Utah are currently laying 3 points and I’m expecting them to both win and cover here. I think they’re the better of these two sides and also possess one of the best home court advantages in the NBA.
They’ve been in red hot form of late, winning 9 of their last 10 and covering in 8 of those games. They’re an exceptional 17-3 at home, no doubt buoyed by their altitude advantage.
With Dwight Powell done for the year, they also match up very well against the Dallas interior. I expect them to contain Porzingis here, putting much more pressure on Luka to generate offence.
The Mavs have tailed off slightly of late, only covering 4 times in their last 10 games overall. Utah have several solid wing defenders, all of which will work together to make life difficult on Luka.
Given their home record this season, I also think Utah’s home court is worth more than the traditional 3 points. Factor in that they’re healthy and the more talented side and this is a definite value play.