With the two Queensland matches postponed due to Cyclone Alfie, the AFL’s controversial Opening Round has been cut from four games to just two to kick off the 2025 season.
The silver lining? While footy is in short supply this weekend, we’ve got two cracking games on the cards—Sydney takes on Hawthorn at the SCG on Friday night, while GWS hosts Collingwood on Sunday afternoon.
It may not be the ideal way to start the season, but it’s the perfect chance to find some value and back some winners in our AFL Opening Round tips and preview.
The Swans, under new coach Dean Cox, kick off their road to redemption against the up-and-about, highly talked-up, all-action entertainment machine that is Hawthorn—also known as HOKBALL.
At the time of publishing, the market can’t split them. The Swans ($1.85 H2H) and Hawks ($1.96 H2H) are neck and neck with the line set at -1.5.
Sydney has been here before—dominating the home-and-away season, only to fall short when it mattered most. Meanwhile, Hawthorn was the most fun team to watch last year, coming from nowhere to nearly pinch a prelim spot.
There’ll be a lot more eyeballs on the Hawks this season, with Sam Mitchell’s side getting plenty of prime-time love.
But clubs will have studied this HOKBALL phenomenon beyond just the fancy TikTok edits on Hawthorn’s official account.
Unlike their last games of 2024, 2022, 2016 and 2014 Sydney hasn’t struggled in the first of the season—they’ve won their past five season openers and have a solid record at home.
They’ve also won their last four at the SCG by 1-39 points, so we’ll back Swans 1-39 as our first leg.
And when it comes to HOKBALL, few do it better than Nick “The Wizard” Watson. He’s hit the 2+ goals market in four of his last five games, including that four-goal effort in last year’s elimination final and three in the semi against Port. Even his two-goal burst in 22 seconds during last week’s practice match in Launceston was electric.
So let’s go with: Swans 1-39 + and the Wizard 2+ goals at $5.30.
Here’s hoping for a cracking game—and that we kick off season 2025 with a win!
GWS had a 2024 finals campaign straight out of Linkin Park —they tried so hard and got so far, but in the end, it didn’t even matter.
A straight-sets exit, after being in front for over 95% of the time in both of their games was a heartbreaking way to bow out, but plenty in the footy world reckon the Giants will be right in the mix again this season.
Collingwood, meanwhile, missed finals the year after a premiership—a rare fall from grace. But many expect the Pies to bounce back in 2025, and knocking off GWS at Engie Stadium would be the perfect way to start.
At the time of publishing, the Pies head in as $1.69 favorites, with the Giants the $2.20 outsiders—but writing off Adam Kingsley’s orange army is always a risky move.
GWS will be missing Coleman Medalist Jesse Hogan, big-name recruit Jake “The Package” Stringer, and a few others due to suspension. But this feels like the kind of game where Toby Greene makes a statement. The GWS skipper will be keen to make an impact.
With the Giants winning their last four at home against the Pies, the H2H value is too good to pass up.