Toronto Raptors

The Raptors managed to grind their way to a double-overtime victory in game 3, winning 118-112. Kawhi Leonard deserves an immense amount of credit for his performance, battling injury to play 52 minutes and drop 36 points. Pascal Siakam also finally broke out of his slump, dropping 21 points and 9 boards of his own in 51 minutes. Norman Powell provided an underrated X-Factor off the bench, pouring in a further 19 points as he looks to take the starting Shooting Guard job.

Milwaukee Bucks

While the Bucks could’ve essentially put the series to bed last time out, they’ll have to rebound quickly for a game 4. Giannis again put up some monster numbers of 23 points, 7 assists, and 4 blocks, although he only managed 12 points. George Hill was again fantastic off the bench, adding 24 points and 7 boards of his own on 7/9 shooting. Bucks fans will also be encouraged by the performance from Malcolm Brogdon, who had a solid 20-point outing of his own.

Prediction: Bucks -2

The Bucks have been absolutely dynamite after a loss this season, going 19-4 for the best mark in the NBA. They were also nowhere near their best in game 3, yet sill gave Toronto everything they could handle. Contrast that with a Raptors side who left absolutely everything on the court and now their best player is in doubt with injury. The Bucks have proven to be the better and deeper team in this series and I think they take an unassailable lead in this crucial game 4.

Game 3 was so physically and mentally taxing on the players that I expect a much slower pace in this one. Toronto have particularly struggled to score all series, a trend which could be exacerbated if Kawhi isn’t 100%. Both sides have also been relatively poor shooting from deep in this series and I don’t see this reversing any time soon. Combine the fatigue, injuries, and strong perimeter defence of these two sides and I see a relatively low-scoring affair in this one.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers blew yet another lead in game 3 with an atrocious second half that sees them fall into an 0-3 hole. Damian Lillard again wasn’t good enough, going just 5/18 from the field en route to 19 points and 6 assists. Likewise for CJ McCollum, who fought valiantly for his 20 points but ultimately shot just 7/20 from the field. Meyers Leonard and Evan Turner have emerged as potential X-Factors for this side, both scoring in double figures in game 3.

Golden State Warriors

Despite a sluggish start in game 3, another dominant Warriors second half saw them claim a well-deserved victory. Steph Curry continues to wreak havoc on the weaker competition, going off for 36 points, 6 boards, and 3 assists. Draymond Green was just as solid on the other end, adding 20 points, 13 boards, and 12 assists to go with his 4 steals. Klay Thompson rounded out the big 3 nicely, dropping 19 points, 5 boards, and 5 assists of his own. A potential worry for Golden State is the injury to Andre Iguodala, who shot just 1/5 from the field in his 18 minutes.

Prediction: Blazers +3.5

Having been swept in each of the past two post-seasons, Portland will be motivated to avoid that same fate here. Especially with the comebacks Golden State has pulled off in the last 2, I can see them being complacent in this one. If Andre Iguodala is out injured, that makes an already thin rotation even thinner. Ultimately, the Warriors have done their job in Portland and can’t be too upset if they have to finish things off in a game 5 at home.

While Portland’s players are definitely fatigued, Golden State is also imposing a very heavy workload on their starters. This makes me think we should see a somewhat slower pace in game 4, especially with only 1 day of rest. Combine the lower number of possessions with some relatively poor shooting from deep and it’s likely another low scoring affair in game 4. 220.5 points is a bit too high for my liking and I’m relatively confident in the under here.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were thoroughly outclassed in game 2, falling to the dreaded 0-2 deficit. Kawhi Leonard was the only Raptor who could consistently produce offensively, going for 31 points and 8 boards in the win. Norman Powell provided a spark off the bench with 14 quick points, meaning he could be in line for a start in game 3. The Raptors will need much more from the rest of their starters in game 3, or else this series likely doesn’t go past 5 games.

Milwaukee Bucks

On the contrary, Milwaukee delivered a very strong team performance that saw them manage another well-deserved win. Giannis unsurprisingly ran the show, pouring in 30 points, 17 boards, 5 assists, and 2 blocks. Nikola Mirotic continues to add a solid spacing element to the starting lineup, going for a quick-fire 15 points and 6 boards. The Bucks bench has also been especially solid of late, with Ersan Ilyasova, George Hill, and Malcolm Brogdon all scoring 13 or more points.

Prediction: Raptors -2.5

While the Bucks have been largely dominant so far, game 3 home sides that are 0-2 in the series tend to perform very well. They’re playing with much more motivation and essentially have their season on the line in this spot. Toronto has been a very solid home side all season long and I expect their fans to be well up for this one. They have significant room for improvement with the rest of their starters and I think a better performance from them translates to a comfortable home win in this spot.

One reason for the Raptors offensive struggles of late has been the declining play of Pascal Siakam. The Cameroonian had a great regular season and start to the playoffs, but has largely struggled since the middle of the Sixers series. There is a ton of speculation that he just isn’t right, scoring only 8 points in 26 minutes of game 2 action. With their season well and truly on the line here, I expect a resurgent performance from Pascal in this one. He’s a better player than he has showed so far in this series and I think a stellar performance from him here helps Toronto get the job done.

Portland Trail Blazers

Game 2 can only be described as a missed opportunity for the Blazers, who were up huge at halftime only to fade down the stretch. Damian Lillard put up solid numbers of 23 points, 10 assists, and 5 boards, although he did shoot just 6/16 from the field. While CJ McCollum had it going early, he really faded down the stretch and missed all 6 of his crucial 4^th quarter shot attempts. It was Seth Curry who actually provided Portland with some much-needed energy down the stretch, dropping 16 points and getting 4 steals.

Golden State Warriors

Zach Lowe tweeted after the game that we’ve seen that Warriors performance around 75 times over the past few years and I have to agree. Golden State was incredible down the stretch, overcoming a huge halftime deficit and another big deficit late in the 4^th. Steph Curry has been comfortably the best player on the floor in this series, leading his side with an outstanding 37 points, 8 assists, and 8 boards. Draymond Green was also dynamite on both ends, falling 3 assists shy of a triple-double and registering 5 blocks. Klay Thompson added 24 points of his own, while Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney both scored double digits off the bench.

Prediction: Blazers -2.5

While there is almost no line value at all on this play, game 3 home sides who are down 0-2 have been dynamite ATS in recent years. After what was a much better performance in game 2, the Blazers definitely fit this trend here. Both CJ and Dame still have definite room for improvement, combining for just 15/41 last time out. Having done their job at home, there is also a sense that Golden State could be complacent in this one, knowing they can do the job at home if needed. Combine all these factors and I think Portland gets the home win here in game 3, much like Houston in the conference semis.

If Portland are indeed going to win this game, I think Damian Lillard really needs to step up. He’s understandably fatigued from his huge minute totals but he’s far and away their best hope in this series. Steph Curry has thoroughly outplayed him on both ends and that is the difference between the two sides so far. Dame has been dynamite at home in these playoffs and I can see this continuing here in game 3. Assuming his standard 20+ shooting possession night, I think Dame ultimately gets over this well-set total.

Milwaukee Bucks

Game 1 was an overall impressive display by the Bucks, who overcame an early deficit to win by 8. Giannis Antetokounmpo anchored the offence as usual, going for 24 points, 14 boards, and 6 assists. Brook Lopez also had an excellent two-way game, pouring in 29 points, 11 boards, and 3 blocks. Khris Middleton added a double-double of his own, while Malcolm Brogdon looked effective off the bench with 15 points. The fact that Milwaukee won despite shooting under 40% from the field and 25% from 3 should concern Toronto going forward.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors got off to a very solid start in game 1 after their epic second round, however they just couldn’t sustain that pace throughout. Kawhi Leonard again led the way offensively, pouring in 31 gritty points to go along with 9 boards and 3 steals. Kyle Lowry also stepped up in a big way, dropping 30 points and 8 boards on an outstanding 7-9 from 3. The rest of the side simply failed to show up offensively, with Pascal Siakam the only other Raptor to eclipse 6 points.

Prediction: Raptors +6.5

The Raptors have been impressive as a road underdog this year and would’ve covered game 1 if not for some late free throws. I think they’re a much better side than what they showed and are due for a better performance in this one. They’ve also been very strong after a loss throughout these playoffs and I expect peak motivation here for game 2. I think these sides are closer than the 6.5-point line would suggest and the Raptors should at least keep this one close.

Despite cashing with the under in game 1, I think we’re due for a change of fortunes in game 2. Game 1 was definitely a fast-paced affair, with both sides eclipsing 100 offensive possessions. The main reason for the under was that both sides shot poorly from 3, combining for an average of about 30%. Assuming this pace stays the same and the shooting slightly improves, the over represents solid line value in this spot.

Golden State Warriors

Despite not even playing all that well, the Warriors dominated in game 1 en route to a 22 point victory. Stephen Curry ran the show in this one, going off for 36 points, 7 assists, and 6 boards. Klay Thompson was a more than capable sidekick, pouring in 24 points, 3 boards, and 3 steals of his own. Draymond Green also continues to have a strong impact on both ends, adding a double-double to go along with 5 assists and 3 blocks. All 13 Warriors players played and had a positive plus-minus in this one, indicative of their dominance.

Portland Trail Blazers

While Golden State weren’t at their best, Portland were absolutely atrocious in game 1. CJ McCollum couldn’t get anything going after his game 7 heroics, shooting just 7/19 and registering only 1 assist. Things weren’t much better for Dame Lillard, who shot just 4/12 from the field and was absolutely cooked by Steph on the other end. Enes Kanter did manage a double-double on the interior, although he also had one of the more pathetic defensive games I’ve seen.

Prediction: Under 217.5

Under in Warriors home games has been a profitable trend all year and one that continued in game 1. This was despite a hot shooting day from 3 for Golden State and a ton of free throws for Portland. Although this total has come down 1 point for game 2, I still think there is plenty of value on the under. Both of these sides are super reliant on their backcourts for offence and are playing some very limited line-ups at times.

Both sides weren’t near their best in game 1, yet Golden State still won at a canter. This makes me think they may be somewhat complacent entering game 2, while Portland has to come out with a ton of energy. As such, I can see this one being a much closer game than in game 1 that ultimately comes down to the wire. I still don’t see Portland getting the outright win at Oracle, making Warriors 1-10 the best value bet.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks enter this series well rested after a comprehensive victory over Boston in just 5 games. Game 5 showed just how deep and versatile this team is, with 7 players scoring in double figures. Giannis unsurprisingly led the way, dropping another well-rounded stat line of 20 points, 8 boards, and 8 assists. George Hill also provided a ton of juice off the bench, dropping at least 15 points in each of his last 3. With Malcolm Brogdon returning in game 5, the Bucks are essentially at full strength here.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors make the trip to Milwaukee after a truly epic game 7 where they won by 2 points. Kawhi Leonard was the hero, dropping 41 points and the game winner on 16/39 shooting. Serge Ibaka also provided some huge bench minutes, adding 17 points and 8 boards of his own. Marc Gasol also deserves a ton of credit for his stellar defence on Joel Embiid, playing a mammoth 45 minutes at 34 years of age.

Prediction: Under 218

The Raptors showed a serious inability to generate reliable offence outside of Kawhi Leonard in their series with the Sixers. Pascal Siakam has had a stellar series but injuries appear to be getting the better of him. Toronto is also likely to be incredibly fatigued after that mammoth game 7 and I expect a somewhat slower pace in this one. The Bucks are also one of the league’s premier defensive teams and should be able to contain Toronto in this one. Especially if their shots aren’t falling, I really like the under at this number.

Despite a comfortable series win over Boston, there are still some people doubting the Bucks. Given their historic regular season and playoff dominance so far, I think they’re very reminiscent of the 14/15 Warriors. This is a deep and versatile roster that also boasts the best home record in the association. They’ve got more reliable contributors and a huge rest advantage here, making me think they’re a solid bet to win this series. While prevailing wisdom is that the home team usually wins in 5 or 7, Milwaukee’s strong road form shows they can also win in Toronto. At very stellar odds of $5.25, I’ll channel my inner Brandon Jennings and predict the Bucks in 6.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors enter this series off arguably the best win these playoffs, overcoming the Rockets in Houston without Kevin Durant. Stephen Curry absolutely lit things up in the second half, scoring all 33 points as he led his side to victory. The strong outside shooting of Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala kept Golden State competitive throughout, the two combining for 44 points and 12 made 3 pointers. Draymond Green had another excellent all-round game, playing elite defence and falling just short of a triple-double. Kevon Looney also deserves credit for his consistent excellent production off the bench, adding 14 points and 5 boards of his own.

Portland Trail Blazers

While they were arguably outplayed during the series, Portland deserve credit for a tough game 7 road win in Denver. CJ McCollum was absolutely cooking, dropping 37 points and 9 boards on 17/29 shooting. Despite shooting a measly 3/17 from the field, Dame Lillard still led his side well and fell just 2 assists shy of a triple-double. Evan Turner also surprised everyone with his cameo off the bench, adding a valuable 14 points and 7 boards.

Prediction: Under 218.5

Backing the under in Warriors home games has been profitable this season and I can see that trend continuing here. Portland should be very fatigued after a draining game 7 and I can see them struggling from deep. Similarly, Golden State will need to readjust their offence without KD, which should make it more difficult to score. I also expect a slower pace throughout the start of this series, which should lend itself to the under here on a relatively high total.

While they definitely deserve credit for making it, Portland is probably the worst Western Conference Finals team over at least the past decade. They’ve got absolutely nothing on the wing and a very minimal interior presence. Especially without KD and DeMarcus for the start of the series, I think this is a much better matchup for Golden State than Denver. I expect them to win each of their home games this series, followed by a split at the Moda Center to claim the gentleman’s sweep in 5. $3.25 looks like very solid value for this, especially when you consider Golden State is just $1.20 to win the series outright.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets just weren’t good enough in game 6 and will now return home to try and win the series in game 7. This was despite another great day at the office for Nikola Jokic, who had 29 points, 12 boards, and 8 assists. Jamal Murray also continued his stellar series, pouring in 24 points, 10 boards, and 5 assists of his own. Denver will need much more production from their bench in game 7, who combined to score just 13 points last time out.

Portland Trail Blazers

As expected, the Blazers delivered a resurgent home performance in game 6 to force a game 7. Damian Lillard was again the star of the show, leading the way with 32 points and 5 assists. CJ McCollum also added 30 of his own in 42 gritty minutes of action. Rodney Hood stepped up big time for the second time in this series, arguably winning Portland the game with 25 quick points off the bench.

Prediction: Nuggets to win $1.45

I mentioned in my preview for game 6 that this series was eerily similar to Denver’s first round series with San Antonio. Despite entering game 7 tied at 3, I think the Nuggets have been the better side for the majority of this series. They’ve got a huge advantage on the interior, as well as the defensive guards to contain Dame and CJ. While it could prove to be a relatively close affair, I’m confident that Denver can get the job done at home.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors laid an egg in game 6 and were thoroughly outplayed in the competitive portion of the game. Kawhi Leonard still played a surprisingly high 40 minutes, racking up 29 points and 12 boards in the process. Pascal Siakam is starting to look like his old self again, going for 21 points on 8/16 shooting. Toronto still needs much more from it’s surrounding talent, with Kyle Lowry the next highest scorer on just 13 points.

Philadelphia 76ers

Much like in game 3, the Sixers had one of their best games of the seasons on home soil in game 6. Jimmy Butler continues to wreak havoc, going for 25 points, 8 assists, and 6 boards in the win. Ben Simmons was also much more assertive in game 6, impressively piling up 21 points, 8 boards, and 6 assists. Joel Embiid also had a much bigger impact, going for 17 points, 12 boards, and a +40 net rating.

Prediction: Under 209.5

Game 7’s tend to be nervy affairs and I can’t see this being any exception. The two sides will likely trot out very thin rotations in this one which should lend itself to a slower style of play. Scoring hasn’t exactly been free-flowing in this series either, with the under cashing in 5 of 6 instances. While there isn’t a lot of line value in this play, I’m still anticipating a relatively low scoring affair.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets return home after a terrible missed opportunity in game 5, losing by 5 points to fall behind 3-2. This wasted a solid night at the office from James Harden, who was an efficient 10/16 from the field en route to 31 points and 8 assists. PJ Tucker also played a monstrous 45 minutes, notching an impressive double-double in the process. Houston will need more than dirty play from Chris Paul going forward, who went a costly 3/14 from the field.

Golden State Warriors

In a game that could’ve marked the end of the dynasty, Golden State fought hard to earn a well-deserved win. The story of this game was definitely the KD injury, who is out for game 6 with a calf strain. Steph Curry will absolutely need to step up in his absence, shooting just 9/23 from the field and 3/11 from 3. Fortunately for the Warriors, Klay Thompson had a resurgent game 5, going for 27 points in his 45 minutes. Draymond Green has also been impressive throughout the series, falling just 2 points shy of a triple-double in game 5.

Prediction: Rockets -6.5

Golden State’s incredibly thin rotation is getting thinner by the minute. While Cousins and Durant are definitely out for this one, ailments to Curry, Thompson, and Iguodala become increasingly crucial. The Warriors bench struggled mightily in games 3 and 4 and I can’t see too much changing here. Contrast that with a Houston side that finally has their chance to beat the team that has eliminated them 3 of the last 4 years. I expect a potential game 7 to be close, but Houston should have too much here without KD.

The series has trended to the under so far and I can definitely see that continuing here. I expect both sides to trot out very thin rotations in game 6, meaning we should see a slower pace. Injuries to Golden State should mean their offence is also much easier to contain, unless we see something extra special from Steph. Combine both of these factors with a relatively tight whistle and I’m confident in the under getting up in this clash.