Aus Open – Day 10

Aus Open – Day 10

Ash Barty vs Karolina Muchova, 11 am
Barty 2-0 $1.57

The WTA usually has a funny way of making you pay, but I thought I’d support the local hope here. Barty has looked very good so far, yet to drop a set through 4 matches and only being taken to 1 tie break.

Muchova has also had an impressive tournament so far, but the lack of a track record means this should be hard to keep up. She has been very opportunistic with break points so far, which Barty rarely gives away.

Her own serve has been pretty vulnerable at times and I can see her wilting under the pressure in her first grand slam quarter. Barty is the clear favourite to get to the final on this side of the draw and I’m expecting a straight sets win here.

Multi: Nadal/Medvedev
Odds of $2.01

I’m taking another plus money multi here, this time comprising of the two ATP favourites in tomorrow’s games. We’ve got Nadal over Tsitsipas at $1.44 and Medvedev over Rublev at $1.40.

Making it this far is impressive in and of itself, but Tsitsipas has had a very easy run to this point. He made light work of Simon and Ymer, but really struggled against Kokkinakis and got a walkover against Berrettini. Nadal looks to be in excellent form right now and I’d expect him to just grind down Tsitsipas here.

The Medvedev vs Rublev match is also interesting, one where I view Medvedev as a better version of the same archetype. Both are powerful hitters, but Medvedev has the better serve and should also dominate at the net. $1.40 is probably about right, but combining him with Rafa at $2+ is tough to ignore.

Tuesday, February 16

Multi: Pacers/Warriors
Odds of $1.79

The state of most injury reports means that there isn’t all that much to choose from today. I’m opting for two decent home sides to simply win straight up against two of the worst sides in the NBA.

The injury reports are getting increasingly unreliable, but the Bulls look to be without their starting frontcourt here. Each of Markkanen, Carter, and Porter is expected to be out, which doesn’t bode well against Indiana’s dominant frontcourt. Indiana has been a surprisingly poor home team this season, but they’ve really got no excuses here.

I’m also adding in Golden State, playing host to a Cavs side at the end of their 5-game West Coast road trip. They’ve been uncompetitive throughout the trip and are on a b2b here.

Steph Curry has been the form player in the NBA of late and he should be able to dominate Garland and Sexton here. One concern is the potential absence of Draymond Green, who Golden State has been terrible without this season.

As long as he’s good to go, they shouldn’t have much trouble rebounding from a poor loss to Brooklyn. Combine their $1.28 price point with the $1.40 of Indiana and you’re getting a reasonable $1.79 payout for a 2-legger.

Monday, February 15

Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers, 11:40 am
Mavs -4

I’m going to take the Mavericks here, laying 4 points at home to the Trail Blazers. Portland are actually a very impressive 7-3 ATS in their last 10, but I’m not sure they can keep this up with Nurkic and McCollum out.

Dallas have underachieved by almost every metric this season, currently sitting 13-14 straight up and having gone 2-8 ATS in their last 10. They appear to have found some form on this extended home stand and look to have a favourable matchup here.

Josh Richardson is one of the better guard defenders in the league and I’d expect him to do a better-than-average job on Lillard in this one. None of the Portland bigs can guard Porzingis, while Luka can get his against anybody.

Given where they sit in the current playoff picture, Dallas should also be the more motivated of these two sides. I think they add to this 4-game home winning streak, doing just enough to cover the 4-point line.

Sunday, February 14

Phoenix Suns vs Philadelphia 76ers, 7:10 am
76ers $1.90

I’m going to fade the sharps here, taking Philly to win outright at even money. They haven’t been good on the road this season, but I think the matchup and scheduling spot are good here.

The Suns have managed wins in 7 of their last 8 games, but that’s why you’re paying a premium for them here. If they continue with the Kaminsky/Ayton frontcourt, I don’t see how Embiid doesn’t absolutely go off here.

I think the early start time is also relatively favourable for Philly, given Phoenix have become accustomed to starting 6 hours later. Injuries to Saric, Payne, and Nader also really thin out their bench, which could prove problematic here. If Philly can hit 3’s at a decent clip, I think they win this outright.

Saturday, February 13

Sacramento Kings vs Orlando Magic, 2 pm
Kings -6.5

I’m taking the Kings here, laying 6.5 points at home against a decimated Orlando side. The Magic were down 4 of their projected starters in last night’s loss to Golden State and have also lost their top 4 point guard options.

I’m not expecting any of these guys to play on the 2nd night of a b2b, so offense should be hard to come by here. They’ve just come off an emotional loss to the Warriors, so fatigue could also be an issue against the fast-paced Kings.

The Kings did lose to Philly last time out, but have gone 7-3 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their last 10. It’ll be tough for Orlando to put out competent two-way lineups here, so Sacramento should win this relatively comfortably.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 2 pm
Cavs +5

No-one really wants to back the Cavs right now, which is why I’ll look to take them +5 on the road at Portland. The Blazers are still dealing with key injuries to Nurkic and McCollum and had an emotional win over Philly yesterday.

This is the perfect letdown spot against a lacklustre Cleveland side that finally seems to be getting healthy. The Cavs should be able to control the glass here, which is why I think they can keep it competitive.

The majority of bettors are taking Portland here, yet the line hasn’t moved much at all, which suggests a lot of the sharps are on Cleveland. If Cleveland plays up to their potential here, while Portland coasts, they’ve got a decent shot at the upset.

Friday, February 12

Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic, 2:10 pm
Warriors -5

This is definitely one of the more barren days in terms of NBA action, so I’m opting for the sole play of Warriors -5 here. Both sides are decimated by injuries, but it appears to be affecting Orlando on a greater scale.

Their top two point guards have already been out with the 3rd stringer listed as questionable, which doesn’t bode well against an in-form Steph Curry. Their starting forwards in Gordon and Isaac are both also out, with Fournier and Aminu also listed as questionable.

For Orlando to have a shot here, Nik Vucevic really needs to go off against the Warriors backup bigs. Vucevic should get his, but Curry also appears primed for another big performance against the decimated Orlando backcourt. I could see this line moving either way before tip-off, but I’ll happily back the superstar upside of Steph minus the 5 points.

Wednesday, February 11

Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors, 11:10 am
Wizards +5.5

The Wizards injury report has been relatively empty of late, so I’m predicting that they’ll be at least close to full strength here. Toronto continues to get a lot of love on the market, despite their relatively poor 11-13 straight up and 10-14 ATS records.

It’s no secret that the Wizards have been atrocious this season – that’s why we’re getting 5.5 points with them at home here. I think we’re somewhere close to their nadir for this season, meaning they could be a good value bet soon.

This is also a poor scheduling spot for Toronto – their 5th game of a 6-game road trip before a huge game with Boston tomorrow. I think they potentially underestimate the Wizards here and we get a close one that could go either way.

Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers, 12:10 pm
Pacers +2.5

Take out KD and this Nets side is bang average. They’ve got absolutely nothing on the interior and should get bullied by the Turner/Sabonis duo. This is also a poor scheduling spot for them, playing a b2b without their best player.

I think we’ve seen Indiana become a bit undervalued in the market, fuelled in part by their very poor recent run. This is still a competitive and cohesive team that lacks a real weakness and matches up very well with this Nets side.

Indiana has been above .500 on the road both straight up and ATS this season and I expect them to take this straight up, so the 2.5 points on offer looks like great value. While they could be vulnerable to a Kyrie/Harden offensive explosion, I think they dominate on the glass and in the paint, ultimately securing a road win.

Wednesday, February 10

Sacramento Kings vs Philadelphia 76ers, 2 pm
Kings +5

The bulk of the action is coming in on Philly -5 here, but I intend to back the Kings plus the points again. Sacramento has been in great form of late, winning 6 of their last 7 and establishing themselves as a contender in the West playoff race.

Despite their strong record on the season, Philly’s road woes have largely continued. They are 6-5 straight up and just 4-6-1 ATS on the road, both significantly below their home averages. This doubles as a very tough situational spot, with Philly having to travel 3 time zones to kick off their road trip.

Ultimately, this is the classic spot of grabbing the contrarian home underdog through a key number. I’m not necessarily expecting an outright win for the Kings, but I think they match up relatively well with Philly and should keep this one close.

Tuesday, February 9

Phoenix Suns vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 1:10 pm
Suns -7

I like the look of Phoenix here, currently laying 7 points at home to the Cavs. Despite a solid start to the season, the Cavs have really faded of late and look to have found their true level.

Phoenix had been dealing with some injuries of late, but Devin Booker has returned and I’d expect at least one of Nader or Crowder to be back here. They’ve been a decent home side on the season, going 6-4 both straight up and ATS.

In contrast, Cleveland have been a terrible road side this season, going just 3-7 straight up and ATS. This is also the first game of their West Coast swing, having to travel multiple time zones for this one. Phoenix are on a b2b here, which isn’t ideal, but I’d expect their talent to see them to a double-digit win.

Multi: Lakers/Mavs/Suns $1.74

Nothing too expansive here, but I like this multi with the three biggest favourites of the day. The Mavs are facing the Wolves here, who have been atrocious all season and are set to be without four starters here.

The Lakers are there primarily to give us some extra value, as they’re a measly $1.10 in straight up betting. Anthony Davis is doubtful here, but I still like this bet if LeBron James suits up. Otherwise, just stick to the other two.

Monday, February 8

LA Clippers vs Sacramento Kings, 7:10 am
Kings +8

I’m going to take the Kings here, currently at +8 but rapidly falling. Sacramento have been in excellent form of late, winning 6 of their last 7, with their only loss coming by a single point.

The Clippers have multiple key injuries here, with both Paul George and Pat Beverley confirmed out. While the Kings are on the 2nd night of a b2b, the current injury report suggests all key players are available.

The Clippers are a side that tends to underestimate their opponents and they can get in trouble as a result. They’ve handily beaten the Kings multiple times this season and probably won’t give 100% here.

But this is a motivated and rapidly improving Kings side against a Clippers side without two of their most important players. I like the +8 line for Sacramento and would also throw a bit on the moneyline.