We hit the four-week mark of the season and just two teams remain undefeated in Melbourne and Canterbury while the Dolphins, Cowboys, Dragons and Eels are all chasing their first victory for 2025.
Round 4 opens with South Sydney listed as massive home underdogs against a Penrith team missing star Nathan Cleary.
The Bunnies certainly look a value proposition this week with the Panthers also without Dylan Edwards.
Penrith have certainly had the best of South Sydney of late with 12 wins in the last 14 clashes, covering six of the last seven.
This is a handy spot though for Wayne Bennett’s team, who have covered all three matches this year and early-season home underdogs of four or more cover at 66% with Souths covering five of their last six at Accor.
Wayne Bennett is also an excellent bounceback coach with his teams +13% POT when off a 10-point loss, but Penrith have an incredible record off a loss but road favourites off an interstate trip cover at just 34%.
The line is too big in a game South Sydney can absolutely win.
Jye Gray possesses elite speed and with eight tries in 16 appearances, can wreak havoc.
Alex Johnston returns off a long injury layoff but his 195 tries is the second most in NRL history and he has three tries in his last three games against Penrith.
Paul Alamoti has seven tries in his last five games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: South Sydney +10.5 ($1.90)
- Next: South Sydney Win ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Jye Gray ($17 First, $3.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Jye Gray Try/Alex Johnston Try/Paul Alamoti Try ($11.08)
Gold Coast will be gutted that Keano Kini is out this week – and potentially for quite a while – with a neck injury, scuppering hopes the Titans had of pulling off an upset.
Kini was sublime against the Knights but Gold Coast must now rely on rookie Jaylan De Groot in his place.
The Roosters have historically loved this matchup with 11 straight wins over the Titans and the last three have all come by at least 18 with the Chooks scoring 32-plus points in seven of the last 11.
Gold Coast are just 10-18 against the spread interstate and have covered just three of nine interstate off a win, with the Roosters 11-8 against the spread when favoured at Allianz, they look a reliable bet to clear out against the Titans.
James Tedesco loves playing the Titans, scoring 13 tries in 14 matches including 10 in his last eight and Dom Young has seven tries in four matches against the Titans, scoring at least one in each appearance.
Angus Crichton scored a hat-trick when the Chooks last played the Titans, his second three-try showing in six games against the club.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Sydney Roosters -6.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Sydney Roosters 13+ ($2.45)
- Tryscorer: James Tedesco ($11 First, $2 Anytime)
- SGM: James Tedesco Try/Dom Young Try/Angus Crichton Try ($10.83)
The Brisbane derby has opened with an incredibly big line with the Dolphins getting a remarkable 13.5 points against cross-town rivals the Broncos.
There is no doubt that the Dolphins have been well off the pace this year with Kristian Woolf looking increasingly out of his depth.
This is a heated derby though and the Dolphins still have a menacing pack and a backline with plenty of strike.
The Broncos have won three of the four derbies but the Dolphins have covered three, but the Dolphins have covered six of eight off a double digit loss and seven of 11 getting double digits.
With Brisbane unreliable as a big favourite – they have covered just three of nine laying more than two converted tries – the Dolphins look value this week getting the monster start.
Jack Bostock has 17 tries in 28 games since being elevated to the NRL including one in his return from injury last week, Jesse Arthars is flying with five tries in three games this year and the Hammer has four tries in six starts against the Broncos.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +13.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins Win ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: Jack Bostock ($11 First, $2.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Jack Bostock Try/Jesse Arthars Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($6.70)
The Melbourne Storm don’t have bogey teams but if one team has regularly overachieved against them it is the Dragons.
St George Illawarra stunned Melbourne last season and have won four of the last 13 clashes, all as an underdog.
Dating back to 2008, the Dragons are 15-8 against the starting handicap.
This is a nice spot for the Dragons, who lost when heavily favoured before the bye and now get an afternoon home game at Kogarah to bounce back against an injury-ravaged Storm.
The Dragons are 29-16 against the spread off a loss while they have covered four of six day games at Kogarah.
With the Storm missing Jahrome Hughes, this is a big opportunity for the Dragons to open their account in 2025.
Tyrell Sloan has 32 tries in 60 games for the Dragons but looks an out-and-out scorer now he has shifted to the wing, Eli Katoa has five tries in six appearances against the Dragons and has scored in both Storm games this season.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +9.5 ($1.94)
- Next: Melbourne 1-12 ($3.05)
- Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($10 First, $1.94 Anytime)
- SGM: Tyrell Sloan Try/Eliesa Katoa Ty ($4.34)
Totally scratch last week’s loss by Canberra to Manly, they were given no hope by referee Grant Atkins.
The Raiders had just 20% of the ball in the first half, had a fair try disallowed, a player sent to the sin bin and five six-against awarded against v zero for.
Canberra had played well across the opening two rounds and have too much talent for the Cowboys.
Todd Payten’s team dug a little deeper against Brisbane but were still comfortably beaten not to mention North Queensland are an awful 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 home games so tend to be overrated in Townsville.
Canberra are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 interstate but notably have covered seven of eight off a loss of 28 or more, talent should triumph here.
Sebastian Kris has started the season in hot form with three tries in three games and he scored in his last clash with the Cowboys.
Hudson Young scored against Manly last week and has at least nine tries in his last three seasons so can find his way across the stripe.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra Win ($1.90)
- Next: Canberra 13+ ($4.10)
- Tryscorer: Sebastian Kris ($15 First, $2.65 Anytime)
- SGM: Sebastian Kris Try/Hudson Young Try ($9.19)
Arguably the match of the round, the Sharks host the Bulldogs on Saturday night with both teams likely to be fighting it out for Top 4 spots at the end of the year.
It is surprising that the Bulldogs are such a large price, getting 11.5 points even though they are without Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau but getting double digits seems a major overreaction.
The Bulldogs have struggled against the Sharks in recent years but this is a completely rebuilt Canterbury team and they have covered eight of 10 getting a double digit start and have covered four of five off conceding eight or fewer.
The Sharks on the other hand have been patchy this year and this start looks far too big.
Bronson Xerri has 11 tries in 22 games since returning to the NRL with eight of those coming in his last 12 games.
Briton Nikora is the best edge runner in the NRL and he is in fine tryscoring form with 12 tries in his last 19 games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury +11.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury Win ($3.90)
- Tryscorer: Bronson Xerri ($21 First, $3.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Bronson Xerri Try/Briton Nikora Try ($10.33)
It has been a trying week for Manly with the club under the gun after Daly Cherry-Evans said he was leaving at season’s end despite having no firm plans for 2026.
The Sea Eagles have rightfully been lambasted for allowing an icon of the club and one of the best halfbacks in the competition to walk.
How Manly respond will be key here but it is apparent that the playing group remain fond of Cherry-Evans and will likely continue to run riot at home, particularly against an old rival.
The Sea Eagles are a different team at Brookvale, going 21-12 against the spread at the ground with a 5-1 cover record at the ground during the day and 8-4 at the venue off scoring 30-plus.
The Eels dug in deep against the Bulldogs last week but they lack the firepower to run with a team possessing the attacking chops of Manly and Parramatta are 15-24 against the spread as an underdog.
Tom Trbojevic has seven tries in his last eight games against Parramatta and should have a field day against the Eels defence.
Reuben Garrick comes off a four-try haul against Canberra and Haumole Olakau’atu has 37 tries in 97 games and will thrive against the hapless Eels left edge that concedes so many tries.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Manly -18.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Alternate Handicap Manly -35.5 ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($6 First, $1.32 Anytime)
- SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Reuben Garrick Try/Haumole Olakau’atu Try ($5.31)
Round 4 concludes with two surprise packets meeting at Campbelltown as the Tigers and Warriors battle it out to go to 3-1.
The Warriors have won seven straight against the Tigers but it is hard not to be impressed by what the Tigers have shown in 2025.
The best play in this game is actually the under, betting on two improved defences to show up here.
The under hits at near 66% when two teams off a win meet in the opening four rounds while both teams have been big under teams to start the season in recent years with the Warriors 12-3 to the under in the opening four rounds the last four years while the Tigers are 12-2.
Points should be hard to come by in this one, however if you want to back a couple of try scorers, Luke Metcalf has 13 tries in 29 NRL appearances and is starting to get more comfortable in the No.7 jersey.
Jeral Skelton has six tries in 11 top grade games and looks a genuine tryscorer.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 49.5 Total Points ($1.90)
- Next: Alternate Total Under 41.5 Total Points ($3.25)
- Tryscorer: Luke Metcalf ($23 First, $3.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Luke Metcalf Try/Jeral Skelton Try ($6.79)