Tuesday, August 11

Tuesday, August 11

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves, 8:10 am
Braves $2.35

I’m liking the underdog Braves in this one, currently at tasty $2.35 odds.

Philly have had an incredibly disjointed season thus far and are only 4-6 in the games they’ve actually played.

Atlanta have looked far more competent this season, going 11-6 through 17 with a plus 27 run differential.

The Braves pitching staff has looked quite impressive during this series, containing Philly to an average of under 3 runs a game.

I don’t mind the pitching matchup for them here either, with Sean Newcomb returning to the mound.

He hasn’t had the best season so far, which is why I assume they’re such large underdogs, but I’ll trust his career record over this small sample.

I’m also liking what I’m seeing from the Atlanta batting lineup, especially the top 4 in Acuna, Swanson, Freeman, and Ozuna.

In what I think is a coin-flip game, I’ll gladly take 35 cents of value on Atlanta.

LA Angels vs Oakland Athletics, 11:40 am
A's $1.77

I’ve had decent success this season fading the Angels, a trend which I’m hoping will continue here.

They sit dead last in the American League, with a poor 5-11 record from their first 16.

Oakland actually find themselves atop the conference after an impressive start, going 12-4 with a plus 23 run differential.

They enter this clash in red hot form, winning their last 9 games, including a sweep over Houston last time out.

Despite all these factors, the A’s are just $1.77 favourites, which definitely looks like great value.

The market likely doesn’t have too much confidence in Oakland pitcher Sean Manaea, who hasn’t started the season well.

That said, his career numbers indicate that he’s a good pitcher at this level and I’ll back him to turn things around.

Teheran is a decent starter for LA, but the bullpen is nothing special and I can see the Oakland hitters going after him here.

Monday, August 10

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees, 3:15 am
Yankees $1.88

In probably the marquee matchup of the day, I’m taking the Yankees as very slight $1.88 favourites.

They’ve started the campaign with a very impressive 10-5 record, also notching a plus 15 run differential.

Tampa haven’t been as effective, going just 7-8 with a neutral differential.

James Paxton is set to take the mound for New York here, having established himself as a very consistent option over the past few seasons.

Charlie Morton is a solid starter for Tampa, but the Yank’s bullpen depth gives them the pitching edge here.

The two hitting lineups can barely be compared, with the likes od LeMahieu, Judge, Stanton, and Voit clearly ahead of their competition.

Having lost two of the first 3 in this series, I’m expecting the Yankees to level the score here.

Texas Rangers vs LA Angels, 4:40 am
Rangers $2.15

This is one of the more lower profile games of the day, but I like the look of Texas at $2.15.

Neither side has looked good at all this season, with both notching just 5 wins thus far.

Texas find themselves slightly above LA in the table, having played two less games.

I’d project the Rangers as slight favourites here, so we’re getting about 20-25 cents of value at this line.

Rangers pitcher Lance Lynn has had an excellent start to the season, giving up just 1 earned run through his first 3 starts.

The Rangers appear to be a different team when he steps up to the mound and I’d expect one of their better performances here.

Andrew Heaney is a decent option for the Angels, but he doesn’t have the same top-end level nor consistency as Lynn.

As long as Trout doesn’t get going for the Angels, I can’t help but like this $2.15 Texas price point.

Sunday, August 9

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins, 9:05 am
Twins $1.60

Minnesota have been the best team in the American League thus far, racing out to a 10-4 start with a plus 28 run differential.

Wins have been much harder to come by for Kansas City, who are second to last in the conference with just 5 wins from 15 games.

Kansas City pulled off a surprise win in the series opener yesterday, but I’m banking on Minnesota to turn that around here.

Jake Odorizzi is back on the mound for the Twins here, coming off an excellent 2019 where he went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA.

I like him much more than Danny Duffy for the Royals, who is yet to have an ERA under 4 in any of his starts this season.

The Twins also have a ton of excellent offensive players to maximize this advantage, with Kepler, Cruz, and Rosario leading the way.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds, 9:10 am
Brewers $1.92

The odds look very even in this one, with both sides coming in at $1.92.

Neither side has had a great start to the campaign, with Milwaukee at 5-6 and Cincinnati at 6-8.

The pitching matchup is also relatively even, with DeSclafani and Anderson both proving to be consistent solid starters.

I place a slight advantage on home field and also believe Milwaukee has the better hitters, making them decent value at $1.92.

They also started the series with a poor 8-3 defeat, which should provide them with an intrinsic edge to level the score here.

Their offense hasn’t been too explosive this season, but they’ve definitely got the players to make that happen.

Christian Yelich is an elite Left Fielder, while Smoak and Garcia are very capable supporting bats.

If Anderson can deliver his usual solid pitching, I like the Brewers hitters to prove the difference here.

 

Saturday, August 8

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians, 10:15 am
Indians $1.92

The odds are dead even for this one, with both sides currently priced at $1.92.

I’ve got a slight lean towards Cleveland here, mainly because I feel as though they’re the more complete team.

They’ve had a very good start to the season, going 8-6 with a plus 17 run differential so far.

Chicago are only one win behind them in the standings, but have a much worse differential.

The Indians have a huge edge here in the pitching matchup, with Aaron Civale starting against Dylan Cease.

Civale has looked outstanding thus far, controlling the plate well and delivering a 2.34 ERA.

Cease has struggled in comparison, and actually put up a 15.43 ERA in this very same matchup a week ago.

Factor in a powerful group of hitters in the form of Ramirez, Lindor, and Santana and Cleveland look mighty appealing here.

Oakland A’s vs Houston Astros, 11:15 am
Astros $1.90

Another high-profile game with very similar odds here. I’m also slightly leaning toward the road side, with Houston currently paying $1.90.

You can’t argue with Oakland’s impressive 9-4 start to the campaign, one that includes a plus 15 run differential.

That said, I think their good form is in part due to a rather weak schedule, which has in turn overvalued them in the market.

I’m not a huge fan of them in this pitching matchup, with the relatively unheralded Chris Bassitt taking the mound.

He just isn’t on the same level as Zack Greinke for Houston, which is where the main matchup advantage lies.

Although they haven’t been outstanding this season, I’ve still got a huge amount of confidence in Houston’s offense.

Oakland are a bit more inconsistent and I’m not sure Greinke is the pitcher they’ll break their drought against.

Friday, August 7

Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers, 5:45 am
A's $1.67

Oakland have gotten off to a rather impressive start this season, going 8-4 through their first 12.

They play a Texas side near the foot of the table here, winning only 3 of their first 10 contests.

The A’s have won the first two of this 3 game series and I’m banking on them making it a sweep here.

Texas have really struggled offensively this season and that’s been the main reason behind their early struggles.

I don’t anticipate this changing against Mike Fiers from Oakland, who comes off a tremendous 2019 season.

While the A’s offense hasn’t been great so far, their pitching and defense has carried them to a strong record.

They’ve got some very talented hitters that are more likely than not to come good soon.

Against an inconsistent Rangers pitching staff, this could be a breakout game.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees, 8:10 am
Yankees $1.65

The Yankees have looked like arguably the best team in baseball this season and I’m backing them for the first time since opening day.

They’ve raced out to a strong 9-2 record, trailing only Minnesota in the American League.

Philly have had an incredibly disjointed season, winning only twice in their limited sample of 6 games.

New York has won 2 of the first 3 games in this 4-game series and I expect them to finish with a convincing 3-1 series win here.

Philly are still very much getting into the swing of things, with this being only their second series since their opener against Miami.

The Yankees are a huge step up in quality and I think they’ve struggled with that adjustment so far.

Their offence hasn’t been consistent enough, being held to 3 and 1 run respectively in their two losses this series.

They’ll need to be really good against Jordan Montgomery and Co to pull off the win here and I think that’s just unlikely at this price point.

Thursday, August 6

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays, 9:10 am
Braves $1.70

Atlanta have been in some very strong recent form, winning 6 of their last 7 contests to move to 8-4.

I fancy them here at home against the Blue Jays, who are currently just 3-5.

Atlanta opened the series yesterday with a dominant 10-1 win and I can see more of the same here.

Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson ran the show, combining for 5 RBI in an impressive hitting performance.

The Blue Jays have already had an incredibly disrupted season and I don’t envisage that changing any time soon.

Not only have they not been able to play any games at home this season, they also had their 4-game series with Philly postponed due to COVID concerns.

This takes a huge mental toll on a team and I’m not sure their heads will be fully in the game here.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is definitely a capable pitching option for them, but Sean Newcomb can definitely match him for Atlanta.

The Braves have the much better hitting lineup and I think that’s where they win this one.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros, 11:10 am
Astros $1.60

Houston appear to have steadied the ship of late, currently sitting 5th in the American League at 6-4.

They had a solid 8-2 win over Arizona yesterday and I see similar matchup advantages presenting themselves here.

George Springer led off with 3 RBI, while Carlos Correa had 3 hits and made it home twice in yesterday’s strong performance.

The Diamondbacks are looking like one of the worst sides in the majors this season, going just 3-8 through their first 11.

They’ve admittedly had a tough schedule, but their batting lineup just isn’t getting it done.

I don’t see that changing here against Lance McCullers, who has been steady as a starter and has an excellent bullpen supporting him.

Scoring shouldn’t be a trouble for Houston either, with their stellar lineup going against the struggling Robbie Ray.

Combine these factors and the road to a 2-0 series lead looks rather simple for Houston.

Wednesday, August 5

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox, 08:40
Rays $1.65

This is a battle between two underachievers out East and I’m leaning towards Tampa here.

The Red Sox have struggled mightily so far, falling to just 3-7 after getting swept by the Yankees.

Their starting pitchers have struggled immensely and they don’t have the same hitting power they once did.

Things admittedly haven’t been much better for Tampa, who are just 4-6 after surprisingly getting swept by Baltimore.

That said, whee I think Tampa have the strong edge here is in the pitching matchup.

Despite a relatively poor season thus far, he has still had an excellent career and had an outstanding 2019.

Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t inspire the same confidence for Boston, having had a disastrous last season.

I also think Tampa has a better overall batting lineup and should enjoy some success here.

Combine that with the advantage of an extra rest day and I like them at this price.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox, 10:10
White Sox $2.05

I’m opting for a road underdog here, with the White Sox currently priced at $2.05.

They have looked decent through 10 games, compiling a 6-4 record and plus 7 run differential.

Milwaukee haven’t looked as good, playing only 7 games and emerging victorious in just 3.

Their season has really been disrupted by COVID and I can see the effects of that playing out over the coming games.

They had a 4-game series with St Louis wiped out and looked a little behind in their return to action yesterday.

I also like the pitching matchup for Chicago here, with Lucas Giolito coming in off a very strong 2019.

They possess a strong hitting lineup that has consistently produced thus far.

Their top order is especially strong, with Abreu, Moncada, and Robert effectively leading the way.

Factor in all this and they look like very juicy underdogs.

Tuesday, August 4

Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, 8:40 am
Reds $1.77

I’m taking Cincinnati on the road here, currently at decent $1.77 odds.

They haven’t had a great start to the season, sitting at just 4-5 despite a positive run differential.

Cleveland have been slightly better in the early going, recording a .500 record through their first 10.

The main reason for liking Cincinnati here is their edge in the pitching matchup.

Sonny Gray has been one of the better options in the MLB for the last half-decade and is coming off an excellent season.

Zach Plesac is a decent option for Cleveland, but he hasn’t shown the same top-end ability or durability as Gray.

I can see the strong Cincinnati batting lineup getting after him here, which could bring the bullpen in early.

The Reds appear to have found their offensive groove over the past 3 games, and with this matchup, I’d expect that to continue here.

LA Dodgers vs San Diego Padres, 11:10 am
Dodgers $1.70

I like this matchup for the Dodgers and I’m taking them as $1.70 favourites here.

They’re in the midst of a solid run of form, winning 7 from 10 and enjoying a plus 30 run differential.

The offence appeared to really find its feet in a 3-1 series win over Arizona, putting up a solid 23 runs.

Their defence was arguably even better, restricting the D-Backs to 10 runs at an average of 2.5 per game.

They’ve got one of their better pitching options available today, with the reliable Walker Buehler stepping up to the mound.

While San Diego do have a strong batting lineup, the Dodgers have a world-class bullpen should anything go astray.

Chris Paddack is coming off a solid debut season for the Padres, but I haven’t seen enough to be fully convinced of him.

This Dodgers lineup is tough for anyone to face and I’d expect their big hitting to get them over the line here.

 

Sunday, August 2

LA Angels vs Houston Astros, 09:15
Astros $1.60

I like the Astros to win here, currently paying out $1.60.

They haven’t been outstanding results wise, yet they still sit atop their division.

They opened their 2-game series with the Angels with a win yesterday and I expect them to finish the job here.

Zack Greinke returns to the mound for this one and I’d still expect him to be one of the better pitchers in the league this season.

Should he struggle early, they’ve also got a very capable bullpen that can bail him out and restrict LA.

Things have seemingly gone from bad to worse for the Angels, who currently sit bottom of the American League at 2-6.

Griffin Canning will start for them here and he hasn’t inspired any confidence in me through his starts thus far.

He’ll face a punishing and stacked batting lineup here, without a capable bullpen to bail him out.

As long as the Houston pitchers do their job, this should be a comfortable one.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland A’s, 11:15
A's $1.65

Oakland look to be decent value in this spot, currently paying out odds of $1.65.

They’ve struggled out the gate to a rather poor 3-4 record, definitely below where most experts pegged them.

That said, I think this undervalues them in the market and would expect them to turn things around soon.

Seattle have been a decent 4-4 through 8 games, but this just isn’t a side that I expect much from.

I think Oakland have a solid advantage in the pitching matchup here, especially when you factor in their bullpen.

Despite players like Chapman, Olson, and Davis not delivering thus far, I think they’re definitely due for a change in fortune.

Seattle have actually shown some decent hitting prowess this season, yet I also think this is set to regress to the mean.

Overall, I perceive Oakland as an undervalued team in the market and like them in this spot against an overachiever.

Saturday, August 1

Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals, 4:15 am
Brewers $1.67

The Cardinals haven’t had a great start to the season, losing 3 straight to sit at 2-3.

That said, I like them to right the ship here as $1.67 favourites.

While a 2-0 series loss to the Twins isn’t ideal, I think Minnesota are a far stronger opponent than what they’ll face in Milwaukee.

They’ve had an important rest day between games in this shortened season, one which should help them recover and regain focus.

Jack Flaherty also returns to the mound here, going 1-0 thus far after putting in an outstanding 2019 performance.

I don’t have the same confidence in Brett Anderson for the Brewers, who has an ERA over 4 for his career and a below .500 record.

The Cardinals bullpen has also shown their quality this season, with no opponent scoring 6 runs total in a game.

If the offence can pick back up here, the pitching is definitely there to support them.

LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 11:45 am
Dodgers $1.67

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

We got up with the Dodgers yesterday and they’re priced as similar $1.67 favourites here.

There can definitely be a lot of variance in a single baseball game but I think there’s a significant talent gulf between these two sides.

The pitching matchup is a bit of a wash here, with both sides putting up seemingly talented young pitchers without huge results.

That said, the Dodgers have the significantly better bullpen should things go awry, which is a possibility for each side.

When you compare the two hitting lineups, I don’t think it’s even close.

The Dodgers have a world class lineup with several consistent top-end performers, while Arizona aren’t nearly as deep.

In conditions that should definitely favour hitters, I think this helps the Dodgers go 2-0 up in a crucial series.