I like the Cubs as rather narrow $1.80 home favourites over Cincinnati here.

Chicago have started their season nicely, earning a 2-1 series win over a capable Milwaukee side.

I think they’re a better team than Cincinnati and they get to remain at home here.

Jon Lester is set to start at pitcher and he’s still proven to be one of the more reliable options in the game.

The Cubs offence was especially good yesterday, knocking in 9 runs against Milwaukee.

They’ve got a lot of depth and versatility in their lineup, with Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, and Heyward the standouts.

I’m not entirely sure what to make of Cincinnati after an opening series loss to a poor Detroit side.

They appear to lack the firepower on the batting side and don’t exactly have a deep bullpen.

Give me the better side at home here at close to even money.

I’m wagering on another Chicago game here, opting to take their opponent in this one.

I’m somewhat bullish on the Indians this season and they enter this clash off a comfortable series win over Kansas City.

Their batting lineup looked particularly good, knocking in 9 runs last time out.

Francisco Lindor remains the main man on offense, but Ramirez, Santana, and Reyes are all capable deputies.

Aaron Civale is set to take the mound for Cleveland here, coming off a rather solid rookie season where he had a 2.34 ERA.

He compares pretty favourably to Dylan Cease for Chicago, who was just 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA last season.

The Cleveland bullpen has also been solid when called upon thus far, yet to give away a single earned run.

I think a solid pitching and defensive day helps Cleveland start this series with a win.

The Phillies and Marlins have split their first two games, but I’m expecting Philly to round out this series with a win here.

Their batting lineup looked great yesterday, really going after a poor Miami bullpen.

With guys like McCutchen, Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto, and Gregorius, they’ve got plenty of room for error here.

Offensive firepower has been a problem for Miami in recent seasons and they didn’t do much this off-season to address it.

Vince Velasquez is pitching for Philly here and he admittedly hasn’t been the best of late.

I think that actually provides a bit of value on the price and expect him to have a much better season this year, largely due to improved health.

This is in contrast to Jose Urena for Miami, who went just 4-10 with a 5.21 ERA last season.

Factor in the significantly better batting lineup and bullpen for the Phillies and they look like good value here.

The Cardinals have had two impressive wins to start the season and I’m predicting them to go for the sweep here.

Their deep and versatile batting lineup has looked in excellent shape to start the campaign, combining for 14 runs thus far.

This was already a strong offensive team and the new DH rules in the NL should only help them further.

I also think they’ve got a significant edge here in the pitching department.

The inexperienced Mitch Keller will start for the Pirates here, going a pedestrian 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA last season.

Dakota Hudson starts hear for the Cardinals and he has been a revelation since making his debut in 2018.

He has gone 20-8 with a 3.25 ERA thus far and comes up against a Pirates batting lineup that seems to be lacking in quality.

With quality bullpen support like John Gant and Tyler Webb, I can see the Cardinals rolling here.

The Rays suffered a surprise opening day loss, but I’d back them to bounce back here.

I think they’re one of the better teams in the American League and really a dark-horse contender to go deep this season.

They’ve got a deep and versatile batting lineup as well as several options in the bullpen.

Ryan Yarbrough is slated to pitch for them here and he’s been an excellent option over the past two seasons.

He’s amassed an elite 27-12 record, with a 1.15 WHIP thrown in for good measure.

The off-season has been incredibly difficult for Toronto and I’d expect them to struggle this season.

They did have a solid outing yesterday, but I’d attribute a fair amount of this to an off-day for Rays pitcher Morton.

Matt Shoemaker hasn’t been a starter for most of his career and I wonder how many innings he can give them here.

If he gets taken apart early, it could be a long day for Toronto’s pitching staff.

Oakland got off to a very solid start yesterday and I’d expect them to continue their good form here.

They open as $1.67 favourites against an Angels team that I’m not expecting much from this season.

The A’s have a very strong batting lineup, with the trio of Chapman, Davis, and Olson making an elite middle order.

They’ve also got Sean Manaea on the mound here, who was an excellent 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA last season.

Take away Mike Trout and I’m not sure the Angels have much in the way of offence.

Albert Pujols is a clear Hall-of-Famer, but he’s well past his prime aged 40.

Pitching is also a real worry for the Angels here, with starter Dylan Bundy going 15-30 over his last two seasons.

Behind him is a rather poor bullpen that gave up 6 runs in less than 5 innings yesterday.

I like the Rangers here as relatively narrow $1.80 favourites.

They haven’t been great in their pre-season training, but I still think they’re the better of these two sides.

I think they’ve got a strong edge in the pitching department here, with Lance Lynn against German Marquez.

Lynn was largely very good last season, picking up a 16-11 record with a 3.67 ERA in what was a below .500 team.

While home field isn’t as important this season, the Rockies do typically have one of the better home field advantages in the league.

Playing this game in Texas will be a boon for the Rangers and likely help keep the score down here.

They’ve got a bevy of talented hitters and I can see them putting in work against Marquez, who had a 4.76 ERA last season.

This is another spot where I like the home team, favouring San Diego at the $1.74 price point.

San Diego haven’t looked great in Spring training, which is why I think we’re getting a bit of value here.

I think they’re the better of these two sides, with Arizona seemingly regressing in recent seasons.

They splashed in free agency with the signing of Bumgarner, but I think his best years are clearly behind him.

Chris Paddack showed a ton of promise last season and I expect him to get off to a solid pitching start here.

I like what I see from the San Diego batting lineup, with guys like Tatis, Machado, Pham, and Hosmer especially capable.

If they can tee off on Bumgarner early, Paddack and the strong bullpen have the juice to bring them home here.

We kick off the season in Washington in this excellent matchup between two of the better sides in baseball.

The Yankees open as $1.70 favourites and I like their chances of getting the job done here.

I view Gerrit Cole as one of the best pitchers in baseball and expect him to have another stellar campaign here.

The New York batting lineup is also considerably deeper than their opponents, which I expect to prove crucial.

Washington may be at home here, but the value of home field has decreased significantly this season, if not evaporated completely.

Given how their respective seasons ended up, I can also see a motivational edge for the Yankees here.

Washington could very conceivably go through a ‘World Series Hangover’ early on, while the Yankees stars appear to have stayed in excellent shape.

Combine one of the best pitchers in baseball with a strong batting lineup and a motivational edge and I like New York at this price.

I think there is some strong early value on the Giants at the current $3.60 price point.

There is a lot of variance in the average MLB game, which I think will only be accentuated this season.

Both sides haven’t had much time to prepare, only playing a combined handful of Spring training games.

With reduced travel and no fans at the games, the value of home field advantage also has to decrease.

The Giants aren’t tipped to do much, but I’d expect a significantly shortened season to play into their advantage.

While their pitching stocks aren’t particularly deep, Johnny Cueto is still an excellent starter when healthy.

Compare that to Clayton Kershaw, who has been rather outspoken about being against the return to play this season.

It’s tough to know whether he’s at 100% here, especially since he hasn’t thrown an inning all pre-season.

Overall, this is a straight-up value play on the underdog Giants.

The Dodgers are rightfully favourites here, but I think the G-Men win this often enough to make it a +EV bet.

Houston Astros

In yet another twist in this series, the home side failed to win for the 6^th time in a row. Houston were thoroughly outclassed in a 7-2 defeat, with a glaring lack of offensive production. Alex Bregman looked solid with 2 hits and an RBI, but his teammates couldn’t follow suit with Strasburg’s strong pitching. Justin Verlander was somewhat poor in his start, striking out just 3 and allowing 3 runs in his 5 innings. Zack Greinke is slated to pitch here, coming off an excellent regular season but an inconsistent post-season.

Washington Nationals

A gutsy 7-2 road win in game 6 means Washington are still well and truly in this series. Anthony Rendon should take a bow after his performance, putting this team on his back with 3 hits and 5 RBI. Stephen Strasburg was excellent as a starting pitcher, going just over 8 innings and striking out 7. Despite being unfit to start game 5, Max Scherzer is going to give it a go as the starting pitcher here. He’s been excellent when called upon all year, but I’d definitely be concerned about his injury.

Prediction: Astros $1.70

I’ve backed both sides at times during this series, although I’ve never wavered from the thought that Houston would win it all. I think they’ve got the more talented roster and a very strong home field advantage. Although their lineup has been somewhat inconsistent of late, they’ve got so many clutch big hitters that should thrive in the game 7 crucible. Greinke’s also had a storied career to date and you’d struggle to find many better options than him with your season on the line. Given that he was unfit to start literally 2 days ago, I’m also unsure how effective Scherzer will be here. If he can only go a few innings, Washington will be heavily reliant on a bullpen that has done a ton of work over the post-season. Overall, I think Houston has the talent edge, health edge, and home field advantage to get them over the line and win the World Series tonight.

Washington Nationals

The Nats just weren’t good enough last time out, getting thoroughly outplayed in an 8-1 defeat. They just couldn’t get anything going offensively, managing just 4 hits as a team. I was surprised to see Patrick Corbin start as pitcher and he allowed 4 runs during his 6 innings on the mound. The 2-3-2 format means they get this game at home, which means they absolutely need a win here. Fortunately for Washington, ace Max Scherzer will take the mound in this one, relatively fresh off of a dominant display in game 1.

Houston Astros

The Astros have put in real championship performances in the last two games, emerging victorious 8-1 last time out. Alex Bregman made headlines again offensively, going for 3 hits, 5 RBI, and one epic grand slam. Jose Urquidy was also very solid as a starting pitcher, striking out 4 and allowing 0 earned runs in his 5 innings. Ace Gerrit Cole is slated to return here, having been a pillar of consistency all season.

Prediction: Nationals $2.35

Regular readers of these MLB tips will know that I rarely bet against Houston, who’ve consistently been the best side in the league this season. However, after two straight losses, I think Washington enters this one with a sense of urgency that gives them a slight edge. Especially with this being Scherzer’s last start of the season, I think this series is all but over if they don’t win here. Scherzer has been dominant all post-season and his unique pitching style caused issues for Houston in game 1. Gerrit Cole looks like he may be wearing down after a long season and may not be 100% for this one. I expect Washington to lay it all on the line in this one, making it essentially a coinflip type of game. Getting $2.35 in the coinflip scenario, I’m happy to roll the dice with the underdog here.

Washington Nationals

After 2 impressive road wins, the Nats just couldn’t keep it rolling at home, falling 4-1 in game 3. Anibal Sanchez was a noticeable drop-off at pitcher, allowing 10 hits and 4 earned runs in just over 5 innings. The offence just couldn’t finish either, racking up a few hits but ultimately scoring just a single run. It makes sense for ace Max Scherzer to start in this one, building off a truly elite post-season thus far.

Houston Astros

The Astros entered game 3 absolutely needing a win and they dug deep to get it. Zack Greinke did just enough under Center, striking out 6 and allowing 1 earned run during 4.2 innings. Left Fielder Michael Brantley had another of his clutch offensive days, going for 2 hits and 2 RBI in the close win. I’d also expect Houston ace Gerrit Cole to pitch in this one, having been elite all year despite a minor blip in game 1.

Prediction: Astros $2

While it isn’t set in stone, I think both managers would be smart to let their best pitchers go for it here. This seems to be built into the early line, with Houston actually underdogs here with an expectation of Scherzer starting. Even so, I think he is evenly matched by the outstanding Cole, who also has an exemplary bullpen behind him. I also give Houston the offensive edge here, largely due to their strength in depth and experience. It’d be an absolute mountain to climb down 3-1, so I expect a complete performance from Houston here as they steal a second in Washington.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals became the front-runner to win the World Series after a dominant game 2 win in Houston. Stephen Strasburg was predictably solid on the mound, allowing just 2 runs while striking out 7 in 6 innings. Their offensive production was definitely the main story, scoring 12 total runs and having 3 players register multiple RBI’s. They now get to return home where they’ve been a much better team this season, needing only 2 wins in 3 to claim the title. I’d expect Patrick Corbin to start here, who went 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA through 202 innings in the regular season.

Houston Astros

Houston are in absolute disarray and will now require 2 wins from 3 away games just to stay alive. While Verlander put in an average display during his 6 innings, the bullpen had an absolute mare and conceded 8 runs in the final 3. The offence hasn’t found a spark of late either, getting held to an abysmal 2 runs through the first 8 innings last time out. Fortunately, they’ve got another elite arm on deck, with Zack Greinke being tasked with getting them back in this series.

Prediction: Astros

I’ve rode with the Astros all season and I’ll now die with them if I have to. Washington are playing with a ton of momentum right now, but I still think Houston is the better of these two sides. Corbin is a step down from Scherzer and Strasburg and isn’t as accomplished as Greinke in the post-season. I’m also expecting Houston’s depth and talent offensively to finally come through with a high-scoring performance. This team has a chance at winning 2 of 3 games in Washington, but it’s pretty much over if they can’t win game 3.