Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, September 17

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, September 17

Ryan Cook
Tuesday’s Home Run Bets 

Max Muncy @ Atlanta Braves  

  • Muncy has recorded 5 hits in 19 plate appearances against Max Fried, including 2 HR and a triple.  

Ryan McMahon vs Arizona Diamondbacks  

  • McMahon has recorded 6 hits in 13 plate appearances against D-Back starter Merrill Kelly, including 2 HR and a double. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves, 9:20am  

Siding with the Braves in this one as they try and maintain their spot in the Wild Card chase over the next two weeks.  

Atlanta has won only five of its last 10 games, but the Braves do boast some likable numbers – currently sitting third-last in strikeout rate over the last seven days.  

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is making his second start after missing a good chunk of time to injury midseason, and although he threw four scoreless innings against the Cubs on return last week, this is a much different Braves lineup loaded with good, clutch hitters.  

  • Tip: Back the Braves to Win @ $1.90 
  • Player Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over Earned Runs Allowed 
Bet now: Dodgers v Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals, 9:40am  

Pittsburgh’s rookie sensation Paul Skenes is back on the mound for his 21st start on Tuesday.  

The 22-year-old is coming off a solid one-run outing against the Marlins last week, and now meets a Cardinals team that has been all but mathematically eliminated from the Wild Card race in the National League.  

The Redbirds rank second-last in the league in runs scored over the last seven days, but even if St Louis was scoring runs, it might not matter much against Skenes’ arm.  

This year’s All-Star starter has thrown two solid outings against the Cards, holding them scoreless in May, and surrendering just two runs in 8.1 innings of work in July.  

Based on all the numbers I’ve just thrown at you, I like Skenes to dominate this matchup and hold the Cardinals to a low score.  

  • Tip: Cardinals Under 3.5 Runs 
  • Player Pick: Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts  
Bet now: Pirates v Cardinals

Daily MLB Tips – Saturday, September 14

Ryan Cook
Saturday Home Run Bets

Pete Alonso @ Philadelphia Phillies  

  • Alonso has taken Phillies starter Aaron Nola deep on five occasions. 

Ezequiel Tovar vs Chicago Cubs 

  • Tovar has recorded 2 hits and 4 at-bats against Cubs starter Javier Assad, including a double registering an average exit velocity of 94.6 MPH.  

Kevin Newman vs Milwaukee Brewers  

  • Newman has taken Freddy Peralta deep in the past and also recorded a pair of doubles over the course of 15 plate appearances. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 8:40am  

This is a big series starting Saturday between two NL East rivals.  

The Mets are the hottest team in the league right now, and although they won’t catch the Phils atop the division, they are in the driver’s seat to snag a Wild Card spot and contend.  

Veteran lefty Jose Quintana is a big reason for New York’s recent turnaround, particularly over the last three weeks where he’s allowed just one earned run in as many starts.  

The 35-year-old blanked the Reds last week across six innings, similar to his start three weeks ago against the Padres in San Diego.  

Philly is one of the best teams in the league against southpaws, but Quintana has kept them in check allowing a combined five earned runs across two starts this season.  

He’s yet to have a Phillies hitter take him deep, so on the back of his recent success, I’m backing Quintana’s arm to do the talking in a Mets win. 

  • Tip: Back the Mets to Win @ $2.35 
  • Player Pick: Jose Quintana Under Strikeout Total 
Bet now: Mets vs Phillies
Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox, 9:40am

Garrett Crochet takes the rubber for his 30th start of the season hoping to bounce back from a rough outing against the Red Sox last week.

Chicago’s left-hander gave up four earned runs in just two frames, far and away his worst start since giving up seven runs to the Cubs close to a month ago.  

The A’s have been better than most thought they would be heading into the season, but with only five wins from their last 10 games, alongside a the fact they rank 26th in the league against left-handed pitching, this looks like one of the rare spots where you can bet the White Sox with confidence.  

  • Tip: Back the White Sox to Win @ $2.05 
  • Player Pick: Garrett Crochet Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: A's v White Sox
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 12:10pm 

Jacob deGrom is slated to make his first start of the season for the Rangers on Saturday after missing most of the year due to Tommy John

The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner has looked sharp in four rehab starts, allowing just runs across 10 2/3rd innings to go with 15 strikeouts and only three hits allowed.  

As I wrote yesterday, Seattle has been scoring runs for fun over the last week though, currently ranked Top 5in the category alongside a strikeout percentage that ranks in the bottom half of the league.  

A pitcher of deGrom’s caliber could easily come out and dominate, but I’m willing to bet on some rust from the 36-year-old on the road.  

  • Tip: Back the Mariners to Win @ $1.95 
  • Player Pick: Jacob deGrom Under Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Rangers v Mariners

Daily MLB Tips – Friday, September 13

Ryan Cook
Friday’s Home Run Bets

Rob Refsnyder @ New York Yankees  

  • Refsnyder has ripped three doubles against Yankees righty Nestor Cortes in just 16 plate appearances.  

Spencer Steer @ St Louis Cardinals  

  • Steer has gone yard twice against Reds veteran Spencer Steer. His hardest hit ball registered a 99.4 MPH average exit velocity off the bat. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros, 4:10am  

There hasn’t been a better pitcher over the last 30 days, at least among qualified starters, than Astros lefty, Framber Valdez.  

The two-time All-Star has been dealing since mid-August, posting a 1.11 ERA across five starts with zero home runs allowed and only nine walks.  

Most importantly, Valdez has struck out exactly 40 hitters during that time frame, which doesn’t bode well for an A’s team that ranks 26th in runs scored against southpaws, and 11th in strikout percentage.  

  • Tip: A’s Under 2.5 Runs  
  • Player Pick: Framber Valdez Over 7.5 Strikeouts  
Bet now: A's v Astros
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 11:40am  

Kumar Rocker makes his long-awaited MLB debut on Friday after waiting nearly two years to take the mound in The Show.  

The former first round draft pick has had a delayed start to his career due to injury, opting for Tommy John surgery last year that ruled him out for the entirety of the season.  

At his best, the 24-year-old boasts an electric fastball that he can throw over 100 MPH, which has been on full display at Triple A recently where he’s posted a 1.80 ERA across two starts to go with 18 strikeouts and just one walk.  

Promotion to the Big Leagues poses an entirely different set of challenges, though, especially against a Mariners side that ranks Top 5 in runs to go with 9 HR over the last seven days.  

  • Tip: Mariners Over the Run Total  
  • Player Pick: Kumar Rocker Under Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Rangers v Mariners

Daily MLB Tips – Thursday, September 12

Ryan Cook
Thursday’s Home Run Bets  

George Springer vs New York Mets  

  • Springer has recorded a pair of doubles and a HR against Mets starter Sean Manaea.  

Rafael Devers vs Baltimore Orioles 

  • Devers has recorded 2 HR against Orioles starter Dean Kremer.
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees, 9:05am  

Cole Ragans has been kind to us over the last month, so there’s really no reason to hop off his strikeout total right now.  

The Royals have stormed the Bronx to take two games away from the Yankees, which comes as no surprise given the Yankees’ struggles at the plate and on the scoreboard.  

Ragans is a lefty, so it’s worth noting the Bronx Bombers rank middle of the league in runs scored against southpaws. 

With the Royals swinging some hot bats on their way to the postseason, betting on Rangans’ arm feels like a safe enough play. 

  • Tip: Yankees Under 4.5 Runs 
  • Player Pick: Cole Ragans Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Royals v Yankees

Daily MLB Tips – Wednesday, September 11

Ryan Cook
Wednesday’s Home Run Bets  

Marcell Ozuna @ Washington Nationals  

  • Ozuna has recorded 5 HR against left-handed pitching to go with 1 HR and six hits off Nats southpaw Mackenzie Gore.  

Mitch Haniger vs San Diego Padres 

  • Haniger has recorded 1 HR in eight plate appearances against Padres righty Yu Darvish. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins, 9:40am  

Pablo Lopez’s strikeout total is probably the no-brainer play of the day.  

The sixth-year righty has been on a tear over the last four weeks, striking out 29 batters across his last five starts to go with a solid 1.98 ERA.  

The Angels rank 19th in runs scored over the last seventh days, and with a poor 30-42 record away from home this year, they look likely to struggle.

  • Player Pick: Pablo Lopez Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Angels v Twins
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros, 10:10am  

The A’s and ‘Stros return from a day off, both sporting winning records in this scenario.  

Oakland isn’t a team I’d typically bet on outright, but I feel good about their chances with righty Osvaldo Bido taking the rubber.  

The 29-year-old has been senastional over the last month, posting a tidy 2.08 ERA over his last five starts with only eight walks allowed.  

He’s not a high-strikeout pitcher, but after putting away six batters in his last start against Houston a couple of months ago, I think his K total is worth a dabble.  

  • Tip: Back the A’s to Win @ $2.55 
  • Player Pick: Osvaldo Bido Over 3.5 Strikeouts  
Bet now: A's v Astros
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 12:10pm 

The Cubs cost us yesterday winning a 10-4 blowout in Game 1 against the Dodgers, and I think they can keep that momentum rolling with their ace Shota Imanaga on the mound for Game 2.  

The Japanese sensation was pulled after pitching seven no-hit innings against the Pirates last week, his eighth scoreless start of the season.  

Despite Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani hitting home runs every other day, the Dodgers have been struggling a little at the plate over the last seven days, striking out close to 25% of the time – the ninth highest rate in the league.  

Imanaga hurled four scoreless frames to go with 3 K’s in just his second big league start earlier in the year, so based on everything we’ve seen lately, I think he can put up some nice numbers again.  

  • Tip: Back the Cubs to Win @ $2.45 
  • Player Pick: Shota Imanaga Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Cubs v Dodgers

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, September 10

Ryan Cook
Tuesday’s Home Run Bets  

Shohei Ohtani vs Chicago Cubs  

  • Ohtani has recorded two hits, including a double and a HR, in three plate appearances against Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks.  

Salvador Perez @ New York Yankees  

  • Perez has recorded 2 HR and a double off Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 8:30am  

Somewhat of a no-brainer here to back Paul Skenes against the struggling Marlins.  

After giving up two earned runs the week prior, Pittsburgh’s All-Star righty got some revenge against the Cubs last week when he posted five shutout innings, allowing just four hits and as many walks.  

This Marlins lineup is anywhere close to what the Cubs bring in terms of power, evident in the fact they rank Top 5 in strikeout rate over the last seven days.  

This is Skenes’ first look at the Marlins, but if he gets some much-needed run support, I’m confident he’ll rack up the K’s. 

  • Tip: Paul Skenes 8+ Strikeouts (Alternate Line) @ $2.30 
Bet now: Marlins vs Pirates
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 12:10pm 

The Cubs salvaged a series sweep at the hands of the Yankees yesterday with a much-needed win, but this is still a difficult travel spot flying from Chicago to Los Angeles on short rest.  

To make matters worse, Kyle Hendricks takes the mound sporting a 6.60 ERA, which doesn’t read much better than his overall career numbers at Dodger Stadium (sub 7.00 ERA across three starts).  

With the Dodgers swinging hot bats and posting a .317 on-base percentage over the last seven days, it’s hard to go against the home side to kick off this series.  

  • Tip: Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs 
Bet now: Cubs vs Dodgers

Daily MLB Tips – Friday, September 6

Ryan Cook
Friday’s Home Run Bets  

Mike Yastremzki vs Arizona Diamondbacks 

  • Yastremzki has recorded 8 hits and 3 HR against Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly. 

Sean Murphy vs Colorado Rockies  

  • Murphy recorded a double against Rockies starter Austin Gomber when they met last year, a scorching extra-base hit that registered an exit velocity of 105.9 MPH off the bat.  
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, 5:45am 

Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Blake Snell (SF) 

Backing the Snakes against left-handed pitching has typically been a safe play throughout the season.  

Snell is mounting a Cy Young-like case during the second half of the season, allowing no more than three earned runs since returning from the IL across 10 starts, but the Diamondbacks currently lead the league in runs scored against southpaws, whilst also sitting Top 5 in home runs.  

Snell hasn’t faced Arizona at all this year, and if you haven’t already seen, the Answerbacks have been one of the hottest team in baseball over the last month.  

  • Tip: Back the Diamondbacks to Win @ $2.26/Diamondbacks Over 3.5 Runs  
Bet now: Diamondbacks vs Giants
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves, 9:20am  

Austin Gomber (COL) vs Reynaldo Lopez (ATL)  

This one has all the makings of a low-scoring game.  

The Braves and Rockies both rank bottom five in the league in runs scored over the last seven days, while up the other end, the two clubs rank Top 10 in strikeout rate during the same time frame.  

Austin Gomber hasn’t faced Atlanta since last season, but he should feel confident knowing the Braves hold one of the worst strikeout rates vs left-handed pitching.  

If you’re brave, take the Rockies for a win, but the Under looks the safest play.  

  • Tip: Under 8.5 Runs @ $1.82 

 

Bet now: Rockies vs Braves

Daily MLB Tips – Thursday, September 5

Ryan Cook
Thursday's Home Run Bets

Giancarlo Stanton @ Texas Rangers  

  • Stanton has hit 4 HR against Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi across 36 plate appearances.  

Aaron Judge @ Texas Rangers  

  • Judge has taken Eovaldi deep twice in 32 plate appearances.  
Bet now: Home Run Bets
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 9:30am  

The Brewers are surprising outsiders here at home against the Red Birds.  

Sonny Gray is on the mount for St Louis, and I doubt he’ll like the sight of the Brew Crew after giving up six earned runs at Miller Park when these two sides last met back in May.  

Stats-wise, the Brewers have scored the second-most runs only to the Cubs over the last seven days, so they should be able to offer plenty of scoreboard support for Colin Rea.  

  • Tip: Back the Brewers to Win @ $2.05
  • Player Pick: Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run
Bet now: Cardinals vs Brewers
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers, 10:05am 

There’s some good value on offer for the Yankees this Thursday with Marcus Stroman on the mound.  

The veteran righty has allowed three runs or less in each of his last four starts, giving up only a pair against the Cardinals last week across seven strong frames.  

Rangers starter Nate Eovaldi is coming off a scoreless outing against the White Sox, but he did struggle against this Yankee lineup only a few weeks ago, surrendering three earned runs in as many innings.  

Ranked 20th in runs scored over the last seven days, I’m happy to have a play on a Yankees win and a low-scoring Rangers outing.  

  • Tip: Back the Yankees to Win @ $1.88, Rangers Under 4.5 Runs  
Bet now: Yankees vs Rangers

Daily MLB Tips – Wednesday, September 4

Ryan Cook
Wednesday’s Home Run Bets  

Max Muncy @ Los Angeles Angels  

  • Muncy has recorded 3 hits and 1 HR in 7 plate appearances against Angels starter Reid Detmers.  

Jared Triolo @ Chicago Cubs  

  • Triolo has recorded a double and a HR against Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks this season. 

Nick Castellanos @ Toronto Blue Jays 

  • Castellanos has recorded four extra-base hits and a home run in 29 plate appearances against Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt.  
Bet now: Wednesday's Home Run Bets
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 9:40am  

The Royals are looking to snap a six-game losing skid against division rivals Cleveland on Wednesday.  

This is a tough pitching matchup to predict with Brady Singer and Tanner Bibee both sporting similar ERAs, but I give the edge to Cleveland despite Bibee’s rough five-run outing against the Guardians only a week ago. 

It’s easy to forget, but Bibee got off to a hot start to begin the month of August, but he quickly cooled off in two average outings against Texas and Kansas City.  

On the road, his numbers have been significantly better, however.  

In 13 starts, he’s compiled a tidy ERA around 2.81, while his number at Progressive Field is almost double.  

  • Tip: Back the Guardians to Win @ $1.78 
  • Player Pick: Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 Strikeouts 
Bet now: Guardians vs Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, 9:40am  

The Cubs have been white hot over the last fortnight, but they dropped a game they’d probably like to have back last night after leading by a comfortable three runs heading into the eighth.  

Chicago’s bullpen gave away a three-run homer to surrender the lead, and I think they could be vulnerable again on Wednesday with scheduled starter Justin Steele scratched overnight due to elbow soreness. 

Veteran righty Kyle Hendricks is set to take over, a worrying sign for Cubs fans after giving up a combined 14 earned runs in three starts against the Buccos this season.  

With All-Star Paul Skenes also on the mound, it’s no surprise to find Pittsburgh slightly favoured in betting. 

  • Tip: Back the Pirates to Win @ $1.75 
  • Player Pick: Bryan Reynolds 2+ Hits 
Bet now: Pirates vs Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, 11:40am 

Big watch on this battle of LA with Shohei Ohtani playing his first game at Angel Stadium since joining the Dodgers during the offseason.  

With Reid Detmers and Walkher Buehler both sporting ERA’s around the 6.00 mark, the pitching matchup suggests we could be in for some runs.  

Having surpassed the 40/40 mark, the Ohtani factor is worth betting on given his knack for answering in a big moment and playing into the narrative.  

With the Angels also sporting a mid 8-8 record following a day off, you can probably multi a Dodgers win with any of the below.  

  • Tip: Over 9.5 Runs  
  • Player Pick: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run, Shohei Ohtani 2+ Hits  
Bet now: Dodgers vs Angels

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, September 3

Ryan Cook
Tuesday's Home Run Bets

Eugenio Suarez vs Los Angeles Dodgers  

  • Suarez has hit 3 HR vs Jack Flaherty.  

Teoscar Hernandez vs Arizona Diamondbacks  

  • Hernandez has recorded 8 hits and 3 HR in 22 plate appearances vs Eduardo Rodriguez. 
Bet now: Tuesday Home Run Bets
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, 5:05am 

Nice spot here to bet on Corbin Burnes’ strikeout total. 

Baltimore’s big offseason acquisition bounced back from a rough outing against the Astros two weeks ago to strike out four across five innings of work against the Dodgers last week.  

The White Sox, on the other hand, are on track to set a new franchise record for the most losses, compounded even further by the fact they are striking out at the fourth-highest rate in the Majors over the last week.  

  • Tip: White Sox Under 2.5 Runs 
  • Player Pick: Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts 
Bet now: White Sox vs Orioles
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers, 10:05am  

Gerrit Cole is making his 13th start for the Yankees on Tuesday against a Rangers team looking to claim their third straight win.  

Despite their winning streak, runs have proven hard to come by for Texas over the last seven days, while they also meet Cole at the wrong time with the reigning AL Cy Young award winner sporting one of the lowest ERA’s through the month of August.  

The Rangers know the veteran righty well after managing just one earned run against him earlier last month whilst striking out on 10 occasions.  

With his fastball velo ticking up, I’m siding with the Bronx Bombers here and another big day from Cole on the rubber.  

  • Tip: Rangers Under 3.5 Runs 
  • Player Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts 
Bet now: Yankees vs Rangers