Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, April 15

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, April 15

Tuesday’s Home Run Bets

Alex Bregman vs Tampa Bay Rays 

  • Bregman is one of two Red Sox hitters to send one deep against Rays starter Shane Baz, a hit that registered a whopping 100.5 MPH off the bat.  

Yordan Alvarez vs St Louis Cardinals 

  • Alvarez has punished Cardinals righty Sonny Gray in the past, registering three doubles in eight at-bats.
Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (8:40am)
Tip: Paul Skenes Over Strikeout Total

Brad Lord (WAS) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)  

Skenes takes the mound for his fourth start sporting a 3.44 ERA after being hit hard by the Cardinals last week for five earned runs across six frames. 

On the plus side, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year winner is still racking up K’s, striking out seven last week against St Louis to take his total to 20 on the season. 

Backing the Pirates outright in this spot is risky given their lack of run support, but against a Nats side that ranks 10th in strikeout percentage, you can feel pretty good about backing the over on Skenes’ strikeout total. 

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies (8:45am) 
Tip: Giants to Win @ $2.00 

Landen Roupp (SF) vs Taijuan Walker (PHI) 

The Giants have been one of the surprise standouts to start the year, sitting 11-4 and second in the crowded NL West behind the Padres. 

San Francisco’s second-year righty Landed Roupp has contributed enormously to the rotation, allowing only four earned runs across two starts to go with 12 K’s and only four walks.  

Taijuan Walker’s resurgence in Philly has been a story in its own right, but so far, he’s only faced two struggling lineups in Colorado and Atlanta.  

With the Giants also boasting one of the best bullpens in the league, the price here on the Giants is great value. 

Detroit Tigers @ Milwaukee Brewers (9:40am)
Tip: Brewers to Win @ $2.35

Tarik Skubal (DET) vs Tyler Alexander (MIL) 

Not a bad price here for the Brewers, although it had to be expected with Tigers ace Tarik Skubal taking the mound. 

Detroit’s reigning AL Cy Young Award winner blanked the Yankees last week across six innings, but his previous two starts on the road were slightly concerning, allowing a combined seven earned runs in Los Angeles and Seattle. 

This Brewers team looks just as good as it did a year ago, currently ranked third in runs scored and 12th in homers, so their bats might be able to make life difficult for Skubal on the road. 

Daily MLB Tips – Saturday, April 12

Saturday’s Home Run Bets

Bobby Witt Jr @ Cleveland Guardians 

  • Witt’s off to a slow start at the plate this year, but he has registered four hits, including a home run, in 15 at-bats against Kris Bubic. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr @ Baltimore Orioles 

  • Vladdy is yet to go deep this year, but he looks a nice bet at Camden Yards, where he’s homered nine times in his career, including twice last season. 
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (8:10am) 
Tip: Royals to Win @ $2.20 

Kris Bubic (KC) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE) 

The Royals are off to a slow start, but this is still a great price for the visitors going up against Tanner Bibee, who was just rocked for seven runs against the Angels last week.  

Kris Bubic, meanwhile, owns a sparkling 0.00 ERA through two starts after blanking the Brewers two weeks ago and allowing only one run against the Orioles last week.   

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (9:05am)  
Tip: Blue Jays to Win  

Bowden Francis (TOR) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL)  

Good little pitching battle here with Bowden Francis taking on promising rookie right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano. 

Sitting 5-8, the O’s have been a tough watch at times to start the year, ranking in the bottom half in runs scored and 27th in on-base percentage over the last seven days.  

The Blue Jays just took three out of four against the Boston at Fenway, so they should head into this game with confidence now that Vladimir Guerrero and George Springer are starting to heat up at the plate. 

Sugano, meanwhile, gave up a couple of runs to this same Toronto lineup during his first start in Toronto two weeks ago, so the Jays should know a thing or two about what he might throw now that they’ve had a chance to properly scout him.  

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (11:40am)  
Tip: Rangers to Win @ $1.75 + Jacob deGrom Under Strikeout Total  

Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs Bryce Miller (SEA) 

Jacob deGrom is on the mound for his fourth career start in Seattle after giving up four earned runs to the Rays last week. 

This is the future Hall of Famer’s first road start since last September, but there’s a lot to like about his career numbers at T-Mobile Park with a 1.62 ERA next to his name. 

After being swept in San Francisco, the Mariners are enjoying a bounce-back week, winning two of three against the Astros, while they’ve also been disciplined at the plate, ranking towards the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage. 

Bryce Miller has been somewhat of a liability on the mound however, surrendering four earned runs to the Giants last week on seven hits. Given this Rangers lineup is loaded with power hitters and the red-hot Wyatt Langford, I think Texas is the way to play this one. 

Daily MLB Tips – Friday, April 11

Friday’s Home Run Bets  

Marcell Ozuna vs Philadelphia Phillies  

  • Ozuna holds some handy numbers against Phillies right-hander Jesus Luzardo, including three hits and a homer in 11 plate appearances.  

Jose Ramirez vs Chicago White Sox  

  • J-Ram has been hot over the last seven days, clubbing three homers against the Angels earlier in the week. He’s faced White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon twice in the past, registering a double that came in at 91.3 MPH off the bat. 
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (6:10am)
Tip: Blue Jays to Win + Chris Bassitt Over Strikeout Total  

Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs Walker Buehler (BOS)  

Even money on offer for these two AL East foes after the Jays won yesterday’s extra innings battle.  

Walker Buehler is off to a rocky start to his Boston tenure, pitching to a 8.68 ERA with three home runs allowed through only two starts, while Chris Bassitt has pitched 12.2 innings of one run ball, striking out nine last week in a loss to the Mets.  

The Blue Jays’ run support has failed to deliver, but the Red Sox so far are 1-5 on the year following a previous loss. With one of their best arms on the mound and Boston’s also proving hot and cold offensively, the price on Toronto is worth a small play. 

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (9:15am)  
Tip: Under 8.0 Runs  

Jesus Luzardo (PHI) vs Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) 

Kind of surprised to find the Run Total set as high as eight with these two strike throwers on the mound. 

Schwellenbach might be the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award right now with 14 scoreless innings and just as many strikeouts to his name, while Jesus Luzardo is also in the running after blanking the Dodgers for seven innings last week in a 3-2 win.  

Obviously the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Marcell Ozuna can dent the scoreboard, but with two quality arms on the mound, I’m leaning toward a similar low-scoring game to yesterday’s Game 2.  

Daily MLB Tips – Thursday, April 10

Thursday's Home Run Bets

Nick Castellanos vs Philadelphia Flyers 

  • Castellanos has recorded a pair of hits in three plate appearances against Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, including a homer that registered 96.9 MPH. 

Rafael Devers vs Toronto Blue Jays  

  • Boston’s new DH has gone deep off Kevin Gausman and recorded five doubles in 30 at bats against the veteran.  
Texas Rangers @ Chicago Cubs (4:20am)
Tip: Cubs to Win + Rangers Under the Run Total  

Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)  

Another cold day in Chicago with a strong chance of rain heading into Game 3 between the Rangers and Cubs. 

Lefty Shota Imanaga takes the mound looking to build on a promising start to the season that has seen him allow only two earned runs across 18.1 innings. 

Last year, the Japanese sensation was prone to giving up a home run or two, but so far this year he’s given up only one as he continues to find success with his slider. 

The Rangers rank 22nd in the league in runs scored against lefties, so this could be another slow, cold, low-scoring game. 

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (9:15am)  
Tip: Phillies to Win @ $2.05 

Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs Grant Holmes (ATL)  

The Taijuan Walker experience has been a rollercoaster for Phillies fans. 

The veteran right-hander posted one of the worst ERAs in the league last year (7.10) but responded nicely in his first start against the Rockies last week by posting six shutout innings and allowing only three hits.  

Whether you can rely on Walker to post similar numbers against a loaded Braves lineup goes without saying, although runs have proven hard to come by for Atlanta as they still rank dead last in the league over the first two weeks. 

If the Phils can get at least four innings of work out of Walker before turning things over to their relievers, they should be a decent chance here as slight outsiders. 

Daily MLB Tips – Wednesday, April 9

Wednesday's Home Run Bets

Bryan Reynolds vs St Louis Cardinals  

  • Reynolds is the only member of the current Pirates lineup to go deep twice against veteran right-hander Sonny Gray. 

Ozzie Albies vs Philadelphia Phillies 

  • Albies has homered twice off Zac Wheeler, while one of his hardest hits registered a tick over 90 MPH off the end of the bat. 
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers (3:10am)  
Tip: Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts  

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal looks a solid bet to continue racking up K’s. 

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner is already off to a fast start with 10 across two starts against the Dodgers and Mariners, and he’ll likely be confident heading into his first home start against a Yankees side that he largely got the better of last year. 

In two starts, Skubal allowed only three earned runs to go with 17 K’s across 12 innings of work, solid numbers as he now faces a Yankees team that ranks ninth in strikeout rate to start the year. 

St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (8:40am)  
Tip: Pirates to Win @ $1.72 

Sonny Gray (STL) vs Paul Skenes (PIT) 

Pirates righty Paul Skenes remains must-watch viewing as he prepares for his first NL Central start of the season on Wednesday against the Red Birds.  

Now in his first full year, Skenes is looking to build on two solid starts that have seen him compile 13 K’s and give up only two runs and as many walks against the Marlins and Rays.  

The Cardinals got off to a hot start over the first week, but they’ve cooled off losing their fourth consecutive game to Pittsburgh last night. Their K-rate remains down and they are still scoring runs, but with Skenes on the mound throwing gas, the Buccos are the play here. 

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (8:45am)  
Tip: Red Sox to Win + Blue Jays Under Run Total 

Easton Lucas (TOR) vs Garrett Crochet (BOS) 

Boston’s new million dollar man Garrett Crochet prepares to start his first game at Fenway after tossing eight scoreless innings last week in Baltimore.  

Crochet has been leaning more in his cutter and sinker this season compared to his regular four-seamer, which has paid off in a big way with a combined 12 strikeouts through his first two starts. 

The Blue Jays picked up a win yesterday to kick off this series, but their offense remains stop/start, while this is also a tricky road spot for third-year lefty Easton Lucas in his first start in Boston.  

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, April 8

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals (8:45am)  
Tip: Dodgers to Win & Over 5.5 Runs @ $1.85 

Dustin May (LAD) vs Mackenzie Gore (WAS) 

Should be a fun battle on the mound here between two of the more exciting young arms in baseball. 

Dustin May returned to the rubber in triumphant fashion during his first start of the season last week against the Braves, pitching five shutout innings to go with six strikeouts and only three walks.  

Mackenzie Gore is off to an equally strong start, striking out 13 on Opening Day before giving up three runs in a loss to the Blue Jays last week.  

Everything considered, the Under is enticing. But with the Dodgers looking to bounce back from their second loss to the Phillies last night, their offence poses a genuine test for Gore at home. 

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners (11:40am)  
Tip: Logan Gilbert Over Strikeout Total  

Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA) 

Mariners righty Logan Gilbert has been phenomenal to start the season, striking out eight on Opening Day prior to last week’s dazzling 10 strikeout day in the loss to Detroit. 

Seattle’s run support hasn’t been great, but this is still a good spot for Gilbert to rack up bulk K’s against an Astros lineup that ranks second in strikeout percentage through the first two weeks of the season. 

Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants (11:45am) 
Tip: Giants to Win @ $1.70 

Hunter Greene (CIN) vs Logan Webb (SF) 

Reds righty flamethrower Hunter Greene matches up with the Giants for a second time after holding them to just two runs on Opening Day.  

Sitting 8-1 atop the NL West, San Francisco’s hot start has caught most of the league off guard as they continue to find way to grind out victories, despite ranking bottom five in the league in runs scored. 

On the flip side, the Reds have been almost allergic to scoring runs over the last week, which makes this a tough task with the Giants getting a second look at their ace in the span of two weeks. 

Daily MLB Tips – Saturday, April 5

Saturday’s Home Run Bets  

Shohei Ohtani @ Philadelphia Phillies  

Last year’s home run leader is already off to a hot start, sending three balls over the fence, including a walkoff against the Braves earlier in the week. Ohtani is the only player in the Dodgers lineup to take Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo deep, so he looks a nice bet.

Julio Rodriguez @ San Francisco Giants  

J-Rod has enjoyed some success against future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, registering six hits, including a double and a homer, in 25 plate appearances. He’s yet to hit a ball out of San Francisco’s Oracle Park, so this might be his moment.  

San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs (5:20am)  
Tip: Cubs Over the Run Total  

Randy Vasquez (SD) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC) 

After three straight road trips, the Cubs finally open their season at Wrigley with the Padres in town for three games. 

Shota Imanaga has impressed in two starts in Tokyo and Arizona, allowing only one earned run across 11 combined innings to go with six strikeouts and just as many walks. 

Considering those two starts were against the Dodgers and DBacks, two of the best NL teams in their own right, this start against San Diego shouldn’t be much tougher for the Japanese right-hander.  

With Chicago’s offence coming off a three-game sweep against the A’s that saw them put up 35 runs, the Cubs look like a nice bet here to give the fans at the friendly confines something to cheer about. 

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies (9:45am) 
Tip: Under 8.0 Runs @ $1.94 + Imanaga Under Strikeout Total 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Jesus Luzardo (PHI) 

Excellent pitching matchup here between two of the more exciting young arms in the league. 

Jesus Luzardo was enormous in his first start for the Phils last week in Washington, allowing only two runs across five frames to go with 11 strikeouts and a pair of walks. 

Likewise, Yamamoto is off to a hot start, holding the Cubs to only one run in Tokyo before striking out 10 against the Tigers last week on 91 pitches.  

The way the Dodgers are swinging the bats (and winning games) you’d be mad not to bet on them right now. But if Yamamoto and Luzardo bring their best stuff, runs could come at a premium. 

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (10:15am)
Tip: Braves to Cover (-1.5 Runs) + Schwellenback Over Strikeout Total  

 Max Meyer (MIA) vs Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)  

Still winless, the Braves arrive back in Atlanta with some serious ground to make up in the NL East.  

Now 0-7, Brian Snitker’s side sends Spender Schwellenback to the mound after the right-hander pitched six shutout innings in an eventual 1-0 loss to the Padres last week.  

Now in his second season, the 24-year-old threw 58 strikes on 90 pitches, making him a serious arm to watch in the NL Cy Young chase as the season progresses.  

The Marlins, on the other hand, turn to Max Meyer, who gave up 14 homers last year in 11 starts to the tune of a 5.68 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. 

The Fish rank middle of the league in strikeout percentage, so if the Braves are to snap the skid, this might be their best opportunity. 

Daily MLB Tips – Friday, April 4

Friday’s Home Run Bets

Cody Bellinger v Arizona Diamondbacks  

  • In 26 at-bats, Belli has taken DBacks starter Merrill Kelly deep twice.  
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies (4:05am)
Tip: Back the Rockies to Win @ $2.80 

 Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs Taijuan Walker (PHI) 

There’s a minor case to be made for the Rockies here, if you’re brave enough to take the $2.80 about them on the road. 

Antonio Senzatela flashed some nice stuff in his first start against the Rays last week, pitching into the fourth where he gave up only nine hits and a pair of walks.  

Taijuan Walker, on the other hand, remains an adventure for the Phillies. 

The veteran 32-year-old made 15 starts last year, finishing with a career-worst 7.10 ERA after struggling to make it past the third inning late in the season. 

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (10:40am)
Tip: Reds to Win ($1.95) + Under 8.0 Runs 

Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs Nestor Cortes (MIL) 

Nestor Cortes was rocked in his return to the Bronx last week, making history by becoming the first pitcher to give up back-to-back-to-back homers on three consecutive pitches against the Yankees. 

Making his first start as a member of the Brewers at home might help settle the nerves, although it’s worth noting American Family Field is a completely unfamiliar environment for the left-hander. 

The Reds, meanwhile, send their own southpaw to the mound in the form of Nick Lodolo, who lasted six innings last week when allowing only two earned runs against the Giants.  

Side by side, Lodolo is the arm I’d trust a little more right now, but given over 60% of the Reds divisional games fell under the total last year, you could hedge your bets on a low-scoring game as well. 

Daily MLB Tips – Thursday, April 3

Thursday's Home Run Bets

Rafael Devers @ Baltimore Orioles

  • Is Raffy still hurt or is he just off to a slow start as Boston’s new DH? Either way, he owns a pair of homers against O’s righty Zach Eflin, so this might be the day he gets hot.

Trea Turner vs Colorado Rockies 

  • Trea’s played in only two games so far for the Phils, so you can forgive him for not yet registering a hit. He’s taken Rockies starter Kyle Freeland deep twice though, the hardest hit registering 92.1 MPH off the end of the bat.
Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays (6:07am)
Tip: Mackenzie Gore Over Strikeout Total

Mackenzie Gore (WAS) vs TBD (TOR)

Nats left-hander Mackenzie Gore is back on the mound after mowing down 13 hitters last week in a six-inning shutout against the Phillies.

The 26-year-old had slightly worse numbers on the road last year than he did at home (4.11 ERA), but this is still a favourable assignment against a Blue Jays team that has clubbed only four homers since the season began.

Rogers Centre is one of the few ballparks Gore is yet to pitch in, but after touching close to 96 MPH with his fastball last week and 86 with his slider, this looks like a breakthrough kinda year for the former first-round pick.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (9:35am)
Tip: Garrett Crochet Over Strikeout Total

Garrett Crochet (BOS) vs Zach Eflin (BAL)

I’m looking at new $170 million man Garrett Crochet to deliver some K’s in Game 2 between these AL East foes.

The Red Sox handed Crochet a seven-year extension on Tuesday, and after picking up a win in Texas on Opening Day where he allowed only two runs, I think this is a good matchup for the left-hander against an O’s side that ranks eighth in strikeouts over the first week.

Crochet struck out 11 when he faced Baltimore as a member of the White Sox last year, striking out the Orioles’ hot-handed second baseman Jordan Westburg three times.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Yankees (10:05am)  
Tip: Yankees to Win & Over the Run Total  

Zac Gallen (ARI) vs Carlos Rodon (NYY) 

The Bronx Bombers and their new torpedo bats have been wreaking havoc on the league over the first week, particularly here at home where they’ve clubbed 15 home runs entering Wednesday. 

Zac Gallen looked a little shaky in his first start for the DBacks against the Cubs last week, allowing four earned runs in as many innings, while Yankees starter Carlos Rodon struck out seven Brewers as he pitched into the fifth. 

Arizona’s offence is capable of matching the Yankees, but given some of their hot and cold games against Chicago during the opening series, the Pinstripes are the way I’m leaning here. 

Daily MLB Tips – Wednesday, April 2

Wednesday's Home Run Bets

Win

Juan Soto/Pete Alonso vs Miami Marlins  

  • Take your pick between these two. Soto owns a pair of homers against Sandy Alcantara, while Alonso has taken him deep and recorded five hits. 

Cody Bellinger vs Arizona Diamondbacks 

  • In 21 at-bats vs DBacks starter Corbin Burnes, Belli has registered five hits and gone deep once. 

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins (9:40am)

Win

Tip: Mets Under 4.5 Runs @ $1.75

Kodai Senga (NYM) vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA) 

New York’s forkball master Kodai Senga takes on Sandy Alcantara to kick off this three-game NL East set between the Mets and Marlins. 

Alcantara was enormous in his return to the mound from Tommy John on Opening Day, allowing only two earned runs against the Pirates to go with seven strikeouts.  

Most encouragingly, Alcantara’s fastball velocity was right up above 98MPH, which doesn’t bode particularly well for a Mets team that managed only five runs across three games against the Astros.  

A day off may have done the Mets some good, but with Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil still missing, this could be another frustrating game on the road for the visitors.  

Los Angeles Angels @ St Louis Cardinals (9:45am)

Win

Tip: Back the Cardinals to Win @ $1.75

Kyle Hendricks (LAA) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)  

The Cardinals were handed their first loss of the season yesterday in extra innings against the Angels, so it’s worth taking the value on offer for them to bounce back with Los Angeles sending Kyle Hendricks to the mound. 

The former Cub has some of the nastiest breaking stuff in the league, but now entering his 12th season with a new team, his velocity continues to trend down alongside his innings count.  

Surprisingly, the Cards rank seventh in the league in runs scored over the first week. After leaving 12 runners on base and finishing 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position, I’m willing to back the Redbirds to get back to business. 

Chicago Cubs @ Athletics (1:05pm)

Win

Tip: Cubs Under 4.5 Runs @ $1.75 

Justin Steele (CHC) vs Luis Severino (A’s) 

The Cubs and A’s gave the scoreboard a workout in Game 1 yesterday, but we could be in for the total opposite on Wednesday with two strike throwers on the mound. 

Luis Severino was enormous on Opening Day against the Mariners last week, tossing six shutout innings to go with as many strikeouts and only four weeks. 

Justin Steele, meanwhile, earned the win in the opener against the DBacks where he lasted five innings and gave up there earned runs and a homer.  

Led by the newly signed Kyle Tucker, the Cubs’ offence has been hot to start the year, but I think the edge goes to Severino if he picks up where he left off.