Return of the Back

Return of the Back

GuyWhoLikesSport

What was old is new once again.

Streamers are giving us ad supported options and looking at bundling together for one combined price like it’s 2004 and Fox 8 Simpsons marathons are all the rage at school.

Autocracies are back in vogue like it’s 1937.

And running backs are important.

I’m not sitting here and telling you that running back is the most important position,
but I do believe that the “running backs don’t matter crowd” was too persuasive as it made its point, and the market overcorrected.

It’s like how we collectively devalued boobs as a desirable trait for women when the Kardashians brought the big derriere into fashion.

But now, like Saquon Barkley completely refashioning the Eagles into an explosive running game rather than a grinding one, Sydney Sweeney has burst onto the scene and we’re back to enjoying the view from the front (credit to me for not embedding pictures into every word).

Now, don’t get me wrong. I still don’t think that a running back should be a foundational piece for a bad team, and it was still dumb of the Giants to draft Barkley with the second overall pick.

It is still a dependent position where injuries do take a toll as players age. But the prevailing wisdom went too far.

The thought that you could drop any back into a situation and they were all interchangeable was fanciful.

Different running backs feel different. Look at the Lions with David Montgomery versus Jahmyr Gibbs. They’re both star players, and the Lions insist they call the game the same way irrespective of which one is in there, but they are different.

Gibbs is so explosive that he gives the impression that he can squirt to the edge and make a house call every time he touches the ball. Montgomery feels like he wants to hurt people every time he gets a tote.

It’s a bit like Gladiator versus Gladiator 2. The movies are virtually indistinguishable plot wise, other than the brief moments where the sequel turns into either Jaws or Planet of the Apes. But the first one is indisputably better at least in part because Russell Crowe just has more gravitas than Paul Mescal.

Even if everything else is the same, having that X-factor raises the ceiling.

I think that is particularly true this season as the cloud coverage, Fangio revolution has truly taken over the league and teams are more willing to roll out lighter boxes and fewer players devoted to stopping the run.

 

It’s a perfect storm for these star backs.

For a team that’s looking to go over the top, a running back has shown itself to be that missing piece this year.

By way of illustration, this season teams are averaging a little under seven first downs on the ground per game and about 11 first downs through the air.

In 2011, the season that the passing boom truly took over the league, teams ran for fewer than 6 first downs on the ground but passed for 12 through the air.

Emphases have flipped, and smart organisations have taken note.

To make my point, I’ll look at three teams and their running backs. There are more examples, like Joe Mixon in Houston or Josh Jacobs in Green Bay, but these three are my favourites.

The first two are success stories: the Ravens with Derrick Henry and the Eagles with Saquon Barkley.

The third is the opposite, as we have seen what can happen when you don’t have an elite running back to put your offence over the top, with Christian McCaffrey and his San Francisco 49ers.

Let’s start with Barkley, who has added a seriously explosive element to the Eagles offence. Last season, the Birds had D’Andre Swift, Jalen Hurts and Kenneth Gainwell get over 50 rushing attempts.

They also had a totally dominant offensive line and were therefore fourth in the league in rushing success rate at 44.5% and fourth in rush EPA/play at -0.006.

This season, they subtracted their all-world centre Jason Kelce but added a superhero at running back and kept the rest of the line and their mobile quarterback in place.

The results? Their rushing success rate is virtually the same at 44.5%.

Their rush EPA is 0.079.

They generate nearly a tenth of a point every time they run the ball, because they are so damn explosive.

In their game against the Rams on Sunday Night Football, the Eagles generated 1.24 points of EPA every time they handed it off on third or fourth down, which is far and away the highest number in the league. More simply, Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns and had 47 yards through the air.

It’s pretty much the same story with Derrick Henry.

Last year, again, Baltimore was efficient running the ball largely because they have Lamar Jackson back there, getting a successful run on 45.7% of rushes and sitting third in EPA/rush with 0.009.

This year, again, with Henry the key addition (not to mention some serious subtractions along the offensive line), Baltimore is about as frequently successful running the ball at 44.9%.

However, again like the Eagles, their EPA is through the roof, generating 0.049 EPA/rush.

For what it’s worth, Lamar is averaging the fewest rush attempts per game this year for his career.

Their numbers are better because of the freak show at running back.

Finally, to make my point in the inverse, let’s look at the 49ers without their superstar Christian McCaffrey. Clearly, a lot has changed for the Niners outside of CMC from this year compared to last year’s absolute death star.

However, the key difference to me has been the lack of a fully healthy McCaffrey for this season.

The 9ers are still a top 10 offence in the NFL by EPA/play and success rate, even with McCaffrey out for most of the year and never healthy.

The biggest area of slippage, however, has been in the red zone where McCaffrey added 21 touchdowns in 2023.

The Niners were elite offensively everywhere, but particularly so in the red zone. In large part this was because of McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel’s shared ability to line up anywhere and confuse defences – not to mention what they could do with the ball in their hands.

In 2023, they led the league in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring 67.2% of the time they reached the red zone. This season they are 17% worst, sitting 25th in the NFL at 50%.

The 49ers make the point most starkly. You can still be a pretty good offence without a great running back. It’s not a necessary piece like the quarterback and the offensive line are.

However, to go over the top in the NFL in 2024, it clearly helps to have a star running back that can change the complexion of the game every time he toes the ball.

That was true of Jim Brown and it’s true today.

What was old is new again.

 

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