stealing a win at the end.

San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 12:30 pm
Spurs -7.5

I’m going to take San Antonio here, with the general consensus line being 7.5 points right now. The Wolves are a disastrous 1-8 straight up and 3-6 ATS on the road this season and they enter this clash with several key absences. Kat, Culver, and Juancho have all been ruled out for the Wolves, with Russell and Reid both listed as day-to-day.

The Spurs have been quietly solid this season, with above .500 records both straight up and ATS. They’ve made a habit of beating poor teams for the past two decades and Minnesota fit that bill.

The Spurs are healthy, rested, and should be motivated to win big after a pair of losses to Memphis. At the very least, San Antonio look like a good ‘filler’ for a multi at $1.32.

Tuesday, February 3

Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors, 11 am
Raptors -5

I’m going to take Toronto here, currently laying 5 points against the Magic. While it is usually tough to beat teams back-to-back in the NBA, the spot is very favourable for Toronto here.

The Magic are dealing with a myriad of injuries right now, where they’re especially thin at PG and both Forward spots. The top 3 Forwards in their rotation are all out here, as are their top 2 point guards. Home court isn’t really a factor either, considering Toronto have been playing in Florida this season.

Toronto have been pretty miserable this season both straight up and ATS, which is why they’re probably undervalued here. Lowry and VanVleet should work Orlando’s guard backups and Pascal Siakam is also set up for a big game. 5 points is a decent number in the modern NBA, but Toronto should really win and cover quite comfortably.

Tuesday, February 2

Atlanta Hawks vs LA Lakers, 11:40 am
Hawks +6.5

I’m going to take Atlanta at home here, currently getting 6.5 points against the Lakers. Teams tend to get fatigued towards the end of a long road trip and the Lakers are at the end of a gruelling 7-game trip here.

Their performance has noticeably dipped of late, losing two of their last 3, with their sole win coming by a single point. LeBron and AD are also both on the injury report, with an outside chance that at least one of them sits here.

Atlanta aren’t anything special, but they’re a competent side that has gone 5-4 straight up and ATS at home this season. They do have a few rotation players out here, but I think their depth can make up for these absences. This will be a big game for them and I they’ve got a shot at the upset, but they should at least keep it close

San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies, 12:40 pm
Spurs -3

It’s tough to beat teams multiple times in a row and that’s why I’m taking San Antonio here. I think it’s a great revenge spot for them after getting blown out by Memphis at home a couple of days ago.

The Spurs have been a solid team overall, going 11-9 straight up and 12-8 ATS this season. Memphis have been cashing tickets like crazy for spread bettors so far and I think they’re becoming a little overrated in the market.

The Grizzlies also have a plethora of injuries here, with at least 7 players listed as out for this one. This includes Valanciunas, Jackson, Winslow, and Allen, who were all expected to play significant roles. With a completely clean injury report and the motivation edge, I expect San Antonio to win and cover this relatively small 3-point line.

Monday, February 1

Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers, 11 am
Pacers +2.5

I’m leaning towards the Pacers here, currently getting 2.5 points at home against Philly. Philly’s road struggles have continued this season, where they’re just 4-5 straight up and 3-6 ATS.

The Pacers have been on a bit of a downward trend of late, which also means they’re starting to become undervalued in the market. Philly have largely benefited from a weak schedule this season and haven’t really pulled off any impressive road wins so far.

Indiana also matches up relatively well with this Philly side, especially on the interior with Turner and Sabonis. This could be exacerbated here, with Embiid listed as questionable with a back injury. I think Indiana has a real chance to win outright here, but the 2.5 points is good insurance.

Sunday, January 31

Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks, 12 pm
Hornets +7.5

I had success backing Charlotte yesterday and I plan to do the same here. The majority of early money has come in on Milwaukee, but I think 7.5 points is just too many for the home underdog.

This is an atrocious scheduling spot for Milwaukee, who is playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. Charlotte are also on a b2b, but they haven’t had to travel anywhere overnight.

The Bucks also just haven’t been as good on the road this season, going a pedestrian 4-4 straight up and 3-5 ATS. Their Rotation isn’t as strong as past seasons and I think Charlotte match up well with their guard-heavy lineup. Milwaukee probably gets the straight up win here, but I’d expect the Hornets to keep it within 7 or less.

Boston Celtics vs LA Lakers, 12:30 pm
Lakers -1.5

While the Lakers are coming to the end of a long road trip, I still like them to rebound here after suffering consecutive losses. They match up really well with this Boston side and I don’t think 1.5 points is enough here.

The Anthony Davis quad injury is a minor concern, but I’m expecting him to play here. Keep an eye out for the lineups just before tip-off as I don’t recommend this play if he’s out. Given Boston’s lack of reliable bigs, I think AD is probably the key to the Lakers getting this win.

Prior to this recent 2-game slump, they were a perfect 10-0 on the road and a solid 7-3 ATS. Boston have largely struggled when facing the top sides this season and I think the Lakers star power will be too much here.

Saturday, January 30

Charlotte Hornets vs Indiana Pacers, 11 am
Hornets +3.5

Contrarian plays have been doing relatively well of late and pretty much everyone is on Indiana here. I think this is a very good revenge spot for the Hornets and like them at the current line of +3.5.

Indiana are a really good 5-2 straight up and ATS on the road this season, which has led to them becoming somewhat overvalued in the market. Charlotte are rested after a long home stand and enter this clash completely healthy.

It’s tough to beat a side twice in a row in the NBA and the Hornets should be motivated after losing to this same Pacers side last time out. I’d expect this to be a close one late on, with the Hornets doing just enough to cover and potentially win outright.

San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets, 12:30 pm
Spurs +4

They aren’t getting much public love, but the Spurs have been quietly plugging away this season. This is a very favourable schedule spot for them and I think +4 points is too generous against this Denver side.

The Nuggets are at the end of an extended road trip, with this being the last of their 5-game trip. Teams at the end of a long road trip don’t tend to play as well, especially struggling with jump shooting. Conversely, the Spurs have been on a long home stand and enter this clash essentially fully healthy.

They’ve also looked quite good of late, pulling off the upset win and cover against Boston last time out. Especially without Denver’s home court advantage, I like San Antonio to at least cover the +4 here.

Friday, January 29

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers, 11:40 am
Blazers +4

I’m going to take Portland here, currently getting 4 points away at Houston. The Blazers do have several injury concerns heading into this one, which has made them undervalued.

Conversely, due to Houston’s good run of recent form, I think they’re a little overrated in the market. They’re hardly getting anything from their forwards and bigs, which means this one likely turns into a battle of the guards.

Even with Wall and Oladipo looking relatively good in their injury returns, Dame Lillard is definitely the best player on the floor here. I’d expect him to go off on a porous Rockets perimeter defense and at least keep this competitive. This should be close down the stretch, at which point the +4 becomes very valuable.