We’re just 70 minutes away from crowning the 2024 NRLW premiership winner and for those who’ve followed along at home, this season has been a rollercoaster from start to finish.
That volatility is best summed up by two surprise results last week where both Brisbane; the form team of the regular season this year and Newcastle; the back-to-back defending premiers led by the best female rugby league player on the planet were knocked out in the preliminary finals.
A monumental defensive display from Cronulla kept the best attacking team in the competition to nil for the first time in the Broncos history last Sunday while the Roosters bashed and bullied their way through a decimated Knights middle to book their place in the big dance.
Let’s take a look at what needs to go right for both the Sharks and Roosters in the 2024 NRLW Grand Final.
Deciding Factors
It’s easy enough to say that Cronulla must play to their strengths in this one but how that manifests on the field will be the difference.
They don’t have the size through the middle of the field to match it with Easts pack but the Sharks have more than enough aggression and physicality to assume they won’t be bullied out of this contest.
In Holli Wheeler, Brooke Anderson and Ellie Johnston, Cronulla boast one of the better balanced starting middle trios in the NRLW.
Wheeler and Anderson get through a mountain of dirty work around the ruck, winning quick play-the-balls or tipping into spaces for Johnston to run amok.
A big body with nice footwork and offloading ability, Johnston is the trigger for most of the Sharks positive looks in attack.
If she can bust a few tackles and shrink the defensive link in towards the ball, look for Quincy Dodd to either take her chances to run from dummy-half or Georgia Hannaway to have a shot down a skinny left edge.
With just six NRLW appearances under her belt, Hannaway is quickly making a name for herself.
Her ability to count numbers and target the right defender in the line has unlocked the Sharks left edge in attack and helped left centre Tiana Penitani cross for a team-high seven tries this season.
Hannaway’s progression is also helping to take the pressure off Tayla Preston and Emma Tonegato as primary playmakers.
Tonegato’s lack of ballplaying ability has been exposed in recent weeks but she’s still a lethal runner and one of the best support players in the women’s game who demands attention from the defence.
She can still manipulate the line without touching the ball while Hannaway or Preston pull the triggers.
For the Roosters, the return of Tarryn Aiken and Jess Sergis (and the inclusion of an injured Isabelle Kelly) saw them play with far too much momentum last week.
Few teams can go with Easts when they get on a roll through the middle of the field and Aiken relishes looks at a retreating or disrupted defensive line.
Aiken doesn’t build towards attacking movements ahead of time like Preston and Hannaway do for the Sharks, but she doesn’t need to.
With the most dynamic backline and forward pack in the NRLW, Aiken can play eyes up and take her opportunities as they inevitably appear.
The challenge for Easts will be if Cronulla can defend as well as they did last week.
In the Roosters only two losses this season, a desperate defensive system choked and frustrated Easts out of the contest.
They are comfortable in the grind with a lead, but have been guilty of an error when chasing points under pressure and fatigue.
Try Scorer Percentage Plays
It’s difficult to bet on Roosters try scorers given the variety they – and particularly Tarryn Aiken – play with in attack.
Few teams have shared their points across the field as Easts have this year with their left edge (13 tries), right edge (17) and middle (11) all proving genuine avenues to the try line in season 2024.
With that in mind, I’m looking at Jocellyn Kelleher and Olivia Kernick on the Roosters right edge given the repeatable actions they’ve produced this year.
Kelleher is a systems half who can hit spots on the field and straighten the attack for a runner like Aiken or Sam Bremner in the second layer while Kernick runs a mean line off her halfback’s hip.
If the game is in the balance and the Roosters need points, I’m backing one of Kelleher or Kernick to be involved in there somewhere.
- Roosters tips: Olivia Kernick try, Sam Bremner try
Unlike the Roosters, we’ve got a fair idea of where the Sharks points might come from in this one.
If Ellie Johnston isn’t crashing over by the posts herself, she’s usually generating a look for Georgia Hannaway and Tiana Penitani on Cronulla’s left edge.
It’s a favourable matchup for the Sharks down that side of the field on Sunday given the Roosters right edge has conceded a team-high 11 tries this season.
If Hannaway gets the numbers she’s after down that left edge, look for her to play fast and flat to her strike centre or straighten up to create one-on-one situations on the paint.
- Sharks tips: Tiana Penitani try, Cassie Staples try
The Verdict
Easts are heavy favourites here given the star studded line up they will roll out on Sunday afternoon.
They’ve got big game players in key positions across the park and are by far the more experienced outfit.
Everything points to a Roosters win and I’m not bold enough to back against them.
That being said, there’s value in the Sharks’ left edge try scorers (see above) if they can play to their strengths and take their opportunities to keep it close.
- Tips: Sydney Roosters 1-12, Cronulla Sharks (+9.5) line