The second women’s Origin clash kicks off a fine weekend of Rugby League where those in contention for the men’s Origin will make their final push for rep selection.
The Sharks hosting the Storm on Saturday night is the highlight of the week with the Bulldogs and Chooks not far behind.
In John Strange’s first game in charge of the Sky Blues, New South Wales ran out comfortable winners 32-12 over Queensland at Suncorp, finally maximising the talent differential with the Maroons.
It was a dominant win with the Blues winning possession 54% to 46%, running for over 500 metres more, making nine line breaks to one, busting 29 tackles to 13 and winning the play the ball speed by 0.26s.
Both teams are essentially unchanged and with the match in Sydney this looks to be headed one way.
Ellie Johnston scored in her Origin debut and is an underrated tryscorer with 10 tries in 20 games for the Sharks.
Jayme Fressard scored a double in her Origin debut and she has 17 tries in 22 games since joining the Roosters.
Recommended Bets
- Best: New South Wales -6.5 ($1.90)
- Next: New South Wales 13+ ($2.85)
- Tryscorer: Ellie Johnston ($19 First, $4 Anytime)
- SGM: Ellie Johnston Try/Jayme Fressard Try ($9.82)
The most unappealing game of Round 11 kicks off the NRL action on Friday night with the Knights hosting the Eels, an all-bottom four clash that will have more ramifications for the spoon than it will the finals makeup.
Astonishingly for a team that has scored just 22 tries in nine games, the Knights are favoured for the third straight week.
With both teams in less than enticing spots, we look to the total and have found a very good bet with the under.
The under hits at 69.4% when two bottom four teams have met the last four years and the under has hit in seven straight when the Knights are favoured.
Fletcher Sharpe has scored seven of Newcastle’s 22 tries this season, while Iongi has four tries this year and is Parramatta’s most dangerous outside back.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 46.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Newcastle 11-20 Points ($2.80)
- Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($14 First, $2.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try/Isaiah Iongi Try ($7.71)
Canterbury have plenty of outs with Jaeman Salmon joining a long list of forwards sidelined by either injury or suspension but that should not stop them running roughshod over a Roosters team that struggles against quality opposition.
The Chooks have won 14 of the last 18 against the Bulldogs but the tide has turned recently with the last four split evenly.
The big concern for the Roosters has been their ability to perform against Top 4 opposition: they are 8-15 against the spread the last four seasons and have not covered any of their last seven against Top 4 teams.
The Bulldogs have covered nine of 12 off a win and are 15-5 against the spread at night, so they can be played this week laying the points.
Marcelo Montoya gets a plus-matchup against a rugby union convert and he has scored in two of his last three.
Jacob Kiraz has four tries in his last two matches and Bronson Xerri has five tries in his last six games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury -7.5 ($1.83)
- Next: Canterbury 13+ ($2.85)
- Tryscorer: Marcelo Montoya ($7.75 First, $1.78 Anytime)
- SGM: Marcelo Montoya Try/Jacob Kiraz Try/Bronson Xerri Try ($7.31)
Expect plenty of points when the Dolphins and Warriors square off at Suncorp on what is expected to be a sunny Saturday afternoon.
These two have played in three straight games that have gone over the total and this is a huge over spot.
Day games have gone over at a clip of 60.4% the last four seasons while it hits at 64% when a home team is $2 or shorter and off an interstate win.
The over is 23-15 when the Warriors are off a win and is 16-7 when they are off conceding 15 or fewer.
The over is 9-5 when the Dolphins play a Top 4 team.
Luke Metcalf can’t stop scoring with seven tries in nine games this year, Connelly Lemuelu has four tries in his last six as a hard-running bench edge.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 48.5 Points ($1.90)
- Next: Exact Total Points 61+ ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: Luke Metcalf ($15 First, $2.85 Anytime)
- SGM: Luke Metcalf Try/Connelly Lemuelu Try ($12.69)
Manly’s recent form has been mixed to put it politely but this is an outstanding opportunity for them to get their season back on track as travelling to Townsville to face the Cowboys will bring little fear.
The Sea Eagles have won six of the last eight against the Cowboys and have covered 17 of 25 since 2008.
Manly have won the last five in Townsville and won 42-12 at Brookvale in Round 1, the Sea Eagles are 13-7 against the spread against Top 8 teams but most notably have covered nine of 10 off conceding 30-plus.
With the Cowboys covering just seven of 19 at home, this looks a game where Manly are the only way to play.
Tolutau Koula is in a rich vein of tryscoring form with seven tries in his last six games.
Jaxon Purdue has seven tries in his last eight games and will get more of the ball this week now he has shifted to five-eighth.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Manly +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Manly Win ($2.15)
- Tryscorer: Tolutau Koula Try ($12.50 First, $2.30 Anytime)
- SGM: Tolutau Koula Try/Jaxon Purdue Try ($5.05)
Teams off uber-dominant wins have a sublime record the following week and we are expecting more of the game when the Storm travel to Shark Park to meet Cronulla.
The Storm annihilated the Tigers 64-0 last week and teams off a win of more than 50 cover at 68% since 2008.
Teams off a shutout win have also gone 16-7 against the spread the last four years.
Melbourne have won seven of their last nine against Cronulla, covering five of the last seven and this is a tough spot for the Sharks too.
Cronulla have covered just one of six off a double digit win and just three of their last nine against Top 8 teams so I’m very keen on the Storm to win comfortably here.
Ryan Papenhuyzen comes off a four-try showing and now has 12 tries in nine matches this year, while Eliesa Katoa has scored in two of his last three.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -3.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 13+ ($2.90)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($7.75 First, $1.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Eliesa Katoa Try ($4.63)
The quote long attributed to Einstein but actually from author Rita Mae Brown of insanity that defines it as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results comes to mind here.
Once again the Broncos are heavily favoured, once again the Broncos are there to pry money from punters.
Brisbane’s numbers are astounding, they are 2-14 against the spread at Suncorp and have covered just one of their last nine when favoured by double digits.
They are 4-10 against the spread off a loss and covered just three of their last 13 overall.
Lay! The
Dragons have covered eight of the last 11 against the Broncos while they are good travellers, covering five of seven interstate, off a loss, the Dragons have covered 32 of 50.
The big start for the Dragons here is a gift from the punting gods.
Dylan Egan has shown a fierceness with his running that has resulted in tries in his last two appearances, Tyrell Sloan has seven tries in eight games this year.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +11.5 ($1.90)
- Next: St George Illawarra ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Dylan Egan ($23 First, $3.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Dylan Egan Try/Tyrell Sloan Try ($7.41)
The Raiders have dominated the Titans of late and the Gold Coast have not shown enough of late to suggest they will be turning that around, winning their last five against the Titans and 10 of the last 11.
Their last meeting Canberra overcame a 16-point deficit to run out winners by 10 points.
In the last 15 meetings, the Raiders have covered 12.
Canberra have been a reliable afternoon team, covering six of seven, while they have coveted five of seven at home.
Gold Coast are 13-19 against the spread when travelling interstate while they have covered just one of five getting a start of at least eight points.
Sebastian Kris has seven tries in his 10 games this season, Hudson Young has eight tries this year – all of which have come in the last seven games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra -9.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canberra 13+ ($2.15)
- Tryscorer: Sebastian Kris ($12 First, $2.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Canberra Win/Seb Kris Try/Hudson Young Try ($5.71)
Numbers dictate that the Wests Tigers are an outstanding bet after their unedifying showing last week against South Sydney.
Teams off conceding 60 or more points are 20-3 against the spread since 2008 with an 8-1 cover record the last four years.
Teams off a loss of 50 or more are 22-9 against the number over the last 17 seasons while teams off a loss of 60 or more are a perfect 10-0 against the number since 2008.
The Tigers are a chips-in job.
Starford To’a has five tries in seven games this season, Terrell May has just one try this year but is being given plenty of opportunities.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers ($1.90)
- Next: Wests Tigers 13+ ($3.80)
- Tryscorer: Starford To’a ($15 First, $2.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Starford To’a Try/Terrell May Try ($14.23)