Tuesday, October 8

Tuesday, October 8

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros, 4:05 am
Astros $1.65

Tampa Bay Rays

It hasn’t been a great start to the post-season for Tampa, who lost both games in Houston relatively comfortably. Their offence just couldn’t get going, managing just 3 total runs in 18 innings of action. They were a solid but unspectacular home team this year, compiling a 48-33 record. Charlie Morton is slated to pitch here, going 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA through 192 innings.

Houston Astros

Houston continued their excellent season with 2 comfortable home wins to start off. While the main story has been the pitching staff, both Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve have impressed offensively. They will now venture on the road, where they went 47-34 during the regular season. Zack Greinke is slated to pitch here, going an impressive 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA since joining Houston mid-season.

Prediction: Astros $1.65

I’ve rarely strayed from the Astros this season and can see them clinching a sweep in this spot. Greinke is as good as it gets for a #3 pitcher and I expect him to put the clamps on Tampa’s offence here. Morton is also very solid at this level, although Houston’s batters aren’t a great matchup for him. Ultimately, Houston has the talent edge offensively; which should prove enough here.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees, 11:40 am
Twins $2.30

Minnesota Twins

Despite a ton of optimism coming into this post-season, the Twins are also facing an 0-2 deficit. They haven’t been competitive in either game so far, losing both by 6 runs. Their home record is actually worse than their road record this season, where they’re just 46-35. Jake Odorizzi returns to pitch here, going 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA through 159 innings.

New York Yankees

Baseball’s glamour side have started the post-season very well, earning 2 comfortable home wins. The offence has been particularly impressive, with DJ LeMahieu leading the way to 18 runs this series. They now have to travel away from Yankee Stadium, looking to build on their 46-35 road record. Luis Severino will pitch here, going 1-1 with a 1.5 ERA in just 12 innings this season.

Prediction: Twins $2.30

Getting that 3rd win when up 2-0 is never easy, especially against an opponent like Minnesota. Not only do the Twins have a raucous home crowd, they’ve also got a notable edge in the starting pitcher battle. Odorizzi has been remarkably consistent this season, while Severino has been largely untested. Minnesota has the talent offensively to get after him here and at least push this series to 4 games.

Monday, October 7

St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves, 7:10 am
Braves

St Louis Cardinals

Despite not having home field for the series, the Cardinals managed a 1-1 split in their two road games. They managed an impressive 7-6 win in the series opener, before falling 3-0 last time out. Marcell Ozuna looks like the key man offensively, managing 2 clutch RBI in the opening game win. Adam Wainwright is probable to pitch here, going 14-10 with a 4.19 ERA through 171 innings so far.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves entered this series as the better side and will be slightly disappointed to not win both home games. They’ve fortunately been a very strong road side this season, going 47-34 away from Atlanta. Their recent form hasn’t been all that great, with just 4 wins in 10 a cause for some concern. Mike Soroka will pitch here, sporting an impressive 13-4 record with a 2.68 ERA this season.

Prediction: Braves

Game 3 is absolutely pivotal with the series tied 1-1 and I have to give the edge to what I believe is the better side. Soroka has been one of the better pitchers in the league this season and I can’t see this offence giving him much trouble. Wainwright, on the other hand, has been largely inconsistent and could definitely struggle here. Combine that with a deep hitting lineup and impressive road form and I like Atlanta on the road.

Washington Nationals vs LA Dodgers, 10:45 am
Under 8

Washington Nationals

The Nats did what they had to do in LA, managing an impressive split of the first two. After a fairly poor showing in a 6-0 opening defeat, they rebounded nicely to claim a 4-2 upset. They return home where they’ve largely been a much better side, putting up a 51-31 record on the season. Ace Max Scherzer will be back for this one, going 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA through 172 innings.

LA Dodgers

Despite an outstanding 106-56 record, the Dodgers have already lost home field in this series. They just weren’t at the races last time out, with a strong pitching night from Strasburg holding them to just 2 runs. The road hasn’t really bothered this side all season though, compiling a respectable 47-34 record so far. Hyun-Jin Ryu is probable to pitch here, going 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA through 182 innings.

Prediction: Under 8

In Scherzer and Ryu, we have two of the best pitchers in the league here. While both offences have elite talent at the top, their depth has been questionable at times. The evening conditions in Washington tend to favour the pitchers also, which will increase the difficulty for hitters. Especially with the push on our side at 8, I think a low-scoring affair here is more than likely.

Sunday, October 6

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins, 8:07 am
Yankees

New York Yankees

The Yankees got off to an impeccable post-season start with a 10-4 win in game 1 last time out. 1st Baseman DJ LeMahieu continued his strong regular season, leading the team with 3 hits and 4 RBI. Pitcher James Paxton was also largely very solid, managing 8 strikeouts in just under 5 innings. Ace Masahiro Tanaka will pitch here, going 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA through 182 innings this season.

Minnesota Twins

It was a far from ideal post-season start for Minnesota, who opened their campaign with a 10-4 defeat. Short Stop Jorge Polanco was the only one to offer any resistance offensively, going for 2 hits and 2 RBI in 3 at-bats. While starter Jose Berrios was decent, a poor outing from the bullpen resulted in 9 runs conceded in the last 4 innings. They are yet to announce a probable pitcher for this one.

Prediction: Yankees

Despite picking against the Yankees yesterday, I was very much impressed with their opening performance. Their offence looked especially good, with the competent LeMahieu leading the way. I expect this dominance to continue with Minnesota’s pitching woes, which is why New York look like solid value here.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays, 12:07 pm
Astros -1.5

Houston Astros

Currently my favourites for the world series, Houston started their post-season with a comfortable 6-2 win over Tampa. Verlander continued doing Verlander things, striking out 8 and allowing 0 earned runs through 7 innings. Jose Altuve was impressive with the bat, providing a calming presence and 2 clutch RBI. Gerrit Cole will pitch here, going 20-5 with a 2.5 ERA through 212 innings this season.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa fought valiantly in game 1, but it wasn’t enough in a 6-2 defeat. They just couldn’t get anything going offensively, managing just 5 hits as a team. The bullpen didn’t perform well either, which should prove problematic going forward. Blake Snell is slated to pitch here, going 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA through 108 innings.

Prediction: Astros -1.5

If anyone has pitched better than Verlander this season, it’s Gerrit Cole. He has been outstanding at home all season and comes up against a lineup lacking in firepower. Blake Snell has been far from stellar of late and I think his struggles continue here as Houston wins comfortably.

Saturday, October 5

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays, 4:05 am
Astros $1.50

Houston Astros

The Astros have home field here after a stellar regular season saw them win 107 games. They were an outstanding 60-21 at home this season, winning 8 of their final 10 games. Alex Bregman has been their main man on offence all year, going for 41 home runs and 112 RBI overall. Justin Verlander is slated to pitch here, going an outstanding 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA through 223 innings.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays earned their place here after an impressive win over Oakland in the wildcard round. They won 5-1 on the road, with 2 RBI from Yandy Diaz and Avi Garcia proving the difference. Charlie Morton actually got the start there, allowing 0 earned through 5 solid innings. They’ll go back to ace Tyler Glasnow for this one, who sports a 16-6 record with a 3.05 ERA so far.

Prediction: Astros $1.50

Based on their body of work throughout the entire season, you can make a strong case that Houston is the best side in the majors. Justin Verlander has been absolutely outstanding and nearly unbeatable at home. Their batting lineup is also much stronger than Tampa’s, with several more threats to make a big play. Combine all of these factors and I like Houston to get their post-season off to a winning start.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins, 9:07 am
Twins $2.65

New York Yankees

The Yankees are deserving of home field here, after an outstanding regular season saw them win 103 games. Their home field was an absolute fortress all season, with the team compiling a 57-24 record at Yankee Stadium. Gleyber Torres put up a very solid 38 home runs, while DJ LeMahieu led the side with 102 RBI. James Paxton is slated to pitch here, going 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA through 150 innings.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota have been no slouches either, narrowly missing out on home field with 101 wins on the season. They are an outstanding 55-26 on the road this season, winning 8 of their last 10 overall. Designated Hitter Nelson Cruz is the man to watch offensively, going for 41 home runs and 108 RBI on the season. Jose Berrios will pitch in this one, sporting a 14-8 record with a 3.68 ERA through 200 innings.

Prediction: Twins $2.65

Having picked mostly favourites this post-season, I like Minnesota to cause somewhat of an upset here. They are one of the best road sides in the majors and have been in significantly better recent form than the Yankees. I also have been very impressed with Jose Berrios this season and expect him to contain New York here. As long as Cruz and Co can fire offensively, they are great value at $2.65.

Friday, October 4

Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals, 7:02 am
Braves $1.70

Atlanta Braves

The Braves enter the post-season after an excellent regular season that saw them go 97-65. They were an outstanding 50-31 at home, despite fading to win just 4 of their last 10 overall. Ronald Acuna Junior leads the side with 41 home runs, while the consistent Freddie Freeman has an impressive team-leading 121 RBI. Dallas Keuchel is slated to pitch here, going 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA through 112 innings.  

St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have been anything but slackers this season, winning their division with a 91-71 regular season record. They were a respectable 41-40 in road games, going 6-4 in their last 10. Paul Goldschmidt was their main man offensively, playing in 161 games and putting up 34 homers and 97 RBI. Miles Mikolas will pitch in this one, going 9-14 with a 4.16 ERA through 184 innings.

Prediction: Braves $1.70

Ultimately, I think Atlanta has a number of small matchup advantages across the field here. They’ve got a deeper and more versatile batting lineup that has really performed well. Similarly, Keuchel has also significantly outduelled his opposite number over the course of the season. Combine that with St Louis being just a mediocre side on the road and I think the $1.70 on offer is great value.

LA Dodgers vs Washington Nationals, 10:37 am
Dodgers $1.60

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers waltz into the post-season after an outstanding 106-56 regular season. They went 59-22 at Dodger Stadium and closed the season with 8 wins in their last 10. Cody Bellinger was elite from start to finish, leading the way with 47 home runs and 115 RBI. Walker Buehler will pitch in this one, going a solid 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA through 181 innings.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals more than earned their way here after a dramatic win in the wildcard game over Milwaukee. They were down from start to finish, until a 3-run homer from Juan Soto in the 8th got them over the line. They’re a middling 43-38 on the road this season, although a 9-1 run indicates they’re in very good form. Pat Corbin is slated to pitch here, going 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA through 202 innings so far.

Prediction: Dodgers $1.60

While the Nats have had a great second half of the season, they still aren’t on the Dodgers’ level. Dodger Stadium has been an absolute fortress this season and the Dodgers also have had more time to rest up and study their opponents. I think they’ve got the better batting lineup and that Walker Buehler has been nearly unplayable at home. I can’t see Washington scoring enough in this one, making LA a good bet to start 1-0 at home.

AL Wildcard Showdown

Oakland A’s vs Tampa Bay Rays, 10:09 am
A's $1.75

Oakland A’s

Oakland gets to host this wildcard game after an impressive regular season that saw them finish 97-65. They’re 52-29 at home on the season, managing 6 wins in their last 10 overall. Short Stop Marcus Semien has been very impressive, playing in all 162 games and leading the team with 92 RBI. Matt Chapman and Matt Olson have both also chimed in offensively, tied for the team-lead with 36 home runs. Sean Manaea is slated to pitch here, going 4-0 so far with a 1.21 ERA through 29.2 innings of action.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa are no slouches either, finishing just 1 game behind their opponents at 96-66. They are a very respectable 48-33 on the road, winning 7 of their last 10 overall. Right Fielder Austin Meadows is comfortably their best offensive threat, leading the team with 33 home runs and 89 RBI. Ace Charlie Morton will pitch here, sporting a strong 16-6 record with a 3.05 ERA through 196 innings.

Prediction: A’s $1.75

This is a matchup between two fairly well-rounded teams, although Oakland has slightly less weaknesses. Both of these starting pitchers have had exceptional seasons and it should be a low scoring affair here. The difference is that Oakland has enough hitters to try and get after Morton here and should put some runs on the board. Tampa are so heavily reliant on Meadows, with no other player eclipsing either 21 home runs or 72 RBI. Combine that with an outstanding home field advantage for Oakland and I think the $1.75 currently on offer is great value.

NL Wildcard Showdown

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers, 10:08 am
Nationals $1.60

Washington Nationals

The Nationals get home field here for having the top wildcard position, buoyed by an impressive 93-69 record this season. They’ve been a very strong 50-31 at home so far, also winning 9 of their last 10 games. 3rd Baseman Anthony Rendon has had a particularly impressive season, going for 34 home runs and a team-leading 126 RBI. Left Fielder Juan Soto has been just behind him, putting up 34 home runs of his own to go with 110 RBI. Ace Max Scherzer is slated to get the start here, sporting an excellent 11-7 record with a 2.92 ERA through 172 innings this season.

Milwaukee Brewers

A respectable season from Milwaukee sees them second in the wildcard race after an 89-73 regular season record. They actually had a negative 40-41 road record this season, although they did manage 7 wins in their last 10. Christian Yelich had an outstanding start to the season, however his late injury really hampers their offence. Mike Moustakas is the next man up, having totalled 35 home runs and 87 RBI through 143 games. Brandon Woodruff will get the start here, having gone an impressive 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA through 121 innings.

Prediction: Nationals $1.60

While this is an incredibly high stakes game, all the signs point to a comfortable Washington win. They’ve been a dynamite home side all season and have been in particularly good form of late. They also possess two star sluggers at the top of the order, which should really help the offence propel forward. Max Scherzer is also one of the better pitchers in the league and should comfortably contain an offence without Yelich. I like what Woodruff has shown for Milwaukee this season, but I just don’t see it being enough against this soaring Nats side.

Monday, September 30

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves, 5:10 am
Braves

New York Mets

An average season sees the Mets first in their division at 85-76. They are 46-33 at home this season, managing a decent 7 wins in their last 10. Pete Alonso continues to be the main man offensively, going for 53 home runs and 120 RBI this season. Noah Syndergaard is slated to pitch here, going 10-8 with a 4.3 ERA through 190 innings.

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta are gearing up for the playoffs after a strong 97-64 record put them in first place. They are 47-32 on the road this season, with just 4 wins in their last 10 overall. Freddie Freeman is having another solid season, putting up 38 home runs and 121 RBI so far. Mike Soroka will pitch here, going 13-4 with a 2.6 ERA through 137 innings.

Prediction: Braves

This represents a great opportunity for Atlanta to have a final tune-up before the playoffs. Soroka has been an outstanding pitcher all season and really gives them the matchup advantage here. They’ve also got a wealth of talent offensively, which should be able to get after the inconsistent Syndergaard.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins, 5:10 am
Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies find themselves 81-80, handing them fourth place in their division. They’re a decent 45-35 at home this season, despite winning just 2 of their last 10 overall. Bryce Harper is their main man offensively, going for 35 home runs and 114 RBI so far. A probable starting pitcher has not yet been named for this one.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins are currently last in their division at 56-105. They’re 26-54 on the road, going 4-6 over their last 10 overall. Castro is their main man on offence, putting up 21 home runs and 85 RBI so far. Sandy Alcantara will pitch here, going 5-14 with a 3.95 ERA through 191 innings.

Prediction: Phillies

Philly have been a decent home side this year, while Miami continue to be one of the worst road ones. The season is all but over for both of these sides but I expect Philly to be more motivated to treat their home fans to a final win. Combine that with the talent edge on both offence and defence and they should win this comfortably.

Sunday, September 29

St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs, 9:15 am
Cardinals

St Louis Cardinals

A solid season sees the Cardinals first in their division at 90-70. They are 49-29 at home this season, managing a decent 7 wins in their last 10. Paul Goldschmidt continues to be the main man offensively, going for 33 home runs and 95 RBI this season. Adam Wainwright is slated to pitch here, going 14-9 with a 3.98 ERA through 167 innings.

Chicago Cubs

Chicago now find themselves third in their division at 83-77. They are 31-47on the road this season, with just 1 win in their last 10 overall. Kyle Schwarber is having another solid season, putting up 37 home runs and 91 RBI so far. Cole Hamels will pitch here, going 7-7 with a 3.92 ERA through 137 innings.

Prediction: Cardinals

The Cardinals are one of a few sides in baseball with a ton to play for right now. They face a completely out of form Cubs side with a chance to cement the #1 spot in their division. Wainwright has been an excellent pitcher at home for his whole career and I expect him to do enough to seal the win here.

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers, 10:10 am
Brewers

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies find themselves 69-91, good for fifth place in their division. They’re a decent 41-38 at home this season, winning 4 of their last 10 overall. Nolan Arenado is their main man offensively, going for 41 home runs and 118 RBI so far. Chi Chi Gonzalez will pitch here, going 2-6 with a 5.68 ERA this season.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are currently second in their division at 82-77. They’re 40-39 on the road, going a strong 8-2 over their last 10. Christian Yelich is their main man on offence, putting up 44 home runs and 97 RBI so far. Brandon Woodruff will pitch here, going 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA through 121 innings.

Prediction: Brewers

The Brewers are another side with real playoff implications here and should have a motivational edge. Colorado has been decent at home this season but their form has faded considerably compared to Milwaukee’s I think they’ve got a huge edge in the pitching department here, which should ultimately prove the difference in a Milwaukee win.

Saturday, September 28

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays, 9:05 am
Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

A poor season sees the Blue Jays fourth in their division at 65-94. They are just 34-45 at home this season, managing a decent 7 wins in their last 10. Randal Grichuk continues to be the main man offensively, going for 31 home runs and 79 RBI this season. T.J. Zeuch is slated to pitch here, going 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA through 17 innings.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay now find themselves second in their division at 95-64. They are 47-31 on the road this season, with 7 wins in their last 10 overall. Austin Meadows is having another solid season, putting up 32 home runs and 88 RBI so far. Tyler Glasnow will pitch here, going 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA through 56 innings.

Prediction: Rays

The season is over for Toronto, while Tampa still have a ton of playoff implications. Glasnow has been one of the better pitchers in the league of late, while Zeuch doesn’t have a great track record. Tampa also has the deeper and more versatile offence, which should prove enough to win here.

St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs, 10:15 am
Cardinals

St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals find themselves 90-69, good for third place in their division. They’re a strong 49-29 at home this season, winning 7 of their last 10 overall. Paul Goldschmidt is their main man offensively, going for 33 home runs and 95 RBI so far. Dakota Hudson will pitch here, going 16-7 with a 3.45 ERA this season.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are currently third in their division at 82-77. They’re a poor 31-46 on the road, going 2-8 over their last 10. Kyle Schwarber is their main man on offence, putting up 37 home runs and 91 RBI so far. They’re yet to announce a starting pitcher for this one.

Prediction: Cardinals

The Cardinals are still jockeying for playoff positioning, while a poor run from Chicago has taken them out of the mix. Hudson has been incredibly consistent this season, particularly in front of an excellent home crowd. With better talent across the board, more motivation, and a strong home field, I really like St Louis here.