Monday, September 28

Monday, September 28

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles, 5:05 am
Blue Jays $1.75

I’ll take Toronto at home here, currently listed as $1.75 favourites against Baltimore.

The Blue Jays are the only side with anything to play for here, with the Orioles eliminated from contention a while ago.

Toronto have done incredibly well to make the playoffs this season and they currently occupy the #7 seed with a 32-27 record.

A win here would give them an outside shot at the #6 seed and potentially result in an easier first-round matchup.

Baltimore are opting to play some of the kids here, with the unheralded Keegan Akin slated to get the start.

He isn’t as good an option as Taylor Roark is for Toronto and I think the veterans get the Blue Jays over the line here.

Oakland A’s vs Seattle Mariners, 5:10 am
A's $1.80

In a similar vein, I’m going to take Oakland as $1.80 home favourites against Seattle.

Oakland have been one of the premier sides in baseball this season, going 35-24 with a +38 run differential.

This is significantly better than what we’ve seen from Seattle, who are just 27-32 with a -45 differential.

The A’s currently find themselves as the #3 seed in the Conference and have the chance to climb to #2 with a win here.

Seattle aren’t playing for anything tangible after being officially eliminated from the playoffs and could be in for a letdown game here.

Marco Gonzalez has been a decent pitcher for Seattle, but Montas is as good, if not better, for Oakland.

Throw in Oakland’s better batting lineup, motivation, and home field advantage, and the $1.80 on offer looks tasty.

Sunday, September 27

St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers, 9:10 am
Cardinals $1.96

I’m looking to take St Louis here, currently instilled as narrow $1.96 home underdogs.

They’ve been the better of these two sides, currently 1.5 games and 28 runs ahead of Milwaukee in the standings.

I’d expect them to be very motivated here as a loss could really affect their chances of making the playoffs.

Even with no fans, I think home field accounts for something, especially for a team that has historically performed so well at home.

I’m also a fan of this pitching matchup for them. Adam Wainwright continues to be an ageless wonder, while Woodruff from Milwaukee is inconsistent at best.

I think they’ve got the better of these two batting lineups, which should get them over the line here.

Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds, 9:15 am
Reds $2.15

I’m angling for another motivational spot here, this time taking Cincinnati as $2.15 underdogs.

The Reds are clinging on to a playoff spot in the National League and can cement their position in the post-season with a win here.

They haven’t been quite as good as Minnesota this season, but the Twins don’t really have anything to play for.

If anything, they’re encouraged to lose here to try and fall to the #4 seed and avoid the Yankees in round 1.

The Reds are playing some of their best ball of the season right now, winning 10 of their last 12 games straight up.

They’ve got a great pitcher on the mound here in the form of Luis Castillo, who should at least be able to limit the Twins batting lineup.

Pineda has been leaky at times for Minnesota and Cincy have a chance here if they can get after him.

Saturday, September 26

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets, 8:05 am
Mets $2.35

I had success backing the Mets yesterday and plan to do so again today.

This is a fairly similar handicap to yesterday, with New York’s extra motivation a key factor here.

I think the line should be relatively even in this one, yet the Mets are very healthy $2.35 underdogs.

They’ve been the slightly better team all season, 3 games and 12 runs ahead of the Nats in the standings.

Max Scherzer will pitch for Washington here and he tends to always get a lot of love in the market.

Given they’ve got no stakes at all here, I can’t imagine they’ll risk him for too many innings.

Rick Porcello has been serviceable for the Mets and Washington’s batting lineup is nothing to be afraid of.

As a pure value play, I’ll take the team with something to play for.

Cleveland Indians vs Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:10 am
Indians

The Pirates started actually getting the job done against Chicago in their last series, so we had to temporarily stop fading them.

This Cleveland side is better than the Cubs and they’ll be highly motivated to play here.

They’ve been a significantly better side than Pittsburgh on the season, 15 games and 128 runs ahead in the standings.

They’ve also got an excellent pitching option on deck and I’d expect a good day from Carrasco against this limited Pittsburgh batting lineup.

The Pittsburgh pitching staff isn’t anything special and should have their hands full against Cleveland’s bevy of hitters.

Throw in Cleveland’s strong motivation as they chase playoff seeding and they should get the job done comfortably here.

Friday, September 25

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets, 8:10 am
Mets $1.92

The oddsmakers have priced these two sides exactly equally here and I’m inclined to back the Mets.

Washington are done and dusted in terms of the playoff race, while the Mets still have an outside chance.

They’ve been the slightly better of these two sides this season, 2 games ahead in the standings with a run differential that is 10 runs better.

I’d expect them to be the more motivated of these two sides here, while Washington could be in for a letdown game after failing to make the post-season.

The pitching matchup for them is also reasonable here, with Peterson going up against Corbin.

I think their hitters should enjoy some success today, which will ultimately prove the difference.

Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox, 8:15 am
White Sox $2

Chicago find themselves as $2 road underdogs here and I think they’re clearly the better side.

They’ve been one of the better teams in the American League all season, going 34-22 with a +69 run differential.

Cleveland are no slouches, but their still 2 games and 26 runs behind this White Sox side.

This is also a favourable pitching matchup for the White Sox, with Dallas Keuchel proving himself to be one of the best in the business.

Plesac is still a youngster for Cleveland and could struggle against this loaded lineup.

The White Sox are also in the midst of an intense seeding battle and should be very motivated to come out on top here.

Especially getting plus money, I have to think this is the right side here.

Thursday, September 24

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs, 9:05 am
Cubs

The Pirates picked up a rare win yesterday, but I’m keen to fade them again here.

Not only are the Cubs the considerably better side, they’ve also got a clear motivational edge here.

Pittsburgh are firmly out of playoff contention at 16-39 and aren’t really invested in finishing out the season.

Compare that to a Chicago side that is currently 4th in the National League and battling intently for playoff seeding.

Despite a slip up yesterday, the Cubs are still winning this series and have been in good recent form.

Their pitching staff should have a field day against an anaemic Pittsburgh offence and I’d expect their batters to score enough runs to get the win.

Kansas City Royals vs St Louis Cardinals, 10:10 am
Cardinals $1.77

Another spot where I’m going for the same pick as yesterday, taking St Louis as $1.77 road favourites.

They won handily in a very similar spot yesterday and I think the same matchup advantages exist today.

First things first, there’s a clear motivation discrepancy between these two sides.

Kansas City are all but eliminated from playoff contention, while St Louis are furiously fighting for a spot in the National League.

They are 2 games up on the Giants for a playoff spot and I think they’ll be very motivated to extend that lead.

I also like the pitching matchup for them today and would expect a better outing from Carlos Martinez.

Their strong batting lineup should be able to get after Danny Duffy of KC here, which will likely prove the difference.

Wednesday, September 23

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs, 9:05 am
Cubs

I’m going to take Chicago again here, after they opened this series with a solid 5-0 win last time out.

The line isn’t up at the time of writing, but I’d expect something similar to the $1.64 on offer yesterday.

The Cubs are sitting pretty in the 3rd seed in the National League and will need a win here to hold off Atlanta in 4th.

Pittsburgh seemingly gave up on the season a long time ago, winning just one of their last 10 games.

They are a miserable 15-39 on the season, and their -93 run differential is comfortably worst in the league.

As long as Chicago avoid complacency, they should win this one comfortably.

Kansas City Royals vs St Louis Cardinals, 10:10 am
Cardinals $1.88

I’m opting for St Louis here, currently instilled as narrow $1.88 road favourites at Kansas City.

I think this is a clear motivation mismatch, with the Royals all but eliminated from playoff contention.

St Louis are very much in the mix in the National League, only holding on to their current playoff spot by half a game.

As such, I think we’ll see them go all out in this one, while Kansas City will likely opt for some rotation.

This is also a reasonable pitching matchup for St Louis, with Austin Gomber having looked solid of late.

The Royals will be opting for rookie Brady Singer, who I can see struggling against a solid St Louis batting lineup.

I see this price only going down, so I’d get in on St Louis now if you also like this side.

Tuesday, September 22

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies, 9:10 am
Phillies

I’m taking Philadelphia on the road here, mainly because of the motivation mismatch.

Philly are right on the edge of the playoff picture in the National League, currently in 7th place at 27-26.

Washington have been all but eliminated from playoff contention, now 3rd last in the conference at 20-32.

Not only are Philly 6.5 games ahead in the standings, they also have a run differential that is better by 23 runs across the season.

I also like the pitching matchup for them here, with Zack Wheeler having been much better than Sanchez of late.

Overall, I’ll take the more talented team with a ton of motivation against a team that has likely checked out.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs, 9:10 am
Cubs

There is no line up at the time of writing, but I couldn’t miss another opportunity to fade the Pittsburgh Pirates.

I’d expect Chicago to be instilled as around $1.60 favourites and would recommend this play until $1.50.

Pittsburgh continue to be the worst team in the conference, dead last at 15-38 with a -88 run differential.

The Cubs are in the middle of a very impressive campaign, sitting in 3rd place in the National League at 31-22.

Their +21 run differential isn’t outstanding, but it’s solid enough and is comfortably better than their opponents here.

They’ll also be highly motivated in this one to at least maintain their playoff seeding, with Atlanta right on their tail.

 

Monday, September 21

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees, 3:10 am
Yankees $1.60

I’m going to take the Yankees to complete their series sweep of the Red Sox here.

The Yankees have been in excellent form of late, winning each of their last 9 games as they gear up for the playoffs.

They’ve got a great matchup here against a Red Sox side that is all but eliminated from playoff contention.

The Yankees have put up some good numbers overall this season, going 31-21 through 52 games and putting up a +63 run difference.

This has them 12.5 games above Boston in the standings with a run difference that is 144 runs better.

I think the starting pitching battle is a bit of a wash here, with both sides starting relatively inexperienced youngsters.

The Yankees better batting lineup, bullpen, and motivation should prove the difference here.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals, 6:05 am
Cardinals $1.60

Fading Pittsburgh has gone off almost without a hitch of late and the plan is to continue doing so here.

This series has actually been rather competitive so far, but St Louis have still won 3 of the 4 games.

Not only do they have 10 more wins than Pittsburgh this season, they’ve also got a run differential that is better by 97 runs.

I think they’re comfortably the better of these two sides and need this win to help consolidate their playoff position.

Jack Flaherty is one of their better starting pitcher options and should be able to bounce back from a loss to this same side in his last start.

I’m not to confident in Joe Musgrove or the Pirates bullpen, who could be in for a big hitting day from St Louis here.

Sunday, September 20

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays, 8:05 am
Blue Jays $1.74

I’ll take Toronto on the road here, currently listed as $1.74 favourites over the Phillies.

The Blue Jays have had a reasonable season so far and look to be in with a good shot at the playoffs.

A good series here will all but confirm their spot in the playoffs, which is why I’d expect strong motivation levels here.

These two sides have been relatively even on the season, both accumulating 26-25 records so far.

Where Toronto has a major edge here is in the pitching matchup.

They’ve got one of the league’s best options in Ryu, going up against the struggling Velasquez.

If their hitting lineup can get after Velasquez, I trust Ryu to keep it tight and get them the win.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals, 9:10 am
Cardinals $1.56

Fading the Pirates worked a treat again yesterday, as they lost both matches in their double header to St Louis.

We may be paying a slight premium to bet against them, but I’m not sure the bookies have fully caught up yet.

St Louis should be very motivated here, right on the edge of the playoff race at 9th in the National League.

Should they string a few good results together here, they’ve got a great chance at getting into that elusive top 8 and playing some post-season ball.

They’ve been significantly better than Pittsburgh over the season, 9.5 games and 95 runs ahead in the standings.

Kwang-hyun Kim has pitched very well of late and shouldn’t have much trouble against an awful Pittsburgh batting lineup.

They’ve got the offensive talent to get after Mitch Keller here, which should ultimately prove decisive.

 

Saturday, September 19

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox, 9:10 am
White Sox $1.92

A lot of teams are playing twice today, making the handicaps that little bit more difficult.

I see some value in Chicago here, at essentially even money on the road against Cincy.

The White Sox have been the best side in the American League this season, sitting atop the Conference with a 33-17 record.

They’ve got a very impressive run differential of +80, which is significantly better than anyone else in the conference.

It’s not that Cincinnati are a bad team, but I view them as more of a middle-of-the-road side.

They’re just 25-26 in the middle of the National League, with a -15 run difference.

This is after they were able to beat up on a lowly Pittsburgh side, which looks to have inflated their numbers.

Overall, I think Chicago has the much better batting lineup and this is a relatively even pitching matchup.

They should be around $1.75 here, so I’ll take the extra line value on offer.

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 10:10 am
Astros $1.60

Arizona have had a very disappointing 2020 season and appear to be all but eliminated from the playoffs.

Houston have underwhelmed this season, but they’re still right in the mix and should get the job done here.

Their record is 6.5 games better than the Diamondbacks and they also have a better run difference by 57 runs, which is indicative of the gulf in quality.

I think the pitching matchup is also favourable for them here, with ace Zack Greinke taking on his former side.

Zac Gallen has underwhelmed for Arizona this season and the strong Houston batting lineup should prove too much for him.

A sweep in this series would give the Astros a great chance to make the playoffs in this expanded post-season and I think they start on the right note here.