Friday, August 28

Friday, August 28

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies, 8:40 am
Phillies $2.65

Relatively limited selection of markets today, but I see some value in Philly as $2.65 road underdogs.

Washington are in the midst of an awful title defense, going just 11-17 overall and a pedestrian 4-12 at home.

Philly admittedly haven’t been much better, going just 12-14 on the season so far.

The main reason for backing them here is the pure value on offer, as I think these sides are near even.

Max Scherzer is overpriced in the market as per usual, already getting 70% of the early money in on Washington.

Spencer Howard is largely unproven for the Phillies, but I’d expect him to hold his own against an out-of-form Washington lineup.

Philly still boast a talented bevy of hitters of their own, which I think will be enough to remain competitive here.

Texas Rangers vs Oakland A’s, 8:40 am
A's $1.55

The A’s are in the midst of a phenomenal run right now and you’d have to say they’re in with a shot at the world series at this point.

They continue to sit atop the American League with a 22-10 record and an excellent run differential.

I think they match up rather well with this Texas side and are on course to claim a series victory here.

Chris Bassitt will take the mound for them here and he’s been one of the best pitchers in the majors this season.

Texas don’t exactly have a strong batting lineup and I think he’s more than capable of another strong day at the office.

Jordan Lyles is slated to pitch for Texas here and he’s been one of the worst pitchers in the majors this season.

Last time out against Seattle, he gave up 11 hits and 8 earned runs in just 4 innings of action.

This doesn’t bode well against an in-form Oakland offense, which should be able to run riot here.

Thursday, August 26

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs, 9:15 am
Cubs $1.65

I’m taking Chicago here in my first play of the day, currently instilled as $1.65 road favourites.

They’ve had a very solid season so far, sitting 2nd in the National League with an 18-11 record.

The Tigers, on the other hand, have predictably struggled this season.

They’re just 12-16 through their 28 games, also having a negative 31 run differential.

The pitching matchup also heavily favours Chicago here, with ace Jon Lester set to take the mound.

I think he’s a much better option than Fulmer for Detroit and should have a relatively clean day against an anaemic offense.

Chicago also have a talented lineup of their own, particularly with the likes of Rizzo and Baez up top.

If they play up to their potential here, it should be a relatively comfortable win.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies, 11:45 am
Rockies $2

This figures to be a rather close matchup, but I’ll take Colorado as narrow $2 road dogs.

They’ve dipped a little of late after a fairly strong start, now 14-15 and 7th in the conference.

Arizona haven’t been any better, with a 13-17 record through 30 games and an atrocious negative 25 run differential.

I think the Rockies match up relatively well here, which proved to be the case in Tuesday’s series opener.

The Diamondbacks have a thin batting lineup and have largely struggled to generate reliable offense this season.

Their pitching staff has also been inconsistent to say the least, evidenced by their poor run differential.

Jon Gray hasn’t had the best season for Colorado, but he’s still been a dependable pitcher for his career and I’d back him to turn it around.

If the hitters can continue their decent run of form, I like them as road underdogs here.

Wednesday, August 26

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox, 8:40 am
Blue Jays $1.80

I’ve been fading Boston at nearly every opportunity of late and intend to continue doing so here.

I think Toronto are the markedly better of these two sides right now and look like decent value at $1.80.

Despite all that has gone against them this season, the Blue Jays sit relatively pretty at 14-13 through 27 games.

The Red Sox remain at the cellar of the American League, having won just 9 of their first 29 games.

While they possess a decent batting lineup, their pitching staff is absolutely decimated right now.

They’re struggling to produce 9 innings of quality on a nightly basis, which could prove crucial here.

Toronto’s offense has looked solid of late and they’ve got a bevy of strong hitters that could really eat here.

If Chase Anderson continues his strong form with the ball, they look like great value here.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds, 10:15 am
Brewers $1.88

Neither of these sides has had a great start to 2020, but I’ll back the Brewers as narrow $1.88 home favourites.

Both of these sides are currently 11-15 and will require a marked improvement over the second half of the season to even sniff the playoffs.

I do think the Brewers have the slight edge in this matchup, somewhat evidenced by their win in the series opener yesterday.

Cincinnati aren’t exactly a deep team and they’ve struggled on the pitching side this season.

The Brewers have some very good bats that just haven’t gotten going yet, which could be due to change in this matchup.

Brandon Woodruff has also been solid for Milwaukee so far and he definitely gives them the edge here.

If you give me the better pitcher and home field at near even money, I’m generally inclined to take it.

Tuesday, August 25

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins, 8:10 am
Nationals $1.85

I like the look of Washington here, currently instilled as rather small $1.85 home favourites.

They have had a bit of a disjointed season so far, but let’s not forget that this is the current world champion.

They’ve still got a bunch of talent across the park, particularly in the batting ranks with the likes of Turner, Eaton, and Soto.

I also think they match up relatively well with Miami, backed up by their 3 wins through the first 4 games of this series.

Austin Voth is slated to get the start here, and his relatively poor form is likely the reason for this high price.

I think he’s capable of doing enough against a rather thin Miami batting lineup, with his own hitters getting the job done at home.

Houston Astros vs LA Angels, 11:15 am
Astros $1.62

I’ve faded the Angels a fair amount this season and I’m back on that train again here.

Despite the controversy surrounding them, I still think Houston are one of the better sides in baseball.

They haven’t had a great season so far, but they’re still definitely in the mix at 15-13.

They’ve had a fairly difficult early schedule, which has somewhat undervalued them in the market.

I rate them as a considerably better side than the Angels, who have won just 9 out of 29 games and have a terrible run differential.

The Houston offense can be much better than what we’ve seen so far, especially with the likes of Springer, Altuve, and Correa leading off.

Frambler Valdez is set to get a lot of the pitching action here and he has a very solid 1.72 ERA for the season.

The Angels are heavily reliant on Mike Trout and I just don’t like their chances if he doesn’t fire here.

Monday, August 24

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox, 3:05 am
Orioles $2.10

Fading the Red Sox has been excellent value of late, especially when they’ve been favourites.

The Sox are a very pedestrian 9-18 on the season, including 5-8 on the road and 3-7 in their last 10.

They’ve generally been overvalued in the market all season, mainly because they’ve got a decent hitting lineup.

Their problems are all in the pitching department, where they’ve been missing most of their best pitchers through injury/COVID.

This has put a ton of pressure on the bullpen to start and finish games, leading to some very tired arms in that clubhouse.

Baltimore have been much more competitive this season and I think they’ve got a decent chance here.

Neither Zack Godley or Wade LeBlanc has impressed so far, but Baltimore has a deeper bullpen if things go awry.

At $2.10, there are much worse bets on the board today.

Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, 6:10 am
A's $1.77

These two sides seemingly play each other every other day and Oakland have often looked like tantalizing value.

They’ve managed an impressive 19-8 record so far, going 12-3 at home and 7-3 in their last 10.

This is in stark contrast to LA, who are just 8-19 overall, 3-10 on the road and 2-8 in their last 10.

Oakland have been tremendous this season and stand as good a chance as anyone to claim the world series in these strange circumstances.

LA teams often tend to get too much love in the betting markets, especially when they aren’t particularly good.

Dylan Bundy is a pitcher that punters tend to love backing, which generally leads to some overvalued markets.

Frankie Montas has done a stellar job for Oakland this season and I expect that to continue against a relatively thin batting lineup.

At $1.77, give me the significantly better side at home here.

Sunday, August 23

St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds, 10:15 am
Reds $2

I’m going to take the underdog Reds on the road here, currently paying out decent $2 odds.

St Louis have had an incredibly disjointed season, playing just 15 games and sitting 7-8 on the year.

The Reds aren’t exactly sitting pretty at 11-13, but they’ve underperformed this season and appear to have found a groove late.

This series has gone 1-1 thus far, but I think Cincy has the matchup advantages to claim the win here.

Firstly, I think they’ve got a pretty strong edge in the pitching battle here.

Wade Miley is a very competent veteran who should be able to hold his own against this batting lineup.

I’m not as confident in Hwang-hyun Kim for St Louis, who had just 4.2 innings of Major League pitching experience.

The Reds have some strong sluggers atop the order and should be able to get over the line with a big offensive day here.

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros, 11:10 am
Astros $2.05

I’m taking another underdog for my second bet today, this time backing Houston at $2.05 on the road against San Diego.

The Astros have been in very good form of late, managing consecutive sweeps over Seattle and Colorado.

San Diego have looked solid to go 15-12 thus far, but I’m not sure this specific matchup really suits them.

Zach Davies has been effective of late for the Padres, but he’ll definitely have his work cut out for him against a strong batting lineup.

Houston’s hitters have really dusted off the cobwebs of late, which has been the main reason for their resurgent form.

Young pitcher Brandon Bielak has also been a revelation thus far, going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his early MLB action.

San Diego’s lineup can be hit or miss, so a good pitching day from Bielak could really lay the foundation for a win.

Saturday, August 22

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays, 8:40 am
Rays $1.60

I’m liking Tampa Bay at home to Toronto here, currently paying solid $1.60 odds.

The Blue Jays have had a fairly disjointed .500 season so far and I have to imagine fatigue is getting to them.

Tampa enters this one buoyed after a 3-game sweep of the Yankees, now holding the 2nd best record in the conference.

They’ve pitched very well of late, a trend I expect to continue with the solid Ryan Yarbrough slated to start.

This Tampa batting lineup is also in excellent form and I’d expect them to get after Matt Shoemaker of the Rays here.

As long as they don’t have a letdown game here, I won’t overtake this one and take a better Rays side at home.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 11:45 am
Diamondbacks $1.85

The Giants have had a very disappointing season so far, currently sitting 2nd bottom in the NL with a 10-16 record.

Arizona didn’t start the season well, yet a strong recent run seems them at 13-12 after 25 games.

Pitching has been the achilles heel for the G-Men this season and I’m not at the point where I trust Logan Webb yet.

The Diamondbacks still have some very solid hitters leading the way and I can see them getting after him here.

Robbie Ray isn’t exactly an elite starter for Arizona, but he’s a steady and consistent option that should be able to get the job done.

The Giants just don’t have enough hitting to get them over the line in most games, evidenced by their terrible run differential.

$1.85 isn’t half bad for this solid Arizona side, especially with no tangible home field advantage either way.

Friday, August 21

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros, 5:10 am
Astros $2.10

I’m taking a gamble on the underdog Astros here, backing them at plus money on the road at Colorado.

Both of these sides have had relatively good starts at 13-10 and I can see them both featuring in the post-season.

Houston have narrowly won the first 2 games in this series and look set to comfortably win the 3rd at the time of writing.

I think they match up very well with this Rockies side and can pull off a clean sweep here.

Colorado have really struggled offensively throughout this series and I can see more of the same here.

Houston exploded offensively last time out and I think they match up well with Rockies pitcher German Marquez here.

As long as they’re able to contain Colorado on defense, I like the underdog Astros to pull off the sweep.

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers, 9:10 am
Twins $1.85

I very much like Minnesota in my 2nd play of the day, currently available at strong $1.85 odds.

They’ve been one of the better sides in baseball so far, racing out to an impressive 16-8 record.

They’ve been especially good at home, going 11-2 in their first 13 games.

Milwaukee are a rather pedestrian side this season and have gone exactly .500 at 11-11.

The series is evenly matched through 2 games, but I think Minnesota have the matchup advantages to claim the win here.

For starters, they’ve got one of the better pitchers in the league in Jose Berrios set to start here.

Milwaukee have a few strong top-end hitting options, but they aren’t especially deep and I don’t expect a huge offensive performance.

Brandon Woodruff will pitch for the Brewers here and again, he’s a middle-of-the-road type of starter.

Guys like Kepler, Cruz, and Rosario are elite hitters for Minnesota and I expect them to bring home the win here.

Thursday, August 20

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays, 3:05 am
Orioles $2

I’m taking the Orioles at home to Toronto here, currently paying rather generous $2 odds.

Baltimore have had a decent start to the campaign, going 12-10 overall and 7-3 over their last 10.

Toronto have had an incredibly disjointed season and sit below .500 at 8-11.

Baltimore’s hitters have tended to do a good job this season, but they’ve been vulnerable to some weak pitching performances.

Tommy Milone takes the mound for them here and he’s been one of their more consistent recent performers.

There isn’t a hugely strong bullpen to support him, but Toronto’s batting lineup has tended to struggle for most of the season.

I can also see their hitters enjoying some success against an inconsistent Toronto pitching staff.

With a slight edge for home field, I like the $2 odds on offer.

Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies, 3:35 am
Phillies $1.67

The Red Sox season has been going from bad to worse and they sit outright last in the American League.

Philly have had a bit of a disjointed season so far, but appear to be holding it together with an 8-9 record.

They’re a very talented side on paper and appear to match up very well with Boston, making the $1.67 price point look like good value.

They got off to a great start in this series yesterday, with the trio of McCutchen, Hoskins, and Harper doing damage in the top order.

Their pitching hasn’t been great of late, but they’ll get a boon here with the return of Jake Arrieta.

The veteran pitcher has had a great career and a solid season so far, matching up well with this weak Red Sox lineup.

Red Sox pitcher Kyle Hart has thrown just 2 prior innings at MLB level, with an ERA of 22.50.

This just doesn’t bode well against Philly’s hitters, who I’m expecting to do some damage here.

Wednesday, August 19

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals, 9:10 am
Braves $1.80

I see some value on Atlanta here, currently $1.80 at home against the Nationals.

They’ve been nothing overly special this season, but the Braves do sit 5th in the National League with a solid 14-10 record and good run differential.

Washington haven’t been able to back up their very strong last season, sitting 4th from bottom in the NL at 8-12.

The Braves started the series with a 7-6 win last time out and the matchup is strong enough that I’d expect them to continue that form.

Their batting lineup has looked much improved of late and I think they’ve got a real opportunity here against the inexperienced Austin Voth.

Josh Tomlin has pitched solidly for the Braves of late and he also has a good bullpen behind him if needed.

With matchup advantages across the park and home field, I like the Braves at good $1.80 odds.

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers, 10:10 am
White Sox $1.60

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. At the time of writing, Chicago appear very likely to claim a Tuesday win over Detroit.

I think all the matchups are very favourable for them here and would expect them to do the same again.

Detroit look like they could be in for another disappointing campaign, sitting just 9-11 from their first 20 contests.

Dylan Cease is slated to pitch for the White Sox here and I think he matches up well with the Detroit lineup.

Chicago matches up even better on the other end, taking on debutant pitcher Tarik Skubal.

Their batting lineup has been much improved of late and I’d expect more of the same against a weak Detroit pitching staff.

$1.60 isn’t a huge price, but it’s good enough value in my opinion.