One of footy’s oldest and most storied rivalries gets us rolling in Round 4 of the 2025 AFL season as Collingwood returns from the bye looking to ensure Owen remains at Carlton after the Blues’ winless start to 2025.
Melbourne heads down the highway to Kardinia Park on Friday night, still chasing its first win — and against Geelong, a task that won’t come easy.
But if we’re talking game of the round status, all eyes turn to the Gold Coast, where the undefeated Suns and Crows go head-to-head in a clash that might just show us who’s ready to ride the momentum wave all the way to September.
Meanwhile, Hawthorn and Essendon have the bye.
There are also five other games being played this weekend, and they matter as well.
Fortunately, we’ve looked into them all and found a bit of value in our AFL Round 4 Tips & Preview below
It’s always a big deal when these two old rivals clash, and Thursday night’s showdown between the Pies and Blues promises another epic chapter in their storied history.
After a poor Round 0 loss to GWS, Collingwood has bounced back to a 2-1 record and will be fresh off an early-season bye.
They’d love nothing more than to pile more pain onto Carlton and leave the Blues 0-4 to start the season – which would be for the second year running.
Recent history is on their side, too — the Pies have won 10 of their last 12 meetings with Carlton.
For the Blues, another loss could tip things from bad to worse.
Talkback lines on SEN and 3AW will be running hot if they can’t get a win here.
Carlton has been outscored by a combined 89 points across their first three games and has struggled to finish strongly.
Despite leading at half-time in all three matches, they’ve failed to close any of them out — which makes the half-time/full-time double market an intriguing option.
Given Carlton’s tendency to start well and fade, and Collingwood’s reputation for running out games, there could be a decent collect in this one.
The $5.80 on offer for Carlton to lead at half-time and Collingwood to win has caught my eye — too good to ignore.
After a couple of narrow losses on the road, Geelong will be thrilled to return to the comforts of Kardinia Park — or Alphabet Stadium, or GMHBA, depending on your preferred naming convention — for Friday night footy against a Melbourne side that should be performing far better than what they’ve dished up so far.
The Cattery is a fortress for Geelong, particularly against the Demons, who have managed just three wins from their last 25 visits to Sleepy Hollow.
With Geelong sitting ninth on the ladder, Chris Scott and his team will be keen to get back inside the eight and restore some order to their season — even if it’s only Round 4.
As for Melbourne… what can you say?
Many (myself included) had them pencilled in for a finals rebound in 2025, but they’ve been flat — and that’s being generous.
It’s starting to feel like that drought-breaking flag in 2021 (not even won at the ‘G) might’ve been their peak.
If the Dees go down here, they’ll slump to 0-4 for the first time since 2012 — the infamous Mark Neeld era, as the long-suffering faithful will remember all too well.
No one’s expecting a repeat of the 186-point demolition from 2011, but Geelong should be too strong at home.
Expect the Cats to take care of business, and for Melbourne to at least show a bit more fight in what could shape as a competitive contest
Did someone say Game of the Round?
That’s right — we’re living in a world where the Gold Coast Suns hosting Adelaide at Carrara (aka People First Stadium) is a genuine blockbuster.
For the Suns, this could be the biggest game in the club’s history.
They’ve started the season 2-0 with emphatic wins — including one on the road, which was their Achilles’ heel last year.
A win on Saturday afternoon would send a serious message to the rest of the competition: the Suns are no longer just promising, they’re delivering.
Adelaide, meanwhile, have been electric.
They’ve played a fast, high-scoring brand of footy, winning by an average of 53 points and haven’t dropped a quarter yet this season.
A win here could see them sitting on top of the ladder heading into Gather Round.
As of publishing, the Suns are narrow favourites at $1.77, with the Crows at $2.05 — offering great value — and the line set at just -3.5.
Here’s hoping for a shootout.
But with the Suns up and about at home, the 1–39 winning margin market looks like a decent play.
This one looks pretty straightforward: the reigning premiers, Brisbane, up against a rebuilding, youthful Richmond outfit at the MCG.
Brisbane will win — the only question is by how much.
Yes, the Tigers pulled off a stunning upset against Carlton a couple of weeks back, but lightning doesn’t strike twice.
Those $9.25 head-to-head odds are tempting, but let’s be real — they’re that high for a reason.
So how will Brisbane get the job done?
The Lions have quietly gone about their business, starting the season 3-0.
They haven’t been spectacular, but they haven’t needed to be. Remarkably, five of their last six wins have come after trailing by at least 23 points — they’re never out of the contest and know they don’t need to be peaking this early in the season.
They’ve also had Richmond’s measure in recent times, winning their last three meetings by an average of 100 points.
While the young Tigers under Adem Yze have shown signs of competitiveness, this could be a day for the Lions to really feast.
Given yours truly’s allegiance to the yellow and black, I’ll show a touch of mercy — but from a value standpoint, the 60–79 point winning margin for Brisbane looks the goods.
It would also mark their first win over Richmond at the MCG since 2009 – so that’s something isn’t?
With both sides sitting at 1-2 heading into this clash, it might be tempting to look past the odds.
Despite Sydney being favourites at $1.52, there’s a case to be made for backing North Melbourne at $2.50 for the upset.
The Kangaroos may have gone down by 36 points to Adelaide last week, but they’ve won plenty of admirers with their start to the season. There’s growing belief that things are starting to click at Arden Street — and that their big win over Melbourne wasn’t just a flash in the pan.
With this one at Marvel Stadium, they could be poised to claim a big scalp by knocking off last year’s Grand Finalists.
Sydney, meanwhile, will be fresh off the bye after a thrilling win over Fremantle.
That performance was a reminder of what they’re capable of, but they’ll need to start stringing wins together to stay in the hunt.
One of the big talking points is Luke Parker lining up against his old side for the first time.
Now wearing the North jumper, Parker will be eager to prove a point — and his inside knowledge of the Swans setup could be valuable.
This one shapes as a close contest.
My heart says North, but my head says take them at the line — safer play, same upside.
At the time of publishing, the West Coast Eagles were $13 head-to-head… with the Giants at shorter odds than Winx and Black Caviar combined, sitting at $1.03.
Now, I’m not about to do anything silly like legally change my name or dye my hair blue if West Coast pull off the upset (they won’t), but let’s be honest — this one has blowout potential.
To keep things interesting from a punting perspective, I’m diving into a Same Game Multi.
The Giants started well against the Hawks last week in Tassie, only to get overrun by the HokBall phenomenon.
Expect no such fade-out this time. GWS should feast on the Eagles and make a real statement, boosting their percentage in the process.
The 80–99 point margin looks juicy — just shy of triple figures, but still rewarding.
There are green shoots at West Coast, and they may start competitively… but the orange tsunami is coming.
Meanwhile, reigning Coleman Medallist Jesse Hogan returned last week and kicked four, and 3+ goals from him this week is another solid inclusion for this multi.
I’ll chuck the Same Game Multi on my Neds profile if you want to follow along.
Port Adelaide and St Kilda — the tipster’s nightmare.
You never quite know which version of either side is going to show up, and that makes Sunday afternoon’s clash at Adelaide Oval all the more intriguing.
Port enters the match 1-2, with their only win coming against a struggling Richmond. With high expectations and a no-fail, no-pressure coaching succession plan in place, they simply have to deliver.
The Saints, on the other hand, are 2-1 and inside the eight. They’ve notched up back-to-back wins — upsetting Geelong and storming home to beat the Tigers — and are building some early-season momentum.
This game could tell us a lot: who is the real Port Adelaide in 2025? And how real is this St Kilda resurgence?
These two sides met twice last year, with both games decided by less than two goals. The Round 16 clash — a two-point win for Port at Marvel — had Ken Hinkley at his emotional best.
As for who to back?
I genuinely don’t know which way to lean — thank goodness for the old tribet.
Either side by 15.5 points or less feels spot on.
The final match of the round shapes as a beauty, with the Bulldogs jumping on the plane to Perth to take on Fremantle at Optus Stadium.
The Dockers are coming off a much-needed Derby win over West Coast but remain largely untested against stronger opposition in 2025. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, pulled off a gutsy come-from-behind win over Carlton last Friday night in one of the games of the season so far.
Despite missing stars like Bontempelli, Treloar, Weightman and Ugle-Hagan — all still sidelined this week — the Dogs are 2-1, with Tom Liberatore leading brilliantly in his role as acting captain.
That said, the travel factor, Freo’s home-ground advantage, and what’s at stake for Justin Longmuir and his side should tilt this in the Dockers’ favour… even if they’ve lost four of their last five when starting as favourites.