Rugby league heads west this week for Game 2 of the 2025 State of Origin Series and there are key changes to both NSW & QLD that will affect how they use the ball in attack.
Deciding Factors
Tom Dearden was an inevitability for this Maroons side and he’s a likely inclusion for a QLD attack that has struggled in recent series.
Where Daly Cherry-Evans plays tackles ahead of time to manipulate defenders and create specific looks in the line, Dearden brings a very approach to the halfback role. There will still be an effort to hit certain defenders or spots on the field, but Dearden’s running threat means he doesn’t need to set for shape to be effective in attack.
It’s easy to picture Dearden playing on the ball three, four or even five times in a QLD set; tipping forwards into positive involvements or getting over the ad line himself to run or throwing out the back. It’s a style that profiles well in the Origin arena where pressure and tempo are at their highest.
Dearden’s willingness to play shot-for-shot and ask questions on consecutive tackles is a likely approach for the Maroons here, particularly given how NSW controlled the ruck in Game I.
NSW’s productivity in yardage (and their elite general play kicking) has a flow-on effect throughout the contest. The big Blues forwards are afforded the luxury of frontloading their energy in defence to help NSW slow and win the ruck. That in turn helps contain any orchestrated actions or set pieces the Maroons attempt with the ball.
Dearden zipping around the ruck or down short sides is a different prospect. I’m expecting the fatigue and stress he puts in the line to be crucial to any QLD scoring action on Wednesday night.
Right vs Left
The Maroons best looks with the ball in Game I came down their right edge and that’s exactly where Dearden slots in for this one. If Dearden can pass Jeremiah Nanai into enough quick play-the-balls (or offload opportunities) on the tram line, the spaces will open up on the following tackle.
Robert Toia and Xavier Coates lurking down that short right edge are appealing try scorer picks, as is Dearden himself. If QLD can work into good-ball and get Dearden over the ad-line after a quick ruck, that signature show-and-go will be on.
Mitchell Moses’ late withdrawal for NSW plays into the hands of a Dearden-heavy Maroons attack.
Statistically and physically, Moses was defensively superb in Game I. He was instrumental in containing Nanai close to the line while his speed helped to cover Coates on the few occasions QLD stripped the Blues for numbers.
Latrell Mitchell was clearly a spot for the Maroons in Game I and that should continue in Perth this week.
He’s an elite tackler but won’t read everything right while defending in the centres on Wednesday night. Now with an unfamiliar face (Jarome Luai) protecting his inside shoulder and the running threat of Dearden in that same channel, Mitchell can expect some attention here.
As for what Luai brings to the Blues attack, it’s positive signs for Angus Crichton and Mitchell in the centres.
A genuine five-eighth with years of repetition swinging down the left edge onto a Nathan Cleary pass, I like Luai to be heavily involved in the Blues good-ball attack. Mitchell will always be a play-to player for NSW and Luai’s ability to straighten with a jink and pass short (or kick low in behind) is a likely action for the Mitchell & Blues here.
We can also expect Luai and the Blues to put some work into Dearden defensively. Angus Crichton was NSW’s most productive forward with the ball in Game I and can make a target of the smaller Dearden close to the line.
Cherry-Evans’ defensive movements have been criticised in the past but he did consistently get high and pressure the backrower option effectively. If the Blues can isolate the smaller Dearden and sit him on his heels though, Crichton will like his chances of barging over.
The Point of Difference
Barring any late changes, the adjustments made by Billy Slater for Game II speak volumes about how QLD want this game to play out.
Two defensive workers in Trent Loiero & Kurt Capewell come into the starting side and will be tasked with absorbing the early pressure. Loiero in particular is a big body with great lateral movement and repeat efforts; he mightn’t whack you with a highlight reel shot but he’ll consistently wrestle you onto your back and help QLD win little moments around the ruck.
Kurt Mann’s presence on the bench suggests Harry Grant will get a spell; another ominous sign for the Blues. NSW did a good job of putting fatigue into Grant in Game I but that’s impossible to do if he’s coming on late against a tired defence.
It all points towards a familiar strategy from the Maroons; stay in the fight and win it late. If they can weather the storm and take the sting out of NSW’s yardage game, the second wave of Pat Carrigan, Lindsay Collins and Jeremiah Nanai off the pine will produce points one way or another.
That being said, there’s an opportunity for NSW to start fast and win it early, before QLD can really get their game on.
Moses is a big loss for the Blues attack but the old firm of Luai & Cleary return as the most winning halves pairings we’ve seen in the NRL era. There won’t be any kinks for NSW to work out in attack if they can earn some early field position and I like Luai to be involved if & when the Blues do cash in.
Tips
- QLD: Tom Dearden try, Robert Toia try, Xavier Coates try
- NSW: Angus Crichton try, Latrell Mitchell try
- H2H: NSW (-6.5) line