Daily MLB Tips – Sunday, October 6

Daily MLB Tips – Sunday, October 6

Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees, 8:40am 

Game 1 

The Yankees have enjoyed a week off after securing the AL East crown over the final few days of the regular season.  

They’ll face a hot Royals team that just knocked out the O’s in dramatic fashion away from home, but remains a stiff test against last year’s AL Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole.  

Over the last 30 days, Cole has been one of the most reliable arms in the league, allowing a combined nine earned runs across five starts to go with 30 strikeouts.  

In similar fashion, Cole has kept the Royals in check throughout his career, posting an ERA below 3.00, matching a similar 2.93 mark when he pitches in the postseason.  

It goes without saying that the Yankee lineup holds more power compared to Kansas City’s, highlighted by the fact they rank fifth in the league in runs scored over the last calendar month. 

Rested and looking to build on a winning end to the regular season, the Yankees look the play with their ace on the mound for Game 1. 

  • Tip: Back the Yankees to Cover the Run Line (-1.5) 
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:40am 

Game 1 

Hands down the series we all hoped for between two fierce division rivals.  

The Padres have owned the Dodgers during the season series winning six of their last 10 games, while at least on paper, I think the Friars have a serious advantage on the mound from top to bottom. 

Los Angeles’ rotation is still wounded with Clayton Kershaw, River Ryan, Tyler Glasnow, and Tony Gonsolin on the IL, not to mention the Dodgers are also questionable offensively with Freddie Freeman listed as day-to-day with an ankle injury.  

The Padres showed during their sweep over the Braves that their bullpen is the real deal, and even though they have some pitching question marks of their own when it comes to Joe Musgrove, they are easily the healthier team of the two. 

You could argue this is a must-win game with the Dodgers starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but the Padres would also like to make use of their healthy arms with Dylan Cease slated for Game 1.  

Cease has averaged close to three earned runs allowed over his last five starts, but the right-hander did hold this same Dodgers lineup to just three hits when they met earlier in July.  

With a break between starts, my money is on Cease and the Padres on the road as outsiders. 

  • Tip: Back the Padres to Win @ $2.15 
  • Player Pick: Dylan Cease Under Earned Runs Total Allowed 

Daily MLB Tips – Wild Card Round Day 3

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers, 10:40am  

Series Tied 1-1

A date with the Phillies in the Divisional Series awaits Friday’s winner of Game 3.

After losing 8-4 in Game 1, the Brewers responded in the late innings yesterday thanks to a second HR from Jackson Churio, and some more heroics from pinch-hitter Garrett Mitchell.  

The pitching matchup for Game 3 sees Jose Quintana face off against Tobias Myers, a rematch of their meeting last Sunday that saw Mets shutout 6-0.  

Quintana has been solid over the last four weeks, but his four-seam fastball velocity was lacking at times, while he also gave up eight hard hits in play over the 4.1 innings he pitched.  

Myers was much more solid striking out five across four scoreless frames, while I’ve already written extensively over the last couple of days about the Brewers’ success against left-handed pitching all year.  

It’s worth noting the Mets have posted a 41-32 record over the season following a previous loss, but it feels as though they are lacking some production from big names like Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, while I also wonder if the added travel over the last week is starting to catch up to them. 

With Churio swinging for the fences, the price for the Brewers to win the series is tough to ignore.  

  • Tip: Back the Brewers to Win @ $1.82 
  • Player Pick: Starling Marte to Hit a Home Run 

Daily MLB Tips – Wild Card Round Day 2

Thursday’s Home Run Bets  

Marcell Ozuna @ San Diego Padres 

  • Ozuna has recorded three doubles in 20 plate appearances against Padres starter Joe Musgrove. 

Yordan Alvarez vs Kansas City Royals  

  • Alvarez has been Houston’s most productive hitter against lefties this year, averaging .362 against southpaws to go with 10 HR.  

Salvador Perez @ Baltimore Orioles  

  • Perez has some nice career numbers against O’s starter Zach Eflin, including a home run that registered over 98 MPH off the end of the bat. 
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers, 9:10am  

NYM Leads 1-0

Sean Manaea is back on the mound in Milwaukee on Thursday for Game 2 against the Brewers.  

The Mets pounced in the middle innings on Wednesday on their way to a surprising 8-4 win, led by Jesse Winker’s triple and some clutch hitting from Mark Vientos.  

Manaea was hit hard for five earned runs across 3.2 innings of work against the Brew Crew last week, so this is a slightly favourable matchup for the home side given they finished the season ranked 12th in runs scored against lefties.  

That said, Brewers starter Frankie Montas gave up a pair of runs in a short outing against the Mets last week himself, so there’s every reason to believe this could be a high-scoring game with so much on the line. 

In terms of the series, the Mets will be glad they were able to rest star closer Edwin Diaz yesterday after the 30-year-old threw multiple innings earlier in the week.  

Whether that proves the difference remains to be seen, but with the Mets lineup swining a hot bat, and the Brewers still stuck in a drought that has plagued them over the last fortnight, we could be looking at a stunning two-game sweep.  

  • Tips: Back the Mets to Win, Over 7.5 Runs 
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres, 10:40am 

SD Leads 1-0

The Braves drew the short straw in the Wild Card round, traveling to the West Coast on short rest to face a healthy and loaded Padres lineup.  

Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr’s absence was always going to make this a tough ask for the visitors, while the way their rotation has worked out has also seen the likes of Spencer Schwellenbach require some rest.  

Fortunately, Max Fried is scheduled to start Game 2, good news with the lefty coming off an eight-inning shutout against the Royals last week that involved nine strikeouts and two walks.  

Looking at the numbers, Fried has made only two starts at Petco Park, and both have been exceptional.  

The veteran 30-year-old threw a complete game shutout against the Friars way back in 2021, before returning two years later where he gave up a grand total of zero earned runs across five frames. 

Those numbers are by no means a fluke, so based on what we saw from his stuff last week against Kansas City, I feel confident backing the Braves on Fried’s arm.  

  • Tip: Back the Braves to Win @ $2.00 
  • Player Pick: Max Fried Over 4.5 Strikeouts @ $1.85 

Daily MLB Tips – Wild Card Round Day 1

Wednesday’s Home Run Bets  

Parker Meadows @ Houston Astros  

  • Meadows has been Detroit’s hottest hitter over the last week, recording eight hits, including a homer and a double.  

Adley Rutschman vs Kansas City Royals  

  • Rutschman has been one of Baltimore’s best hitters against lefties, mashing 7 HR and nine double for a .329 average. He also owns five hits in just seven plate appearances against Cole Ragans.  

Francisco Lindor @ Milwaukee Brewers 

  • Lindor played a huge role in booking the Mets a Wild Card spot when he went yard on Tuesday. He’s also homered against Freddy Peralta in the past.  
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros, 4:33am  

Fascinating three-game matchup to start with between Tigers manager A.J. Hinch and his former side.  

The Astros are the more experienced, playoff conditioned outfit, but there’s something to be said of Detroit’s run during the second half, led by their outstanding rotation.  

Future AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal has been at the forefront of the Tigers’ success, while their bullpen might be the deepest in the American League.  

Skubal has faced the Astros twice this year to mixed results, striking out seven and giving up a couple of runs in late May, and then giving up four runs at Minute Maid Park a month later.  

The health of Yordan Alvarez is worth monitoring throughout this series, but the Astros do look the bet in Game 1 based on their 12-8 record this season after a day off.  

Keep an eye on Yordan Alvarez’s status, but with Houston’s rotation and bullpen matching that of Detroit’s, this series should go the distance. 

  • Tip: Back the Astros to Win @ $1.65 
  • Player Pick: Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed @ $1.65 
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles, 6:10am  

Another stellar pitching matchup with Cole Ragans set to face former Cy Young award winner, Corbin Burnes.  

After losing 106 games last year, the Royals have been the story of the season in 2024, led by Bobby Witt and Ragans’ surprisingly reliable arm.  

The O’s, meanwhile, were the best team in baseball for a stretch, but their second half has seen the bullpen and some of Adley Rutschman’s weaknesses exposed.  

This is a tricky series to bet on, but there are a couple of deciding factors that have me leaning towards Baltimore.  

Over the last month, we’ve seen Ragans allow only one homer and just three runs, but his walk total has gone up quite significantly in comparison to previous monthly totals.  

At the same time, the O’s are better suited to playing at their home park with a lineup full of lefty hitters, while the Royals are relying primarily on righties like Witt and Salvador Perez.  

Overall, the Royals have a huge advantage on the mound, but with power from top to bottom, the O’s are the stronger offensive team.  

In my mind, whoever wins Game 1 probably wins the series, and with Ragans facing the biggest start of his five-year career off a six-day break, I’m leaning O’s.  

  • Tip: Back the Orioles to Win @ $1.65 
  • Player Pick: Corbin Burnes 6+ Strikeouts 

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, October 1

Tuesday’s Home Run Bets  

Pete Alonso @ Atlanta Braves 

  • Alonso recorded a double off Braves starter Spencer Schwellenback earlier in the year, a hit that registered 93.6 MPH off the bat.  
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, 3:10am  

Truist Park should be rocking on Tuesday for this two-game doubleheader against the rival Mets.  

The math is simple from here: with two Wild Card spots available, a split series would see both sides qualify, while a sweep from either team would be enough for the Diamondbacks to sneak in.  

Betting is a little tricky with both sides keeping their cards close to their chest, and as I write, it looks as though Spencer Schwellenbach is the only confirmed starter for Game 1.  

The Braves’ rookie right-hander is looking to cap off a strong month that has seen him allow only nine combined earned runs across five starts, which includes seven innings of one-run, four strikeout ball against this same Mets lineup last week.  

The fact the Mets are yet to decide on their starters at this point is slightly troubling, especially after Jose Quintana threw on Sunday before David Peterson picked up yesterday’s win over the Brewers.  

In all likelihood, we’ll get Taylor Megill for Game 1 and Luis Severino for Game 2, which plays into Atlanta’s hands given Schwellenback’s dominance over New York this year.  

Throw in the fact closer Edwin Diaz threw nearly 30 pitches in yesterday’s victory, and you’ll suddenly find there are more than a few reasons to feel confident about Atlanta in the first game. 

  • Tip: Back the Braves to Win @ $1.65 
  • Player Pick: Spencer Schwellenback Under Earned Runs Allowed 

Daily MLB Tips – Saturday, September 28

Saturday’s Home Run Bets 

Kyle Schwarber @ Washington Nationals  

  • Schwarber has hit 3 HR already over the last week. He also owns 6 HR against Nats starter Trevor Williams.  

Brandon Lowe @ Boston Red Sox 

  • Lowe owns 3 HR against Nick Pivetta. He’s also gone yard twice over the last seven days. 

Shohei Ohtani @ Colorado Rockies  

  • Ohtani has hit 3 HR during his career at Coors Field. He’s hit 5 HR over the last seven days and has recorded a couple of doubles against Rockies starter, Cal Quantril.  
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals, 8:45am  

The Phillies will have their sights set firmly on the postseason, but having just taken two from three against the Cubs, they are still taking care of business against teams they should be beating.  

The division rival Nationals fall into that category, a team they beat up just over a month ago when they won three out of four games.  

Nats veteran Trevor Williams has been pitching well of late, but he did give up three earned runs to this same Phillies side when they last met.  

Several of the Phillies’ best hitters own solid numbers against the righty, including power hitter Kyle Schwarber, who has recorded 6 HR and Nick Castellanos, who owns 14 hits from 38 plate appearances.  

  • Tip: Back the Phillies to Cover the Line (-1.5 Runs) @ $1.90 
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees, 9:05am  

This looks like a good spot to bet on the Yankees at home.  

Carlos Rodon is likely to take the mound for the Pinstripes hoping to build on last week’s six-inning, four-strike shutout against the A’s in Oakland.  

Rodon has quietly been one of the most reliable pitchers through the month of September, racking up 29 K’s across four starts for the 13th lowest ERA among qualified pitchers.  

Most importantly, the Pirates have struggled all year against left-handed pitching, ranking in the bottom half in walks and runs, and Top 5 in strikeout rate.  

  • Tip: Pirates Under the Run Total  
  • Player Pick: Carlos Rodon Over Strikeout Total  
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers, 10:10am  

It looks as though we’re getting Sean Manaea taking on Frankie Montas for the start of this three-game series between the Mets and Brewers. 

Manaea has been one of the catalysts for New York’s second half turnaround, pitching to a sparkling 2.36 ERA across five starts through the month of September with only four home runs allowed.  

The Mets are also playing off back to back off days due to inclement weather on the East Coast, so it’s worth noting they’ve played to a 9-6 record overall following an off day this year.  

With Manaea’s road splits suggesting he’s a more trustworthy arm away from home than he is at Citi Field, this looks a good spot for him to bounce back from an average outing against the Phillies last week and steer his side to a win. 

  • Tip: Mets to Win @ $1.87 
  • Player Pick: Sean Manaea Over Strikeout Total  

Daily MLB Tips – Friday, September 27

Friday’s Home Run Bets 

Bobby Witt Jr @ Washington Nationals 

  • Witt Jr has taken Patrick Corbin deep once and recorded a double in three plate appearances. 

Anthony Santander @ New York Yankees 

  • Santander is the hot bat in Baltimore’s lineup, smacking 3 HR over the last seven days. He’s struggled against Gerrit Cole, but did manage a double against him earlier in his career registering 94.2 MPH off the bat. 
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10am  

The market looks just about right here between these two American League cellar dwellers.  

Tyler Anderson is on the mound for the Halos making his 31st start, and although he’s been prone to giving up a home run or two over his last five starts, he does draw a slightly favourable matchup against this historically bad White Sox team.  

Chicago’s biggest kryptonite for most of the year has been lefties, currently ranking dead last in runs scored and Top 10 in strikeout rate.  

Anderson’s road starts thios year have been mixed, but if he brings the same stuff he did to Yankee Stadium and more recently, Minute Maid in Houston, he should rack up some K’s in an Angels win. 

  • Tip: Back the Angels to Win @ $1.82 
  • Player Pick: Tyler Anderson Over Strikeout Total  
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, 9:05am 

The Yankees’ lead atop the AL East was shrunk to four games with yesterday’s 9-7 loss, and as the market suggests, this Game 2 matchup is basically a guessing game with star aces Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes on the mound. 

Both righties have been exceptional so far this month, allowing a grand total of one combined earned run with both posting under 10 hits respectively.  

With that in mind, the Under probably stands out as the safest play, especially with Burnes sporting a tidy 2.44 career ERA through the months of September/October.  

  • Tip: Under 7.5 Runs @ $1.90 

 

Daily MLB Tips – Wednesday, September 25

Wednesday’s Home Run Bets  

Shohei Ohtani vs San Diego Padres 

  • Ohtani has taken Padres starter Michael King deep on three occasions in just 12 plate appearances.  

Aaron Judge vs Baltimore Orioles  

  • Likewise, Judge has owned Orioles starter Dean Kremer, hitting 3 HR in 16 plate appearances against the righty.  

Ketel Marte vs San Francisco Giants  

  • Marte owns a HR and a double against Giants veteran Logan Webb, as well as a hit that registered 93 MPH off the bat.  
Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals, 8:45am  

Another Cole Ragans start, another bet on the Royals.  

Kansas City heads to Washington after an off day looking to snap a nasty seven-game losing skid that featured some ugly results over the weekend to the San Francisco Giants.  

It’s the Royals’ second seven-game losing skid this season, but the good news is, at least from a trends perspective, Kansas City has played to a tidy 13-7 record following a day off.  

That said, the Royals have seen over 60% of their games fall Under the Total in this situation, which ties in nicely with the fact they’ve scored only four runs over their last five games.  

Ragans on the mound against a Nats team that ranks 29th in runs scored over the last seven days means we can bet on Washington’s Run Total, but based on KC’s struggles of late, there might be a few worthy plays worth taking here.  

  • Tip: Royals to Win, Nationals Under 3.5 Runs @ $1.75, Under 7.5 Total Runs @ $2.00 
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays, 9:10am  

Not a bad pitching matchup scheduled between these two AL East foes.  

Brayan Bello and Bowden Francis are two of the most promising up and coming young arms in the Majors right now, but the advantage has to go with Toronto’s right-hander given his numbers this year against the Red Sox.  

The 28-year-old hurled seven scoreless innings against Boston only a month ago, striking out five and allowing only one hit with 70 pitches thrown.  

At the same time, Bello has taken on some tough lineups and prevailed over the last fortnight, earning a win in the Bronx and then holding the Rays to just one earned run at Tropicana last week.  

With that in mind, the Under looks a solid play as both sides continue to struggle on the scoreboard over these remaining two weeks.  

  • Tip: Under 7.5 Runs @ $1.82 
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins, 9:40am  

The Marlins and Twins follow a similar script heading into the first of a three-game set on Wednesday.  

Both sides have lost seven of their last 10, including back-to-back games before Tuesday’s day off. 

Minnesota’s Wild Card chances are currently hovering around 54% after enduring three consecutive extra-innings games last week and a pair of walk-off losses to the Guardians.  

Even so, the Twins have a favourable run home, while they are also boosted with superstars Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa returning to the lineup.  

Wednesday’s starter Bailey Ober is prone to giving up runs (3.84 ERA on the year), but he can also rack up the K’s – as we saw last week when he struck out 12 against Cleveland.  

On the flip side, allowing 24 earned runs in just six inter-league starts is concerning, especially against a Marlins side batting .270 as a team over the last week.  

  • Tip: Back the Marlins to Win @ $2.95 
  • Player Pick: Bailey Ober Over Strikeouts Total  

Daily MLB Tips – Tuesday, September 24

Tuesday’s Home Run Bets  

Dansby Swanson @ Philadelphia Phillies 

  • Swanson has hit 2 HR over the last seven days, while he’s also taken Phillies starter deep on three occasions in a large sample of plate appearances.  

Kyle Tucker vs Seattle Mariners 

  • Tucker has been one of Seattle’s hottest hitters over the last week. He’s also taken Bryce Miller deep in the past, a homer that registered 88.8 MPH off the bat. 
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 11:40am  

DBacks nine-year veteran Eduardo Rodriguez has put together two decent starts over the last fortnight, which has me leaning the way of the home side in this one.  

The 31-year-old lefty struck out 11 and allowed only two earned runs at Coors Field last week against the Rockies, a nice performance after holding a dangerous Brewers lineup to a pair of runs a week earlier.  

San Francisco has struggled against southpaws for most of the year, ranking middle of the league in runs scored, and Top 10 in strikeout rate.  

With Giants rookie Hayden Birdsong sporting a rough 5.55 ERA on the road this year, alongside the fact the DBacks have scored the second-most runs over the last seven days, this has all the makings of an Arizona win. 

  • Tip: Back the Diamondbacks to Win & Over 5.5 Runs @ $1.75 
  • Player Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts  

Daily MLB Tips – Saturday, September 21

Saturday’s Home Run Bets 

Spencer Steer vs Pittsburgh Pirates  

  • Steer has gone deep already this week, while he’s also hit a homer and a couple of doubles in 17 plate appearances against Pirates right-hander, Mitch Keller.  

Trea Turner @ New York Mets  

  • Turner has hit 7 HR against left-handed pitching this year. He’s also recorded a pair of doubles against Mets starter David Peterson across16 plate appearances. His hardest hit was 99.1 MPH off the bat.  

Tommy Edman vs Colorado Rockies  

  • Edman has owned Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, taking him deep twice to go with a pair of doubles over just 12 plate appearances. 
Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs, 4:20am  

The Cubs came through with a clutch 7-6 win over the Nationals yesterday, and they look a decent bet to make it two in a row with James Taillon on the mound on Saturday.  

Taillon has easily been one of the safest arms to bet on over the last month, giving up only three earned runs in as many starts with just three walks and a home run allowed.  

This young Nationals lineup is loaded with powerful hitters looking to prove a point toward the back end of the season, but with Taillon dealing, the Cubs just need to give him some run support to keep themselves above .500.  

  • Tip: Back the Cubs to Win  
  • Player Pick: Jameson Taillon Under Earned Runs Total Allowed  
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers, 10:10am  

On the same note as Taillon, you’d be hard pressed to find a better arm since the start of September than Zac Gallen’s.  

A major contender in the NL Cy Young race last year, Gallen has turned his season around at the right time for the Snakes, posting a 1.69 ERA over his last three starts – with the only earned runs allowed coming against this same Brewers lineup last week.  

Earlier in the year, Gallen proved vulnerable on the road, but it’s worth noting his last two starts away from home (@ Fenway and @ Oracle Park) have both been shutouts.  

Coming off a 5-1 loss to the DBacks on Friday, I’m with Arizona to make another statement here in this potential postseason preview. 

  • Tip: Back the DBacks to Win @ $1.75 
  • Player Pick: Zac Gallen Over Strikeout Total  
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers, 10:10am  

Jacob deGrom is making his second start of the season for the Rangers after blanking this same Mariners team across 3.2 innings last week.  

The two-time Cy Young winner was kept on a pitch limit, and isn’t likely to throw more than a maximum of five innings on Saturday.  

That said, deGrom finished with four strikeouts and as many hits allowed, and while he personally graded the performance a ‘C’, he did showcase his usual arsenal of pitches quite well.  

Like last week, the Mariners rank Top 10 in strikeout rate and toward the bottom of the league in runs scored. So if deGrom brings the same stuff on the mound, we could be looking at a Rangers win.  

  • Tip: Back the Rangers to Win @ $1.87 
  • Player Pick: Jacob deGrom Under Earned Runs Total Allowed