Sunday, January 26

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 am
Jazz -3

Utah are currently laying 3 points and I’m expecting them to both win and cover here. I think they’re the better of these two sides and also possess one of the best home court advantages in the NBA.

They’ve been in red hot form of late, winning 9 of their last 10 and covering in 8 of those games. They’re an exceptional 17-3 at home, no doubt buoyed by their altitude advantage.

With Dwight Powell done for the year, they also match up very well against the Dallas interior. I expect them to contain Porzingis here, putting much more pressure on Luka to generate offence.

The Mavs have tailed off slightly of late, only covering 4 times in their last 10 games overall. Utah have several solid wing defenders, all of which will work together to make life difficult on Luka.

Given their home record this season, I also think Utah’s home court is worth more than the traditional 3 points. Factor in that they’re healthy and the more talented side and this is a definite value play.

Saturday, January 25

Milwaukee Bucks vs Charlotte Hornets (Neutral), 7 am
Hornets +13.5

The Hornets are getting 13.5 points and I think there’s decent value on them here. This game is played on a neutral court in Paris, which tends to be a great equalizer in these matchups.

While the Bucks have been on a good run straight up, they’ve only covered in 4 of their last 10 games. Their rotation will be slightly weaker for this one, with Robin Lopez and Frank Mason ruled out and Wes Matthews questionable.

Charlotte enter this clash fully healthy, with no injuries to report. I can’t see fatigue being an issue here either as this game is sandwiched between 6 rest days.

They got destroyed by Milwaukee by over 40 points in their last matchup, so I sense a bit of a revenge factor here. They also suffered a dreadful 20+ point defeat to Orlando last time out, so I’d expect a faster start.

The reverse line movement has also gone in Charlotte’s favour, with the line moving from 14 to 13.5 points despite almost all the money coming in on Milwaukee. I don’t expect an upset here, but they should be able to keep this within 14 points.

Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies, 11 am
Grizzlies +2

Memphis are one of the hotter teams in the NBA right now and I’m a bit surprised they’re catching 2 points here. They’ve gone 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games, covering in 6 of these.

Detroit have been a pretty pedestrian home side this season, going just 9-13 thus far. They’re also dealing with a myriad of injuries, most notably to Blake Griffin, and should be far from full health here.

Memphis, in contrast, enter this clash almost injury free. Ja Morant has had a spectacular rookie season, while Jaren Jackson has also really picked it up of late.

They suffered a 24-point beatdown against Boston last time out and I’d expect them to start fast here as a result. They’re the better team here with a great shot at securing an outright upset.

Friday, January 24

Brooklyn Nets vs LA Lakers, 12 pm
Lakers -5

The Lakers are one of the best road sides in the NBA, currently compiling an 18-4 record. Brooklyn have been just .500 at home this season and are 2-8 in their last 10 overall.

They lack quality and depth on the wing and I think they’ll really struggle to match up with LeBron. Their Center play has also been pretty poor thus far, making it difficult to contain a strong LA interior.

They enter this clash fully healthy, while the Nets are dealing with a few niggling injuries. The travel situation is far from ideal, but I think their deep roster is enough to compensate for this.

Especially with Kyrie’s status for this one in question, I’m not sure how Brooklyn generates reliable offence here. I’ll take the Lakers laying 5 points.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks, 2:30 pm
Mavs -1

Another injury driven play, I like Dallas laying one point here. McCollum and Whiteside are both questionable here, likely to be limited if they do play.

Portland have only been .500 straight up at home this season, going an even worse 6-12-2 ATS. Their defence on the wing has been terrible all season, which doesn’t bode well going against Luka Doncic.

After Dwight Powell suffered a serious injury last time out, I see Dallas coming out very motivated here. This may lead to more small ball and Porzingis at the 5, which could be a benefit in disguise.

This is only the first game of a road trip for Dallas, so I don’t see fatigue being too much of an issue here. The revenge spot is in Portland’s favour, but they have too many injury concerns to back at this point.

Thursday, January 23

Boston Celtics vs Memphis Grizzlies, 11:30 am
Grizzlies +7

The surging Grizzlies find themselves getting 7 points here and I think they’re good value for the cover. I’m definitely taking a contrarian angle here, with over 70% of the early money coming in on Boston.

Even with all this money on Boston, the line has moved in Memphis’ favour from the 7.5-point opener. This suggests that the sharps who typically bet bigger amounts are on the Grizz, while the general public is on Boston.

Boston are battling a few key injuries here, with the status of both Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown in question for this one. Memphis enter this one essentially fully healthy, fresh off of 8 wins in their last 10.

The Grizzlies tend to excel on the interior, which is the only real weakness of this Boston side. I think both Valanciunas and Jackson can control the paint, helping keep this one competitive.

Especially through a key number like 7, I’ll look to take the Grizz here.

Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets, 12 pm
Rockets -7.5

This is another case where I’m taking the contrarian angle, backing a Houston side laying 7.5 points here. The Rockets only have received 26% of the action thus far, but the line has already moved in their favour.

This again tells me that the sharps are all over this line, seeing value against a decimated Nuggets side. Denver are likely without 4 key rotation players here, with Murray, Harris, Millsap, and Plumlee all expected to miss.

While they’re a relatively deep side, this thins out their rotation and will make it much more difficult to contain Houston. They’ve struggled against elite offensive wings for years now and the Harris injury means it’ll be very tough to defend Harden.

This is also their 3rd game in 4 nights, making it extra difficult to cope with this plethora of injuries. Houston haven’t been great at home this season, but this is an ideal bounce-back spot after a disappointing loss to OKC.

Wednesday, January 22

Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers, 12:30 pm
Clippers +1.5

The Clippers open as 1.5-point underdogs here and I like them to cover in today’s lone game. I especially like their matchups defensively, particularly if Kawhi guards Luka Doncic.

Dallas don’t really have a 2nd player who can initiate the offence and could easily sputter if Luka doesn’t get going. I’d like this even better if Paul George was playing, but the return of Harkless should provide a solid boost. The Mavericks aren’t fully healthy either, with Porzingis considered questionable here with a knee injury.

Another area where the Clippers can really get after this team is in the defensive backcourt. Beverley and Shamet are two very good perimeter defenders that should limit Dallas’ offensive output.

While they’ve been good offensively this season, Dallas aren’t a great defensive team. They’re particularly vulnerable on the interior and aren’t great at shutting down the 3 either.

This should be a relatively even and fun game, but I think the Kawhi matchup against Doncic will decide this in LA’s favour. I like the 1.5 currently on offer and I’d advise getting on the moneyline if you can get plus money.

Tuesday, January 21

Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons, 6 am
Wizards -1

The Wizards are currently laying 1 point here and I fancy them to cover against a relatively unmotivated Detroit side. The Pistons have fallen off a cliff since the Blake Griffin injury and will also be without Reggie Jackson here.

They’re a relatively poor road side to begin with, going just 8-14 on the season. Washington are rounding back into health with Beal and Bertans back and should be frisky in games like this.

Brad Beal is the clear best player on the floor in this matchup and I’m not sure Detroit have what it takes to guard him. Bench players typically play better at home and the Wizards appear to already have the edge in that department.

An early tip-off rarely favours the road side and I expect this to be the case here. Andre Drummond is likely to be traded soon and Detroit don’t seem to be playing all that hard. I’ll take a frisky Washington side laying a single point.

Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic, 9 am
Hornets +4.5

The 15-29 Hornets host the 20-23 Magic here, currently getting 4.5 points. I think Orlando continue to be overvalued on the road and will gladly take Charlotte plus the points.

Orlando are in a truly horrendous spot here. Not only have they just completed a brutal 5-game West Coast road trip, they now have a cross country flight on just a day of rest.

The Hornets enter this one on a significant rest advantage, having not played since last Thursday. The early 9 am start time should also really benefit Charlotte against a team coming off a time zone change.

Orlando are also dealing with several key injuries, with Isaac, Augustin, and Aminu all missing here. Charlotte, on the other hand, enter this clash almost completely healthy.

The Magic are far from a good road team already, going just 7-15 thus far. Factor in the rest and scheduling disadvantage and I really like the Hornets getting 4.5 points.

Monday, January 20

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat, 7 am
Spurs $1.95

I’ll take the contrarian angle here and back San Antonio to win outright as slight $1.95 underdogs. Two thirds of early money has come in on Miami, yet the line has moved in San Antonio’s favour.

This tells me that the sharp bettors who are really betting big money are on the Spurs in this one. Factor in that this is also the day of the NFL Conference Championships, meaning less recreational bettors on the NBA.

Despite a stellar record on the season, Miami are far from an impressive road side. They are just 11-11 straight up and 10-11-1 ATS. The Spurs are actually above .500 at home, going 11-10 thus far.

Miami also have a few key injuries in this one, with Justise Winslow and Tyler Herro both expected to miss. I also like the revenge factor for San Antonio here after they lost a close one in Miami last Thursday.

Dejounte Murray is questionable for this one, which gives me some pause. If he goes ahead and plays, I like the Spurs outright at $1.95.

Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers, 12 pm
Pacers +2

I’m going with another contrarian play here, taking the Indiana Pacers +2 points. A whopping 80% of the early action has come in on Denver, so this line could easily go up before tip-off.

The Nuggets are really banged up here, with Millsap, Harris, and Murray all already ruled out. Save for Victor Oladipo, the Pacers are essentially fully healthy in this one.

They should be relatively well-rested, with this being the first game of their road trip. This is the front end of a back-to-back for Denver, who may not be able to go all out in this one.

Indiana have also been an improving road side of late, moving to .500 straight up and 11-9 ATS. Their bigs should help them hang with Denver in this spot and I’ll gladly take the 2 points of insurance.

Sunday, January 19

Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks, 10 am
Nets +8.5

The Nets find themselves as 8.5-point home underdogs here, which I think is just too many. They’ve been fairly solid at home this season, securing an 11-9 record thus far.

They should also be relatively well rested, having 2 days off and playing their fifth game at home in their last 6. Having Kyrie back is a noticeable boost for this side and should help the offence against a strong Bucks defence.

Having been on such a poor run recently, I think the Nets are also undervalued in the market. They’ve only won and covered twice in their last 10, which is probably leaving a negative taste in punter’s mouths.

This could easily be the nadir in value, especially in a high-profile game that they’ll no doubt be motivated for. I’m not confident they pull off the upset here, but they’re absolutely capable of keeping it under 9 points.

Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic, 12:30 pm
Warriors +4.5

I’m taking another home underdog here, with Golden State getting 4.5 points against Orlando. Orlando have been a very ordinary road side this season, going just 7-14 straight up.

While Golden State haven’t been great at home, they’re a middling 10-11 ATS. The Draymond Green injury is notable here, but Eric Paschall can do a capable job in replacement.

Orlando are also likely to be very fatigued here, playing the final game of a gruelling 5-game West Coast trip. This is compounded by cluster injuries at PG and SF, with Augustin, Carter Williams, Isaac and Aminu all out for this one.

The Warriors have looked more competitive at home of late and I think the slightly earlier tip-off will benefit them here. This has all the makings of a close one late and I’ll take Golden State with the 4.5 currently on offer.

Saturday, January 18

Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls, 11 am
76ers -7.5

The Sixers have been a dominant home side all season and I think the line of 7.5 points isn’t enough here. They’re an outstanding 19-2 at the Wells Fargo Center, compared to a road record of 7-13 for Chicago.

Even without Embiid, the Sixers have a ton of talented players that they can put on the floor. Chicago are really battling the injury bug. Carter, Porter, and Gafford are all out for several weeks, while they’ve got an additional 4-5 players that are game time decisions.

Especially with a banged-up roster, I can see their 3rd game and plane trip in 4 nights being really fatiguing. A line this low suggests Philly would be favoured by around a point in Chicago, which would definitely get bet up.

Given the early money coming in on Philadelphia, I recommend taking the 7.5 as soon as you can.

San Antonio Spurs vs Atlanta Hawks, 12:30 pm
Spurs -8

The Spurs are currently 8-point favourites against an Atlanta side that have been one of the worst in the NBA. The Spurs themselves haven’t been all that great, but they’re still in with a legit shot at the playoffs.

They have a decent 11-9 home record, compared to a porous 4-18 on the road for Atlanta. The Hawks are also battling a few key rotation injuries and are likely to be short-handed for this one.

This is only compounded by the trade they made yesterday, where the new additions won’t be ready to play. It can also have negative affects on morale in the locker room, which was probably pretty low to begin with.

San Antonio are injury free at this point and have made their living beating teams like Atlanta over the years. They have a bunch of solid Guard defenders, who should really make life difficult for Trae Young.

If they can contain Young, I’d expect his teammates to crumble in what should be a double-digit home win for the Spurs.

Friday, January 17

New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz, 12 pm
Jazz -4.5

Utah have rebounded after a bit of a slow start, now sitting with an impressive 28-12 record. They’re currently laying 4.5 points here and I like them to win and cover against an injury plagued New Orleans side.

The Jazz are one of the form teams in the NBA, having won 9 of their last 10 to climb the Western Conference standings. They’ve been a better side on the road this year, going 13-9 straight up and 12-10 ATS.

New Orleans are far from a good home side, sporting a poor 7-12 record thus far. They’re also dealing with a ton of injuries, which I think will really hinder them here.

Jrue Holiday and Kenrich Williams have already been ruled out, with JJ Redick, Derrick Favors, Jahlil Okafor and Brandon Ingram all questionable. Utah’s injury luck continues to remain decent, with only Mike Conley missing as part of his extended absence.

I think the injuries to the New Orleans backcourt make it very difficult for them to score here, leading to a Jazz win and cover at this relatively modest line.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets, 2:30 pm
Warriors +7

The 9-33 Warriors host the 27-12 Nuggets here, currently getting 7 points as an underdog. Golden State have struggled a lot this season, but I think they’re fairly good value here in this spot.

This is a national tv game, where they’ve tended to perform better this season. They beat Houston on Christmas Day and were competitive against Milwaukee last week.

Their 6-14 home record isn’t great, but it dwarfs their 3-19 record on the road. Denver also just isn’t the same team on the road, going 11-7 compared to 17-5 at home.

They’re on a back-to-back after playing late last night and are dealing with some key injuries. Paul Millsap and Gary Harris didn’t play against Charlotte yesterday, while Jamal Murray left early with an ankle injury. A few of these guys may not be risked here in a game they likely should win.

Overall, the injuries and fatigue for Denver make me think Golden State can compete here. Especially getting 7 points, I’ll take the underdog in what should be a close one.