Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers just weren’t up to it at all during game 5 in Toronto, falling by an astounding 36 points. Jimmy Butler continues to be the only Sixer to show up offensively, leading the way with 22 points and 7 assists. Joel Embiid still appears to be feeling the effects of his injury, going for just 13 points and 6 boards to go along with 8 turnovers. Aussie Ben Simmons has also been completely anonymous all series, scoring just 7 points in his 25 minutes of action.

Toronto Raptors

Much like game 1, the Raptors dominated from start to finish as they regained control of the series. Kawhi Leonard continues to lead the way offensively, going for a cool 21 points and 13 boards. Despite being inefficient, Pascal Siakam did look much better en route to 25 points and 8 rebounds. Kyle Lowry also got involved in the offence, adding 19 points, 6 boards, and 5 assists of his own.

Prediction: 76ers +1

Each of these sides has now had multiple games in this series where they’ve looked absolutely terrible. The star players of Philly have largely struggled so far and there is definite room for improvement from both Simmons and Embiid. I thought Philly were comfortably the better side in both of their home games in this series and I can see that continuing here. Currently listed as 1-point underdogs, I think we’re going to a game 7.

Portland Trail Blazers

Much like the Sixers, Portland were diabolical in game 5 and deserved to be thoroughly beaten. Damian Lillard was the only starter who could produce offensively, going for 22 points and 6 boards. While he has been a nice story during these playoffs, it’s time to acknowledge how outmatched Enes Kanter is going against Jokic. Portland will need a huge game from McCollum in this one, who was held to just 5/16 in the game 5 loss.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets played some excellent basketball in game 5, dominating throughout en route to a 22-point win. Nikola Jokic continues to be the best player on the court in this series, going for 25 points, 19 boards, and 6 assists. Paul Millsap joined him in feasting on the interior, adding 24 points, 8 boards, and 2 blocks of his own. Jamal Murray also did a great job of getting his teammates involved, pouring in 18 points and 9 assists.

Prediction: Blazers -3.5

The way this series has played out is eerily similar to Denver’s first round series with San Antonio. Denver thoroughly outclassed the Spurs in game 5, before getting destroyed in an elimination game 6. Portland is one of the better NBA sides at home this season and I think they can turn it on for a game here. I ultimately think Denver wins this series, but it’ll have to be in a game 7 at home.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks return home after 2 incredibly impressive road wins to take control of this series. Giannis was immense yet again, leading the way with 39 points, 16 boards, and 4 steals. George Hill continues to provide solid minutes off the bench, adding 15 points, 5 assists, and 4 boards of his own. The fact that the Bucks won comfortably despite a 4-19 night from Khris Middleton should spell warning signs for Boston.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics season may well be over after consecutive disappointing home losses. Despite putting up 23 points and 10 assists, Kyrie Irving was an inefficient 7-22 from the field. Marcus Morris and Jayson Tatum both added something in the frontcourt, each managing a double-double in this one. The return of Marcus Smart should positively impact Boston going forward, although he shot a miserable 1-7 from the field in game 4.

Prediction: Bucks 1-10

A lofty 9.5-point spread actually represents some value on Boston in my opinion. That said, I don’t see them going into Milwaukee and forcing a game 6. Giannis is playing on another level right now and the Bucks role players are really stepping up. With all this in mind, Bucks by 1-10 looks to be the best value play on the board.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors return home after another close road loss where they played atrociously. Kevin Durant continues to score at will, going off for 34 points, 7 boards, and 5 assists. Steph Curry also added 30 points and 8 assists of his own, although he was relatively inefficient from 3. As has become custom, the Warriors got absolutely nothing from a bench that scored just 11 points between them.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets did what they had to do on their home floor and levelled the series at 2 apiece. James Harden had another dominant offensive display, going off for 38 points and 10 boards in the win. PJ Tucker was a monster on the interior, pouring in 17 much-needed points to go along with 10 boards. Even the corpse of Austin Rivers is producing in this series, with Doc’s son again scoring in double figures off the bench.

Prediction: Warriors -5.5

While Golden State has historically been great after a loss in the playoffs, they just didn’t bring the necessary energy in game 4. I just can’t see that happening on their home floor where they’ll be buoyed by a raucous Oracle crowd. They haven’t played anywhere near their potential in 3 of the 4 games this series, making me think there is definitely room for a turnaround. If KD keeps firing and the Splash Brothers make a few 3’s, it should be business as usual in game 5.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors return home after a gritty road win in what was an epic game 4. Kawhi Leonard put his squad on his back, leading the way with 39 points, 14 boards, and 5 assists. Marc Gasol had one of his better games of the series, containing Joel Embiid and dropping 16 points and 5 boards. Kyle Lowry also had somewhat of a bounce back game, going for 14 points, 7 assists, and 6 boards.

Philadelphia 76ers

Game 4 represented a huge missed opportunity for Philadelphia, who looked like they’d win for most of the game. Jimmy Butler again led the way offensively, going off for 29 points and 11 rebounds. JJ Redick supported him capably, adding 19 efficient points of his own. A sick Joel Embiid wasn’t at his usual best, while Philadelphia still needs a lot more from Aussie Ben Simmons.

Prediction: 76ers +6.5

While Kawhi has been the best player in this series, the Raptors bench outside of Serge Ibaka has been atrocious. Pascal Siakam is also battling a relatively serious injury and was a shadow of himself in game 4. On the other side, Embiid, Simmons, and Harris all have significant room for improvement. I expect this to be a very close game that could go either way, meaning there is strong value on Philly +6.5 and the moneyline.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets showed a ton of character after their quadruple overtime loss to steal game 4 on the road. Jamal Murray was outstanding, battling through injury to drop 34 points, 5 boards, and 4 assists. Nikola Jokic continues to feast on the interior, adding a triple double that was headlined by 21 points. Even veteran Paul Millsap is getting in on the act, pouring in 21 points and 10 boards of his own.

Portland Trail Blazers

Just like the Sixers, Portland will be rueing what they should see as a missed opportunity in game 4. CJ McCollum had another efficient night offensively, pouring in 29 points and 5 boards. Dame Lillard appears to have regressed slightly from the OKC series, shooting just 9/22 in this one. Portland also got great production from Al Farouq Aminu and Seth Curry in game 4, the two role players combining for 35 points.

Prediction: Nuggets 1^st Half -2.5

Despite it being 2-2 overall, I think Denver has outplayed Portland for large stretches of this series. They’ve got an overwhelming advantage on the interior and the Blazers have no answer for the power of Jokic and Millsap. Denver has also been an excellent home side this season while Portland has been somewhat below average on the road. I can see this being a close one late, however I trust Denver to get out to a fast start in the altitude.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics lost control of the series in a relatively disappointing game 3 that they lost by 7 points. Kyrie Irving led the way with 29 points, although he did struggle to just 8-22 from the field. Jayson Tatum looked much better in this one, going for 20 points, 11 boards, and 3 steals. Marcus Morris also continues to be a valuable piece of this starting lineup, going for 16 points and 8 boards of his own.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks looked like the dominant team they’ve been all season with an impressive road win in game 3. Giannis led the way as per usual, going for 32 points, 13 boards, and 8 assists. Khris Middleton was a more than capable sidekick, adding in 20 points and 5 assists of his own. The surprise contribution came from George Hill, who came out of nowhere to pour in 21 points on 9/12 shooting.

Prediction: 1^st Half Over 108.5

The Refs have gotten a lot tighter with their whistles, making it much more difficult for Boston to guard Giannis. Naturally, this has led to much higher scoring Milwaukee outings, including an impressive 123 points in game 3. Boston also had a strong night offensively, shooting over 30 free throws and 40% from 3. I expect this trend to continue in game 4, especially in the first half where we are receiving a couple of points of line value.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets essentially kept their season alive with an impressive 5-point win in game 3. James Harden had his best game of the playoffs so far, going off for 41 points, 9 boards, and 6 assists. Eric Gordon had another very strong performance, making 7 3’s as he scored 30 points. Clint Capela was also a huge interior presence, registering another double-double, including 5 offensive rebounds.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors were relatively poor in game 3, yet they still had their chances to win it late. Stephen Curry was particularly atrocious, going just 7/23 from the field in 45 minutes. Kevin Durant had another dominant offensive display, dropping 46 points to go along with his 6 assists. Draymond Green also continued his solid 2-way series, adding a triple-double that was headlined by 19 points.

Prediction: Warriors +2

I think the Warriors can take solace in the fact that they were still close despite a poor performance. The coaching staff has several adjustments they can make and we should see a much tighter rotation in game 4. While KD may not be as strong going forward, both Steph and Klay would struggle to play any worse. Golden State still has a huge talent edge when they go with their best 5 and I expect them to lean on them heavily again here. They want this series over in 5 and I think they make that a reality with an outright win as the road underdog.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets were thoroughly outclassed in game 2 and head back home in a precarious 0-2 position. James Harden again led the way offensively, battling an eye injury to drop 29 points and 6 boards. Chris Paul played a mammoth 40 minutes in game 2, racking up 18 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists in the process. Houston also got solid production from their frontcourt, with both Clint Capela an PJ Tucker getting double-doubles.

Golden State Warriors

It was a vintage performance from Golden State in game 2 as they gained a stranglehold on this series with a home win and cover. Kevin Durant continues to be the hottest player in the NBA these playoffs, going for 29 points and 5 boards. Draymond Green also enjoyed one of his better recent performances, going for 15 points, 12 boards, and 7 assists. Andre Iguodala has been an excellent contributor to the Warriors best lineup, adding 16 points and 5 boards of his own. Throw in 20-point efforts from both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and the Warriors best lineup has been killing it.

Prediction: Warriors $2.40

One of the most profitable playoff trends in recent years has been backing the home team down 0-2 in the series. That said, the market has begun to overreact to this trend, which hasn’t even been profitable in this post-season. Golden State is a significantly better side than Houston and I think punters haven’t realised just how important a healthy Andre Iguodala is.

The Rockets have no-one to credibly guard KD, while Draymond has been destroying everything defensively. Both Steph and Klay can also play much better, giving Golden State even more of an edge. I get the situational spot here, but I can’t recall a healthy Warriors side getting $2.40 in recent memory. I expect them to go for the throat in this matchup and ensure they close the series in 5 or less. Getting $2.40 with the healthy champs is something I just can’t pass up.

This is primarily a line value play. The full game total for this is 221.5 points and I’d expect the majority of that to occur in the second half. This played out in a game 2 that was destined for the under until some late fouling. This series is definitely more defensive based than a lot of punters realise and I continue to think there is some good value on the under. I don’t mind the full game under but am definitely a fan of under in the first half with a few extra points of value.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks had an absolutely atrocious start to the series, getting dominated at home in game 1. Giannis just couldn’t get anything consistent going offensively, finishing just 7/21 from the field. His teammates didn’t really help him out either, with the rest of the starters going a combined 8/29. Nikola Mirotic did open things up with 13 bench points and will likely see more minutes in game 2.

Boston Celtics

As predicted, the Celtics proved to be a huge step up in competition for Milwaukee, comfortably taking game 1 on the road. Kyrie Irving was again the offensive leader for this team, dropping a well-rounded stat line of 26 points, 11 assists, and 7 boards. Al Horford was dominant on both ends, dropping 20 and 10 on offence and shutting down Giannis on defence. A combined 32 points from Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward was more than enough as Boston shot 54% from the field.

Prediction: Celtics +7.5

The Celtics have been very strong as a road underdog this season and are now 11-6 ATS after their game 1 upset. The only thing that gives me pause about backing them here is just how dominant they were in game 1. I think Milwaukee comes out incredibly hard here with their season likely on the line. That said, I still think this ends up as a close one that could go either way, meaning Boston are solid value through the key number of 7.

Golden State Warriors

Despite being on minimal rest, the Warriors enjoyed a gritty and determined win in game 1. Kevin Durant was unsurprisingly the star of the show, leading the way with 35 points and 5 boards. Draymond Green was also very strong on both ends, ending just 1 assist and 1 rebound shy of a triple-double. Andre Iguodala rounded out the Hamptons 5 by making some key shots, going 6/7 from the field en route to 14 points.

Houston Rockets

It was a missed opportunity for the Rockets in game 1, who ultimately fought hard in defeat. James Harden did put up a solid 35 points and 6 assists, however he was an incredibly inefficient 9/28 from the field. Eric Gordon also had a mammoth night offensively, going 10/19 from the field en route to 27 huge points. Chris Paul added 17 points before his ejection but no other Rocket could score in double figures.

Prediction: Warriors -5.5

I don’t think the Warriors played particularly well in game 1 yet they still got the job done and largely led throughout. James Harden’s foul-drawing theatrics were definitely a bit ridiculous and Golden State looks to have him rattled yet again. While they were both questionable with injuries in game 1, both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have definite room for improvement in game 2. Combine this with another strong day from KD and I expect Golden State to really seize control of this series with a home win and cover.