Monday, March 2

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 am
Wolves +6.5

They don’t inspire much confidence, but I’ll take the Wolves getting 6.5 points here. They’ve been in some atrocious recent form, which I think has really undervalued them in the market.

They’ve won just twice and covered only 3 times in their last 10, compared to 5 wins and covers for Dallas. Their home ATS mark is a miserable 6-21-2, which is bound to improve simply by the law of averages.

Dallas are also feeling the injury pinch here. Rotation pieces in Cauley Stein and Brunson are definitely out, while Luka Doncic remains questionable. From the Minnesota side, all of the main players are expected to be available.

These early Sunday starts tend to favour the home side and I can see that case being again here. Dallas enter this one the more injured and fatigued side, which should give Minnesota a leg up with the 6.5-point start.

Sacramento Kings vs Detroit Pistons, 10 am
Kings -7.5

This is a bit of a borderline play, but I see some value on Sacramento here laying 7.5 points. They’re only 3.5 games back of a playoff spot out West and I see motivation being quite high here.

On the flipside, Detroit have barely anything to play for here. This is the fourth and final game of their West Coast swing and they’ve already picked up their token win.

They’ve been atrocious on the road this season, going just 9-21 straight up and 12-17-1 ATS. While the Kings record for the season isn’t great, winning 7 and covering 8 of their last 10 is indicative of great form.

This play does hinge somewhat on the availability of De’Aaron Fox, but signs would suggest that he plays here. I think the more motivated and talented side has a shot at a route here, making 7.5 a very playable number.

Sunday, March 1

Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Lakers, 12 pm
Lakers -6

I’m rolling with the assumption that LeBron is returning here, but would caution against betting until he is confirmed available. LA are currently 6-point road favourites against Memphis, who have really slipped of late due to injuries.

The Lakers enter this clash nice and rested, with their only game since Wednesday being a blowout win over Golden State. After getting humbled by the Clippers and Rockets, Memphis enter this one on the second night of a back-to-back.

Both sides are dealing with a few injuries, but Memphis’ appear to be more problematic here. They are decimated at the forward positions, with Justise Winslow, Brandon Clarke, and Jaren Jackson all ruled out.

The Lakers are also one of the premier road sides in the NBA, compiling a 24-5 record thus far. They’ve got the matchup and rest advantage here, which should help cover a relatively modest 6-point line.

Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets, 12:30 pm
Rockets +2

Houston have been in strong form of late, and I like them getting 2 points away at Boston. Kemba Walker has been ruled out here, which really impacts Boston on offense.

The Rockets have gone all in on small ball and Boston just don’t have any bigs capable of punishing this. Houston have been in some great recent form, winning 8 of their last 10 and covering in 7 of those.

The Celtics still possess a fantastic 23-5 home record, but their inconsistent offense without Walker worries me. Houston’s defence has looked much better of late and could lead to some very easy transition opportunities here.

Houston are rested and fatigued here, starting their road trip after 2 full days off. I think they’ll complete the season sweep of Boston and pull off an outright upset win.

Saturday, February 29

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks, 12 pm
Heat -2

I like Miami in this spot, listed as early 2-point favourites in this one. This line is subject to change however, especially with Luka Doncic questionable.

The Heat just haven’t been good at all lately, winning and covering just 3 times in their last 10. That said, I think a lot of this has been due to their recent road-heavy schedule.

They’re still one of the best home teams in the NBA, going 23-4 straight up and 18-8-1 ATS on the season. They also have most of their full complement heading into this one, with only Leonard and Herro slated to miss.

Miami have a bunch of talented perimeter defenders that can cause problems for Doncic, if he does play. Given how well Adebayo has played this season, I also see him negating Porzingis here.

All in all, Miami is probably the slightly better of these two sides. Combine that with an elite home court advantage and this 2-point line is just too small.

LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets, 2:30 pm
Clippers -5.5

I had success backing the Clippers last time out and can really see this team making a run here. They’re currently 5.5-point favourites in this one and I like their chances of covering.

While this Denver team is quite talented overall, they have one major weakness, their inability to contain top-tier wing players. Unfortunately, the Clippers have two of these guys, which results in a very tough matchup for Denver.

They just have no-one that can realistically match up with Kawhi or PG on either end of the floor. Their roster is weaker as a result of the trade deadline, while the Clippers look to be as strong as ever.

LA have one of the best home records in the NBA, having gone an impressive 23-6 so far. Denver are a decent 17-11 on the road, but they aren’t the same team away from the altitude. With this line currently at 5.5, I think the Clippers are strong value.

Friday, February 28

OKC Thunder vs Sacramento Kings, 12 pm
Thunder -6.5

I like OKC in this spot, currently laying 6 points at home to Sacramento. They’ve been an effective home side all season, going 19-12 straight up and 17-14 ATS.

They’ve been in especially good recent form, winning 8 of their last 10 and covering in 6 of those. They enter this clash essentially fully healthy, with only long-term absentee Andre Roberson listed as out here.

The Thunder have played just 2 road games in the last 3 weeks and come into this one very refreshed. Sacramento are in the midst of a 4-game trip against Western Conference opponents, which could lead to some fatigue here.

OKC look to match up fairly well with this Kings team, especially considering the strength of their backcourt. A lack of reliable interior defenders for Sacramento could also lead to big nights for Gallinari and Steven Adams.

There aren’t too many options on the slate today, but OKC look relatively good value here at -6.5. This line is likely to only increase, so get in quick if you like OKC.

Thursday, February 27

Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic, 11:30 am
Hawks +3

I like Atlanta in this one, currently getting 3 points at home to the Magic. Accounting 3 points for home court, this line suggests Orlando would be 6-point favourites on a neutral, which is just too high.

The Magic have been a pretty poor road side all season, going just 10-18 ATS. They’ve not been in great form either, winning just 4 of their last 10 and covering only 3 of those times.

Atlanta have been in better form of late, with their home record now ahead of Orlando’s road record. They have injuries to Dedmon, Hunter, and Bembry here, but the majority of their key players will play.

Realistically, this has all the makings of a coin flip type of game. With an extra 3 points of insurance, I’ll take Atlanta here.

Phoenix Suns vs LA Clippers, 1 pm
Clippers -5.5

This is a bit of a square play, but I like the Clippers on the road in Phoenix. They are rested and healthy for this one, laying just 5.5 points.

The Suns haven’t had a great home court advantage this season, going just 11-18 straight up and ATS. The Clippers are 15-13 on the road, a number that is probably below their true talent level.

A major weakness that Phoenix has is their inability to guard the best wings on the opposition. This just doesn’t bode well against the likes of Kawhi and PG, who are also well equipped to guard Devin Booker.

The Clippers are also fighting for seeding here, while the Suns are essentially out of the playoff race. LA likely want revenge for their loss in Phoenix earlier this season, and I think they win comfortably here.

Wednesday, February 26

Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks, 11:30 am
Raptors +1.5

The Raptors have been in immense form of late, losing only 1 of their last 18 games. They open as 1.5-point home underdogs to Milwaukee here and I can definitely see some value on them.

They have been at home for the past fortnight, while Milwaukee travels to Canada on a back-to-back. Their injury list also appears to be shortening, with Marc Gasol the only rotation player expected to miss here.

Milwaukee are a very good road side, boasting a 22-5 record this season, but I think this is matched by Toronto’s 23-7 home record. I liken this to the game in Philly on Christmas day, where Milwaukee really struggled in a hostile environment against a good team.

The Raptors are playing their best ball of the season right now and really need this game for seeding purposes. Milwaukee are probably more fatigued and less motivated, which could lead to an outright upset here.

LA Lakers vs New Orleans Pelicans, 2 pm
Lakers -8

We’ve got another marquee matchup here and I like the Lakers at home against the Pelicans. They’re currently laying just 8 points, which I think overrates the Pelicans in the current market.

Both sides have been very good of late, winning 7 of their last 10 straight up. While this is par for the course for the Lakers, it has really come out of nowhere for New Orleans.

With punters cashing tickets on them regularly, I think their market price has been artificially inflated. They’ve won against a largely pedestrian schedule of late, struggling against quality opponents like Milwaukee and Houston.

The Lakers enter this game rested and motivated, while the Pels are playing their 3rd straight on the West Coast. This is also an Anthony Davis revenge spot and I’m sure he’ll be raring to go here.

Ultimately, we’re getting the talented and more motivated team at a value price point. I’ll lay 8 with the Lake Show here.

 

Tuesday, February 25

Houston Rockets vs New York Knicks, 12 pm
Rockets -14

The Rockets are laying a hefty 14 points here, but this game definitely has the potential to be a blowout. Houston have been in some strong form lately, winning 7 and covering 7 of their last 10 games.

They are one of the better home sides in the NBA, going 19-8 straight up, compared to just 9-19 on the road for the Knicks. They also look fairly healthy for this one, with Eric Gordon returning to the lineup last time out.

The Knicks, on the other hand, are dealing with a myriad of injuries in their backcourt. Ntilikina, Payton, and Ellington are all questionable here, which could really impact their ability to guard Westbrook and Harden.

With the Knicks season all but over, they just don’t have the incentive to go all out here. In a day with a real dearth of options, I’ll take my chances with Houston.

Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns, 1 pm
Jazz -7.5

Despite a recent dip in form, I like the Jazz at home in this one. Although they’ve won just 4 of their last 10 overall, they’ve got a very strong 20-7 home record this season.

They look to be fully healthy here, with both Mike Conley and Ed Davis returning to the lineup last time out. Phoenix are dealing with a ton of injuries in the backcourt, which could result in a struggle to contain Rudy Gobert.

This is also somewhat of a contrarian play, with only 35% of punters backing Utah so far. That said, the reverse line movement from 7 to 7.5 suggests that this is the sharp side to take here.

Especially against a porous Phoenix defence, this has all the makings of a get right game for Utah. I’d expect solid performances from both Mitchell and Gobert to propel them to the win and cover.

Monday, February 24

Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers, 10 am
Raptors -5

I like the Raptors at home in this one, currently laying a relatively modest 5 points. They’ve got a ton of advantages here, and I’d expect them to comfortably win and cover.

First and foremost, they’ve been one of the best home sides in the NBA this season. They’ve gone 22-7 at the ACC, compared to just 14-13 on the road for Indiana.

Toronto also enter this clash on a very hot streak, winning 9 of their last 10 and covering the spread in 6 of those. Indiana have struggled in comparison, winning just 3 and covering only 4 times over that same period.

The Raptors also look fairly healthy headed into this clash, with only Marc Gasol entering as an injury doubt. Indiana will likely be without Victor Oladipo here, which would really impact their offensive firepower. It’s a great spot for Toronto and I think they’ll take full advantage.

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 am
Wolves +12.5

I like the Wolves in this one, currently getting a fairly generous 12.5 points. They’ve been on an atrocious run of form, but I think this has undervalued them in the market.

They’ve only won and covered once out of their last 10 games, compared to a respectable 6-4 mark for Denver. I don’t see how this can get much worse, meaning that they’re likely at their nadir in value.

They look to be a better and faster offensive team of late, which could really pay dividends in the altitude. KAT has performed well against Jokic throughout his career, a trend I can see continuing here.

Denver should win this relatively comfortably, but the 12.5 points gives plenty of room for a backdoor cover. I think Minnesota’s offence does just enough here that they’re good value plus the points.

Sunday, February 23

Chicago Bulls vs Phoenix Suns, 12 pm
Bulls +1.5

The Bulls find themselves as 1.5-point home underdogs here and I think they’ve got a good shot to cover. This is a classic case of betting numbers and not teams.

Phoenix are getting all of the action here, receiving 70% of the early money. While they’re probably the better of these two sides, I’m not sure they should be road favourites.

I also like the reverse line movement angle, which has seen the line move in Chicago’s favour despite receiving the minority of the bets. This suggests that the sharps are really on the Bulls here, likely due to the perceived line value.

Both sides are facing a myriad of injuries, but Phoenix appear decimated in the frontcourt right now. Baynes, Saric, and Ayton are all on the injury report and will find it tough to suit up on a back-to-back.

Overall, this is a game where the line should probably be flipped. The Bulls have a solid chance to win and I’ll take them plus the points.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets, 1 pm
Rockets +2.5

I’m going with another contrarian play here, taking Houston as road underdogs in Utah. They’re getting only 28% of the early action, but I believe they’ve got a few advantages here.

Their injury report is essentially empty, while Utah could very well be without Mike Conley here. They also enter this clash after a back-to-back, while Houston are rested after a blowout win over Golden State.

I also think the Rockets will be motivated for revenge, after suffering a controversial close loss on Feb 10th. They’ve got the ability to really run in transition, which could upset Utah’s traditional big lineups.

Combine the rest and health advantage with a strong road record and I think Houston has a chance at the upset here. I’ll gladly take them plus the points in this spot.

Saturday, February 22

Orlando Magic vs Dallas Mavericks, 11 am
Magic +4

I like the Magic in this one, currently getting 4 points as home underdogs. This screams like a strong contrarian play, with just 23% of the action on Orlando so far.

They’ve been a respectable home side this season, going 17-15 straight up. They have also really healed up over the All-Star break, which should be of benefit here.

They had been in some pretty poor form before the break, winning just 3 times in their last 10 and covering only twice. As a result, I think the public is undervaluing them here and they could be a good side to back in the coming weeks.

While Dallas have been strong on the road this season, I believe that is built into the number here. Orlando have a few guys they can throw at Doncic, which should help keep this one close. I think this game could go either way and I’ll gladly take Orlando +4.

Portland Trail Blazers vs New Orleans Pelicans, 2:30 pm
Blazers +4.5

This looks like a prime example of the Ewing theory. Dame Lillard is expected to be out here, with Portland getting 4.5 points at home against New Orleans.

I expect the team to step up in his absence, something they’ve done well in recent years. CJ McCollum in particular should be able to thrive here, putting the team on his back offensively.

New Orleans are hardly a great side. They’ve looked better of late with Zion in town, but they’re just 23-32 straight up and 12-15 on the road this season.

Portland performs much better at home and I’d expect them to play well here, especially considering the rest. Especially with the hook of 4.5, I like the Blazers plus the points in this one.