NLCS – Game 4

NLCS – Game 4

Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers, 11:10 am
Dodgers

I’m going to back the Dodgers to level up the series at 2 games apiece here.

They got well and truly back on track last time out, scoring a whopping 11 runs in the first inning to win 15-3.

Ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw is set to start for this one, which would provide a huge boost for his teammates.

Their start to the series obviously hasn’t been great, but there is considerable regular season evidence to suggest they’re the much better side.

Not only did the Dodgers win 8 more games than Atlanta this season, their run difference is also 76 runs better.

Bryse Wilson is set to pitch for Atlanta here and I think he’s a noticeable step down from their top options.

The Dodgers showed they can get after Atlanta’s pitching yesterday and I’m ultimately expecting more of the same here.

They also figure to be highly motivated to win again as a 3-1 deficit would leave them as major underdogs.

With the talent edge, matchup advantages, and unquestioned motivation, I like the Dodgers to level things up.

Thursday, October 15

Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers, 9:05 am
Dodgers

They entered this series as the overwhelming title favourites, but the Dodgers find themselves in a 2-0 hole in the NLCS.

I think the late injury to Kershaw yesterday really hurt them both on and off the field and let to a subpar pitching performance.

They should be able to get back on track here, with projected starter Julio Urias having shown some strong recent form.

Kyle Wright just hasn’t been as consistent for Atlanta, recording an ERA over 5 throughout the regular season.

He is coming up against an excellent Dodgers batting lineup, one which has their back against the wall.

I think they get after Wright here, while their pitching does enough to get the job done.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays, 11:40 am
Astros $2.20

This series appears to be all but over, with Tampa winning each of the first 3 matches relatively comfortably.

I’m going to opt for the underdog here, taking Houston at $2.20 to keep their season alive.

Besides the obvious motivational edge, the return of pitcher Zack Greinke should do wonders here.

Greinke is still one of the best pitchers in the league and is probably best equipped to limit this strong Rays batting lineup.

On the flipside, Tyler Glasnow is set to start at pitcher for the Rays.

He’s also a top-level pitcher, but he struggled mightily against the Yankees and faces a good Houston lineup here.

Houston absolutely haven’t fired offensively in this series, but you’d have to say they’re due with the likes of Springer, Altuve, Brantley, and Bregman.

This is a side that won’t go down without a fight and I’ll take them as underdogs here.

Wednesday, October 14

LA Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves, 9:05 am
Dodgers $1.60

I’m going to take the Dodgers to rebound from their game 1 loss, currently paying $1.60 to win here.

Game 1 was much closer than the final scoreline would suggest and it was only a last-inning flurry that got Atlanta over the line.

Ace Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound here and I’d expect him to build off his strong recent form.

Ian Anderson hasn’t been as consistent for Atlanta and should struggle against a very good Dodgers batting lineup.

The Dodgers were much better than Atlanta throughout the season, winning 8 more games and securing a much better run differential.

Having lost game 1, I have to think they’ll also be the more motivated team here.

If they leave it all out on the field, I’d expect them to level the series.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays, 11:45 am
Astros $1.92

I’ve had success backing Tampa in the first two games and I see no reason to deviate from that here.

Despite two convincing wins to start out, the odds have actually shifted in their favour, with both sides equally priced at $1.92.

I think they’ve got the edge in the pitching matchup here, with Ryan Yarbrough going up against the inexperienced Urquidy.

This matchup should prove crucial here as I’d expect Tampa’s hitters to really get after Urquidy.

Despite their form in recent seasons, Houston just hasn’t been all that good in 2019.

A negative win/loss record and neutral run differential suggest that they’re lucky to even get in the playoffs.

Compare this to a Tampa side that was comfortably best in the American League this season and it’s a clear mismatch.

As long as Tampa can avoid complacency, I think they’re great value here at even money.

Tuesday, October 13

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros, 7:05 am
Rays $1.74

Tampa started this series with a win yesterday and I’m backing them to get the job done here again at $1.74.

They weren’t particularly impressive offensively, but their pitching staff really clamped down on Houston, which I’d expect to become a theme going forward.

While Houston have had a relatively good playoff run, they were definitely off the pace in the regular season.

They were actually below .500 at 29-31, while Tampa sauntered to the best record in the Conference at 40-20.

The gap between these sides probably isn’t as big as those numbers suggest, but Tampa definitely appears to be the better all-round team.

I think they’ve also got a good pitching matchup here, with Charlie Morton going against McCullers for Houston.

Tampa definitely have the batters to get after McCullers, which I’d expect to prove the difference here.

LA Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves, 11:05 am
Dodgers $1.70

The Dodgers have been the best sports team in LA this season and they look good value to open the NLCS with a win at $1.70.

They easily put up the best numbers in baseball this season, going 43-17 with a + 136 run differential.

Not only was this 3 more wins than any other side, but their run differential was over 50 runs better than the 2nd best side.

Atlanta went 35-25 on the season with a + 60 run differential. While these are competitive numbers, the stats suggest the Dodgers have been significantly better this season.

They looked great in the divisional round, taking care of a very good San Diego side in a relatively simple sweep.

Walker Buehler gets the start for them here and I’m backing him to continue his stellar recent form.

Max Fried will start for Atlanta, which favours the Dodgers hitting lineup and likely results in a comfortable LA win.

ALCS – Game 1

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros, 10:30 am
Rays $1.65

This figures to be an excellent ALCS and I’m predicting Tampa at $1.65 to start the series with a win.

If we start by looking at the stats from the regular season, Houston just wasn’t a good team at all.

They actually finished below .500 at just 29-31 and would’ve missed the playoffs in any other year.

Tampa had the best record in the American League this season, 11 games ahead at 40-20 with a +60-run difference.

I think Houston caught Oakland at a very fortunate time in the last round, while Tampa dealt with an excellent Yankees side.

The Rays figure to have a favourable pitching matchup here, with former Cy Young winner Blake Snell going against Frambler Valdez.

Houston has some hitters, but the Rays offence has been better this season and should be able to go after Valdez.

I think they carry on their high level of play from the divisional round and go 1 step closer to a world series berth.

Saturday, October 10

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees, 10:15 am
Rays $2.35

I’d be on the Yankees if this was even money, but the $2.35 makes me like Tampa here.

You’re generally paying a premium betting on the Yankees, one which is only exacerbated by it being a game 7 with Gerrit Cole starting.

Tampa has actually been the better side throughout the course of the season and I think they’ve got every chance at pulling off the upset here.

Tyler Glasnow has had an excellent season at pitcher and I’d back him to turn around his relatively poor game 1 here.

Tampa’s hitters have also had a couple of good games in this series, notching 7 runs in game 2 and 8 runs in game 3.

Kevin Kiermaier and Michael Perez have provided some very valuable low order runs and seem to match up well with New York’s relievers.

If the offense shows up here, I like their chances at pulling off an upset.

Friday, October 9

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins, 5:05 am
Braves $1.70

I’m going to stick with Atlanta again here, currently paying $1.70 to win and get this sweep.

They’ve been the significantly better side through the first two games, winning by a combined score of 11 runs to 5.

They’ve opened as roughly a $1.50 favourite in both of the first two games, yet they’re getting a significantly higher price here.

My assumption is that this is in part because this could be a letdown game up 2-0 and partly because pitcher Kyle Wright hasn’t been great this season.

Even though Wright has tended to struggle, Miami doesn’t exactly have a firing offence right now.

As they showed yesterday, the Atlanta bullpen can also shut down their hitters when needed.

Especially with Sixto Sanchez not pulling up any trees for Miami, I’ll stick with Atlanta at better odds here.

LA Dodgers vs San Diego Padres, 12:05 pm
Dodgers

The odds for this one aren’t out yet, but I’m expecting the Dodgers to go for their third straight win and secure the sweep here.

Make no mistake about it, the Dodgers were the best team in baseball this season and are the rightful world series favourites.

They put up an excellent 43-17 record, which was 6 more wins than any other team in the conference.

Their run differential of +136 showed just how dominant they were this season, more than 50 runs better than any other side.

San Diego are no slouches and they’ve been the 2nd best team in the NL this season, but these first two games suggest they aren’t on LA’s level.

The Dodgers appear to be better in all major facets of the game, boasting better pitchers, hitters, and relievers.

I think they want to secure the win here and advance to the NLCS with the confidence that only a sweep can bring.

Thursday, October 8

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins, 5:10 am
Braves $1.50

Since we’re getting them as similar $1.50 favourites today, I’m inclined to repeat my bet from yesterday and back Atlanta here.

They won fairly comfortably in game 1, proving the gulf in quality with a 9-5 win.

Their bats were really able to get after Miami’s pitching, with the trio of Ozuna, d’Arnaud, and Swanson combining for 8 RBI.

Max Fried was a little shaky early on, but good work from the bullpen shut down Miami’s offense.

I think they’ve got a good pitching matchup on deck here, with rookie Ian Anderson having outplayed counterpart Pablo Lopez so far.

Atlanta have also shown they’ve got a much better bullpen and batting lineup.

Especially on a neutral field, I’ll just take the better side here.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays, 10:15 am
Yankees $1.80

This series is very delicately poised and I’m leaning towards the Yankees at $1.80 today.

Zig-zag theory suggests they’ll have a motivational edge today, especially after losing a game they could’ve won yesterday.

While Tampa has been the better side this season, I think this pitching matchup really favours the Yankees.

Despite some recent struggles, I’d still put my faith in Masahiro Tanaka on the biggest stage.

Charlie Morton just hasn’t been as consistent for Tampa and could struggle against the Yankee hitters.

The Yankees definitely appear to have lifted their game since the start of the playoffs, averaging 9 runs a game on offense, while only allowing 4.5 on defence.

Behind a stellar pitching performance, I think they do just enough to get the job done here in this crucial game 3.

Wednesday, October 7

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins, 5:10 am
Braves $1.50

In taking a look around, the $1.50 currently on offer is about as good as you’ll find for Atlanta today.

Although Miami have technically never lost a playoff series, I think Atlanta is the better side here and should start this series with a win.

Atlanta put together another stellar regular season, going 35-25 with a + 60 run differential.

Miami just weren’t as good, going 31-29 and having a – 41 run differential.

That indicates a huge difference between these sides of nearly 2 runs a game, which I expect to play out throughout the series.

Max Fried has been a very good pitcher for Atlanta this season and he should be able to limit the relatively weak Miami offense.

While Sandy Alcantara has probably been Miami’s best pitcher this season, I think their weak bullpen and Atlanta’s strong batting lineup should prove the difference.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees, 11 am
Rays $1.80

Going down 1-0 is a much bigger deal in the 2020 playoffs and I’d expect Tampa to be very motivated here as a result.

They’ve proven their quality throughout the regular season, where they were comfortably the best side in the American League.

The Yankees have been fairly inconsistent this season and an off night is definitely possible here.

I’m not exactly inspired by their pitching options, with Deivi Garcia getting the start here.

The 21-year-old has looked shaky in his limited action thus far and will likely struggle against a good Tampa offense.

Tyler Glasnow has been Mr. Consistent for Tampa Bay of late and you can reliably expect 6-7 solid innings from him.

Throw in Tampa’s solid bullpen and I think they make life difficult for New York’s bats en route to victory.

Tuesday, October 6

Oakland A’s vs Houston Astros, 7:10 am
A's $1.67

I’m going to take Oakland in the first MLB bubble game, currently listed as a $1.67 favourite.

With no home field either way this series, I think a lot of the externalities are reduced and the better team should win more often.

Oakland have proven themselves to be the better side throughout the regular season, amassing 7 more wins than Houston and a +36-run advantage.

I like the pitching matchup for them here too, with Chris Bassitt coming off one of the best seasons of his career.

While Houston still have a good batting lineup, they aren’t quite as good as they once were, and I’d expect Bassitt to enjoy some success here.

Lance McCullers will pitch for Houston here and I’ve found him to be fairly inconsistent this season.

I’d expect some of Oakland’s top hitters to get after him, which should prove the difference here.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays, 11:10 am
Rays $2.30

I usually like to take chalk in the MLB playoffs, but I’m going with Tampa here as the $2.30 underdogs.

They’ve been the much better team throughout the regular season and I’m surprised to see them at this price.

They were far and away the best team in the American League throughout the regular season, going 40-20 straight up with a +60 run differential.

These marks are significantly better than what the Yankees put up, going just 33-27 with a +45 differential.

The main reason why the Yankees are such heavy favourites here has to be the fact that Gerrit Cole is starting at pitcher.

While Cole has been his usual strong self this season, Blake Snell has had a great year of his own for Tampa Bay.

I’d go as far as to say that this is a relatively even pitching matchup and Tampa have been the better hitting side.

Especially getting $2.30, I’ll take the Rays in this one.