The Pacific Championships moves to the final week of the round robin stage with New Zealand and Tonga playing off at Mt Smart for a spot in the final while Papua New Guinea hold their fate in their hands when they host the Cook Islands on Sunday afternoon in Port Moresby.
We have two cracking women’s games too including seeing the Kiwi Ferns take on the Orchids.
Samoa are expected to have too much class for Fiji when the two island nations square off at Mt Smart to open Saturday’s double header. Led by Evania Pelite and with a host of NRLW talent, Samoa downed Tonga 30-16 in the opener and should pump an average Fiji outfit who only snuck home over the Cook Islands despite a hat-trick from Vitalina Naikore.
These teams met last year and Samoa won by 14 and the gap has likely extended the last two months.
Arguably the most anticipated matchup of the Pacific Championships, New Zealand and Tonga meet in Auckland with a spot on the finals waiting and Tonga do look big odds in this.
There is an eerie similarity between the two teams: two strong packs with tryscoring potential outside and concerns around the playmaking.
While the Kiwis have an edge in playmaking with Shaun Johnson at halfback, Tonga do have both a stronger pack and a better bench.
New Zealand have won six of the seven meetings but Tonga did win in 2017 and given how well Tonga had played against Australia, they look a quality play getting more than a converted try.
Eliesa Katoa comes off an elite tryscoring season with 12 tries in 25 games for the Storm this year. Daniel Tupou has 12 tries in 19 appearances for Tonga including nine in his last eight Tests.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Tonga +7.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Tonga Win ($3.00)
- Tryscorer: Eliesa Katoa ($15 First, $3.40 Anytime)
- SGM: Eliesa Katoa Try/Daniel Tupou Try ($7.75)
There is no doubt that New Zealand will win this and win it well but the 57.5 on offer for the line market is way too big, making the Orchids a quality bet.
The last time we saw PNG they were embarrassed 84-0 by Australia but that was on a five-day backup against a much better team on the road.
They return home this week, they have had 16 days to prepare, have made some necessary changes and the Kiwi Ferns are taking it easy resting three of their stars.
Given New Zealand’s ball-playing struggles and the fact they have scored 52 just once in the last decade, the line here looks far too big.
Leianne Tufuga has six tries across the last two seasons and should benefit from the worrying Orchids edges, Mele Hufanga has six tries in eight Tests, Roache has nine tries in 20 NRLW games and Gayle Broughton has six tries in 16 games since joining the Broncos.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Papua New Guinea +57.5 ($1.90)
- Tryscorer: Leianne Tufuga ($7 First, $1.26 Anytime)
- SGM: Leianne Tufuga Try/Mele Hufanga Try/Abigail Roache Try/Gayle Broughton Try ($6.50)
Papua New Guinea are the best bet of the week with this line half of what it should be, the Kumuls are a nation on the up while the Cook Islands could not have looked anymore off last week in their 56-6 defeat to Fiji.
Cook Islands lacked fitness and effort and that won’t play against an enthusiastic PNG team who are well organised, kick well and run hard and that hard running in particular should send the fear of God through the Cook Islands.
PNG are 7-0 all-time against Cook Islands and have won the three meetings in Port Moresby by 28-plus, the Kumuls minus is a chips-in job.
Robert Derby is a tryscoring machine who has four tries in five Tests for his nation, Nene MacDonald looks reborn this year when he was clearly the best on ground against Fiji while he was so good in Super League this season he made the 2024 Dream Team.
Judah Rimbu is a tryscoring machine with 16 tries in 23 games for the Hunters this year.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Papua New Guinea -18.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Papua New Guinea 30+ ($3.10)
- Tryscorer: Robert Derby ($6.50 First, $1.33 Anytime)
- SGM: Robert Derby Try/Nene MacDonald Try/Judah Rimbu Try ($7.25)