The divide between the contenders and the pretenders is starting to widen as we enter into the middle part of the 2025 AFL season.
Last round saw the smallest average winning margin since 1970 which was simultaneously exciting for fans as it was punishing for those 40+ type punting operators.
The league continues to surprise, enthrall and frustrate (thanks umps) those that follow the greatest sport on earth and there’s only one thing that makes it even better…
Backing winners.
Here are my best betting plays for Sir Doug Nicholls round.
There’s something about Darwin that the Gold Coast Suns enjoy.
They recorded their seventh win in a row in the top end against the Western Bulldogs in round nine and have created a fortress for rival clubs who meet them there.
Currently sitting in fourth spot, Damien Hardwick and his team have transformed into a contested possession team evident by the fact that only Carlton average more in that particular category so far this season.
On the back of this change in style, the Suns average more inside 50s per game and therefore more shots on goal than any other side.
Two very important stats for obvious reasons.
The fact that Hawthorn sit one game clear of Gold Coast in third position makes this game all the more important and intriguing.
After losses to Port Adelaide and Geelong, the Hawks have bounced back with three wins in a row although they were against sides that currently make up three of the last four spots on the ladder.
The men from Glenferrie finished the season as the hottest team in the league but there are some worrying trends when comparing the start of this season.
From round 8 to round 8 ro round 24 last year they were ranked second in ground ball gets (12th in 2025), fifth in clearances (15th) and third in ‘time spent in forward half’ (12th).
They also struggle at the start of football games which will be a concern for Sam Mitchell.
The last five straight Gold Coast games at TIO Stadium have gone over the total points line and if it is a shoot out, I’m backing the Hawks to overwhelm them with their scoring prowess.
The Swans have been cruelled by injury to players who are pretty crucial to their structure and they continue to struggle to convert when the opportunities arise.
They average the fifth most inside 50s per game in season 2025 but wallow in 14th position with just three wins to their name.
Dean Cox, and fans, could blame their poor luck with injuries but they have turned the football over more than any other team and are ranked second in clangers which doesn’t help their cause.
The topsy turvy ride of emotion that is involved in supporting Carlton continues for what seems a fourth decade.
The memory of their dominance in their last premiership year in 1995 is now only heard through quiet conversations in Lygon street by men deep into retirement age.
They shot themselves in the foot to kick start the season but have now won four of their last five albeit against some ordinary competition.
The SCG has not been a happy hunting ground for Carlton and they have won only twice in their last 22 trips there.
Patrick Cripps has been spending more time in the midfield in recent weeks which has helped his team but I can not back Carlton with any amount of confidence.
Another blockbuster between two sides at the top end of the AFL ladder taking place at the home of football on Saturday afternoon.
The Pies are humming along nicely in second position thanks to seven wins and just two losses and the fact they have had more shots on goal than any other team in the competition.
Second in that same category are the Crows, with just three less shots, and plenty of avenues to goal through the likes of Thilthorpe, Tex Walker and Fogarty who are working together well.
More evidence that their forward line is working beautifully is the fact that they lead the league in goal assists.
They simply will not get it as easy as they have so far this season against a Collingwood outfit that wins the football at ground level and keeps possession when they get the sherrin.
I’m predicting a low scoring affair where the Pies take the four points.
Four wins and five losses through nine rounds doesn’t give us a solid guide to how Port Adelaide are travelling in season 2025.
Coming off the back of a narrow defeat to their bitter rivals last weekend in the Showdown they will be keen to perform in front of their home crowd.
The Cats continue to play an exciting brand of football in a kill-or-be-killed type of style.
They beat the Pies two weeks ago in an epic game of football but fell short in an equally high scoring and enthralling game against the Giants last Sunday.
Geelong is desperate for some structure in the back six with the likely return of Lawson Humpries, Tom Stewart and Jack Henry in the coming weeks.
Bailey Smith has average 118.9 Fantasy Points thanks to 5.9 tackles a game and 30.8 disposals and look for Patrick Dangerfield to clunk a few marks up forward without a good option for a match up in the Port Adelaide defensive set up.
The Giants find themselves just inside the top eight through nine rounds and have found some form in recent weeks.
Hopes were high in the west of Sydney leading into this season and there is no reason why they can’t go deep into September again.
They have the two highest disposal players in the AFL in Tom Green (1st) and Lachie Whitfield (2nd) and actually have four inside the top 15 with Lachie Ash and Finn Callaghan.
The Dockers won’t make it easy for them if the Giants don’t get first use.
They turn the football over the least amount of any team and third for disposal efficiency.
GWS are starting to kick into gear and at home will prove difficult to beat.
The market has this one right in my opinion but let’s look for Tom Green to continue getting leather poisoning as our betting play.
Three wins in a row for the Doggies was broken in Darwin last weekend but they finished the game with a wet sail to only go down by 10 points.
Only Adelaide has scored more points than the Western Bulldogs this season and they rank first for inside 50s.
Their entire game plan revolves around winning the football when it is in dispute and not only do they rank first in center clearances, it is by a big margin.
Tom Liberatore has been a vital midfield cog in order for this style to work but the impact that Matthew Kennedy has had in this regard can not be overstated.
It has been another inconsistent start for Essendon but some important stats reveal Brad Scott has a long term plan for his Bombers and he is trusting the process.
They are becoming an increasingly harder team to score against and in the last six rounds they are ranked second in intercepts that lead to a score, first in clearances that lead to a score and first in score inside their defensive 50.
Concerning is the other end of the ground.
Essendon has had the second least amount of shots on goal only ahead of Richmond and the fewest number of inside 50s in the entire AFL.
If you believe many, Richmond has done their job this season already.
Three wins is a decent result so far for a team that was incredibly poor during last season but there is a long way to go in 2025!
Richmond has no doubt unearthed some good young talent but they are still very much reliant on a core group that has been at the club for quite some time.
Nankervis, Short, Vlaustuin and McIntosh are integral parts of this Tigers outfit and without them it would be a similar scenario to what North Melbourne has been through for a number of years.
The difference for the Kangaroos this year is they have added some experience into their lineup with Luke Parker, Caleb Daniel and Jack Darling.
They aren’t, however, reliant on those players because their best performing players are their crop of youngsters like Harry Sheezel, LDU, George Wardlaw and Colby McKercher.
This is why they’ll win this game of football.
The defending premiers return to the sanctuary of the Gabba this Sunday after a disappointing draw in Hobart last weekend against North Melbourne.
The Lions remain in top spot on the AFL ladder with just one loss so far thanks mainly to the way they can finish out games of football so strongly.
It could have been a different story for Brisbane who only beat Sydney by four points, West Coast by 19 and Geelong by nine to start their campaign.
There’s no doubt it has been a disappointing season for Melbourne so far but I’m far more bullish and optimistic about them than others seem to be.
I’m not about to suggest they can be contending this year or even next.
A couple of their star midfielders in Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca are well down on form but if one or both was to leave, and they gained something useful in return, they won’t need to rebuild the list.
Jake Bowey is becoming a really consistent performer, Caleb Windsor is young, Trent Rivers is averaging 22 touches a game…
Unfortunately for them, the Lions will open them up back at home this weekend.
The final game of the round will take place in the west.
West Coast remain winless through nine games of football in season 2025 and becoming increasingly harder to keep optimistic about them.
Just like Richmond their main contributors each week remain their seasoned players which is concerning.
Liam Duggan, Jamie Cripps, Jeremy Mcgovern and Tim Kelly lead a lot of the key statistical analytics in areas they would hope may be taken over by younger players at this stage of their rebuild.
Even their savior Harley Reid is not progressing as they may have hoped, averaging just 16 disposals a game with half of those being handballs.
St Kilda can be a little more hopeful in their assessment with wins over Geelong and Port Adelaide.
It is the big losses that are a cause for concern with a 62-point loss to Adelaide and 71 point loss to the Western Bulldogs.
The Saints have covered the line in five of their last six games against the Eagles and I’m expecting a low-scoring and hard-fought game.