Spotlight on Hawthorn

Spotlight on Hawthorn

GuyWhoLikesSport

Imagine a week after Robby Robinson takes that final call in Spotlight, Ben Bradlee waltzes into his office and asks “what’s next?”

Robby could be forgiven for thinking he’s just led the team that uncovered the Catholic Church moving priests around like they’re killer whales at Seaworld, and deserves some respite.

Sam Mitchell faces the same question as Robby: How do you follow up a masterpiece?

Despite losing the semi-final, it’s not overkill to call the end of Hawthorn’s 2024 season a masterpiece.

Over the last 10 weeks of the regular season, the Hawks went 8-2, losing only to Geelong and GWS.

During that period, they led the league in scoring, scores from turnover, and from the forward half.

This wasn’t just a score-one-way team either. They were second in scores from the back half and from stoppage.

They were also the league’s stingiest defence.

This from the fifth youngest team in the AFL.

It was an absurd season where Sam Mitchell showed his ability to meld his game with his personnel.

For instance, this isn’t a team with elite inside players—James Worpel and Jai Newcombe are just okay.

As a result, Hawthorn ranked 13th in contested ball percentage. However, Hawthorn opponents were 15th in contested ball percentage.

There wasn’t a lot of contested ball to be won for either side.

Instead, they played to their strengths and, like Coach Carter told his boys, ran. Hawthorn had elite movers all over the ground—Amon, Weddle, Impey, Macdonald, D’Ambrosio, etc.

Hawthorn was top 3 in loose ball gets, post-clearance contested ball, and post-clearance ground ball gets, while being third in handball receives.

They hunted clear air with dogged intensity, like Rezendes trying to get information from Mitch Garabedian.

They often did it by playing JFK football—going back and to the left out of contests, starting runs from there.

They played a game that melded Clarkson-style piercing ball movement with a modern thirst for territory.

They quickly got it up to their promising key forward duo of Calsher Dear and Mabior Chol, with tricky movers like Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan, and Nick Watson at their feet.

They were great.

Over the offseason they’ve gotten better, adding Tom Barrass and Josh Battle to improve their lacking defensive personnel.

The case for 2025 working is obvious.

They were young and great last year and added talent over the offseason. They were also elite in front-half turnover scoring – footy’s best bellwether.

Buying stock in Hawthorn before 2024 was like buying stock in Timothée Chalamet before Lady Bird. 2025 is when the stock pays out.

So, given all the above, why won’t it work?

There are two big issues that could stunt their season.

The first, ironically, is James Sicily.

Sicily was brilliant last year as a moonlighting forward who kicked goals when he got away from his day jobs of stopping other teams from scoring and setting up Hawthorn’s attack from the back half.

He’s among the very best field kicks in the AFL and was the engine behind the elite back-half scoring and running game that accounted for 39 ppg over the final 10 games.

If the whispers are true and he’s going forward, leaving Barass and Battle as key backs, then you’re robbing Peter to pay nobody.

Sicily is a good forward as a surprise, but he is small and his preternatural ability to read the ball off opponents’ boots is mitigated when the ball is kicked to him.

It would also make them immobile forward of centre, with Dear, Mitch Lewis, and Sicily all in the same forward line, with Jack Gunston mixed in.

The move would impact pressure, ball movement from the back half, and the defence.

Just everything, then.

Have your best player play his best position and work it out after that.

The other issue I see for Hawthorn came to light in the Port Adelaide semi-final.

In 2024, Hawthorn lived on space. Even when the ball went into contested situations, they were so good at manufacturing momentum around contests and sweeping the ball away.

In the semi-final, Port took that away.

Across the game, Port won the ground balls by 8, post-clearance contested ball by 19, and post-clearance ground ball gets by 14.

Over their final 11 games (including finals), Hawthorn only lost all three stats just three times. Their games against Geelong, GWS, and Port.

Their only three losses during the period.

That’s a hard way to live for opponents, and it requires serious effort that probably can’t be mustered in every game. But Hawthorn comes into 2025 as Neds’ second favourite to win the whole thing.

That status, combined with their Kenny Powers attitude,

puts a target on their back and could elicit the effort required of opponents to stymie their run.

Hawthorn is probably going to be pretty good if not excellent this season. But just ask Nas: It’s hard to follow up a masterpiece.

 

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