The biggest day of the Rugby League season is upon us with the 2024 NRL Grand Final featuring not only the two best teams of the season but two of the great teams with Melbourne playing their 11th decider of the last two decades as Penrith become the first team to play in five straight Grand Finals since South Sydney in 1971.
The 2020 Grand Final started this era of Penrith dominance and they will be hoping to atone for their defeat in that one while Melbourne are hoping to bookend the Panthers era with Storm titles.
We have a decider for the ages with the two best teams of the last half-decade squaring off after dominating the 2024 season and the traders can hardly separate them with the current odds at writing have Melbourne marginally favoured.
That is a tad surprising with the top defensive side having a great record in the Grand Final, Penrith are this year’s best defensive side and those defensively oriented teams have won 12 of the last 18 deciders.
Melbourne ranks fourth in defence and just two teams in the last two decades have won ranking third or worse.
Over the last decade, three matches have featured a defensive mismatch with a team ranked three slots or more worse and on all three occasions the best defensive side won by at least 16 points.
The Storm have thrived on the back of some sublime attack but it is hard to see them being able to put enough points on Penrith to beat them.
The Panthers have conceded 12 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 finals matches and they have been here and done this for the last three years.
They are not overawed by big games and their style will be suited to the likely officiating of Ashley Klein, who tends to put his whistle away in big matches.
The loss of Nelson Asofa-Solomona should not be underestimated, he is a huge loss for the Storm, their one genuine enforcer.
The Storm also have the one genuine defensive weakness in the match too with their right defensive edge very concerning.
Penrith have covered nine of 12 when $1.80 or larger while they have covered seven of eight finals, and they look the clear play in the decider.
Centres have scored 14 of the 56 Grand Final tries over the last decade and at least one centre has crossed in nine of the last 10.
Paul Alamoti has been flying this year, is coming off a double and is great value to score in the market.
The man outside him up against the Storm right is Sunia Turuva, who has 16 tries this year and must be included.
Nathan Cleary will create history if he is to win the Clive Churchill Medal, becoming the first player to win it in back-to-back years and becoming the first player to claim three.
He is clearly the man that will likely win it though if the Panthers claim victory, as spine players have won seven straight and with Luai and Kenny playing subservient roles and Dylan Edwards down on form, Cleary is a standout play.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith Win ($1.95)
- Next: Penrith 13+ ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: Paul Alamoti ($19 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Paul Alamoti Try/Sunia Turuva Try ($8.49)
- Clive Churchill Medal: Nathan Cleary ($5.00)
NRLW: Sydney Roosters v Cronulla
The Sydney Roosters go into the NRLW Grand Final heavily favoured when they meet Cronulla after the Sharks shocked the Broncos in the preliminary finals.
The Roosters have been perennially at the top of the table but have fallen badly in the finals but that was not the case this season with a thrashing of the talented Knights.
The Sharks are in just their second season but started the season unbeaten before some late-season stumbles.
These teams have met twice with the Chooks winning 36-12 last year and 40-0 just a month back.
The Roosters are the top defensive team and the third best scoring side while the Sharks rank second in defence and a lowly seventh in scoring.
While the Chooks have been injured most of the season, they are back to near full strength with star Tarryn Aiken back at halfback and Jess Segis starting in the centres.
Olivia Kernick has scored three tries in her last four games and has scored in both her clashes with the Sharks.
Amber Hall is a beast who has five tries in her last seven games and is regularly used close to the line.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Sydney Roosters -9.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Sydney Roosters 13+ ($2.30)
- Tryscorer: Olivia Kernick ($17 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Olivia Kernick Try/Amber Hall Try
State Championship
Following on from Queensland teams winning the first two State Championships in 2014-15, the NSW Cup winner has claimed the most recent five.
They have not only won those five but they have dominated. In four of those wins the NSW team topped 40 points and winning by 20-plus points.
Newtown have six players with top grade experience including the experienced Braden Hamlin-Uele while Norths Devils have five and I expect the Jets to run away with this.
- Best: Newtown -12.5 ($1.90)