Tuesday, September 1

Tuesday, September 1

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays, 9:10 am
Yankees $1.67

I like the Yankees at home here, currently instilled as $1.67 home favourites over Tampa.

It hasn’t been the best season for New York, who’ve only managed a 17-13 record so far.

Recent form has been rather problematic, with only 3 wins in their last 10 games.

I think this has led to them becoming somewhat undervalued in the market and they’re a better team than what we’ve seen of late.

Compare that to a surging Tampa team who are 23-11 overall and 8-2 in their last 10.

I feel as though we’ve seen the best of what they’ve got to offer and that they’re becoming overvalued.

Gerrit Cole is still one of the best pitchers in the majors and I think his presence here will lead to a home win in a competitive game.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:40 am
Brewers

My second pick of the day is essentially a fade of the awful Pittsburgh Pirates.

They are a miserable 9-21 on the season and an even worse 4-12 in road games.

Their form has admittedly lifted slightly in the last 10, where they’ve gone an even 5-5.

That said, I believe they’ve now become a little overvalued and that they’re still one of the worst sides in the majors.

Milwaukee remain middle of the pack at 15-17, with an outside shot at the playoffs as we enter the second half of the season.

While it hasn’t been the case this year, they’ve historically had a very strong home field advantage that should start to pay dividends soon.

I think they’ve got a bevy of capable hitters and should be able to get after Pittsburgh starter Trevor Williams here.

If they can deliver a mistake-free pitching and defensive display, this should be a comfortable home win for the Brewers.

Monday, August 31

Houston Astros vs Oakland A’s, 4:15 am
Astros $2

Any time you can get Houston as home underdogs, I think they’re definitely worth considering.

You could make the case that they’re having a down year, but they still occupy a playoff place with their 18-14 record.

Their run differential has also been very good this season, suggesting that they’ve potentially gotten unlucky in some close games.

Oakland are no slouches either at 22-11, but that’s why they’re favoured on the road here.

Frambler Valdez is set to start at pitcher for Houston here and he’s looked very good when called upon this season.

He has an ERA of just 2.35 through 33 innings, which bodes well against the usually strong A’s batting lineup.

Jesus Luzardo has been a bit more inconsistent for Oakland this season and I could see the youngster in for a tough day against this good Houston lineup.

Add in the slight edge in home field for Houston and they look good value at $2.

St Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Indians, 4:20 am
Indians $1.92

I’m taking what I consider to be a very strong Cleveland team here, currently at even money on the road against St Louis.

The Indians have had a tremendous start to the season, sitting 3rd in the American League at 21-12.

Meanwhile, St Louis have had a very disjointed campaign due to COVID and sit 9th with a pedestrian 11-13 record.

I like what I’ve seen from Cleveland this season, especially on the pitching and defense side of things.

They’ve held their opponent under 10 runs in 12 of their last 13 games, a trend which should continue against a struggling Cardinals attack.

Aaron Civale is in the midst of a decent campaign and I’d expect more of the same from him here.

If the Cleveland offense can get after the ageing Adam Wainwright, I think they can win this comfortably.

Sunday, August 30

Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals, 9:30 am
Nationals $1.90

The craziness of the past few days appears to have died down and I’d expect the full slate to be played today.

I’m going to continue one of my favourite trends this season, fading the Boston Red Sox.

Boston are just 10-22 with an atrocious minus 56 run differential, good for last in the American League.

Washington have been far from perfect, backing up their World Series title with a poor 12-17 start.

That said, the fact that they maintain a positive run differential suggests to me they’ve been rather unlucky in close games this season.

There’s no better way to get right than to face arguably the worst side in baseball.

Boston are still relying heavily on their bullpen to go for most of the 9 innings, which should really help Washington’s hitters here.

If Anibal Sanchez can put up a reasonable outing for the Nats, I like them at even money here.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants, 10:10 am
Giants $2.25

Neither of these sides have been impressive this season, both sitting near the bottom of the National League.

Arizona are 14th in the Conference at just 13-19, with the G-Men a few spots ahead at 15-18.

The stats suggest these two teams are fairly evenly matched, so I think there’s some value on the Giants as $2.25 underdogs.

They’ve rebounded well after a really poor start and their hitters appear to be finally finding their groove.

Veteran Trevor Cahill gets the start here and I think he’s definitely a better option than Leo Weaver for Arizona.

The weakness of this Giants side has typically been their offense, but I think they’ve got the matchup advantage to go after Weaver here.

At $2.25, I’ll take the value on the underdog in what should be a close one.

Friday, August 28

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies, 8:40 am
Phillies $2.65

Relatively limited selection of markets today, but I see some value in Philly as $2.65 road underdogs.

Washington are in the midst of an awful title defense, going just 11-17 overall and a pedestrian 4-12 at home.

Philly admittedly haven’t been much better, going just 12-14 on the season so far.

The main reason for backing them here is the pure value on offer, as I think these sides are near even.

Max Scherzer is overpriced in the market as per usual, already getting 70% of the early money in on Washington.

Spencer Howard is largely unproven for the Phillies, but I’d expect him to hold his own against an out-of-form Washington lineup.

Philly still boast a talented bevy of hitters of their own, which I think will be enough to remain competitive here.

Texas Rangers vs Oakland A’s, 8:40 am
A's $1.55

The A’s are in the midst of a phenomenal run right now and you’d have to say they’re in with a shot at the world series at this point.

They continue to sit atop the American League with a 22-10 record and an excellent run differential.

I think they match up rather well with this Texas side and are on course to claim a series victory here.

Chris Bassitt will take the mound for them here and he’s been one of the best pitchers in the majors this season.

Texas don’t exactly have a strong batting lineup and I think he’s more than capable of another strong day at the office.

Jordan Lyles is slated to pitch for Texas here and he’s been one of the worst pitchers in the majors this season.

Last time out against Seattle, he gave up 11 hits and 8 earned runs in just 4 innings of action.

This doesn’t bode well against an in-form Oakland offense, which should be able to run riot here.

Thursday, August 26

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs, 9:15 am
Cubs $1.65

I’m taking Chicago here in my first play of the day, currently instilled as $1.65 road favourites.

They’ve had a very solid season so far, sitting 2nd in the National League with an 18-11 record.

The Tigers, on the other hand, have predictably struggled this season.

They’re just 12-16 through their 28 games, also having a negative 31 run differential.

The pitching matchup also heavily favours Chicago here, with ace Jon Lester set to take the mound.

I think he’s a much better option than Fulmer for Detroit and should have a relatively clean day against an anaemic offense.

Chicago also have a talented lineup of their own, particularly with the likes of Rizzo and Baez up top.

If they play up to their potential here, it should be a relatively comfortable win.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies, 11:45 am
Rockies $2

This figures to be a rather close matchup, but I’ll take Colorado as narrow $2 road dogs.

They’ve dipped a little of late after a fairly strong start, now 14-15 and 7th in the conference.

Arizona haven’t been any better, with a 13-17 record through 30 games and an atrocious negative 25 run differential.

I think the Rockies match up relatively well here, which proved to be the case in Tuesday’s series opener.

The Diamondbacks have a thin batting lineup and have largely struggled to generate reliable offense this season.

Their pitching staff has also been inconsistent to say the least, evidenced by their poor run differential.

Jon Gray hasn’t had the best season for Colorado, but he’s still been a dependable pitcher for his career and I’d back him to turn it around.

If the hitters can continue their decent run of form, I like them as road underdogs here.

Wednesday, August 26

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox, 8:40 am
Blue Jays $1.80

I’ve been fading Boston at nearly every opportunity of late and intend to continue doing so here.

I think Toronto are the markedly better of these two sides right now and look like decent value at $1.80.

Despite all that has gone against them this season, the Blue Jays sit relatively pretty at 14-13 through 27 games.

The Red Sox remain at the cellar of the American League, having won just 9 of their first 29 games.

While they possess a decent batting lineup, their pitching staff is absolutely decimated right now.

They’re struggling to produce 9 innings of quality on a nightly basis, which could prove crucial here.

Toronto’s offense has looked solid of late and they’ve got a bevy of strong hitters that could really eat here.

If Chase Anderson continues his strong form with the ball, they look like great value here.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds, 10:15 am
Brewers $1.88

Neither of these sides has had a great start to 2020, but I’ll back the Brewers as narrow $1.88 home favourites.

Both of these sides are currently 11-15 and will require a marked improvement over the second half of the season to even sniff the playoffs.

I do think the Brewers have the slight edge in this matchup, somewhat evidenced by their win in the series opener yesterday.

Cincinnati aren’t exactly a deep team and they’ve struggled on the pitching side this season.

The Brewers have some very good bats that just haven’t gotten going yet, which could be due to change in this matchup.

Brandon Woodruff has also been solid for Milwaukee so far and he definitely gives them the edge here.

If you give me the better pitcher and home field at near even money, I’m generally inclined to take it.

Tuesday, August 25

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins, 8:10 am
Nationals $1.85

I like the look of Washington here, currently instilled as rather small $1.85 home favourites.

They have had a bit of a disjointed season so far, but let’s not forget that this is the current world champion.

They’ve still got a bunch of talent across the park, particularly in the batting ranks with the likes of Turner, Eaton, and Soto.

I also think they match up relatively well with Miami, backed up by their 3 wins through the first 4 games of this series.

Austin Voth is slated to get the start here, and his relatively poor form is likely the reason for this high price.

I think he’s capable of doing enough against a rather thin Miami batting lineup, with his own hitters getting the job done at home.

Houston Astros vs LA Angels, 11:15 am
Astros $1.62

I’ve faded the Angels a fair amount this season and I’m back on that train again here.

Despite the controversy surrounding them, I still think Houston are one of the better sides in baseball.

They haven’t had a great season so far, but they’re still definitely in the mix at 15-13.

They’ve had a fairly difficult early schedule, which has somewhat undervalued them in the market.

I rate them as a considerably better side than the Angels, who have won just 9 out of 29 games and have a terrible run differential.

The Houston offense can be much better than what we’ve seen so far, especially with the likes of Springer, Altuve, and Correa leading off.

Frambler Valdez is set to get a lot of the pitching action here and he has a very solid 1.72 ERA for the season.

The Angels are heavily reliant on Mike Trout and I just don’t like their chances if he doesn’t fire here.

Monday, August 24

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox, 3:05 am
Orioles $2.10

Fading the Red Sox has been excellent value of late, especially when they’ve been favourites.

The Sox are a very pedestrian 9-18 on the season, including 5-8 on the road and 3-7 in their last 10.

They’ve generally been overvalued in the market all season, mainly because they’ve got a decent hitting lineup.

Their problems are all in the pitching department, where they’ve been missing most of their best pitchers through injury/COVID.

This has put a ton of pressure on the bullpen to start and finish games, leading to some very tired arms in that clubhouse.

Baltimore have been much more competitive this season and I think they’ve got a decent chance here.

Neither Zack Godley or Wade LeBlanc has impressed so far, but Baltimore has a deeper bullpen if things go awry.

At $2.10, there are much worse bets on the board today.

Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, 6:10 am
A's $1.77

These two sides seemingly play each other every other day and Oakland have often looked like tantalizing value.

They’ve managed an impressive 19-8 record so far, going 12-3 at home and 7-3 in their last 10.

This is in stark contrast to LA, who are just 8-19 overall, 3-10 on the road and 2-8 in their last 10.

Oakland have been tremendous this season and stand as good a chance as anyone to claim the world series in these strange circumstances.

LA teams often tend to get too much love in the betting markets, especially when they aren’t particularly good.

Dylan Bundy is a pitcher that punters tend to love backing, which generally leads to some overvalued markets.

Frankie Montas has done a stellar job for Oakland this season and I expect that to continue against a relatively thin batting lineup.

At $1.77, give me the significantly better side at home here.

Sunday, August 23

St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds, 10:15 am
Reds $2

I’m going to take the underdog Reds on the road here, currently paying out decent $2 odds.

St Louis have had an incredibly disjointed season, playing just 15 games and sitting 7-8 on the year.

The Reds aren’t exactly sitting pretty at 11-13, but they’ve underperformed this season and appear to have found a groove late.

This series has gone 1-1 thus far, but I think Cincy has the matchup advantages to claim the win here.

Firstly, I think they’ve got a pretty strong edge in the pitching battle here.

Wade Miley is a very competent veteran who should be able to hold his own against this batting lineup.

I’m not as confident in Hwang-hyun Kim for St Louis, who had just 4.2 innings of Major League pitching experience.

The Reds have some strong sluggers atop the order and should be able to get over the line with a big offensive day here.

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros, 11:10 am
Astros $2.05

I’m taking another underdog for my second bet today, this time backing Houston at $2.05 on the road against San Diego.

The Astros have been in very good form of late, managing consecutive sweeps over Seattle and Colorado.

San Diego have looked solid to go 15-12 thus far, but I’m not sure this specific matchup really suits them.

Zach Davies has been effective of late for the Padres, but he’ll definitely have his work cut out for him against a strong batting lineup.

Houston’s hitters have really dusted off the cobwebs of late, which has been the main reason for their resurgent form.

Young pitcher Brandon Bielak has also been a revelation thus far, going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his early MLB action.

San Diego’s lineup can be hit or miss, so a good pitching day from Bielak could really lay the foundation for a win.

Saturday, August 22

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays, 8:40 am
Rays $1.60

I’m liking Tampa Bay at home to Toronto here, currently paying solid $1.60 odds.

The Blue Jays have had a fairly disjointed .500 season so far and I have to imagine fatigue is getting to them.

Tampa enters this one buoyed after a 3-game sweep of the Yankees, now holding the 2nd best record in the conference.

They’ve pitched very well of late, a trend I expect to continue with the solid Ryan Yarbrough slated to start.

This Tampa batting lineup is also in excellent form and I’d expect them to get after Matt Shoemaker of the Rays here.

As long as they don’t have a letdown game here, I won’t overtake this one and take a better Rays side at home.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 11:45 am
Diamondbacks $1.85

The Giants have had a very disappointing season so far, currently sitting 2nd bottom in the NL with a 10-16 record.

Arizona didn’t start the season well, yet a strong recent run seems them at 13-12 after 25 games.

Pitching has been the achilles heel for the G-Men this season and I’m not at the point where I trust Logan Webb yet.

The Diamondbacks still have some very solid hitters leading the way and I can see them getting after him here.

Robbie Ray isn’t exactly an elite starter for Arizona, but he’s a steady and consistent option that should be able to get the job done.

The Giants just don’t have enough hitting to get them over the line in most games, evidenced by their terrible run differential.

$1.85 isn’t half bad for this solid Arizona side, especially with no tangible home field advantage either way.