Following a series opener that went terribly awry for the Queensland team, the Maroons have wrung in the changes for the second game in Perth led by the dumping of skipper Daly Cherry-Evans.
But even with the Blues forced into two key changes, Queensland face an enormous task at Optus Stadium as they try to keep the series alive.
The final score in the series opener was not even close to reflective of the dominance New South Wales held over Queensland. They should have won by 40.
The statistics were completely one-sided in the Blues’ favour. New South Wales ran for 328 metres more than Queensland.
They had 124 more post-contact metres, the line break advantage was 4-1, the tackle breaks were 49-19, offloads were 15-7.
They won the ruck with a quicker play-the-ball at an average of 0.1 seconds.
It was a demolition job everywhere but the scoreboard. Queensland might not be so lucky this time.
The Blues have been forced into two key changes with Stefano Utoikamanu and Jarome Luai coming in for injured duo Mitch Barnett and Mitchell Moses but those changes pale into comparison to the absurdity of Billy Slater’s moves and non-moves.
Daly Cherry-Evans has been dumped not only as captain but as halfback, but it is hard to see how Tom Dearden will improve Queensland’s chances to say nothing of how destabilising changing a captain mid-series is.
The worst player on the field for Queensland in the opener was Valentine Holmes yet rather than being dropped, he has somehow been promoted to centre.
He will play outside Reuben Cotter, a tough Maroon but one who has no business playing on an edge.
Yet Jeremiah Nanai, Queensland’s other edge and best player in the opener, was dumped to the bench along with future skipper and best player Patrick Carrigan, Beau Fermor was dropped and Corey Horsburgh was stunningly overlooked.
The changes were nonsensical, confused and illogical, not to mention they create more problems than they solve.
This should be a rebound spot for Queensland but the differential between the two teams is too great.
The Blues have won three straight by double digits and Perth will suit the more dynamic Blues, who have won both games there by 32 points.
This game projects to get well out of hand.
There is plenty to like about the over in this game including how far below expected scoring the series opener finished.
Optus Stadium is a very fast track with the two Origins played at the venue tallying 44 and 46.
Adding in the six NRL matches staged at the ground, the lowest total we have seen there is 40 points.
Game 2 matchups have tended to be the higher scoring games with four of the last six hitting 44 points.
There is a nice angle here for Man of the Match bettors with a forward win in a series opener usually being followed by a forward win.
The last seven times a forward has won Man of the Match in Game 1, it has been followed by a forward on six occasions.
Isaah Yeo strikes as the player to get it, he has an incredibly high workrate and is a key cog on both sides of the ball.
His move to running the ball along with having the c next to his name will both count in his favour.
Zac Lomax has five tries in four Origins including two doubles, and he will be filling up running on Valentine Holmes’ side of the field.
Stephen Crichton has just a single Origin try but he is being directly marked by Holmes now, making him an excellent bet.
Brian To’o has seven tries in 13 Origin appearances and in the last five games he has played that the Blues have won, he has scored in four of those.
- Best: New South Wales -7.5 ($1.90)
- Best Total: Over 41.5 ($1.90)
- Man of the Match: Isaah Yeo ($13)
- Tryscorer: Zac Lomax ($7.75 First, $1.78 Anytime)
- SGM: Zac Lomax Try/Brian To’o Try/Stephen Crichton Try ($9.43)