Houston Astros

The Astros did what they needed to do on the road, winning both matches to take control of this series. George Springer and Carlos Correa were particularly solid last time out, both registering 3 RBI in the comfortable win. They return home here for a potential close-out game at a place where they’ve won 75% of games this season. Justin Verlander is slated to pitch here, having built on his 20-5 regular season with some excellent post-season games so far.

New York Yankees

While things looked bright for the Yankees after game 1, 3 straight losses mean it looks like they’ll fall short yet again. Although their pitching hasn’t been great this series, the real problem has been their ineptitude on offence. This won’t be helped by playing on the road, where they’ve been noticeably worse this season. James Paxton has been one of their better pitchers this season and he at least gives them a fighting chance here.

Prediction: Astros

Having won 3 straight, the Astros can certainly taste another trip to the World Series. They’ve been an outstanding home side this season and have one of the league’s best pitchers on their side. I’ve also been impressed by their offence throughout this series and think they’ve dramatically outperformed their counterparts. They definitely don’t want another trip to New York, making me think they leave it all on the line here.

This series has tended to eb and flow offensively between games. In such a high stakes game, I’m expecting two consistent veteran pitchers to deliver here. Verlander rarely gets carted and Paxton needs a strong display for New York to have a chance. Throw in that Houston’s stadium lends itself to unders and that his should be a relatively close affair, under 7.5 starts to look mighty good.

New York Yankees

The Yankees finally went behind in a playoff series, falling 4-1 to go down 2-1 on the series. The offence struggled against Gerrit Cole, managing just 5 hits and 1 run on the afternoon. While solid, the pitching department will need to be better here to match up with Houston’s. Although the pitching rotation is somewhat in flux, I’d expect Masahiro Tanaka to pitch here after 4 days of rest.

Houston Astros

The Astros have looked very impressive the last two games, taking control of the series with a 2-1 lead. Gerrit Cole was predictably excellent, striking out 7 batters and allowing 0 runs through 7 innings. Jose Altuve also continued his fine form with the bat, going for 2 hits, 2 runs, and an RBI for good measure. Having gone to essentially a 3-man rotation this post-season, I’d expect Zack Greinke to get the nod here.

Prediction: Yankees

While New York haven’t looked great the past two games, a lot of that has to do with coming up against Verlander and Cole. Although also a very capable pitcher, Greinke has looked like the weak link of that 3 since being acquired mid-season. The Yankees are also an elite home side, winning roughly 75% of games at Yankee Stadium this season. Especially with a game 5 against Verlander in Houston on deck, I think their season is very much on the line here. As such, I expect a highly motivated and professional display where they ultimately get the job done.

New York Yankees

The Yankees had a real opportunity to go 2-0 up last time out, ultimately falling in extra innings. They just couldn’t get things going offensively, with Aaron Judge the only man to register any RBI. They’ve tended to be a much better home side all season and admittedly did what they needed to do to get a road split. Luis Severino will pitch here, having gone 1-1 with a 1.5 ERA during limited action this season.

Houston Astros

The Astros potentially saved their season last time out, overcoming an early deficit to avoid going into a 0-2 hole. Verlander was predictably outstanding on the mound, allowing just 2 runs and striking out 7 in almost 7 innings. They’re still a solid 48-35 on the road this season, although New York is a very tough place to play. The beastly Gerrit Cole will pitch here, entering this one off a 20-5 record with a 2.5 ERA through over 200 innings.

Prediction: Astros $1.60

Much like Verlander, Gerrit Cole has been easily one of the best pitchers in the league this season. I expect him to outclass a solid Yankees batting line-up here, performing much better than his opposite number. I’m not particularly confident in Severino and can see the Astros getting after him here. In what shapes up as a pivotal game 3, the pitching mismatch has me really liking Houston here.

Washington Nationals

The Nats moved to an impressive 3-0 in this series last time out, dominating St Louis en route to an 8-1 win. 2^nd Baseman Howie Kendrick was particularly good offensively, going for 2 hits and 3 RBI. They now get to have a potentially series-clinching game 4 at home, where they’ve excelled all season. Patrick Corbin will pitch here, going 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA during over 200 innings of action this season.

St Louis Cardinals

The Cards’ hopes of a World Series birth look all but dashed after a terrible game 3 performance. Their offence was terrible yet again, while their pitching was the worst of the series so far. They haven’t been a good road team all season, sporting just a .500 away record in 2019. Dakota Hudson will pitch here, going 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 175 innings of action

Prediction: Nationals $1.60

St Louis have an absolute mountain to climb here, while Washington can get themselves some much-needed rest before the World Series. The starting pitchers are relatively even here, although Washington’s offence is significantly better so far. They’ve also got an excellent home field advantage, while St Louis’ road struggles have been well documented. The Cards have looked somewhat lifeless and unmotivated of late and I expect them to be put out of their misery here.  

Washington Nationals

The Nationals were hugely impressive in their 2 road games to start the season, stealing both in low-scoring wins. Scherzer and Sanchez were both outstanding in the pitching department, leading the team to just 1 run conceded all series. Adam Eaton also stepped up offensively, managing 2 key RBI in game 2 that made all the difference. The good pitching looks set to continue here, with Stephen Strasburg’s 18-6 record and 3.32 ERA taking the mound.

St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have an absolute mountain to climb after the first two games, failing to win either clash at home. Their offence very clearly went missing, with just 4 combined hits in both games. They were just 41-40 on the road during the regular season, although did manage 2 huge road wins in Atlanta during the divisional round. Jack Flaherty is slated to pitch here, sporting a solid 11-8 record with 2 2.75 ERA through 196 innings.

Prediction: Under 7.5 Runs

Neither offence has performed well to start this series, with only 6 combined runs during the first 2 games. I’d argue there is even more pitching talent in this one, with both Strasburg and Flaherty impressing during the regular season. Neither side has huge depth offensively, with 1 or 2 key players on each side having to carry a huge offensive load. Washington isn’t a great park for hitters either, adding to the list of factors that make me fancy the under here.

Houston Astros

The Astros had a very poor start to the ALCS, losing home field in a disappointing 7-0 defeat. Their offence couldn’t get going at all, managing only 3 hits against the in-form Tanaka. Despite yesterday’s loss, they are still an elite home side, sporting an impressive 63-22 home record. Ace Justin Verlander is back on the mound, having gone 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA through 223 innings this season.

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been very impressive during these playoffs, winning their fourth straight contest and taking home field. Gleyber Torres was outstanding, leading the team with 3 hits and a further 5 RBI. New York are solid although still beatable on the road, now sporting a 48-35 record for the year. James Paxton is slated to pitch here, having gone 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA through 150 innings this season.

Prediction: Astros $1.60

With two games coming up in New York, the Astros season is essentially on the line at home in this one. Fortunately, they’ve got probably the best pitcher in the league on their side, with Verlander being in fine form of late. After a relatively disappointing display yesterday, I think their offence gets back on track here against a relatively inconsistent Paxton. Houston has been great straight up and against the run line at home all season and I expect them to prove profitable again for bettors in this crucial spot.

St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals had a relatively poor opener to the NLCS, losing 2-0 at home in a poor offensive display. This wasted a solid pitching display from Miles Mikolas, who struck out 7 and allowed just 1 earned run through 6 innings. Despite the blip yesterday, St Louis are still a fairly impressive 52-32 at home on the season. Adam Wainwright is slated to pitch here, going 14-10 with a 4.19 ERA through 171 innings so far.

Washington Nationals

Washington’s hot run continued, stealing game 1 on the road behind an outstanding Anibal Sanchez pitching display. Kendrick and Gomes came through offensively, both managing a key RBI that ultimately proved to be the difference. Although they were an average road side during the regular season, the Nats are now 3-1 on the road during the playoffs. Ace Max Scherzer will pitch in this one, looking to build off an excellent regular and postseason so far.

Prediction: Cardinals $2.20

It’s tough to fade Scherzer and the Nationals right now but St Louis is playing for their season here. Lose this one and I don’t see how they get past Strasburg in Washington for game 3. I think the $2.20 on offer is also fairly generous, representing a significant line movement from game 1. Washington could be complacent after doing their job on the road here and I think the Cards’ motivation edge pushes them over the top.

Houston Astros

The Astros were finally able to close out Tampa, winning by an impressive 6-1 scoreline in game 5. Altuve and Bregman finished as strong as they started, both registering 2 key RBI. They are now 63-21 at home for the season, having won 7 of their last 10 games overall. Zack Greinke is slated to pitch here, having gone 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA through 62 innings.

New York Yankees

The Yankees enjoyed a very comfortable divisional series, sweeping a strong Minnesota side 3-0. Didi Gregorious had perhaps the highlight play of the divisional round, an epic grand slam to close out game 2. A strong 5-1 win in their lone road game gives them 5 days of quality rest before this one. The Yankees aren’t the same side on the road as they are at home, only going 47-35 away this season.

Prediction: Yankees $2.40

I think the Yankees steal one of these road games and game 1 looks like the perfect opportunity. They have a significant rest advantage here and Houston may have an emotional letdown after an epic game 5. Zack Greinke also didn’t look particularly good in his last start and could struggle against a diverse Yankees offence. This is purely a value play, with the $2.40 on offer for New York way over the odds in my opinion.

St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals now find themselves hosting the ALCS after an outstanding game 5 saw them beat Atlanta 13-1 on the road. They were very impressive offensively during that series; Marcell Ozuna leading the way with 2 hits and 5 RBI. They get to return home here, a place where they sport a very impressive 51-32 record. I expect Adam Wainwright to get the start here, having gone 14-10 with a 4.19 ERA through 171 innings.

Washington Nationals

The Nats pulled an epic upset over the Dodgers in the Divisional series, winning the last two games to take the series 3-1. Juan Soto led the way for an impressive offence, putting up 2 home runs and 6 RBI during the series. Although they weren’t great on the road during the regular season, 2 road wins in LA suggests they can beat anybody. I expect Anibal Sanchez to get the start in this one, sporting an impressive 11-8 record with a 3.85 ERA through 166 innings.

Prediction: Cardinals

Both sides come into this game flying high, although I can see a let down for Washington after such an emotional win in LA. St Louis are an incredibly consistent home side with strong starting pitchers and a great supporting bullpen. Although Washington have been good on the road of late, they’ve been heavily reliant on Scherzer and Strasburg, neither of which will pitch here. When combining the home field advantage with an edge in the pitching department, I can’t look past St Louis.

Tying in with the above prediction, I’m expecting a solid day offensively from St Louis in this one. Their hitters tend to perform very well at home and won’t be getting one of the top Washington pitchers here. Both sides showed great offensive touch in their first round series and I see no reason why that won’t continue. Especially at near even money, I think the over 7.5 here is definitely a +EV play.

Houston Astros

After going out to an early 2-0 lead in this series, Houston just couldn’t close it out in their 2 tilts on the road. They just couldn’t put up the runs last time out, scoring just 1 in a disappointing 4-1 defeat. They get to return home here, where they’ve put up an outstanding 62-21 record in a truly dominant season. They’ll also get Gerrit Cole back pitching here, who sports an elite 20-5 regular season record and went 1-0 earlier this series.

Tampa Bay Rays

No-one gave Tampa much of a shot this series, yet they now find themselves in an elimination game for a spot in the ALCS. They protected home field particularly well, winning games 3 and 4 by a combined score of 14-4. While Houston is a very tough place to play, they’ve been a respectable 49-35 on the road this season. Tyler Glasnow is slated to pitch again here, coming off an impressive but limited 6-1 regular season.

Prediction: Astros -1.5

Having lost their last two games, many backers would be hesitant to go three in a row with Houston here. However, this team is a truly elite home side that should give their all with their backs against the wall. Cole is an outstanding option to have pitching and I expect him to really limit this Tampa offence. With the $1.36 moneyline price not providing elite value, Houston -1.5 looks good value at current odds.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have had a relatively mixed series so far, ultimately splitting in St Louis to go home for a decider. They couldn’t get things done in game 4, falling just short en route to a 5-4 defeat. Despite sporting an impressive 52-31 home record for the season, they’ve only managed 3 wins in their last 10 overall. Mike Foltynewicz will pitch here, going 8-6 with a 4.54 ERA through 117 innings this season.

St Louis Cardinals

The Cards fought for their season last time out, ultimately coming from behind to win 5-4 in a 10-inning thriller. Marcell Ozuna continued to be the man offensively, adding a team-leading 2 hits and 2 RBI. St Louis haven’t been as successful on the road this season, only managing a 42-41 record so far. Jack Flaherty will pitch here, going a strong 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA through 196 innings.

Prediction: Braves $1.88

The Braves have been the better of these two sides throughout the season and have a strong home field advantage here. They’ll definitely be motivated after coming so close in game 4 and have the deeper of the two batting lineups. While Flaherty has put up better numbers than Foltynewicz, Mike has looked particularly good at home of late. This should ultimately be a tight affair, but I believe some poor recent form from Atlanta actually undervalues them here.

LA Dodgers

Even after an outstanding 106-56 record this season, the Dodgers still find themselves just one game away from elimination. After an impressive road win in game 3, they were contained nicely by Max Scherzer in a 6-1 game 4 loss. They’ve been a different team at home all season though, going 60-23 at Dodger Stadium. Walker Buehler is tasked with pitching here, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA through 182 innings.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals have rebounded from a sloppy start to be a very competitive team all season. They’ve matched the Dodgers all series long, playing some quality baseball to level things up at 2. Rendon and Zimmerman were absolutely clutch last time out, combining for all 6 RBI in a huge performance. Stephen Strasburg is back on the mound here, going 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA through 209 innings this season.

Prediction: Dodgers $1.65

Given the incredible season they’ve had, I can’t back against the Dodgers in this critical spot. They are a truly elite home side, while Washington are a very middling 44-39 on the road. Walker Buehler is also as good as they come at starting pitcher and can more than match Strasburg here. I ultimately think guys like Bellinger, Muncy, and Pederson make the difference here as the Dodgers get over the line at a reasonable $1.65.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays got on the board in this series with their season on the line last time out. They put up an impressive 10 runs in total, with 3 RBI from Kevin Keirmaier proving invaluable. They’re now 49-33 at home for the season, winning 6 of their last 10 overall. They haven’t announced a starting pitcher for this one, largely due to rotation issues caused by their wildcard game last week.

Houston Astros

Game 3’s can definitely be difficult to close out on the road and Houston definitely felt that last time out. Zack Greinke was uncharacteristically poor, allowing 6 earned runs before being yanked during the fourth. The offence couldn’t get things going either, with 2 RBI from Yuri Gurriel their only real resistance. Justin Verlander is slated to pitch again here, having already delivered a dominant performance in game 1.

Prediction: Astros

I’ve rarely strayed from Houston all season and it has largely served me well. Although they had a poor defeat yesterday, this side responds very well to adversity. They’ve got the depth and versatility offensively to break out at any time and have a huge pitching edge here. With 8 wins in their last 10, I think yesterday’s loss is just a minor blip as they take the series on the road here.

With just one game on the slate today, I’ll also go for a secondary pick in the run line market. Especially with Verlander on the mound, I’m really liking the look of under 7.5 at near even money. JV continues to be one of the best pitchers in the league and I expect him to really contain Tampa’s offence here. The under is 37-45 in Tampa home games this season, indicative of it being a relatively tough place to hit.