Wednesday, August 5

Wednesday, August 5

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox, 08:40
Rays $1.65

This is a battle between two underachievers out East and I’m leaning towards Tampa here.

The Red Sox have struggled mightily so far, falling to just 3-7 after getting swept by the Yankees.

Their starting pitchers have struggled immensely and they don’t have the same hitting power they once did.

Things admittedly haven’t been much better for Tampa, who are just 4-6 after surprisingly getting swept by Baltimore.

That said, whee I think Tampa have the strong edge here is in the pitching matchup.

Despite a relatively poor season thus far, he has still had an excellent career and had an outstanding 2019.

Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t inspire the same confidence for Boston, having had a disastrous last season.

I also think Tampa has a better overall batting lineup and should enjoy some success here.

Combine that with the advantage of an extra rest day and I like them at this price.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox, 10:10
White Sox $2.05

I’m opting for a road underdog here, with the White Sox currently priced at $2.05.

They have looked decent through 10 games, compiling a 6-4 record and plus 7 run differential.

Milwaukee haven’t looked as good, playing only 7 games and emerging victorious in just 3.

Their season has really been disrupted by COVID and I can see the effects of that playing out over the coming games.

They had a 4-game series with St Louis wiped out and looked a little behind in their return to action yesterday.

I also like the pitching matchup for Chicago here, with Lucas Giolito coming in off a very strong 2019.

They possess a strong hitting lineup that has consistently produced thus far.

Their top order is especially strong, with Abreu, Moncada, and Robert effectively leading the way.

Factor in all this and they look like very juicy underdogs.

Tuesday, August 4

Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, 8:40 am
Reds $1.77

I’m taking Cincinnati on the road here, currently at decent $1.77 odds.

They haven’t had a great start to the season, sitting at just 4-5 despite a positive run differential.

Cleveland have been slightly better in the early going, recording a .500 record through their first 10.

The main reason for liking Cincinnati here is their edge in the pitching matchup.

Sonny Gray has been one of the better options in the MLB for the last half-decade and is coming off an excellent season.

Zach Plesac is a decent option for Cleveland, but he hasn’t shown the same top-end ability or durability as Gray.

I can see the strong Cincinnati batting lineup getting after him here, which could bring the bullpen in early.

The Reds appear to have found their offensive groove over the past 3 games, and with this matchup, I’d expect that to continue here.

LA Dodgers vs San Diego Padres, 11:10 am
Dodgers $1.70

I like this matchup for the Dodgers and I’m taking them as $1.70 favourites here.

They’re in the midst of a solid run of form, winning 7 from 10 and enjoying a plus 30 run differential.

The offence appeared to really find its feet in a 3-1 series win over Arizona, putting up a solid 23 runs.

Their defence was arguably even better, restricting the D-Backs to 10 runs at an average of 2.5 per game.

They’ve got one of their better pitching options available today, with the reliable Walker Buehler stepping up to the mound.

While San Diego do have a strong batting lineup, the Dodgers have a world-class bullpen should anything go astray.

Chris Paddack is coming off a solid debut season for the Padres, but I haven’t seen enough to be fully convinced of him.

This Dodgers lineup is tough for anyone to face and I’d expect their big hitting to get them over the line here.

 

Sunday, August 2

LA Angels vs Houston Astros, 09:15
Astros $1.60

I like the Astros to win here, currently paying out $1.60.

They haven’t been outstanding results wise, yet they still sit atop their division.

They opened their 2-game series with the Angels with a win yesterday and I expect them to finish the job here.

Zack Greinke returns to the mound for this one and I’d still expect him to be one of the better pitchers in the league this season.

Should he struggle early, they’ve also got a very capable bullpen that can bail him out and restrict LA.

Things have seemingly gone from bad to worse for the Angels, who currently sit bottom of the American League at 2-6.

Griffin Canning will start for them here and he hasn’t inspired any confidence in me through his starts thus far.

He’ll face a punishing and stacked batting lineup here, without a capable bullpen to bail him out.

As long as the Houston pitchers do their job, this should be a comfortable one.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland A’s, 11:15
A's $1.65

Oakland look to be decent value in this spot, currently paying out odds of $1.65.

They’ve struggled out the gate to a rather poor 3-4 record, definitely below where most experts pegged them.

That said, I think this undervalues them in the market and would expect them to turn things around soon.

Seattle have been a decent 4-4 through 8 games, but this just isn’t a side that I expect much from.

I think Oakland have a solid advantage in the pitching matchup here, especially when you factor in their bullpen.

Despite players like Chapman, Olson, and Davis not delivering thus far, I think they’re definitely due for a change in fortune.

Seattle have actually shown some decent hitting prowess this season, yet I also think this is set to regress to the mean.

Overall, I perceive Oakland as an undervalued team in the market and like them in this spot against an overachiever.

Saturday, August 1

Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals, 4:15 am
Brewers $1.67

The Cardinals haven’t had a great start to the season, losing 3 straight to sit at 2-3.

That said, I like them to right the ship here as $1.67 favourites.

While a 2-0 series loss to the Twins isn’t ideal, I think Minnesota are a far stronger opponent than what they’ll face in Milwaukee.

They’ve had an important rest day between games in this shortened season, one which should help them recover and regain focus.

Jack Flaherty also returns to the mound here, going 1-0 thus far after putting in an outstanding 2019 performance.

I don’t have the same confidence in Brett Anderson for the Brewers, who has an ERA over 4 for his career and a below .500 record.

The Cardinals bullpen has also shown their quality this season, with no opponent scoring 6 runs total in a game.

If the offence can pick back up here, the pitching is definitely there to support them.

LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 11:45 am
Dodgers $1.67

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

We got up with the Dodgers yesterday and they’re priced as similar $1.67 favourites here.

There can definitely be a lot of variance in a single baseball game but I think there’s a significant talent gulf between these two sides.

The pitching matchup is a bit of a wash here, with both sides putting up seemingly talented young pitchers without huge results.

That said, the Dodgers have the significantly better bullpen should things go awry, which is a possibility for each side.

When you compare the two hitting lineups, I don’t think it’s even close.

The Dodgers have a world class lineup with several consistent top-end performers, while Arizona aren’t nearly as deep.

In conditions that should definitely favour hitters, I think this helps the Dodgers go 2-0 up in a crucial series.

Friday, July 31

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians, 9:05 am
Twins $1.92

This is probably one of the best matchups of the day, with both sides listed at $1.92 odds.

I think Minnesota is the slightly better of these two sides and will gladly take them at these odds, especially at home.

Jose Berrios was absolute money last season, and while he wasn’t great in his season debut last week, I’m confident he’ll enjoy another good year.

The Twins have been arguably the best side in the majors thus far, going 4-1 with a +16-run differential through 5 games.

They’ve been very good offensively, putting up particularly gaudy hitting numbers against Chicago.

Their batting lineup is deep and versatile, which should provide support for Berrios here.

I think their bullpen can also contain Cleveland here, with Duffey and Romo looking especially good so far.

Combine all of the above factors and they’re good value at essentially even money.

LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 11:40 am
Dodgers $1.65

I like the Dodgers at home here, currently $1.65 against the struggling Diamondbacks.

The Dodgers have had a solid start to the season, going 4-2 with a +17-run differential.

Ross Stripling is slated to get the start here, coming off a very solid opening outing vs the Giants.

The Dodgers bullpen has also been excellent thus far, keeping their opponent to 5 runs or less in every game.

On offence, the talent speaks for itself. Guys like Muncy, Betts, Bellinger, and Pederson are significantly better than their opponents here.

Robbie Ray isn’t an awful pitcher for Arizona, but he’s consistently over 4 with his ERA and had a poor start against San Diego last week.

I don’t have a ton of confidence in their bullpen to bail him out either if needed.

Overall, the Dodgers offence should have a field day here, with Stripling and Co. doing enough to secure the win.

Thursday, July 30

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 06:05
Rangers $1.77

The 1-3 Rangers host the 2-3 Diamondbacks here and are currently listed as $1.77 favourites.

Although they haven’t had a great season thus far, I like the Rangers to get the job done here.

Lance Lynn is probably their best pitching option and he gets the start here after an impressive debut last week.

The Texas offence just hasn’t been firing this season and that’s been the main reason for their struggles.

I expect this to change against an Arizona pitching department that isn’t anything special.

Bumgarner is a shell of his former self as the starter and their bullpen isn’t exactly stocked with options.

I don’t see anything systemically wrong with the Texas offence, which should improve with the law of averages.

Factor in home field and the pitching edge and I expect them to break their slide here.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals, 09:10
Tigers $1.70

Not exactly a glamour tie between the 3-2 Tigers and the 2-3 Royals but I see some value on Detroit here.

They look much improved this season and I can see them hanging around the middle of the pack.

Their offence has been noticeably better, anchored by the trio of Cabrera, Stewart, and Reyes.

Matthew Boyd hasn’t been great as a pitcher thus far, but I think we’re getting extra value here after his poor showing against Cincinnati.

Should he struggle early, I think the deep Detroit bullpen can bail him out if required.

Kansas City haven’t been great thus far and they were convincingly beat in their opening series against the Indians.

Their batting lineup hasn’t looked great, with the exception of game 1 vs Detroit two days ago.

Danny Duffy is an average option at starting pitcher and they don’t exactly have a deep bullpen should things go awry.

With a lot of the optics in their favour, I like Detroit here.

Wednesday, July 29

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves, 08:40
Rays $1.77

Tampa are currently $1.77 favourites here and I think they’re good value in this one.

They’ve gotten off to a solid 3-1 start this season, including a 14-5 win in the series opener last time out.

Their batting lineup has looked particularly potent, with Jose Martinez and Hunter Renfroe combining for 7 RBI in yesterday’s win.

Atlanta doesn’t necessarily have the strongest bullpen, which is something Tampa could exploit again here.

Kyle Wright has also struggled as a starter in recent seasons, going 0-3 with an 8.69 ERA in 2019.

Yonny Chirinos has been much more reliable in two seasons in Tampa and I’d expect him to do a solid job here.

Combine that with a solid bullpen and home field and I like Tampa to extend their series lead.

Houston Astros vs LA Dodgers, 11:10
Dodgers $1.70

We’ve got a blockbuster matchup here, with two of the best sides in baseball set for a two-game series.

The Dodgers are currently instilled as $1.70 favourites and I’m expecting them to get the job done here.

They looked great in their first two games against the Giants, before succumbing to close losses in the last two.

I think they’ve got a world-class batting lineup, especially with the trio of Muncy, Betts, and Bellinger at the top.

They also likely have the pitching advantage here, with Walker Buehler slated to start.

He has been very good in his first two seasons as a pro and established himself as one of the better young pitchers in the league.

He’s also got an incredibly capable bullpen behind him, in case the going gets tough early.

Houston did pick up a solid 3-1 series win over Seattle to start, but there isn’t much expected from the Mariners this season.

Frambler Valdez tended to struggle at times last season and I’d expect LA to get after him here, which should ultimately prove the difference.

Tuesday, July 28th

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds, 08:40
Cubs $1.80

I like the Cubs as rather narrow $1.80 home favourites over Cincinnati here.

Chicago have started their season nicely, earning a 2-1 series win over a capable Milwaukee side.

I think they’re a better team than Cincinnati and they get to remain at home here.

Jon Lester is set to start at pitcher and he’s still proven to be one of the more reliable options in the game.

The Cubs offence was especially good yesterday, knocking in 9 runs against Milwaukee.

They’ve got a lot of depth and versatility in their lineup, with Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, and Heyward the standouts.

I’m not entirely sure what to make of Cincinnati after an opening series loss to a poor Detroit side.

They appear to lack the firepower on the batting side and don’t exactly have a deep bullpen.

Give me the better side at home here at close to even money.

Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox, 09:10
Indians $1.74

I’m wagering on another Chicago game here, opting to take their opponent in this one.

I’m somewhat bullish on the Indians this season and they enter this clash off a comfortable series win over Kansas City.

Their batting lineup looked particularly good, knocking in 9 runs last time out.

Francisco Lindor remains the main man on offense, but Ramirez, Santana, and Reyes are all capable deputies.

Aaron Civale is set to take the mound for Cleveland here, coming off a rather solid rookie season where he had a 2.34 ERA.

He compares pretty favourably to Dylan Cease for Chicago, who was just 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA last season.

The Cleveland bullpen has also been solid when called upon thus far, yet to give away a single earned run.

I think a solid pitching and defensive day helps Cleveland start this series with a win.

Monday, July 27

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins, 03:05
Phillies $1.62

The Phillies and Marlins have split their first two games, but I’m expecting Philly to round out this series with a win here.

Their batting lineup looked great yesterday, really going after a poor Miami bullpen.

With guys like McCutchen, Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto, and Gregorius, they’ve got plenty of room for error here.

Offensive firepower has been a problem for Miami in recent seasons and they didn’t do much this off-season to address it.

Vince Velasquez is pitching for Philly here and he admittedly hasn’t been the best of late.

I think that actually provides a bit of value on the price and expect him to have a much better season this year, largely due to improved health.

This is in contrast to Jose Urena for Miami, who went just 4-10 with a 5.21 ERA last season.

Factor in the significantly better batting lineup and bullpen for the Phillies and they look like good value here.

St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates, 04:15
Cardinals $1.60

The Cardinals have had two impressive wins to start the season and I’m predicting them to go for the sweep here.

Their deep and versatile batting lineup has looked in excellent shape to start the campaign, combining for 14 runs thus far.

This was already a strong offensive team and the new DH rules in the NL should only help them further.

I also think they’ve got a significant edge here in the pitching department.

The inexperienced Mitch Keller will start for the Pirates here, going a pedestrian 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA last season.

Dakota Hudson starts hear for the Cardinals and he has been a revelation since making his debut in 2018.

He has gone 20-8 with a 3.25 ERA thus far and comes up against a Pirates batting lineup that seems to be lacking in quality.

With quality bullpen support like John Gant and Tyler Webb, I can see the Cardinals rolling here.

Sunday, July 26

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays, 5:10 am
Rays $1.65

The Rays suffered a surprise opening day loss, but I’d back them to bounce back here.

I think they’re one of the better teams in the American League and really a dark-horse contender to go deep this season.

They’ve got a deep and versatile batting lineup as well as several options in the bullpen.

Ryan Yarbrough is slated to pitch for them here and he’s been an excellent option over the past two seasons.

He’s amassed an elite 27-12 record, with a 1.15 WHIP thrown in for good measure.

The off-season has been incredibly difficult for Toronto and I’d expect them to struggle this season.

They did have a solid outing yesterday, but I’d attribute a fair amount of this to an off-day for Rays pitcher Morton.

Matt Shoemaker hasn’t been a starter for most of his career and I wonder how many innings he can give them here.

If he gets taken apart early, it could be a long day for Toronto’s pitching staff.

Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, 6:10 am
A's $1.67

Oakland got off to a very solid start yesterday and I’d expect them to continue their good form here.

They open as $1.67 favourites against an Angels team that I’m not expecting much from this season.

The A’s have a very strong batting lineup, with the trio of Chapman, Davis, and Olson making an elite middle order.

They’ve also got Sean Manaea on the mound here, who was an excellent 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA last season.

Take away Mike Trout and I’m not sure the Angels have much in the way of offence.

Albert Pujols is a clear Hall-of-Famer, but he’s well past his prime aged 40.

Pitching is also a real worry for the Angels here, with starter Dylan Bundy going 15-30 over his last two seasons.

Behind him is a rather poor bullpen that gave up 6 runs in less than 5 innings yesterday.