Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have had a disastrous campaign overall, winning just 1 in 3 games to sit 38-76. They’ve not been a good home side at all, going just 17-41 in front of their home fans. Right Fielder Trey Mancini has emerged as their premier offensive threat, totalling 27 home runs and 65 RBI on the campaign. Dylan Bundy will pitch in this one, going a poor 5-11 with a 5.15 ERA this season.
Houston Astros
In stark contrast, the Astros are absolutely soaring at 75-40 on the season. They aren’t as good on the road, although they still maintain a very solid 32-25 road record. 1st Baseman Yuri Gurriel has really come on of late, leading the team with 80 RBI to go along with his 23 home runs. Ace Wade Miley will pitch here, going 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA on the season.
Prediction: Astros -1.5
I don’t typically opt for run line bets, but the gap between these two sides is so large that I’m confident of a big Houston win. Bundy just can’t be trusted against this elite Astros attack, while Miley should comfortably get through this Orioles lineup. The $1.38 moneyline isn’t fantastic value, but the extra odds at -1.5 runs make this +EV.
New York Mets
The Mets have been good but not great this season, still in the playoff hunt at 59-56. This is in large part due to their strong home record, where they’re 32-20 on the campaign. 1st Basemen Pete Alonso has led the charge all year, putting up epic stats of 37 home runs and 83 RBI. Marcus Stroman will start in this one, having been poor so far since being acquired from Toronto.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals have been in some excellent form of late, looking like likely playoff participants at 61-53. They’ve been very solid on the road this season, managing an impressive 31-28 record away from home. 3rd Baseman Anthony Rendon has been the key man all year, leading the squad with 24 home runs and 87 RBI. Stephen Strasburg will pitch in this one, sporting an outstanding 14-5 record to match his 3.72 ERA.
Prediction: Nationals $1.77
While the Mets have been a strong home side this season, getting Strasburg at this price is tough to ignore. The Mets are heavily reliant on Alonso for offence and if he doesn’t fire, I think they’ll really struggle to score here. Stroman is too inconsistent to be counted on here and I expect a big offensive day from Washington en route to victory.