With the game line already out to 61.5 points as of Wednesday morning, this one is shaping as a long night for the PNG Orchids.
A brave showing in the PM’s XIII last weekend saw PNG stop the rot in the second half against Australia, conceding just one try after the break to finish up an even 50-0. It’s done little to boost the confidence of the bookies though, who rightly see this only going one way.
Where the men’s PNG side is now unrecognisable from a year or two ago, the Orchids will still be relying on one or two big names to keep them relevant in this one. Skipper Elsie Albert is the single most destructive middle forward in the women’s game but she’ll be double marked all night by the Jillaroos middle. On the edges, right centre Belinda Gwasamun shapes as PNG’s go-to player in attack but she won’t get many cheap looks while lining up against Isabelle Kelly and Julia Robinson.
We won’t get much value in the Jillaroos try scorer markets but I’m happy to have a play on a few forwards given their time on the ball.
The market has found another heavy favourite in Australia on Friday night but I’m not sure this one is as simple as it reads on paper.
While the Kangaroos outfit oozes class and deserves favouritism coming into this one, I love the makeup of this Tongan squad. Tui Lolohea and Lehi Hopoate are on opposite ends of the playing spectrum as veterans and rookies respectively, but every other position across this Tonga side is filled by genuine NRL stars.
A middle rotation featuring Addin Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo, Keaon Koloamatangi and Taniela Paseka gives us a few hints as to how Tonga will play on Friday night (Taniela Paseka in a small minute bench role is a big watch). They profile well to crash the middle and bully a much lighter Kangaroos pack around the ruck, before hitting the edges with powerful, line running backrowers and centres.
In Eliesa Katoa and Haumole Olakau’atu, Tonga boast arguably the two best backrowers in the NRL right now. Their main rival for that title – Angus Crichton – lines up opposite one of them on Friday night, making for one of the many mouth-watering individual matchups to follow;
The running threats of Tom Dearden & Mitch Moses vs the playmaking IQ of Isaiya Katoa.
The work rate of Dylan Edwards vs the moments of brilliance from Hopoate.
The power of Alamoti & Suli v the skill of The Hammer & Turbo.
In complete contrast to Tonga, the Kangaroos have picked a side that will look best when moving the ball.
Pat Carrigan, Cam Murray, Isaah Yeo, Mitch Barnett and Reuben Cotter can all distribute as well as they can cart the ball up, while Harry Grant and Moses’ long passing is a point of difference from dummy-half and second-receiver.
We know the Kangaroos will try to use the ball and move Tonga’s big pack around, but can they first generate the momentum required to play coast-to-coast? There’s a lot of pressure on Lindsay Collins to win his physical contests through the middle, while I think Cam Murray’s play-the-ball speed on an edge will likely be the trigger for an Australian shift to the left-hand side through Tom Dearden
You’d be forgiven for not knowing this game was scheduled for Saturday afternoon (love your work, NRL) but here we are…
Both Tonga and Samoa’s Women’s squads are littered with NRLW talent, reaping the rewards of a rapidly expanding female competition.
Cassey Tohi-Hiku caps off a stellar maiden season in the halves, lining up in the No.7 jumper for Tonga here while another outside back convert – Emmanita Paki – debutises at five-eighth. They’ll have a fair platform to play from early but I’m concerned about this Tongan pack once fatigue sets in.
Opposing them in this one is a stacked Samoan outfit that boasts top-tier NRLW talent in key positions.
Evania Pelite is the most productive fullback in the women’s game and will be in everything for the Samoan side here. Destiny Brill and Sienna Lofipo are both current QLD Maroons reps while Annetta Claudia-Nu’uausala, Laikha Clarke, Monalisa Soliola and Christian Pio round out an all-NRLW starting pack.
There’ll be fireworks early but this is Samoa’s to lose.
This game won’t get the lead-up hype of Australia v Tonga but as someone who is personally invested in the PNG Hunters and Kumuls camps, I’m fizzing for it.
The growth of the international game is no more evident anywhere right now than in the PNG rep scene. Where just a year or two ago the Kumuls side was made up of fringe first-graders across the UK Super League and QLD Cup, now it is littered with genuine international talent.
Lachlan Lam and Kyle Laybutt make up an established halves pairing, Nene Macdonald is a proven campaigner at fullback, QLD Cup Player of the Year Judah Rimbu steps into the starting dummy-half role and the likes of Jacob Alick, Jack de Belin, Robert Derby and Rhys Martin all boast NRL experience.
Those household names will be well supported on Saturday by some lesser knowns; Rodrick Tai is just back from a maiden Super League season under Warrington Head Coach Sam Burgess while Elijah Roltinga, Robert Mathias, Ila Alu and Koso Bandi are all fresh off a stellar year with the PNG Hunters.
While the Fiji Bati side boasts a few more familiar names across the lineup, it’s PNG who have the advantage on paper in my opinion. They have genuine specialist players in all four spine positions (five if you include lock) and have existing combinations in key playmaking roles. While Tui Kamikamica and Viliame Kikau will undoubtedly cause some issues through the middle of the field, Papua New Guinea profile well to soak up the pressure with a more connected defensive system before constructing a few more repeatable scoring actions with the ball.
This matchup has been a battle of attrition in the past but there’s genuine footy IQ in this Kumuls lineup and I think they will manage a bit more with the ball than Fiji, once fatigue sets in.