The first round of the NRL Preseason Challenge usually features a host of fringe first-grade talent that are unlikely to feature in the 2025 NRL regular season.
Not this weekend though.
With Cronulla, New Zealand, Canberra & Penrith all preparing to fly to Las Vegas at the end of the month, all four clubs will roll out top-line talent this Friday & Saturday night.
It’s a dream for SuperCoaches and footy geeks like me; a chance to get an early look at four big clubs & what changes they might have introduced over the summer.
From a betting perspective, trial games are a lottery but we’ll do our best to find some value hidden in the H2H and try scoring markets while analysing both games along the way.
Here’s what I’ve got my eye on in Round 0 of the 2025 NRL Preseason Challenge.
The unofficial first game of the year features a team I am very high on for NRL season 2025.
The Cronulla Sharks have been regulars of finals football for three years running but are poised to go a few better this season.
Addin Fonua-Blake is a killer signing but it’s the timing of his arrival that makes it all the sweeter; the emergence of guys like Braydon Trindall, Kayal Iro, Tom Hazelton and Daniel Atkinson in recent years has Cronulla perfectly placed to make the most of their star signing through the middle of the field.
We won’t see AFB or Blayke Brailey – a key duo for the Sharks this year – on Friday night. That being said, Jayden Berrell, Braden Hamlin-Uele, Hazelton and Oregon Kaufusi (at lock) will give us some idea of how Cronulla want to play around the ruck.
On paper, it looks like a pack that will play mostly through Berrell at dummy-half, using big bodies to bend the line and generate ruck speed or second-phase play. If this is the case, where Will Kennedy positions himself on the park is a key watch.
Kennedy is a wonderful support player for a ball-dominant playmaker like Hynes. He pops up in the right areas and regularly makes the right pass out the back of shape; Sia Talakai certainly didn’t register 17 try assists in 2023 all on his own.
If Cronulla can promote the ball a little more often in yardage this year however (8th most offloads per game in 2024), I like Kennedy to become a little more involved in their attack.
If we see Kennedy sniffing around the ball in yardage on Friday night, it could be a sign of things to come.
For the Warriors, it’s our first look at a new era for New Zealand following the departure of Shaun Johnson, Tohu Harris and the afore-mentioned Fonua-Blake.
James Fisher-Harris is quite literally the best prop replacement New Zealand could’ve asked for while a healthy Luke Metcalf will somewhat offset the loss of Johnson in the halves. It’s how the Warriors adapt with Erin Clark & Dylan Walker in the #13 jumper that will likely have the most impact on their 2025 campaign, and we get our first look on Friday night.
How Metcalf and Te Maire Martin share playmaking duties is another crucial narrative. Does Martin play first receiver (where he excelled last year) while Metcalf sweeps both sides or do they split the field and continue to give Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad more playmaking responsibilities out the back of shape?
Elsewhere, I love Roger Tuivasa-Sheck on the wing and think Ali Leiataua could be in for a breakout season if he takes his opportunity in first-grade.
Betting Analysis
Andrew Webster has named a near-full strength Warriors side but how long will they all stay on the field in this one? I think there’s value in Cronulla to keep it close (Sharks +5.5 line @ $1.90) given how consistent their defensive systems have been over the past few years and the big bodies they’ve named through the middle. They’ve got enough experience in Atkinson and Kennedy to turn field position into points provided they go with this new-look New Zealand pack in yardage.
For try scorers, a predicted Sharks starting left edge of Sam Stonestreet ($1.83), Kayal Iro ($2.70), Siosifa Talakai ($3.90) & Daniel Atkinson ($3.70) is where I’m looking.
So it begins. The 2025 NRL Grand Final is still long, long way away but that won’t stop talk of the Penrith Panthers and their mission to win an historic five straight premierships.
While Ivan Cleary has left out a raft of first-grade talent, we know by now that the cattle doesn’t matter to the four-time defending champs.
Brad Schneider & Daine Laurie will point the team around but expect Penrith to play their familiar, high percentage style of football.
We get our first look at Isaiah Papali’i in Panthers colours here; named on an edge where I think he can have enormous impact for Penrith this season.
They haven’t played with a dynamic, attacking backrower since Viliame Kikau featured on the left edge in ‘22 but Papali’i can offer a point of difference in how the Panthers attack the tram lines this year.
The Maclean brothers on either wing are two more interesting watches; Casey adapted alarmingly well to first-grade for New Zealand in the 2024 Pacific Champs and looks the obvious replacement for Sunia Turuva on the left wing.
I’m curious to see how the Panthers utilise Casey’s speed this year; perhaps an exit shift out of yardage every now and then like Melbourne or Manly of recent seasons?
Keep an eye on Asu Kepaoa too; he could end up a sneaky good buy like Paul Alamoti was in 2024.
While one of the more conservative clubs in the NRL when it comes to playing styles, Penrith have also consistently been the most innovative and disciplined team in the competition.
They are always ahead of the curve and are usually first to react to new trends or interpretations in the game, I’m keen to try and pick up on what a few of those trends might be this season.
In comparison, Canberra have named a fairly unfamiliar side boasting a heap of reserve-grade or next-gen talent.
The hype-train left early for Chevy Stewart last year and he’s now behind Kaeo Weekes in the fullback pecking order.
I’m keen to get a better idea of how close he really is to playing regular first-grade football.
Same with Parramatta recruit Ethan Sanders – an U19’s Origin star who we thought might have covered for an injured Jamal Fogarty last year.
In reality, Canberra’s first-choice backline for 2025 is already fairly settled. There’s a little more wiggle room in the pack, though.
Myles Martin was a standout in the junior reps and is a name I’ve had written down for two years now. A Jake Trbojevic-style workhorse, I’m keen to see what he can do under Ricky Stuart.
So too UK import Matty Nicholson – how long do we need to give the 21-year old, 45-gamer or is he NRL ready?
From the limited vision I’ve seen, Nicholson does look suited to the Raiders unconventional systems in attack…
Betting Analysis
Stylistically, these two teams could not be more different.
The Panthers play with the best systems in the NRL, allowing them to rotate out players in key positions and still play a familiar brand of football.
Canberra, meanwhile, are one of the more unconventional attacking teams in the competition – comfortable scoring from anywhere on the field and in any way possible.
They’ll look to drag this into a grind and make it a battle of attrition through the middle where Penrith don’t boast a heap of experience in this one.
I like the Raiders to keep it close (Penrith Panthers win 1-12 @ $3.00) but think Penrith can score early and defend through to full time.
Very keen to see Isaiah Papali’i ($2.75) running off a systems half in Brad Schneider ($4.10) while Casey Maclean ($1.57) could get shorter as a try scorer pick with every game this season.
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Written by Oscar Pannifex | RLWAPPAREL.COM