After 28 long weeks, we finally bid farewell to the Newcastle Knights and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs in NRL season 2024.
For the Knights and Dogs to both bow out in Week One of the Finals further points towards the closeness of the competition right now.
Newcastle were humbled by Canterbury in both regular season matchups (NRL Round 7: 36-12 & NRL Round 13: 32-2) to suggest a considerable class difference between the two sides this year.
Nevertheless, the Knights did enough against similarly placed teams to sneak into eighth position by season’s end while the Bulldogs were arguably the ‘best of the rest’ all year only to be knocked out by Manly in a thriller on Sunday.
In truth, the Bulldogs and Knights 2024 campaigns could not read more differently.
For all their attacking woes this year (second-worst attack in the NRL), Newcastle’s identity as a hard-working, high-effort club feels fairly well established by now; Adam O’Brien pointed to as much in the post-match last week.
Their pack and backline both perform consistently well enough to keep the Knights in most games while Kalyn Ponga provides the difference; as was the case in NRL Round 28… and as the case has been for a few years now.
As discussed leading into this campaign, we won’t see the consistent best out of Ponga and the Knights attack until we see some development and continuity in the halves around him.
Canterbury on the other hand worked out very, very quickly what works for them in NRL season 2024 (and beyond).
A pack that was criticised for being too small and too shallow ultimately proved key to the Bulldogs defensive improvements this year; their superior mobility allowed the Dogs to work quickly across the field, checking and releasing on the ball carriers to form a connected line from coast to coast.
Working from a solid defensive base, Canterbury began adding layers to their attack as the season progressed.
With another offseason spent building combinations in the spine, it’s fair to expect further improvement from the Bulldogs next year with the ball in hand.
In a season during which Canterbury thoroughly deserved their finals berth while admittedly enjoying a little luck along the way, perhaps it’s fitting that only a miracle Sea Eagles try could ultimately spoil the party.
NRL Finals Week 2 – Deciding Factors
Cronulla
Obliterated through the middle by Melbourne last week, everything that could’ve gone wrong for Cronulla did in Week 1 of the NRL Finals.
No Sharks forward took more than 10 runs or made more than 100 run metres as the Storm dominated possession and field position.
Defending under fatigue, Cronulla’s middle eventually cracked attack under the pressure applied by Harry Grant from behind the ruck while their attack struggled against a set defensive line on the edges.
We saw the best version of this Cronulla Sharks side earlier in the year when they played direct through Blayke Brailey and a dynamic forward rotation.
Big, mobile bodies crashed the ruck and bent the line to generate run opportunities for Brailey before Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall got on the ball on the edges.
Without the necessary ruck speed last week though, Cronulla fell into old habits (Nicho-ball) and played too sideways too early in search for points.
Assuming a response from their middle this week, I like the Sharks to at least match it with North Queensland around the ruck.
From there, the challenge for Cronulla is to get the balance right between Brailey, Hynes and Trindall in attack.
North Queensland
Two late tries to Reuben Cotter and Tom Dearden papered over a hardly-convincing win against Newcastle last week.
Despite enjoying a whopping 55% of the ball and a 400 run metre advantage in yardage, the Cowboys simply gifted the Knights too many chances on Saturday night.
Concentration has been the buzzword of North Queensland’s 2024 campaign, as highlighted by the difference between their first- and second-halves last week.
Third or fourth tackle turnovers near halfway repeatedly killed any momentum the Cowboys generated for themselves in the opening 40 minutes but their second-half was much better, in contrast. Completing their sets allowed North Queensland to get the most out of Jake Clifford’s boot on fifth tackle; a real weapon for the Cowboys in this finals series.
Clifford consistently landed the ball inside the opposition’s 10m line, complementing a yardage game that managed an average 50.2m per set last week.
Provided they can get to their kick cleanly and build pressure throughout the contest, we know North Queensland have the attack to trouble all six remaining teams in the 2024 NRL premiership race.
Easts
The fashion by which Easts were blown out of the water last week by Penrith was ominous.
They simply had no answer for the Panthers in yardage, ultimately finishing up an absurd 600 run metres shy of their opposition in the territory battle.
Anyone who follows rugby league knows what a Nathan Cleary-led side will do to you with 54% of the ball and the lion’s share of field position.
Assuming a response from the Roosters stacked middle rotation this week, there’s a few other adjustments Easts need to make leading into Saturday night.
Without a noted big boot to kick them out of trouble, it’s imperative Luke Keary and Sandon Smith take smart options on fifth tackle.
For Joseph Sua’ali’i to put boot to ball last week is evidence that Easts are exploring different kicking options right now and that variety can be a point of difference over the next few weeks.
Given how Lehi Hopoate (see below) was targeted by Newcastle last week, isolating the young winger again has to be a feature of Sydney’s game plan here.
When and where Joey Manu touches the ball will also be a focus.
If Smith can’t bring him into the attack down the Roosters right edge, we need to see Manu get on the ball around the ruck or drift infield as a second-fullback.
Roaming roles are difficult to plan and set up for, but a Manu highlight reel involvement – particularly in an unexpected area on the field – can be the difference in this one.
Manly-Warringah
Regular readers will know by now that I’m a big Lachlan Croker guy.
He’s a master of the dark arts of dummy-half play and helps to turn half chances into points with the half-a-second he spends on the ball.
Playing behind a thoroughly beaten forward pack last week though, Croker struggled to have an impact in Manly’s attacking systems.
Without Croker jumping out from behind the ruck and manipulating ruck defenders, Daly Cherry-Evans and Luke Brooks didn’t enjoy nearly as many looks at a retreating or thinned defensive line.
Momentum is essential for any positive attacking involvement but Manly rely on it more than most.
Whether shifting out of yardage or playing to a flying Tom Trbojevic one-off the ruck, the Sea Eagles love to throw a one-two punch on the back of a quick play-the-ball.
Dominated early in the count by the Knights last week though, Manly struggled to generate the momentum required to pull the trigger in attack.
How they adjust to protect Lehi Hopoate in exit sets will be a key narrative in this contest given how Manly’s forwards struggled to play from the back foot.
If the Sea Eagles can work out of their own end cleanly enough however, I like the variety of repeatable actions they currently threaten with on either edge.
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com