World Series – Game 6

LA Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays, 11:10 am
Over 7.5 Runs

This could very well be the last match of what has been a whirlwind MLB season.

I’ll be going back to the well with a total play here, going over 7.5 runs.

This play has been money so far during this series, cashing in 4 out of 5 games.

The Dodgers are going with a ‘by-committee’ approach at pitcher here, starting reliever Tony Gonsolin.

This didn’t work particularly well last time they tried it and I can see the Tampa bats having success as a result.

Despite his pedigree, Rays pitcher Blake Snell appears to have regressed of late.

He has struggled especially during these playoffs and I don’t think he matches up well with the Dodgers hitters.

Moreover, this ballpark is definitely friendly to the hitters and geared towards more high-scoring games.

The pitchers are also under huge pressure given the stakes involved and I can see one or both of these starters cracking.

Combine all of these factors and I think there’s value in backing over 7.5 runs again here.

World Series – Game 5

Tampa Bay Rays vs LA Dodgers, 11:10 am
Dodgers

The Dodgers have generally responded well to adversity this season and I’m backing them to do the same here.

After a tough loss in game 4, I think they’re good value to right the ship and win this very pivotal game 5.

I think they’ve definitely got an edge in the pitching matchup, with Clayton Kershaw going up against Tyler Glasnow.

Kershaw has been one of the best pitchers in the majors in recent seasons and there are few men you’d rather have pitching here.

While his play hasn’t been great throughout these playoffs, he looks to finally be getting back to full health and had an excellent outing in game 1.

Tyler Glasnow is definitely a solid pitcher at this level, but he enters this game in some horrendous form.

He has really struggled in his last few starts and I’m not sure how he turns that around against an in-form Dodgers batting lineup.

The Dodgers appear to have talent advantages across the field and I think a solid outing from Kershaw gets them this much-needed win.

World Series – Game 4

Tampa Bay Rays vs LA Dodgers, 11:10 am
Over 7.5 Runs

I’m opting for a total play here in game 4, taking this game to go over 7.5 runs.

This is in large part due to the pitching options for both sides, which aren’t as strong as they usually are.

The Dodgers are starting reliever Julio Urias in this one and will likely go with a committee approach for the 9 innings.

This just hasn’t worked well in the playoffs this season and I think it bodes well for Tampa’s offense here.

On the flipside, Ryan Yarbrough will start for Tampa and he just hasn’t been at the level of most of his peers this season.

He’ll generally give you ~5 steady innings, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in him here against this Dodgers side.

Moreover, the fact that we had a relatively low-scoring game 3 adds a little bit of line value, which further benefits us here.

Ultimately, I’m not too confident in the pitching today and this ballpark is definitely conducive to runs being scored.

At a total of 7.5, I’ll take the same over we played in game 2, hopefully with the same end result.

World Series – Game 3

Tampa Bay Rays vs LA Dodgers, 11:10 am
Dodgers

Fresh off a loss in game 2, I’m backing the Dodgers to turn things around and win here in game 3.

Game 2 was always likely to be a struggle, starting Gonsolin and relying on the bullpen to essentially get the job done.

While it hurt them there, it helps them in game 3 as ace Walker Buehler is now fit and firing.

Tampa are a team without any clear weaknesses, but their hitting just hasn’t reached the heights of the regular season.

Some of their top-end batters have been very inconsistent of late and could really struggle against Walker’s delivery.

On the flipside, the ageing Charlie Morton just hasn’t been as good for Tampa Bay of late.

He can generally only go around 5 innings, which will also put a ton of pressure on the bullpen.

Now that they’re becoming more and more accustomed to the Tampa bullpen, I think this could be a game where we see the Dodgers hitters go off.

They could desperately use a win here and I think that a complete team performance helps them get one.

World Series – Game 2

LA Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays, 11:10 am
Over 7.5 Runs

I think the line is relatively well set here, so I’ll instead opt for a total play, going over 7.5 runs.

This is largely because of projected Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin, who doesn’t inspire a huge amount of confidence.

He hasn’t started a game since September, where he looked shaky against a fairly anaemic Angels side.

Tampa had one of the best offenses in the majors this season and could definitely give him trouble here.

On the flipside, we’ve got Blake Snell going up against the Dodgers all-star lineup.

Snell is certainly a competent pitcher, but the Dodgers lineup tends to get their share against anybody.

I think Gonsolin will go for a few runs early here, meaning they’ll be more likely to be aggressive and go for the higher-variance play.

They showed yesterday that they can attack this Tampa bullpen and I’d expect more of the same here.

Set relatively low at 7.5 runs, I’ll take the value on the over.

 

World Series – Game 1

LA Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays, 11:10 am
Rays $2.50

I’m going for the line value play here, taking Tampa as $2.50 underdogs in game 1.

I think the Dodgers are overvalued in this spot, mainly due to Clayton Kershaw not being 100%.

Kershaw was one of the best pitchers in the regular season, but he has suffered a few recent injuries and his form has dipped noticeably in the playoffs.

He really struggled in the NLCS and I can see this Tampa batting lineup getting after him here.

On the flipside, I’ve been really impressed with what I’ve seen from Tyler Glasnow.

He was calm and composed in his two ALCS outings and appears to be in career-best form.

I think he matches up reasonably well with this Dodgers lineup and should put in a credible performance here.

If their hitters can match that on the offensive end, they’ve got a real chance of sneaking an upset.

At $2.50, the value is too good to ignore here.

NLCS – Game 7

LA Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves, 11:15 am
Dodgers

While no consensus line is out for this one, early indications are that the Dodgers will be ~ $1.70 favourites.

I plan to back the Dodgers to win here and finally grab that elusive world series with this group.

All the momentum is in their favour, having convincingly won 3 of the last 4 games.

I love this matchup for their bats, going up against inexperienced pitcher Ian Anderson.

This game will be an absolute pressure cooker and I can see Anderson faltering early against a star-studded lineup.

The flipside is that we’re not quite sure who the Dodgers starter will be yet, which is why the line hasn’t been released.

From where I stand, they’ve got a handful of solid veteran pitchers and a capable bullpen that can step in if things go awry.

I think that will be enough to contain an Atlanta lineup that is decent, but isn’t quite star-studded.

This team has a ton of pressure on them and I expect them to deliver here in a clutch spot.

Sunday, October 18

MLB Multi: Dodgers/Rays
Combined Odds of $3.05

I’m opting for somewhat of a rare MLB multi today, taking both the Dodgers and Rays at generous $3.05 odds.

I think both of these sides are in favourable situations here and will come out absolutely desperate for a win.

The Dodgers appeared to get back on track yesterday, in a game that was probably Atlanta’s best chance of closing out the series.

LA’s strong batting lineup began to find some form and I’d expect them to be dangerous the rest of the way.

Walker Buehler has probably been their best pitcher this season and I think his return gives them a much-needed edge.

Moving on to Tampa Bay, who have somehow lost the last 3 games to find themselves 3-3.

Their stats throughout the season and even this series have been much better than Houston’s, yet they can’t seem to put them away.

They’ve struggled from a hitting perspective in the last few games, something which I’d expect to change here.

Lance McCullers will start at pitcher for Houston and I’d expect a much better showing from the Tampa bats against him.

I also like the matchup for Charlie Morton against Houston’s bats, which should ultimately prove decisive here.

ALCS – Game 6

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros, 9:05 am
Rays $1.72

With no odds up for the LA game, I’ll stick with Tampa as my lone play for today.

They’ve let up slightly over the last two games, but they realize the urgency here and I’d expect them to play much better.

Given Houston’s below .500 record during the regular season, you can make the fairly strong case that they’re lucky to be here.

Tampa, on the other hand, were the best side in the American League throughout the regular season and dominated the first 3 games of this series.

I think the pitching matchup favours them here, with former Cy Young award winner Blake Snell taking the mound here.

He has performed much better than counterpart Frambler Valdez this season, which could prove crucial.

Ultimately, I think Tampa’s hitters really get after the Houston pitching staff in this one, with their own pitchers doing enough to hold on.

At $1.72, I think this is a +EV bet on the Rays closing out this series.

NLCS – Game 4

Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers, 11:10 am
Dodgers

I’m going to back the Dodgers to level up the series at 2 games apiece here.

They got well and truly back on track last time out, scoring a whopping 11 runs in the first inning to win 15-3.

Ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw is set to start for this one, which would provide a huge boost for his teammates.

Their start to the series obviously hasn’t been great, but there is considerable regular season evidence to suggest they’re the much better side.

Not only did the Dodgers win 8 more games than Atlanta this season, their run difference is also 76 runs better.

Bryse Wilson is set to pitch for Atlanta here and I think he’s a noticeable step down from their top options.

The Dodgers showed they can get after Atlanta’s pitching yesterday and I’m ultimately expecting more of the same here.

They also figure to be highly motivated to win again as a 3-1 deficit would leave them as major underdogs.

With the talent edge, matchup advantages, and unquestioned motivation, I like the Dodgers to level things up.