Tuesday, August 18

Tuesday, August 18

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox, 9:05 am
Yankees $1.60

I’m opting for the Yankees here in this battle of the ‘Heavyweights’, currently paying $1.60.

New York are in the midst of another stellar campaign, currently sitting 2nd in the American League at 15-6.

The Red Sox have had one of their worst starts to a season in franchise history, sitting dead last in the conference at 6-16.

I love the matchup for the Yankees here, who’ve already won the first 3 of this 4-game series.

Their pitching staff has been stellar throughout, containing a Red Sox attack that just hasn’t gotten going.

Jordan Montgomery takes the mound for the Yankees here and I’m relatively confident in a solid outing from him.

He appears a better option than counterpart Martin Perez, who just doesn’t inspire much market confidence.

Throw in the considerably better bullpen and batting lineup and I’m banking on a New York sweep here.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers, 10:10 am
White Sox $1.67

I’m banking on Chicago to get the job done here, currently paying $1.67 at home against Detroit.

The White Sox have had the slightly better season so far, going exactly .500 through 22 games.

Detroit are just behind them at 9-10, with an admittedly worse run differential.

Not only do I think Chicago are the better team in general, they also match up relatively well with this Detroit side.

The Tigers don’t have an especially strong offense and I’d expect them to struggle against the usually reliable Gio Gonzalez.

Matthew Boyd has struggled mightily for Detroit this season and I don’t anticipate him finding much relief against this batting lineup.

Especially without a great bullpen, I can see a strong Chicago batting performance leading the way here.

 

Monday, August 17

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians, 3:15 am
Indians $1.65

I’m opting for what I perceive to be a strong value favourite here, taking the Indians at $1.65 odds.

They’ve been impressive in claiming two wins to start the series and I’m expecting them to clinch the sweep here.

They’re a good overall side, with a solid pitching staff and dependable batting lineup.

Adam Plutko returns to the mound here after enjoying a very strong start to the season.

Detroit have really faded after a strong start to the season, largely due to a lack of offense.

This side doesn’t really have the hitting talent to sustain them for a full season and I think they’re at a disadvantage against Cleveland’s pitching staff.

Michael Fulmer hasn’t been a great pitching option for Detroit either and their bullpen isn’t exactly stocked.

This should bode well for the likes of Lindor, Santana, and Reyes in the Indians batting lineup as they go for the sweep.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers, 4:20 am
Cubs $1.77

I’m taking the Cubs at home to Milwaukee here, currently paying out solid $1.77 odds.

They’ve lost 2 out of 3 in this series to the Brewers, which I feel has undervalued them in the market.

They do match up rather well with this team and their pitching staff has generally done its job, but they’ve struggled on offense.

The pitching staff should get even more of a boon here, with Jon Lester fit and firing as the starter.

I think he’s got a major advantage over opposite number Josh Lindblom, who has struggled mightily this season.

This should also help out a strong Cubs batting lineup, which has definitely underperformed during this series.

Overall, I’m not worried about the 13-5 Cubs and expect them to level this series here.

Sunday, August 16

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets, 8:05 am
Mets $2.50

While I think Philly are rightly favoured here, I’m backing the $2.50 Mets as a pure value play.

Philly have had a rather poor and disjointed start to the season, going just 6-9 through their first 15.

The Mets admittedly haven’t fared much better, going 9-12 to be slightly ahead of their opponents.

The current $1.55 price on Philly suggests that they’re clearly the better team and should win the vast majority of the time, which I just don’t see here.

This is a team that is fresh of getting swept by the Baltimore Orioles of all teams and narrowly won the series opener yesterday.

Aaron Nola is a strong pitcher that tends to get support in the market, but I think he’s simply been overvalued here.

Despite struggling so far this season, Steven Matz is a reasonable option for the Mets who should help keep this one close.

The Mets should be around $2.20, so I’ll gladly take the extra value here.

LA Angels vs LA Dodgers, 11:40 am
Dodgers $1.67

This is oddly one of the more evenly priced matchups of the day and I’ll take the Dodgers at $1.67.

The Angels have had another disappointing season so far, managing only 7 wins in their first 20.

Not only do the Dodgers have the exact opposite of that record, they’ve also got an impressive plus 51 run differential.

This suggests that they’ve outperformed their already strong record and are potentially undervalued in the current market.

I like the pitching matchup for them here, with Walker Buehler going up against Heaney.

Buehler has been one of the better starters in the majors of late and he’s got a very capable bullpen backing him up.

The Angels pitching staff has struggled for the majority of the season and I don’t see things improving against this excellent Dodgers lineup.

$1.67 looks like a good value price all things considered and I’m banking on the Dodgers to increase their lead in the NL West.

Saturday, August 15

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers, 10:15 am
Cubs $2.05

I like the Cubs as home underdogs here and was very surprised to see them out at $2.05.

They’ve been probably the best side in the National League this season, accumulating an impressive 13-3 record so far.

It’s not like Milwaukee have been all that impressive either, going just 7-10 from their 17 games.

Fresh off a sweep over the Indians, the Cubs started this series with a solid 4-2 win yesterday.

Milwaukee do have some talented offensive players, but they haven’t been able to get going all season.

The battle between the starting pitchers is also relatively even, and the Cubs appear to have the bullpen edge.

They’ve opened the season on fire offensively and I don’t see them slowing down any time soon.

Give me the better team at home getting plus money here.

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers, 10:40 am
Rockies $2.05

A similar situation as above, with the Rockies surprise $2.05 home underdogs.

Colorado have also been a surprise package this season, sitting behind only the Cubs at 12-6.

They did have a series loss to Arizona last time out, but they still sit atop the NL West and look ripe for a playoff berth.

Their hitters have been in some very good recent form, but it was their pitchers who’ve let them down of late.

The Rangers don’t exactly have the best offence and are a middling 8-9 on the season so far.

Ryan Castellani is set to start for Colorado here and I’m confident he can at least provide a handful of solid innings.

Lance Lynn has been good for Texas this season, but I think he’s now become a little overvalued in the market.

If the Rockies hitters can continue their strong form, they should win this as home underdogs.

Friday, August 14

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals, 3:10 am
Mets $1.80

Both sides currently reside near the middle of the National League, with neither able to get above .500.

Although they have a slightly worse record so far, I’m going to take the Mets as narrow home favourites here.

After all of their success last season, Washington have had a very disjointed and disappointing 2020.

They’ve dealt with COVID scares on their own roster and that of their opponents and have really struggled to find a rhythm.

The Mets aren’t too far off the pace despite a poor start and I like the matchup for them here.

Their hitters have been solid for most of the season, especially in their 11-run outing against this same Nationals side yesterday.

Where they’ve often been let down is on the pitching staff, who’ve generally struggled to slow down the opposition batters.

I like what I’ve seen from young Mets pitcher David Peterson and I think he can contain a Washington lineup heavily reliant on Juan Soto.

If Alonso and Co can do their jobs for New York, $1.80 is good value here.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays, 6:30 am
Red Sox $2.40

It’s not often you see the Boston Red Sox with a 6-12 record sitting at the bottom of the American League.

They’ve had a horror start to the season, but I think that’s led to them becoming way undervalued here.

Tampa are strong opponents and objectively the better team, but I don’t think Boston should be $2.40 home underdogs in this one.

Boston have already lost the first 3 of this series and I’d expect them to be motivated to avoid the sweep here.

Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow is also becoming a bit overvalued in the market and is coming off a horror show against the Yankees last time out.

Kyle Hart steps in to make his major league debut for Boston and there’s definitely some unknown there.

I doubt the Rays have had too much time to study his form and could see a strong debut performance.

Boston still have a bevy of solid hitters, so an improved pitching performance would give them a real shot here.

 

Thursday, August 13

Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins, 8:40 am
Marlins $2.40

Both of these sides have had incredibly disjointed seasons thus far and have handled them relatively well.

The Marlins have been in some relatively good form early, going 7-4 with a positive RD through their first 11.

Toronto have remained competitive in the American League, within striking distance at 6-8.

I think these two sides are relatively even on paper, so I’ll take the value on Miami at strong $2.40 odds.

Toronto is without a home base for this season, meaning they don’t even get the slight bump for home field here.

Miami have been impressive from a pitching standpoint to open the season, with their starters and bullpen doing a capable job.

Jordan Yamamoto was one of their better pitchers last season and I can see him building on that in 2020.

Their batting lineup also appears to be much improved this season and we’ve seen the dividends on that pay off early.

The Toronto pitching staff doesn’t fill me with too much confidence, so I’d expect the Miami hitters to do enough to win here.

Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals, 8:40 am
Reds $1.80

Another play I like today is Cincinnati over Kansas City, with the Reds currently listed at $1.80 home favourites.

Neither side has been particularly impressive this season, with Cincy at 8-9 and KC down at 7-11.

The Reds do seem to match up well with this Royals side, which was somewhat on display in their 6-5 win yesterday.

Their hitters should have a field day against this staff and I can see the likes of Suarez, Votto, and Castellanos really carrying this team.

Not to mention the fact that they’ve got the very reliable Wade Miley on the mound here.

He looked awful in his debut against Chicago a fortnight ago, but I’m more inclined to trust his 1400+ inning career sample.

Brad Keller is a similar level of pitcher for KC, but the Reds look to have the better bullpen.

It should be a close one, but this is a spot where I’m backing the Cincy hitters at home.

Wednesday, August 12

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 10:40 am
Rockies $1.96

The Rockies are slight underdogs at hoe here, but I think they’re decent value at home here against Arizona at $1.96.

Colorado have been one of the best teams in the majors so far, accumulating an 11-4 record and plus 31 run difference.

Compare that with Arizona, who are just 6-10 with a negative 29 run differential.

This suggests that there’s a seismic gap between the two sides, which is why it’s especially curious that Colorado are underdogs.

I don’t think they’re at a huge disadvantage on the pitching matchup, with Kyle Freeland at least proving himself to be a reliable option.

Zac Gallen has looked good so far for Arizona, but doesn’t have near a large enough sample for me to trust him yet.

The Rockies have shown just how good their hitting lineup is this season and wouldn’t have such a strong record and differential without it.

If I’m getting the significantly better team as home underdogs, you best believe I’m taking it.

LA Angels vs Oakland A’s, 11:40 am
A's $2.30

Another day, another fade of the LA Angels.

This price really doesn’t make sense, with the Angels as $1.65 home favourites and a much better Oakland side out at $2.30.

The Angels currently sit bottom of the American League at 5-11, odds on to move to 5-12 based on their current score.

Oakland remain atop the conference at 12-4, with a very good chance to move to 13-4.

Given the above info, you’d think Oakland are at a huge disadvantage in the pitching matchup to warrant this price.

But with the consistent and reliable Mike Fiers on the mound, this just isn’t the case. If anything, I’d have him as a slightly better option than his opposite number Dylan Bundy.

With another curious price point, I’m not going to overthink things here. Give me the significantly better team at strong $2.30 value.

Tuesday, August 11

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves, 8:10 am
Braves $2.35

I’m liking the underdog Braves in this one, currently at tasty $2.35 odds.

Philly have had an incredibly disjointed season thus far and are only 4-6 in the games they’ve actually played.

Atlanta have looked far more competent this season, going 11-6 through 17 with a plus 27 run differential.

The Braves pitching staff has looked quite impressive during this series, containing Philly to an average of under 3 runs a game.

I don’t mind the pitching matchup for them here either, with Sean Newcomb returning to the mound.

He hasn’t had the best season so far, which is why I assume they’re such large underdogs, but I’ll trust his career record over this small sample.

I’m also liking what I’m seeing from the Atlanta batting lineup, especially the top 4 in Acuna, Swanson, Freeman, and Ozuna.

In what I think is a coin-flip game, I’ll gladly take 35 cents of value on Atlanta.

LA Angels vs Oakland Athletics, 11:40 am
A's $1.77

I’ve had decent success this season fading the Angels, a trend which I’m hoping will continue here.

They sit dead last in the American League, with a poor 5-11 record from their first 16.

Oakland actually find themselves atop the conference after an impressive start, going 12-4 with a plus 23 run differential.

They enter this clash in red hot form, winning their last 9 games, including a sweep over Houston last time out.

Despite all these factors, the A’s are just $1.77 favourites, which definitely looks like great value.

The market likely doesn’t have too much confidence in Oakland pitcher Sean Manaea, who hasn’t started the season well.

That said, his career numbers indicate that he’s a good pitcher at this level and I’ll back him to turn things around.

Teheran is a decent starter for LA, but the bullpen is nothing special and I can see the Oakland hitters going after him here.

Monday, August 10

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees, 3:15 am
Yankees $1.88

In probably the marquee matchup of the day, I’m taking the Yankees as very slight $1.88 favourites.

They’ve started the campaign with a very impressive 10-5 record, also notching a plus 15 run differential.

Tampa haven’t been as effective, going just 7-8 with a neutral differential.

James Paxton is set to take the mound for New York here, having established himself as a very consistent option over the past few seasons.

Charlie Morton is a solid starter for Tampa, but the Yank’s bullpen depth gives them the pitching edge here.

The two hitting lineups can barely be compared, with the likes od LeMahieu, Judge, Stanton, and Voit clearly ahead of their competition.

Having lost two of the first 3 in this series, I’m expecting the Yankees to level the score here.

Texas Rangers vs LA Angels, 4:40 am
Rangers $2.15

This is one of the more lower profile games of the day, but I like the look of Texas at $2.15.

Neither side has looked good at all this season, with both notching just 5 wins thus far.

Texas find themselves slightly above LA in the table, having played two less games.

I’d project the Rangers as slight favourites here, so we’re getting about 20-25 cents of value at this line.

Rangers pitcher Lance Lynn has had an excellent start to the season, giving up just 1 earned run through his first 3 starts.

The Rangers appear to be a different team when he steps up to the mound and I’d expect one of their better performances here.

Andrew Heaney is a decent option for the Angels, but he doesn’t have the same top-end level nor consistency as Lynn.

As long as Trout doesn’t get going for the Angels, I can’t help but like this $2.15 Texas price point.

Sunday, August 9

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins, 9:05 am
Twins $1.60

Minnesota have been the best team in the American League thus far, racing out to a 10-4 start with a plus 28 run differential.

Wins have been much harder to come by for Kansas City, who are second to last in the conference with just 5 wins from 15 games.

Kansas City pulled off a surprise win in the series opener yesterday, but I’m banking on Minnesota to turn that around here.

Jake Odorizzi is back on the mound for the Twins here, coming off an excellent 2019 where he went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA.

I like him much more than Danny Duffy for the Royals, who is yet to have an ERA under 4 in any of his starts this season.

The Twins also have a ton of excellent offensive players to maximize this advantage, with Kepler, Cruz, and Rosario leading the way.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds, 9:10 am
Brewers $1.92

The odds look very even in this one, with both sides coming in at $1.92.

Neither side has had a great start to the campaign, with Milwaukee at 5-6 and Cincinnati at 6-8.

The pitching matchup is also relatively even, with DeSclafani and Anderson both proving to be consistent solid starters.

I place a slight advantage on home field and also believe Milwaukee has the better hitters, making them decent value at $1.92.

They also started the series with a poor 8-3 defeat, which should provide them with an intrinsic edge to level the score here.

Their offense hasn’t been too explosive this season, but they’ve definitely got the players to make that happen.

Christian Yelich is an elite Left Fielder, while Smoak and Garcia are very capable supporting bats.

If Anderson can deliver his usual solid pitching, I like the Brewers hitters to prove the difference here.