I’m opting for a total play here in game 4, taking this game to go over 7.5 runs.

This is in large part due to the pitching options for both sides, which aren’t as strong as they usually are.

The Dodgers are starting reliever Julio Urias in this one and will likely go with a committee approach for the 9 innings.

This just hasn’t worked well in the playoffs this season and I think it bodes well for Tampa’s offense here.

On the flipside, Ryan Yarbrough will start for Tampa and he just hasn’t been at the level of most of his peers this season.

He’ll generally give you ~5 steady innings, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in him here against this Dodgers side.

Moreover, the fact that we had a relatively low-scoring game 3 adds a little bit of line value, which further benefits us here.

Ultimately, I’m not too confident in the pitching today and this ballpark is definitely conducive to runs being scored.

At a total of 7.5, I’ll take the same over we played in game 2, hopefully with the same end result.

Fresh off a loss in game 2, I’m backing the Dodgers to turn things around and win here in game 3.

Game 2 was always likely to be a struggle, starting Gonsolin and relying on the bullpen to essentially get the job done.

While it hurt them there, it helps them in game 3 as ace Walker Buehler is now fit and firing.

Tampa are a team without any clear weaknesses, but their hitting just hasn’t reached the heights of the regular season.

Some of their top-end batters have been very inconsistent of late and could really struggle against Walker’s delivery.

On the flipside, the ageing Charlie Morton just hasn’t been as good for Tampa Bay of late.

He can generally only go around 5 innings, which will also put a ton of pressure on the bullpen.

Now that they’re becoming more and more accustomed to the Tampa bullpen, I think this could be a game where we see the Dodgers hitters go off.

They could desperately use a win here and I think that a complete team performance helps them get one.

I think the line is relatively well set here, so I’ll instead opt for a total play, going over 7.5 runs.

This is largely because of projected Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin, who doesn’t inspire a huge amount of confidence.

He hasn’t started a game since September, where he looked shaky against a fairly anaemic Angels side.

Tampa had one of the best offenses in the majors this season and could definitely give him trouble here.

On the flipside, we’ve got Blake Snell going up against the Dodgers all-star lineup.

Snell is certainly a competent pitcher, but the Dodgers lineup tends to get their share against anybody.

I think Gonsolin will go for a few runs early here, meaning they’ll be more likely to be aggressive and go for the higher-variance play.

They showed yesterday that they can attack this Tampa bullpen and I’d expect more of the same here.

Set relatively low at 7.5 runs, I’ll take the value on the over.

I’m going for the line value play here, taking Tampa as $2.50 underdogs in game 1.

I think the Dodgers are overvalued in this spot, mainly due to Clayton Kershaw not being 100%.

Kershaw was one of the best pitchers in the regular season, but he has suffered a few recent injuries and his form has dipped noticeably in the playoffs.

He really struggled in the NLCS and I can see this Tampa batting lineup getting after him here.

On the flipside, I’ve been really impressed with what I’ve seen from Tyler Glasnow.

He was calm and composed in his two ALCS outings and appears to be in career-best form.

I think he matches up reasonably well with this Dodgers lineup and should put in a credible performance here.

If their hitters can match that on the offensive end, they’ve got a real chance of sneaking an upset.

At $2.50, the value is too good to ignore here.

While no consensus line is out for this one, early indications are that the Dodgers will be ~ $1.70 favourites.

I plan to back the Dodgers to win here and finally grab that elusive world series with this group.

All the momentum is in their favour, having convincingly won 3 of the last 4 games.

I love this matchup for their bats, going up against inexperienced pitcher Ian Anderson.

This game will be an absolute pressure cooker and I can see Anderson faltering early against a star-studded lineup.

The flipside is that we’re not quite sure who the Dodgers starter will be yet, which is why the line hasn’t been released.

From where I stand, they’ve got a handful of solid veteran pitchers and a capable bullpen that can step in if things go awry.

I think that will be enough to contain an Atlanta lineup that is decent, but isn’t quite star-studded.

This team has a ton of pressure on them and I expect them to deliver here in a clutch spot.

I’m opting for somewhat of a rare MLB multi today, taking both the Dodgers and Rays at generous $3.05 odds.

I think both of these sides are in favourable situations here and will come out absolutely desperate for a win.

The Dodgers appeared to get back on track yesterday, in a game that was probably Atlanta’s best chance of closing out the series.

LA’s strong batting lineup began to find some form and I’d expect them to be dangerous the rest of the way.

Walker Buehler has probably been their best pitcher this season and I think his return gives them a much-needed edge.

Moving on to Tampa Bay, who have somehow lost the last 3 games to find themselves 3-3.

Their stats throughout the season and even this series have been much better than Houston’s, yet they can’t seem to put them away.

They’ve struggled from a hitting perspective in the last few games, something which I’d expect to change here.

Lance McCullers will start at pitcher for Houston and I’d expect a much better showing from the Tampa bats against him.

I also like the matchup for Charlie Morton against Houston’s bats, which should ultimately prove decisive here.

With no odds up for the LA game, I’ll stick with Tampa as my lone play for today.

They’ve let up slightly over the last two games, but they realize the urgency here and I’d expect them to play much better.

Given Houston’s below .500 record during the regular season, you can make the fairly strong case that they’re lucky to be here.

Tampa, on the other hand, were the best side in the American League throughout the regular season and dominated the first 3 games of this series.

I think the pitching matchup favours them here, with former Cy Young award winner Blake Snell taking the mound here.

He has performed much better than counterpart Frambler Valdez this season, which could prove crucial.

Ultimately, I think Tampa’s hitters really get after the Houston pitching staff in this one, with their own pitchers doing enough to hold on.

At $1.72, I think this is a +EV bet on the Rays closing out this series.

I’m going to back the Dodgers to level up the series at 2 games apiece here.

They got well and truly back on track last time out, scoring a whopping 11 runs in the first inning to win 15-3.

Ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw is set to start for this one, which would provide a huge boost for his teammates.

Their start to the series obviously hasn’t been great, but there is considerable regular season evidence to suggest they’re the much better side.

Not only did the Dodgers win 8 more games than Atlanta this season, their run difference is also 76 runs better.

Bryse Wilson is set to pitch for Atlanta here and I think he’s a noticeable step down from their top options.

The Dodgers showed they can get after Atlanta’s pitching yesterday and I’m ultimately expecting more of the same here.

They also figure to be highly motivated to win again as a 3-1 deficit would leave them as major underdogs.

With the talent edge, matchup advantages, and unquestioned motivation, I like the Dodgers to level things up.

They entered this series as the overwhelming title favourites, but the Dodgers find themselves in a 2-0 hole in the NLCS.

I think the late injury to Kershaw yesterday really hurt them both on and off the field and let to a subpar pitching performance.

They should be able to get back on track here, with projected starter Julio Urias having shown some strong recent form.

Kyle Wright just hasn’t been as consistent for Atlanta, recording an ERA over 5 throughout the regular season.

He is coming up against an excellent Dodgers batting lineup, one which has their back against the wall.

I think they get after Wright here, while their pitching does enough to get the job done.

This series appears to be all but over, with Tampa winning each of the first 3 matches relatively comfortably.

I’m going to opt for the underdog here, taking Houston at $2.20 to keep their season alive.

Besides the obvious motivational edge, the return of pitcher Zack Greinke should do wonders here.

Greinke is still one of the best pitchers in the league and is probably best equipped to limit this strong Rays batting lineup.

On the flipside, Tyler Glasnow is set to start at pitcher for the Rays.

He’s also a top-level pitcher, but he struggled mightily against the Yankees and faces a good Houston lineup here.

Houston absolutely haven’t fired offensively in this series, but you’d have to say they’re due with the likes of Springer, Altuve, Brantley, and Bregman.

This is a side that won’t go down without a fight and I’ll take them as underdogs here.

I’m going to take the Dodgers to rebound from their game 1 loss, currently paying $1.60 to win here.

Game 1 was much closer than the final scoreline would suggest and it was only a last-inning flurry that got Atlanta over the line.

Ace Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound here and I’d expect him to build off his strong recent form.

Ian Anderson hasn’t been as consistent for Atlanta and should struggle against a very good Dodgers batting lineup.

The Dodgers were much better than Atlanta throughout the season, winning 8 more games and securing a much better run differential.

Having lost game 1, I have to think they’ll also be the more motivated team here.

If they leave it all out on the field, I’d expect them to level the series.

I’ve had success backing Tampa in the first two games and I see no reason to deviate from that here.

Despite two convincing wins to start out, the odds have actually shifted in their favour, with both sides equally priced at $1.92.

I think they’ve got the edge in the pitching matchup here, with Ryan Yarbrough going up against the inexperienced Urquidy.

This matchup should prove crucial here as I’d expect Tampa’s hitters to really get after Urquidy.

Despite their form in recent seasons, Houston just hasn’t been all that good in 2019.

A negative win/loss record and neutral run differential suggest that they’re lucky to even get in the playoffs.

Compare this to a Tampa side that was comfortably best in the American League this season and it’s a clear mismatch.

As long as Tampa can avoid complacency, I think they’re great value here at even money.