This is a pure line value play, where I’m taking Texas as $2.65 home underdogs.

I’m not sure the Angels should be $1.50 road favourites against anyone right now and would expect a close one here.

Both sides have an equal number of losses this season, with Texas 2 wins behind LA having played 2 less games.

Texas have started this series relatively well, winning both games by a combined score of 14-4.

They have a disadvantage with the pitching matchup today, with Kyle Gibson taking on Dylan Bundy from LA.

The rest of the team matches up relatively evenly with LA and I don’t think the pitching is worth such a significant line move.

I was against Miami yesterday and they got absolutely slaughtered by Atlanta 29-9.

I’m not expecting it to be by the same margin, but I like the look of Philly here as narrow $1.88 road favourites.

The Phillies have been in the midst of a solid recent run, sitting 5^th in the NL overall at 21-18.

They are currently 2.5 games ahead of Miami in the standings and have an advantage of 16 runs in run differential.

I’d mark them as clearly the better team here, especially with Miami not having a strong home field advantage.

Sandy Alcantara has had a decent season for Miami, but I think the Phillies strong lineup has an advantage there.

If Jake Arrieta can break out of his recent slump, the Phillies look strong value to take this win.

I like Atlanta in this one, looking like decent value as $1.70 home favourites.

The Braves have been one of the better sides in baseball this season, sitting top 4 in the National League at 24-18 with a plus 32 run differential.

They’ve been clearly better than Miami, who are middle of the pack at 19-18 with a neutral run difference.

Having lost the first two games to start this series, I think Atlanta will have the motivation edge here on top of their existing matchup advantages.

Their batting lineup has the potential to go off in any game and I expect them to get after Pablo Lopez here.

The worry is that Tommy Milone is starting at pitcher for the Braves and he’s been an unmitigated disaster of late.

If he can start out better here and get some support from a strong bullpen, I like Atlanta at home here.

I’m opting for a relatively convincing home underdog in my second play, taking Colorado at $2.50 against San Diego.

While the Padres have played well this season, I think they’ve become somewhat overrated in the betting market.

Colorado aren’t a terrible side either, sitting middle of the pack at 20-22.

They have struggled a bit of late, which has largely been due to poor pitching.

Senzatela returns to start for this one and he’s been one of their better options this season.

San Diego’s hitters can be prone to off nights, which could make life difficult for Zach Davies here.

Even without fans in the stands, the altitude still provides somewhat of a home field advantage for Colorado.

Combine all those factors and I think the Rockies are worth a punt at a generous $2.50 price point.

Fading the Pittsburgh Pirates has been a profitable strategy all season and I see no reason to deviate from that here.

Pittsburgh currently sit bottom of the National League with a poor 13-26 record and horrendous negative 52 run difference.

They’re taking on a very competent White Sox side here, one which has climbed up to 3^rd in the American League at 26-15.

They have a plus 53 run difference, which means there’s a gap of 105 runs between these two teams so far.

Chicago enter this series in great form, recording an impressive 4-game sweep over Kansas City this past week.

They also match up fairly well with this Pittsburgh side, comfortably winning the 2-game series a fortnight ago.

Dylan Cease is up pitching for them today and I wouldn’t expect any troubles for him against this anaemic batting lineup.

Compare that to Joe Musgrove, who’s looked terrible all season and could be in for another bad day at the office here.

While it’s a bit of a ‘square’ play, it’s tough to overlook Chicago at current odds.

I see a bit of value on the underdog here, with Baltimore currently paying a handsome $2.60 away at the Mets.

The Mets have hardly been a great team this season, siting 11^th out of 15 in the National League at 19-23.

Baltimore actually have the better record of these two teams and appear firmly in the playoff mix in the American League.

Their recent form has been great, winning 5 of their last 7 overall, including 3 straight wins over the Yankees.

They also match up relatively well here against a Mets side with a leaky pitching staff.

Michael Wacha will start for New York here, but he’s hardly been a beacon of consistency and could struggle against a rapidly improving batting lineup.

If the Orioles can get a better outing from pitcher John Means here, this $2.60 is definitely overs.

I’m going to opt for a road favourite here, this time taking Philadelphia at $1.80 away at the Mets.

Philly have quietly rebounded nicely after a poor start to the campaign, currently sitting 6^th in the NL at 19-17.

The Mets are in the midst of another middling campaign, now sitting 10^th at 19-22 after 41 games.

The Mets have largely gotten the better of this series so far, but I think the matchup overall actually favours Philly.

Zack Wheeler returns to pitch for Philly here and he’s looked like one of the better options in the majors this season.

Their struggles in this series have been largely due to poor pitching and I think he remedies that here.

Compare that to Mets pitcher David Peterson, who only has 29 career innings of big-league experience.

I can see him struggling against the strong Philly batting lineup, which should be enough to earn them the win.

It’s not often you see the Yankees as substantial underdogs, yet here they are.

They’re currently $2.25 on the road against a fairly pedestrian Toronto side and I like their chances here.

Their form has admittedly been poor, dropping to 21-19 after a terrible series against Baltimore.

Toronto are hardly world beaters either mind you, sitting in 6^th place just 1 game ahead of the Yankees.

They’re without a home field for this season so this line would suggest that they’re the considerably better side.

I just don’t see how that’s the case and would give the Yankees a fairly even shot at winning this game.

Hyun-jin Ryu always tends to get a lot of love in the betting market, but I think he’s met his match here in a very strong Yankees batting lineup.

If Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery can deliver here, I like their chances as road underdogs.

I like Atlanta in this spot, paying $1.77 at home against a pedestrian Washington side.

The Braves have been one of the better sides in the majors this season, sitting 2^nd in the NL at 23-16.

Washington are a far cry from the side that won the World Series last season, now 2^nd last in the conference at 14-24.

Admittedly, their negative 16 run difference suggests they’re not as bad as this record, but they’re way off the plus 34 of Atlanta.

The Braves are only 1-2 in this series so far, but I believe much of that is down to relatively poor pitching.

Josh Tomlin returns to the mound here and he’s been relatively dependable when called upon this season.

Patrick Corbin is a decent enough option for Washington, but I’d expect the strong Atlanta batting lineup to ultimately prove to be too much here.

This is another spot where Oakland are surprise underdogs at home.

I think they’re a better team than San Diego and like they’re matchup, with $2 looking like a great price.

I’m finding San Diego to be vastly overrated by the bookies lately, which I presume is largely to their strong run differential.

It is currently the second best in the majors at plus 51, but I think a lot of that can be attributed to some blowout wins.

Oakland is still in the midst of an excellent season, currently sitting 2^nd in the American League at 23-13.

They’ve split the series 1-1 thus far, but I like their chances here as long as they can pitch well.

Mike Fiers isn’t in the midst of his best season, although I’m willing to trust his career body of work over this small sample size.

I think he’s one par with Garrett Richards of the Padres, meaning Oakland’s batting lineup and homefield edge should win out here.

I’m opting to bet against the train wreck that is the Pirates here, taking Cincy as $1.70 road favourites.

Pittsburgh has been the worst side in all of baseball this season, going an awful 11-25 through 36 games.

They’ve got a terrible negative 50 run difference, which suggests that they’re record is what they deserve.

Cincinnati haven’t been much better, but they’re more of an average bad side.

They’re just 17-21 through their 38 games, with a negative 26 run difference to boot.

That said, they still match up relatively well with this Pittsburgh side and I see no reason why they shouldn’t roll here.

Trevor Williams has struggled all season for the Pirates and the improving Cincy batting lineup should be able to score reliably.

Anthony DeSclafani has admittedly also been poor for the Reds, but he does have a better bullpen backing him up.

I’m also not confident in Pittsburgh’s batting lineup, which looks like one of the worst in the league.

This line kind of surprised me when I first saw it, but I’ll gladly take Cleveland as $1.85 home favourites here.

They’ve had an excellent season to date, going 23-14 through their first 37 games.

They’re run differential is an outstanding plus 53, which suggests they’re probably unlucky to not have an even better record.

Milwaukee haven’t been anywhere near that good, currently sporting a pedestrian 17-19 record.

They also have a negative 36 run difference on the season, which shows that the gap between these two sides is almost 90 runs.

I also really like the pitching matchup for Cleveland here, with Aaron Civale looking steady in his early action this season.

Brandon Woodruff has been inconsistent for Milwaukee and I can see him struggling against a strong Cleveland hitting lineup.

Throw in home field and the talent edge that a 90 run differential would imply and I think the Indians are great value here.

I like the look of Tampa Bay here, decently priced at $1.74 at home against a middling Miami side.

The Rays have had a stunning start to the season, going 26-12 through 38 games with a plus 42 run differential.

They’ve been one of the best sides in the majors so far and appear to have a legitimate shot at a deep post-season run.

Miami have been improved this season over the disaster that was 2019, but they’re still an average side at best.

They’re .500 on the season through 32 games, which is surprisingly currently good enough for a playoff spot in the National League.

They have a negative 11 run differential, which suggests that their results have been fairly lucky thus far.

Tampa has a strong batting lineup and I’m expecting them to get after Pablo Lopez here.

If their pitchers can also deliver, they should win decisively here.

The love the Angels receive in the betting market continues to astound me.

I think Houston are the significantly better side here and will gladly take them at close to even money.

The Angels find themselves 14^th in the American League, currently holding a pedestrian 13-25 record.

They struggled earlier this season against Houston and their matchup disadvantages remain here.

Dylan Bundy is admittedly a decent pitching option, which is likely why the price is so even here.

That said, Lance McCullers has also held his own this season and shouldn’t have much trouble with this Angels batting lineup.

I think there is a negative bias against Houston in the market due to recent events, which leads to good value spots like these.

I’m expecting another strong outing for Houston’s big hitters here, which should ultimately prove decisive.

I’m leaning towards the Cubs in this one, currently listed as $1.65 road favourites against the terrible Pirates.

Chicago have had a very strong start to the campaign, going 22-14 with a plus 20 run difference so far.

This is in stark contrast to Pittsburgh, who currently sit bottom of the National League at 10-24 with a negative 52 run difference.

Pittsburgh is a side that is likely playing out the string at this point, which provides a real edge for motivated teams like the Cubs.

They’ve got a very strong batting lineup, one which I feel can get after a weak Pittsburgh starter and bullpen here.

Alec Mills will start for Chicago here and I don’t think he’s the greatest pitcher, although he should do enough to get the job done.

I’m opting for another Chicago road favourite here, this time taking the White Sox at $1.70 here against KC.

The White Sox are also in the midst of a very stellar campaign, going 22-15 with a strong plus 37 run differential.

Kansas City are another side that just hasn’t lived up to the hype this season, going a poor 14-23 so far. Their negative 32 run differential suggests that this record isn’t due to bad luck either.

They’ve struggled mightily on offense of late, something I don’t see improving against the increasingly consistent Dylan Cease.

I’ve been impressed by Chicago’s batting lineup this season, one which I think has real top-end quality.

Danny Duffy is a decent pitcher for Kansas City, but I think the Sox have the matchup edge here and should score freely.

If their pitching staff can put in a solid outing on the other end, this should be a relatively comfortable win.

I tipped the Cardinals yesterday as big road underdogs and I’m opting for the same approach here.

Cincinnati appear to be getting a ton of love in the betting markets, something I’m not sure is warranted for a 15-21 team.

St Louis have been in some very strong recent form, actually moving into the top 5 in the National League with a 14-13 record.

I think the Cardinals have a real matchup advantage in this series, as they appear to have proved thus far with their 2-0 start.

Their hitters appear to have found a groove against this Cincy pitching lineup, especially Brad Miller with a whopping 7 RBI last time out.

Tyler Mahle hasn’t been anything special for Cincinnati of late and I’m not sure he warrants the huge favourite tag here.

If Oviedo can continue some of his strong form in the minors, I like the Cards as rank outsiders here.

I’m leaning towards another relatively large underdog here, this time taking the Tigers at $2.40 on the road.

I’m no huge believer in this Detroit side, but I’m also not sure Milwaukee should be $1.58 favourites over anyone at the moment.

They’ve been awful this season en route to a poor 16-19 record.

Their run differential is an abysmal negative 39, which actually suggests they’ve outperformed their stats this season.

Detroit are better in both categories, currently above .500 at 17-16 and with a more modest negative 10 run difference.

Spencer Turnbull is probably the slightly better of these two pitchers, which is yet another advantage in Detroit’s favour.

I don’t think either side has a particularly strong batting lineup, so we can essentially call this a wash.

With most matchups favouring the Tigers in this one, I’ll gladly take the $2.40 currently on offer.

The Cardinals are considerable $2.35 road underdogs here, but I don’t mind their chances away at Cincinnati.

They’ve rebounded very well from all the COVID disruption, currently sitting .500 with a positive run differential.

This is significantly better than their opponent here, who are just 15-20 with a negative 15 differential through 35.

St Louis also started this series off well, showing off their matchup advantages in a comfortable 7-5 win last time out.

The Reds just haven’t been consistent all season and I think they’d be hard-pressed to earn a playoff spot at this point.

I’ve also been impressed with the early starts of Kwang-hyun Kim for St Louis, who has been very economical in 3 outings so far.

If he can keep this up against a relatively pedestrian Cincy attack, another road upset is certainly in play here.

I’m opting to go with another underdog here, this time taking Minnesota as slight outsiders at home.

It’d take a brave man to bet against the White Sox at this point, but I’ve also been impressed by what I’ve seen from Minnesota so far.

They now sit 7^th in the American League with a 20-16 record and a plus 24 run differential.

The White Sox sit slightly above them in both categories, but they’ve been getting a lot of love in the betting markets and are becoming a little overvalued.

Michael Pineda is a decent pitching option for Minny overall, going an impressive 11-5 last season.

Dallas Keuchel is also very strong for the White Sox, but I think this deep Minnesota batting lineup is up to the task here.

If their offence is in gear, I think the pitching does enough to get them a win as a home underdog here.