The Sopranos Guide to the 2025 AFL Premiership Race

The Sopranos Guide to the 2025 AFL Premiership Race

GuyWhoLikesSport

As I see it, 10 teams could conceivably win the premiership this year and I wouldn’t vomit on the spot out of pure shock.

That’s rare at Round 14, and it speaks to the overall health of the competition. There is no clear incoming dynasty, while the very worst teams have shown clear signs at some point in this season.

I’ve leaned on premiership metrics in the past and will again once the finals are set, but right now, with just 2.5 months left in the regular season, this is about feel.

About who looks most likely to win the whole thing.

As a bonus, each contender gets a Sopranos character comp and each tier gets a quote.

Because I just rewatched it, and you should too.

Now that they’re on the list, all the teams need to do is use the technique of positive visualisation in their thoughts and all that’ll be left is the footy.

(Yes, spoilers. The finale aired in 2007. That’s on you.)

Tier 1: The Motherf***ing f***ing ones who call the shots

  1. Collingwood: Tony Soprano
  2. Geelong: Livia Soprano

While the competition is even, there are two shot-callers in the AFL at the moment just like there were two shot-callers in The Sopranos.

The Pies and Cats are the top-2 teams on the ladder and played one of the season’s best, highest-level games on election night.

Despite playing one fewer game than Geelong, the Pies are still on top of the ladder with 44 points.

But their only loss of the season was to a Geelong side, who, like Livia Soprano, feel destined to haunt the rest of the AFL from a grave they will seemingly never enter.

If Tony has one real weakness, it’s the person who haunts his dreams with the words “poor you.”

For Collingwood, that’s Chris Scott’s Cats.

Tier 2: “What is he, nuts?”

  1. Brisbane: Carmine Lupertazzi Sr
  2. Western Bulldogs: Johnny Sac
  3. Adelaide: Ralph Cifaretto
  4. Gold Coast: Uncle Junior

Like Christopher is incredulous at the King of Rock from Visiting Day downplaying how great The Beatles were, each of these teams are just as astonished at me for not having them in the top tier.

Brisbane are the wily old veterans who will always do enough to win.

Like Little Carmine was always about the money, Brisbane is clearly building toward a premiership on the back of their emergent star Logan Morris.

Even after two fluky losses, every underlying number shows a team that will be a problem.

The Dogs are also just a tier below the very best sides, even moving into Collingwood’s neighbourhood but assuring them they won’t stick their beak in.

The Dogs especially seem to me to have the right formula of run and power to unseat those top-2 sides.

Like Ralphie, the Crows also reasonably have their eyes on top spot.

They can sadistically tear weaker teams apart piece-by-piece, but they are inclined to be a liability under real pressure.

Rounding out this tier is Gold Coast, who are good at all of the things that every other team needs to be good at to win at.

They have all the trappings of being the best team in footy, but like Tony letting Uncle Junior be the boss, my bet is that they’re the boss in name only.

Tier 3: “Maybe you should try holding her back. You know, keep something for the finish”

  1. GWS: Bobby Baccala
  2. Hawthorn: Richie Aprile – tremendous moxy for their size

While both of these are sides are winning to various degrees, both have been up and down this season, though they are both coming off big wins.

Both seem to be biding their time before becoming real players in the premiership race down the back half of the season, like they did last year.

If I were betting on one to emerge, however, it would be GWS.

Like Bobby Baccala spending the first few seasons of the show largely failing to consider salads, he ends the show as one of the key Soprano lieutenants that needed to be gunned down.

On the other hand, I wrote about Hawthorn last week.

This is a good side bereft of great players and despite that, as I write this, they’re fifth. Like Richie, they have tremendous moxy for their size.

Also like Richie, I don’t think they’ll be able to sell it.

Tier 4: “Satanic black magic. Sick shit”

  1. Fremantle: Christopher Moltisanti
  2. Carlton: Patsy Parisi

I’m probably stretching the definition of “can win the premiership” by including Carlton and Fremantle.

Fresh off one team going life and death with North Melbourne and the other demolishing West Coast, but I just see too much star power on both of teams to give up on them completely.

The star-power is most evident for Fremantle especially, who have at least one A-grader on each line (Treacy, Serong, Pearce) all of whom are in or near their primes.

However, they are intent on throwing away that talent playing regressive footy for most of the season, though they have made some strides in recent weeks.

Like Christopher, a season that started off so promisingly will probably end tragically and predictably.

I could also see the possibility of Carlton, however, remote, somehow jagging a flag with their level of top end talent.

Given how bad the press has been, the underlying metrics around their front half game and their defence are still incredibly solid.

It’s not crazily dissimilar to Brisbane’s profile at this time last year, when the Lions were 13th with a record of 6-1-6.

The Blues are 6-7.

But if they are to do it, they would be the darkest of horses, like the theory that it was Patsy Parisi who ultimately whacked Tony at the end of the show.