Round 2 saw the biggest upset in over two decades when the Roosters stunned the Panthers but Penrith get their chance at redemption in Thursday’s salivating Grand Final rematch against the Storm in Melbourne, the undoubted highlight of Round 3.
Round 3 opens up with a salivating matchup featuring last year’s Grand Finalists with the Storm heavily favoured to beat the Panthers in Melbourne.
There is no doubting the Storm’s credentials coming into this game virtually at full-strength, boasting a great record at home, they are reliable when heavily favoured and are antsing for revenge.
But this line though is nuts … absolutely nuts!
Penrith have lost Dylan Edwards and were poor last week in a shock loss to the Roosters but one feels they had an eye on this one the entire time.
The Panthers are 15-2 against the spread off a loss, 7-2 against the spread as an underdog and have covered 13 of 19 off conceding 20-plus so expect a big showing from Penrith.
Ryan Papenhuyzen has 59 tries in 73 games when starting in the NRL and looked back to his best in Round 1 and Paul Alamoti has five tries in his last four games for the Panthers.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith +8.5 ($1.90)
- Next: To Win Either Half – Penrith ($1.83)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($9 First, $1.87 Anytime)
- SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Paul Alamoti Ty ($5.88)
The Sydney Roosters welcome back some big guns this week with Lindsay Collins, Spencer Leniu and Victor Radley all back in the Tricolours.
Coming off an upset-for-the-ages win over the four-time defending premiers last Friday, the Roosters will be full of confidence and look a great bet on the road against the Warriors.
They have dominated New Zealand with eight straight wins, all of which game by more than one score and in their last two at Mt Smart, they kept the Warriors to zero.
The Chooks are 9-5 against the spread off conceding 30-plus while the Warriors are 6-12 against the spread off a double digit win, the value is with the Roosters.
Dom Young has 23 tries in 24 games for the Roosters including three this year when the Roosters were pronounced outsiders.
RTS has scored in six straight games when starting on the wing for the Warriors, while Robert Toia has looked good in two top grade appearances and scored four tries in 12 lower grade games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Sydney Roosters Win ($1.95)
- Next: Sydney Roosters Win/Under 49.5 ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Dom Young ($7 First, $1.53 Anytime)
- SGM: Dom Young Try/Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Try/Robert Toia Try ($9.41)
The Cowboys have given absolutely no reason to suggest a wager on them after two horrific defensive showings.
This line is incredibly big though and off a poor showing when heavily favoured last week, the plus at a small level is the play.
Jake Clifford is no superstar but his experience at halfback is a major upgrade on Tom Duffy.
The Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread off scoring 12 or fewer and 9-4 against the number when getting 7.5 or more points.
There is no knock on the Broncos here, who have won four straight by 12-plus points against the Cowboys, but favourites of 16 or more off a double digit loss are just 3-8 against the spread over the last four seasons.
Robert Derby scored 21 tries in 25 lower grade games and is well deserving of this opportunity.
Selwyn Cobbo already has four tries in his two appearances this year, as does Jesse Arthars.
Recommended Bets
- Best: North Queensland +17.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Brisbane 1-12 ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Robert Derby ($14 First, $2.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Robert Derby Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try/Jesse Arthars Try ($4.87)
South Sydney have been incredibly gutsy over the opening fortnight with gritty wins over the Dolphins and Dragons but they face an incredibly difficult test this week against a Top 4 team that has shown plenty in attack this year.
The Sharks have won three straight by double digits against the Bunnies, covering them all.
This is such a good spot for Cronulla too, they are 24-15 against the spread when favoured by more than a converted try while they have covered seven of 10 day games at the ground.
Souths are 2-4 against the number getting more than two converted tries.
Briton Nikora has 11 tries in his last 18 games and has a case for being the game’s best tryscoring backrower.
Addin Fonua-Blake is the best tryscoring prop in the game with 18 tries in 51 games acoss the last three seasons.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla -17.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Cronulla 30+ ($3.40)
- Tryscorer: Briton Nikora ($17 First, $2.85 Anytime)
- SGM: Briton Nikora Try/Addin Fonua-Blake Try ($8.17)
It is very early in the season for a crossroads game but that is where we are at with the Dolphins.
The Phins had been fast starters the last two years but have been one of the most disappointing teams.
They have lacked energy, discipline and speed, throwing away two winnable games in the process, now they cannot afford to throw away a third in a very winnable match with the Tigers.
Kulikefu Finefuiaki and Jack Bostock have been named on the extended bench with both likely to come in.
The Dolphins have covered five of six at Redcliffe while they are 6-1 against the spread off a double digit loss so I’m very keen on a Dolphins bounceback.
Max Plath scored in the season opener after being shifted to an edge and is over the odds every week.
Jeral Skelton has scored five tries in his last seven NRL appearances and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 30 tries in 38 games since moving to the Dolphins.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins Win ($1.78)
- Next: Dolphins 13+ ($3.60)
- Tryscorer: Max Plath ($26 First, $4.40 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Jeral Skelton Try/Max Plath Try ($14.83)
The money has poured in for Newcastle all week and was further enhanced when Alofiana Khan-Pereira was ruled out for the Titans while David Fifita remains on the bench.
The Knights have dominated this matchup and have certainly started the season faster.
Not to mention the Knights have won and covered the last six against the Titans and have impressed in at least one half in each of their two wins.
Newcastle also get it done when expected, covering 22 of 32 when under $2 in head-to-head betting.
The Titans are 3-9 against the spread in their opening month games over the last four seasons and Des has clearly missed the jump again with them.
Fletcher Sharpe is a tryscoring machine who has crossed 12 times in 14 appearances including in the season opener this year when switching to No.6.
Greg Marzhew has 30 tries in 46 appearances for the Knights. James Schiller has seven tries in his last seven NRL appearances.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle -1.5 ($1.83)
- Next: Newcastle 13+ ($3.35)
- Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($17 First, $2.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try/Greg Marzhew Try/James Schiller Try ($8.17)
It is hard to get excited about Parramatta after their two heinous performances.
A long year certainly lays ahead but as a big early season home underdog of more than a try that historically covers at 65%, they have to be the bet.
Confidence is marginally increased by Matt Burton missing with he and Villiame Kikau set to be out at least a month each.
The top play in this one though is the under as it has hit in 16 of the last 19 Eels-Bulldogs clashes with the fierceness of the rivalry able to extricate additional effort in defence.
The under also hits at 66% when a team is off conceding 18-plus in the opening four rounds and is 12-6 when the Bulldogs are off scoring 28 or more.
Sitili Tupouniua scored a double on his debut for the Bulldogs and has crossed for a try in four of his last 10 starts.
Isaiah Iongi scored on his club debut and is the most likely Eel.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 46.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Parramatta +9.5 ($1.90)
- Tryscorer: Sitili Tupouniua ($19 First, $3.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Sitili Tupouniua Try/Isaiah Iongi Try ($12.97)
The big watch in Round 3’s final game is whether Tom Trbojevic plays or not after leaving last week’s clash early with a hamstring injury.
He – along with Daly Cherry-Evans – were both named so there is an assumption here that he will play even if it is a questionable idea.
Manly were poor last week but losing Turbo early hurt and they are also a very different team at home.
Manly are 20-12 against the spread at Brookvale with an 11-6 cover record at the venue and a 6-2 cover record when favoured by at least a try at the ground.
Canberra are just 17-24 against the spread off a win, while they have played well through two weeks but this number looks skinny.
Tom Trbojevic has scored a remarkable 15 tries in 12 games against Canberra including eight in his last five.
Jason Saab has 28 tries in his last 38 games and Lehi Hopoate has nine tries in his fledgling 16-game career.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Manly -5.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Manly 13+ ($2.75)
- Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($8 First, $1.65 Anytime)
- SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Jason Saab Try/Lehi Hopoate Try ($4.79)