A month into the season and Canterbury are the surprising lone undefeated team while Parramatta and the Dolphins continue to chase their first win.
All eyes will be on Brookvale Oval this Sunday when Manly host Melbourne in a tremendous battle between two title contenders.
Canberra have received early market support as a notable home underdog to Cronulla.
The Raiders have lost their last two but had excuses in each with officiating castrating them against Manly while the humidity played a major role in Townsville.
Cronulla have been hot and cold all season but have some key injuries to deal with this week with Kayal Iro and Siosifa Talakai both out.
Home underdogs in Rounds 5-8 cover at 60% while the Raiders are 14-8 against the spread off conceding 30-plus and Cronulla are 4-7 against the number when favoured interstate.
Expect Canberra to show up for this one back on their home deck. Matt Timoko has scored twice this year and is up against the inexperienced Hiroti.
Hudson Young has four tries in his last eight games against the Sharks.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra +4.5 ($1.77)
- Next: Canberra Win ($2.35)
- Tryscorer: Matt Timoko ($17 First, $3.05 Anytime)
- SGM: Matt Timoko Try/Hudson Young Try ($8.29)
Penrith have dropped three straight but continue to be significantly overrated by the market and are a lay again this week.
The Panthers are laying 13.5 points despite conceding 28-plus in each of their last three.
Nathan Cleary returns for Penrith but the absence of both Dylan Edwards and Brian To’o is going to significantly impact both Penrith’s style and effectiveness.
Double digit favourites off a loss cover at just 34% the last four seasons while Penrith have covered just three of 13 when a double digit favourite.
Penrith are also just 1-5 against the number at CommBank while they have covered just one of their last six against the Cowboys.
North Queensland have covered seven of eight road games and five of six getting double digits, the plus is way too large.
Robert Derby scored his first try in the NRL last week and has an exceptional tryscoring record at every level of the game.
Paul Alamoti has 12 tries in 20 showings since joining the Panthers. Murray Taulagi has scored in two of his four starts on the wing against North Queensland.
Recommended Bets
- Best: North Queensland +13.5 ($1.90)
- Next: North Queensland Win ($4.25)
- Tryscorer: Robert Derby ($13 First, $2.40 Anytime)
- SGM: Robert Derby Try/Paul Alamoti Try/Murray Taulagi Try ($7.89)
The greatest rivalry in Rugby League plays out its latest chapter on Friday night with Souths hosting the Roosters at Accor Stadium.
Latrell Mitchell returns for the Bunnies, something that will certainly add plenty of spice to an already spicy affair.
The Roosters have won the last four clashes between the two teams but Souths have covered all four matches this year and are playing better.
The top play in this one is the over, eight of the last 10 between these two have hit at least 42 and the over has hit in five straight Souths games against teams outside the Top 8 while it is 16-12 when they are off scoring 28-plus.
The over is also 23-13 when the Chooks are off a loss and 11-5 when the Roosters are off conceding 30 or more, so expect plenty of points.
Latrell Mitchell has an outstanding record when playing in the centres with 47 tries in 62 starts and James Tedesco has five tries in his last three games against Souths.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 48.5 ($1.90)
- Next: 61+ Points ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: Latrell Mitchell ($10 First, $2.05 Anytime)
- SGM: Latrell Mitchell Try/James Tedesco Try ($5.28)
Parramatta are winless through their first month under Jason Ryles but they look one of the better plays at home against St George Illawarra.
The Eels have a super recent record against the Dragons with 12 wins in their last 15 matchups.
Home underdogs of at least a try cover at 63% in Rounds 5-8 so that puts the Eels in a good spot for this one.
The Eels have covered their last two games while they are 5-2 against the number off a loss and they have covered eight of 13 off a defeat of 13 or more.
The Dragons were impressive against the Storm but rarely back up a victory, going 9-18 against the spread off a win while they have covered just two of eight when favoured away from their suburban home grounds which makes the Eels a highly confident play.
Isaiah Iongi is Parramatta’s most dangerous player and looks their most likely tryscorer.
The Fox has a tremendous strike rate and scored on his Eels debut.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Parramatta +4.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Parramatta 13+ ($5.25)
- Tryscorer: Isaiah Iongi ($16 First, $2.95 Anytime)
- SGM: Isaiah Iongi Try/Josh Addo-Carr Try ($5.60)
The Titans have been highly impressive in winning their last two back-to-back.
Most impressive has been their defence, allowing just six points at home to the Knights and 12 on the road to the Roosters.
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui has toughened this team up and they look a team that can be trusted.
The Titans have covered seven of 10 at CBus and are 5-2 against the spread off conceding 12 or fewer.
The Dolphins are playing slow and without energy and are without Tom Gilbert.
The Phins have covered just two of 10 road games and just five of 14 games in Queensland, bet the Titans laying the points.
AJ Brimson has elite speed and playing No.6 has not slowed him down with 15 tries in 36 matches in the position.
Tino Fa’asuamalaeui has scored in his last two and is proving very difficult to stop close to the line.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast -5.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast 13+ ($2.75)
- Tryscorer: AJ Brimson ($13 First, $2.35 Anytime)
- SGM: AJ Brimson Try/Tino Fa’asuamaleaui Try ($9.60)
Brisbane are being wildly overrated by the market at home and can be taken on again laying a huge number at home.
While Brisbane have a clear talent advantage over the Wests Tigers, the 17.5-point line is far too big.
Brisbane have not covered a single game in their last 12 at Suncorp, covering just three of their last 15 when favoured and are 1-4 against the number when favoured by at least 16 points.
The Tigers are without Jarome Luai but have showed up to every game this year while they are 14-11 against the spread getting 12.5 or more.
Be with the Tigers on this very disrespectful line.
Api Koroisau has 17 tries over 72 games across the last four seasons so knows his way across.
Gehamat Shibasaki has been a revelation for the Broncos with three tries in four games for Brisbane this year.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +17.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Brisbane 1-12 ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Api Koroisau ($26 First, $4.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Api Koroisau Try/Gehamat Shibasaki ($8.50)
Life without Tom Trbojevic has tended to be extremely difficult for Manly but even with him out for a month they look a very nice bet at home against Melbourne.
Lehi Hopoate is a very talented player so the Sea Eagles now have a decent backup.
Manly have tended to play well against Melbourne, winning the last three clashes at Brookvale.
Home underdogs of at least a try cover at 63% in Rounds 5-8.
Manly are 21-13 against the spread at Brookvale while they are 5-2 against the number in afternoon matches, this is a big lay spot for Melbourne with interstate teams $2 or shorter off an interstate match cover at just 31%.
Tolutau Koula scored a nice try last week and has two tries in three matches against the Storm.
Jason Saab has five tries in five games against the Storm.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Manly +4.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Manly Win ($2.45)
- Tryscorer: Tolutau Koula ($17 First, $3.25 Anytime)
- SGM: Tolutau Koula Try/Jason Saab Try ($6.00)
Few matchups are as historically low-scoring as the Bulldogs-Knights and considering how both teams are defending this season, another low scorer is on the cards.
The Bulldogs have conceded single digits in their last two while the Knights have conceded 10 or fewer in their two NSW matches.
The under is 21-7 in their 28 matches since 2008 and when the Knights are on the road, the under is 24-16.
The under is also 12-3 when the Bulldogs are off conceding 12 or fewer and 10-4 when they are off a win of 13 or more.
This game has all the hallmarks of another low scoring affair.
Jacob Preston scored a double the last time these two met and looks more likely now being played on the left.
Josh Curran has eight tries in 26 games starting on an edge while he scored in his last match with the Knights.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 46.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Under 38.5 ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Jacob Preston ($16 First, $3.05 Anytime)
- SGM: Jacob Preston Try/Josh Curran Try ($14.18)