Daily MLB Tips – Friday, September 20

Daily MLB Tips – Friday, September 20

Ryan Cook
Thursday’s Home Run Bets 

George Springer @ Texas Rangers 

  • Bit of an omen bet, but it’s Springer’s birthday today. For what it’s worth, he homered on his birthday last year.  

Marcus Semien vs Toronto Blue Jays  

  • Semien has some nice career numbers against Jays starter, Kevin Gausman. He’s taken him deep once in 29 plate appearances to go with a pair of doubles and a triple. 

Pete Alonso vs Philadelphia Phillies 

  • Alonso is really starting to heat up at the right time for the Mets, homering twice over the last seven days. He’s also taken Phillies starter Taijuan Walker deep in the past and recorded two doubles in 18 plate appearances.  
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:10am  

Chris Sale has one hand on his first-ever Cy Young award as he continues to dazzle in what has arguably been one of the greatest bounce-back seasons in Major League history. 

With the division-rival Mets surging, the Braves now find themselves two games back in the NL Wild Card picture, making every Sale start a must-win with their ace on the mound.  

On a personal note, this is a milestone game for the 35-year-old as he makes his first start at Great American Ball Park, the only stadium Sale is yet to pitch in.  

The Reds rank middle of the pack in terms of slugging and runs scored over the last seven days, while Sale has posted some solid road splits during the season, including a 7-3 win/loss record to go with a tidy 2.83 ERA.  

The odds on the Braves are too short, but on the back of last week’s seven strikeout game against the Phillies, this looks a good spot to back the Over on Sale’s K total.  

  • Tip: Chris Sale Over 6.5 Strikeouts  
Bet now: Braves v Reds
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers, 4:35am 

Kumar Rocker is back on the mound for the defending World Champs on Friday to face a Blue Jays team limping towards the finish line.  

Texas’ injury-plagued first-round draft pick threw four strong innings on debut against the Mariners last week, surrendering just one earned run to go with 7 K’s and two walks.  

It’s been a miserable season for the Jays from start to finish, compounded by the fact they rank 29th in runs scored over the last week.  

If Rocker brings his electric fastball into his long-awaited first start at Globe Life Field, he should be a nice bet to rack up some strikeouts and steer the home side to a win.  

  • Tip: Rangers to Win @ $1.87 
  • Player Pick: Kumar Rocker Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Jays v Rangers
Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs, 9:10am  

Just like last year, the Cubs have been one big disappointment down the stretch. 

Craig Counsell’s side was flirting with a Wild Card spot for the first six or so weeks post All-Star break, but losing two of three against the lowly Rockies and A’s over the last seven days has put a pen through Chicago’s chances. 

The Nats are playing for nothing more than momentum heading into next year, but with young names like James Woods, Dylan Crews, and CJ Abrams showing more potential than this current, high-paid Cubs lineup, this should still be a fascinating series at Wrigley.  

Washington will also be eager to bounce back from a disastrous series against the Mets earlier in the week, and they should feel pretty good about facing Cubs right-hander, Javier Assad.  

Like other pieces in their rotation, Assad has been slightly disappointing – particularly of late after giving up a combined four home runs over his last five starts – including a rough outing against the Rockies last week. 

  • Tip: Back the Nationals to Win  
Bet now: Nats v Cubs

Daily MLB Tips – Thursday, September 19

Ryan Cook
Thursday’s Home Run Bets  

Ketel Marte @ Colorado Rockies  

  • Marte leads the Diamondbacks in HR against left-handed pitching, while he’s also taken Rockies lefty Austin Gomber deep twice in his career. 

Salvador Perez vs Detroit Tigers 

  • Perez has proven a thorn in the side of Tigers Cy Young contender, Tarik Skubal. The Royals’ veteran has taken him deep on four occasions to go with a pair of doubles across 27 plate appearances.  

William Contreras vs Philadelphia Phillies 

  • Contreras has gone yard once already this week to go with two extra-base hits. He also took Phillies starter Aaron Nola deep when they met in 2021.  
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers, 9:40am  

Another potential NLCS preview is in the works with the Phils and Brew Crew squaring off in the rubber game of their three-game set.  

At his best, Aaron Nola is one of the best arms in the league, but his last two starts have been mediocre at best – allowing four earned runs to a hapless Marlins team, and six to the Mets last week.  

Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has been the polar opposite over the last few months, posting a tidy 3.13 ERA since the All-Star break with only 23 runs allowed across 11 starts.  

Peralta has been susceptible to giving up home runs (he’s allowed 21 during that time frame), but given the Brewers are ranked second in runs scored over the last week, Philly and Nola look the more vulnerable of the two teams. 

  • Tip: Back the Brewers to Win @ $1.92 
  • Player Pick: Aaron Nola Over Earned Runs Allowed 
Bet now: Phillies v Brewers
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers, 10:05am  

Bowden Francis has been one of the stories of the second half of the season, and arguably, the bright spot on Toronto’s lost season.  

The 28-year-old put together another special performance last week against the Mets, giving up just one run across eight innings with only one walk allowed.  

The right-hander doesn’t rack up the K’s, but he does boast a nice mix of off-speed stuff to compliment his cut fastball.  

Against a Rangers team that ranks 26th in runs scored over the last week, I think there are a few decent betting options if you want to cash-in on Bowden’s arm. 

  • Tip: Rangers Under 3.5 Runs  
  • Player Pick: Bowden Francis Under Earned Runs Allowed 
Bet now: Jays v Rangers

Daily MLB Tips – Wednesday, September 18

Ryan Cook
Wednesday’s Home Run Bets  

Andrew McCutchen @ St Louis Cardinals  

  • Cutch has recorded 13 hits and four doubles in a large sample size of plate appearances against Cardinals veteran, Lance Lynn. He’s also hit a homer and recorded a pair of extra-base hits over the last seven days.  

Adley Rutschman vs San Francisco Giants 

  • Rutschman has recorded 2 hits in 3 at-bats against Blake Snell, including a double that registered an average exit velocity of 95.7 MPH off the bat.  
Bet now: Home Run Bets
San Francisco Giants @ Baltimore Orioles, 8:36am 

Blake Snell is back on the rubber for the Giants for this key inter-league game against the O’s. 

San Francisco is well out of the playoff race at this stage, but they could be a nice bet to snap their current four-game losing skid based on some of Snell’s numbers during the second half of the season.  

The reigning Cy Young-award winner has been elite since the All-Star break, posting the second-lowest ERA in the league (1.76) to go with only 2 HR allowed. 

Most importantly, Snell leads the league in strikeouts during that time frame, which should worry an O’s team that has posted a mid 19-24 record against inter-league opponents.  

  • Tip: Back the Giants to Win @ $1.82 
  • Player Pick: Blake Snell Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Giants v Orioles
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals, 9:40am  

Cole Ragans is back on the mound for his third start of the year against the division-rival Tigers.  

The star lefty blanked them across six innings to combine with 13 strikeouts earlier in the year, following that performance up with another solid two-run outing against Detroit in August.  

The Tigers rank towards the bottom of the league in runs scored against southpaws and 11th in strikeout rate, so despite their late Wild Card surge, I’m with the Royals and Ragans’ arm. 

  • Tip: Tigers Under 3.5 Runs  
  • Player Pick: Cole Ragans Over Strikeout Total 
Bet now: Tigers v Royals
New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners, 11:40am 

Leaning towards a low-scoring game here with Luis Gil and Bryan Woo taking the mound.  

The pair have been tough to score runs against over the course of the season, particularly Gil, who shutout the Cubs two starts back before giving up just one earned run against the Royals last week.  

Likewise, Woo is coming off a solid outing against a tough Padres lineup, lasting 6.2 innings and coughing up only a pair of runs. He also ranks bottom 10 in earned runs allowed during the second half of the season.  

  • Tip: Under 7 Runs @ $1.90 

 

Bet now: Yankees v Mariners

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, September 17

Ryan Cook
Tuesday’s Home Run Bets 

Max Muncy @ Atlanta Braves  

  • Muncy has recorded 5 hits in 19 plate appearances against Max Fried, including 2 HR and a triple.  

Ryan McMahon vs Arizona Diamondbacks  

  • McMahon has recorded 6 hits in 13 plate appearances against D-Back starter Merrill Kelly, including 2 HR and a double. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves, 9:20am  

Siding with the Braves in this one as they try and maintain their spot in the Wild Card chase over the next two weeks.  

Atlanta has won only five of its last 10 games, but the Braves do boast some likable numbers – currently sitting third-last in strikeout rate over the last seven days.  

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is making his second start after missing a good chunk of time to injury midseason, and although he threw four scoreless innings against the Cubs on return last week, this is a much different Braves lineup loaded with good, clutch hitters.  

  • Tip: Back the Braves to Win @ $1.90 
  • Player Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over Earned Runs Allowed 
Bet now: Dodgers v Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals, 9:40am  

Pittsburgh’s rookie sensation Paul Skenes is back on the mound for his 21st start on Tuesday.  

The 22-year-old is coming off a solid one-run outing against the Marlins last week, and now meets a Cardinals team that has been all but mathematically eliminated from the Wild Card race in the National League.  

The Redbirds rank second-last in the league in runs scored over the last seven days, but even if St Louis was scoring runs, it might not matter much against Skenes’ arm.  

This year’s All-Star starter has thrown two solid outings against the Cards, holding them scoreless in May, and surrendering just two runs in 8.1 innings of work in July.  

Based on all the numbers I’ve just thrown at you, I like Skenes to dominate this matchup and hold the Cardinals to a low score.  

  • Tip: Cardinals Under 3.5 Runs 
  • Player Pick: Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts  
Bet now: Pirates v Cardinals

Daily MLB Tips – Saturday, September 14

Ryan Cook
Saturday Home Run Bets

Pete Alonso @ Philadelphia Phillies  

  • Alonso has taken Phillies starter Aaron Nola deep on five occasions. 

Ezequiel Tovar vs Chicago Cubs 

  • Tovar has recorded 2 hits and 4 at-bats against Cubs starter Javier Assad, including a double registering an average exit velocity of 94.6 MPH.  

Kevin Newman vs Milwaukee Brewers  

  • Newman has taken Freddy Peralta deep in the past and also recorded a pair of doubles over the course of 15 plate appearances. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies, 8:40am  

This is a big series starting Saturday between two NL East rivals.  

The Mets are the hottest team in the league right now, and although they won’t catch the Phils atop the division, they are in the driver’s seat to snag a Wild Card spot and contend.  

Veteran lefty Jose Quintana is a big reason for New York’s recent turnaround, particularly over the last three weeks where he’s allowed just one earned run in as many starts.  

The 35-year-old blanked the Reds last week across six innings, similar to his start three weeks ago against the Padres in San Diego.  

Philly is one of the best teams in the league against southpaws, but Quintana has kept them in check allowing a combined five earned runs across two starts this season.  

He’s yet to have a Phillies hitter take him deep, so on the back of his recent success, I’m backing Quintana’s arm to do the talking in a Mets win. 

  • Tip: Back the Mets to Win @ $2.35 
  • Player Pick: Jose Quintana Under Strikeout Total 
Bet now: Mets vs Phillies
Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox, 9:40am

Garrett Crochet takes the rubber for his 30th start of the season hoping to bounce back from a rough outing against the Red Sox last week.

Chicago’s left-hander gave up four earned runs in just two frames, far and away his worst start since giving up seven runs to the Cubs close to a month ago.  

The A’s have been better than most thought they would be heading into the season, but with only five wins from their last 10 games, alongside a the fact they rank 26th in the league against left-handed pitching, this looks like one of the rare spots where you can bet the White Sox with confidence.  

  • Tip: Back the White Sox to Win @ $2.05 
  • Player Pick: Garrett Crochet Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: A's v White Sox
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 12:10pm 

Jacob deGrom is slated to make his first start of the season for the Rangers on Saturday after missing most of the year due to Tommy John

The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner has looked sharp in four rehab starts, allowing just runs across 10 2/3rd innings to go with 15 strikeouts and only three hits allowed.  

As I wrote yesterday, Seattle has been scoring runs for fun over the last week though, currently ranked Top 5in the category alongside a strikeout percentage that ranks in the bottom half of the league.  

A pitcher of deGrom’s caliber could easily come out and dominate, but I’m willing to bet on some rust from the 36-year-old on the road.  

  • Tip: Back the Mariners to Win @ $1.95 
  • Player Pick: Jacob deGrom Under Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Rangers v Mariners

Daily MLB Tips – Friday, September 13

Ryan Cook
Friday’s Home Run Bets

Rob Refsnyder @ New York Yankees  

  • Refsnyder has ripped three doubles against Yankees righty Nestor Cortes in just 16 plate appearances.  

Spencer Steer @ St Louis Cardinals  

  • Steer has gone yard twice against Reds veteran Spencer Steer. His hardest hit ball registered a 99.4 MPH average exit velocity off the bat. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros, 4:10am  

There hasn’t been a better pitcher over the last 30 days, at least among qualified starters, than Astros lefty, Framber Valdez.  

The two-time All-Star has been dealing since mid-August, posting a 1.11 ERA across five starts with zero home runs allowed and only nine walks.  

Most importantly, Valdez has struck out exactly 40 hitters during that time frame, which doesn’t bode well for an A’s team that ranks 26th in runs scored against southpaws, and 11th in strikout percentage.  

  • Tip: A’s Under 2.5 Runs  
  • Player Pick: Framber Valdez Over 7.5 Strikeouts  
Bet now: A's v Astros
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, 11:40am  

Kumar Rocker makes his long-awaited MLB debut on Friday after waiting nearly two years to take the mound in The Show.  

The former first round draft pick has had a delayed start to his career due to injury, opting for Tommy John surgery last year that ruled him out for the entirety of the season.  

At his best, the 24-year-old boasts an electric fastball that he can throw over 100 MPH, which has been on full display at Triple A recently where he’s posted a 1.80 ERA across two starts to go with 18 strikeouts and just one walk.  

Promotion to the Big Leagues poses an entirely different set of challenges, though, especially against a Mariners side that ranks Top 5 in runs to go with 9 HR over the last seven days.  

  • Tip: Mariners Over the Run Total  
  • Player Pick: Kumar Rocker Under Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Rangers v Mariners

Daily MLB Tips – Thursday, September 12

Ryan Cook
Thursday’s Home Run Bets  

George Springer vs New York Mets  

  • Springer has recorded a pair of doubles and a HR against Mets starter Sean Manaea.  

Rafael Devers vs Baltimore Orioles 

  • Devers has recorded 2 HR against Orioles starter Dean Kremer.
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees, 9:05am  

Cole Ragans has been kind to us over the last month, so there’s really no reason to hop off his strikeout total right now.  

The Royals have stormed the Bronx to take two games away from the Yankees, which comes as no surprise given the Yankees’ struggles at the plate and on the scoreboard.  

Ragans is a lefty, so it’s worth noting the Bronx Bombers rank middle of the league in runs scored against southpaws. 

With the Royals swinging some hot bats on their way to the postseason, betting on Rangans’ arm feels like a safe enough play. 

  • Tip: Yankees Under 4.5 Runs 
  • Player Pick: Cole Ragans Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Royals v Yankees

Daily MLB Tips – Wednesday, September 11

Ryan Cook
Wednesday’s Home Run Bets  

Marcell Ozuna @ Washington Nationals  

  • Ozuna has recorded 5 HR against left-handed pitching to go with 1 HR and six hits off Nats southpaw Mackenzie Gore.  

Mitch Haniger vs San Diego Padres 

  • Haniger has recorded 1 HR in eight plate appearances against Padres righty Yu Darvish. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins, 9:40am  

Pablo Lopez’s strikeout total is probably the no-brainer play of the day.  

The sixth-year righty has been on a tear over the last four weeks, striking out 29 batters across his last five starts to go with a solid 1.98 ERA.  

The Angels rank 19th in runs scored over the last seventh days, and with a poor 30-42 record away from home this year, they look likely to struggle.

  • Player Pick: Pablo Lopez Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Angels v Twins
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros, 10:10am  

The A’s and ‘Stros return from a day off, both sporting winning records in this scenario.  

Oakland isn’t a team I’d typically bet on outright, but I feel good about their chances with righty Osvaldo Bido taking the rubber.  

The 29-year-old has been senastional over the last month, posting a tidy 2.08 ERA over his last five starts with only eight walks allowed.  

He’s not a high-strikeout pitcher, but after putting away six batters in his last start against Houston a couple of months ago, I think his K total is worth a dabble.  

  • Tip: Back the A’s to Win @ $2.55 
  • Player Pick: Osvaldo Bido Over 3.5 Strikeouts  
Bet now: A's v Astros
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 12:10pm 

The Cubs cost us yesterday winning a 10-4 blowout in Game 1 against the Dodgers, and I think they can keep that momentum rolling with their ace Shota Imanaga on the mound for Game 2.  

The Japanese sensation was pulled after pitching seven no-hit innings against the Pirates last week, his eighth scoreless start of the season.  

Despite Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani hitting home runs every other day, the Dodgers have been struggling a little at the plate over the last seven days, striking out close to 25% of the time – the ninth highest rate in the league.  

Imanaga hurled four scoreless frames to go with 3 K’s in just his second big league start earlier in the year, so based on everything we’ve seen lately, I think he can put up some nice numbers again.  

  • Tip: Back the Cubs to Win @ $2.45 
  • Player Pick: Shota Imanaga Over Strikeout Total  
Bet now: Cubs v Dodgers

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, September 10

Ryan Cook
Tuesday’s Home Run Bets  

Shohei Ohtani vs Chicago Cubs  

  • Ohtani has recorded two hits, including a double and a HR, in three plate appearances against Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks.  

Salvador Perez @ New York Yankees  

  • Perez has recorded 2 HR and a double off Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. 
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 8:30am  

Somewhat of a no-brainer here to back Paul Skenes against the struggling Marlins.  

After giving up two earned runs the week prior, Pittsburgh’s All-Star righty got some revenge against the Cubs last week when he posted five shutout innings, allowing just four hits and as many walks.  

This Marlins lineup is anywhere close to what the Cubs bring in terms of power, evident in the fact they rank Top 5 in strikeout rate over the last seven days.  

This is Skenes’ first look at the Marlins, but if he gets some much-needed run support, I’m confident he’ll rack up the K’s. 

  • Tip: Paul Skenes 8+ Strikeouts (Alternate Line) @ $2.30 
Bet now: Marlins vs Pirates
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 12:10pm 

The Cubs salvaged a series sweep at the hands of the Yankees yesterday with a much-needed win, but this is still a difficult travel spot flying from Chicago to Los Angeles on short rest.  

To make matters worse, Kyle Hendricks takes the mound sporting a 6.60 ERA, which doesn’t read much better than his overall career numbers at Dodger Stadium (sub 7.00 ERA across three starts).  

With the Dodgers swinging hot bats and posting a .317 on-base percentage over the last seven days, it’s hard to go against the home side to kick off this series.  

  • Tip: Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs 
Bet now: Cubs vs Dodgers

Daily MLB Tips – Friday, September 6

Ryan Cook
Friday’s Home Run Bets  

Mike Yastremzki vs Arizona Diamondbacks 

  • Yastremzki has recorded 8 hits and 3 HR against Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly. 

Sean Murphy vs Colorado Rockies  

  • Murphy recorded a double against Rockies starter Austin Gomber when they met last year, a scorching extra-base hit that registered an exit velocity of 105.9 MPH off the bat.  
Bet now: Home Run Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, 5:45am 

Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Blake Snell (SF) 

Backing the Snakes against left-handed pitching has typically been a safe play throughout the season.  

Snell is mounting a Cy Young-like case during the second half of the season, allowing no more than three earned runs since returning from the IL across 10 starts, but the Diamondbacks currently lead the league in runs scored against southpaws, whilst also sitting Top 5 in home runs.  

Snell hasn’t faced Arizona at all this year, and if you haven’t already seen, the Answerbacks have been one of the hottest team in baseball over the last month.  

  • Tip: Back the Diamondbacks to Win @ $2.26/Diamondbacks Over 3.5 Runs  
Bet now: Diamondbacks vs Giants
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves, 9:20am  

Austin Gomber (COL) vs Reynaldo Lopez (ATL)  

This one has all the makings of a low-scoring game.  

The Braves and Rockies both rank bottom five in the league in runs scored over the last seven days, while up the other end, the two clubs rank Top 10 in strikeout rate during the same time frame.  

Austin Gomber hasn’t faced Atlanta since last season, but he should feel confident knowing the Braves hold one of the worst strikeout rates vs left-handed pitching.  

If you’re brave, take the Rockies for a win, but the Under looks the safest play.  

  • Tip: Under 8.5 Runs @ $1.82 

 

Bet now: Rockies vs Braves